"Mars... I can't believe I'm back on Mars."
If you're a fan of science fiction, you'll recognize the quote from the Babylon 5 character Michael Garibaldi. It's an inhospitable place. And yet, it's a place where economic activity has been occurring since the Earth Year 2021. Or if you prefer, since the first quarter of Mars Year 36, if we go by a bespoke calendar for the Red Planet determined by Earth astronomers.
We've developed an approach for estimating the value of Mars' Gross Domestic Product, which at this phase of the planet's economic development, consists of rock samples being collected by the Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover on the planet's surface.
Unlike previous science missions to Mars, what makes the collection of these samples qualify as economic activity is the intent to export them to Earth, as the samples are currently being deposited into inventory to support their export.
Those export plans have run into a snag as being too costly, with NASA laying off hundreds of employees at its Jet Propulsion Laboratory because of the cost of its export business plan. During 2024, NASA has been soliciting new ideas for how to make the Martian export economy a reality.
Assuming one or more of these new plans proves to be both viable and affordable, the following chart indicates our range of estimates of Mars' GDP by Martian year and quarter. This data differs from our previous estimates because we've modified the estimates align the dates of the storage dates of Perseverance's rock samples with the Martian calendar:
Should NASA's initiative to export Perseverance's inventoried rock samples be shelved, the Mars' GDP estimates will drop to zero.
Previously on Political Calculations
- Meanwhile, on Mars...
- The Birth of the Martian Economy
- Mars Recovers from First Recessionary Event
- Mars' GDP Triples in Martian 3Q
- The Annual GDP of Mars After One Martian Year
- Plans for Exports from Mars Go Back to the Drawing Board
Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS: Mars. Caltech's 84th Annual Seminar Day Looks into the Body and out to the Stars. [Photo]. 21 May 2021.
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