The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) saw very little change week over week. The index closed the trading week ending on 14 November 2025 at 6,734.11, up less than 0.1% from its previous week's close.

There was more action than that during the week. The index rose early in the week by 1.75% as AI-related firms jumped only to give nearly all of its gain back by the end of the week. The main culprits behind that disappointing development were a number of Federal Reserve officials who signaled on Thursday, 13 November 2025 they are unlikely to cut the Federal Funds Rate again next month. That impacted the direction of stock prices because it prompted investors to revisit their expectations for the mega-caps funding their AI-technology infrastructure plans using debt, several of which represent some of the biggest firms within the S&P 500.

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool absorbed that new information and changed to indicate just a 44% probability of one more quarter point cut to the Federal Funds Rate in 2025. In 2026, the FedWatch tool anticipates better than 50% probabilities for quarter point rate cuts on 28 January (2026-Q1), 17 June (2026-Q1), and 16 September (2026-Q3). The potential timing of all these projected rate cuts remains very fluid with substantial changes in expectations from week to week.

Meanwhile, the latest update of the alternative futures chart shows investors focused most their forward-looking attention on the current quarter of 2025-Q4 in the latter part of the week, which is consistent with the now open question of whether or not the Fed will cut rates in December 2025.

Here are the week's market-moving headlines:

Monday, 10 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• At China's largest import expo, US exhibitors hopeful worst of trade war is over
• US container imports fall in October amid tariff driven caution
• China suspends port fees on US-linked ships for a year
• US Senate advances bill to end federal shutdown
• Democrats Concede Shutdown Fight Without Health Care Win in Hand
• US fourth-quarter GDP could be negative if shutdown drags on, White House economic adviser says
• US surpasses 10,000 flight delays Sunday in worst day of shutdown
• Oil settles higher as tight fuel markets offset crude supply concerns
• Fed minions thinking about how to set US interest rates:
• Fed's Daly says policymakers need to keep an open mind about further cuts
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's car sales unexpectedly contract in October after eight-month expansion
• China's internet firms cautiously revive lending as Beijing pushes consumer loans
• Bigger stimulus developing in Japan as BOJ minions told by top politicians to hold off December rate hike, even though BOJ minions really want one:
• Japan's stimulus plan to urge BOJ focus on boosting growth, draft outline shows
• BOJ should avoid December rate hike, says Takaichi's economic adviser
• BOJ saw growing case for near-term rate hike, October meeting summary shows
• ECB minions say Eurozone interest rates are right where they want them, Eurozone banks subsidizing "greener" companies with lower interest rates:
• ECB's rates at right level barring deviations, ECB VP says
• Euro zone banks tilting loan pricing towards greener firms, ECB blog says
• Wall Street rallies as investors await the end of the U.S. government shutdown
• Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge
• Health insurers slide as US reaches government shutdown deal without extending subsidies
• Gold climbs nearly 3% to two-week peak as soft economic data cements rate cut bets

Tuesday, 11 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• SoftBank unloads entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8B
• SoftBank's $5.8 billion Nvidia stake sale stirs fresh AI bubble fears
• Trump calls 50-year mortgages no 'big deal' as right-wing conservatives balk
• US Senate passes bill to end government shutdown, sends to House
• Oil up as investors balance sanctions risks, oversupply worries
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese goods dumping started before tariffs, ECB study finds
• China to provide new investment opportunities to US companies
• China's central bank to maintain accommodative policy as challenges persist
• Japan's new boss wants "wage-driven" inflation:
• Japan prime minister 'strongly hopes' BOJ achieves wage-driven inflation
• Wall Street closed mixed as the government shutdown resolution appears close
• Dow notches record high close, traders bet on end to government shutdown
• Gold gives up gains as traders weigh imminent end to U.S. government shutdown

Wednesday, 12 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US lost jobs through late October, new private-sector data shows
• China's soybean glut could defeat US export hopes after trade thaw
• Oil prices fall, markets look to US government reopening
• After the bell....
• House passes bill to end historic government shutdown, sending measure to Trump
• President Trump signs government funding bill, ending shutdown after a record 43-day disruption for country
• Fed minions say they're reluctant to cut rates as they're expected to in December 2025, taking actions to fend off liquidity problems:
• Fed's Bostic favors no change in rates while inflation remains greater risk
• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic: ‘I see little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026’
• Bostic announces retirement amid Trump push for more influence over Fed
• US Supreme Court to hear Trump's bid to fire Fed's Lisa Cook on January 21
• Fed split deepens as Collins says she would hesitate to support another cut
• Fed to cut rates again in December on weakening job market, say most economists
• Fed may soon start buying bonds to manage market liquidity, Williams says
• Fed's Waller: streamlined payment accounts to be operational by 4Q 2026
• New York Fed's Perli encourages use of Standing Repo Facility to deal with liquidity needs
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's Singles' Day shopping festival winds down with 'muted' sentiment
• US House report accuses China of minerals market interference
• Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:
• New reflationist members at Japan's top economic panel push for big stimulus
• ECB minions thinking Eurozone inflation risk is low:
• Euro zone inflation risks may be tilted to upside, Schnabel argues
• Dow finishes at all-time high as government shutdown end nears; Nasdaq lags amid struggling tech trade

Thursday, 13 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices steady after steep losses in previous session
• US corporate bankruptcies set to hit 15-year high amid credit jitters, S&P data shows
• Fed's December rate cut looks increasingly like a toss-up
• Odds of December Fed rate cut sink amid hawkish commentary, market selloff
• Fed policy needs to stay 'somewhat restrictive', Cleveland Fed's Hammack says
• Fed's Kashkari wanted rate-cut pause in October, reports Bloomberg News
• Fed's Daly open-minded on December rate cut amid balanced risks
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's October new home prices fall at fastest pace in a year
• https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-october-new-bank-loans-fall-sharply-missing-forecast-2025-11-13/
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan with prices, BOJ minions want wage inflation:
• Japan's wholesale prices rise more than expected on sticky food inflation
• Bank of Japan aims for wage-driven inflation, aligns with government view
• U.S. stocks sink as post-shutdown optimism fades, rate cut odds fall
• Nasdaq tumbles and these 10 stocks are driving the drop
• Wall Street tumbles as Nvidia slides, investors fret that Fed may slow rate cuts

Friday, 14 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack
• Trump cuts tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount
• More Fed minions signal reluctance to cut rates in December, another minion revealed to have ethics problem that led to their unexpected exit:
• As Fed hawks press their case, traders bet against December cut
• Fed's Logan: Would be hard to support December rate cut
• Former Fed Governor Kugler's exit came amid forbidden trading activity
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's economy jolted by weakest factory output, retail sales growth in over a year
• China vows to boost consumption, better balance demand and supply
• Wall Street ends mixed, Nasdaq survives from selloff amid valuation worries
• Wall Street ends mixed; traders look to Nvidia report

The end of the federal government shutdown had very little impact on stock prices. That's an expected outcome because most political events that don't involve changes in tax rates tend to contribute little more than noise to markets. That doesn't mean it won't have an economic impact, because of its length and because it began to disrupt air transportation with air traffic controllers not showing up for work at major airports after a month of going unpaid.

We don't know yet how big that impact might be. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 was unchanged at +4.0%, as many economic data reports remain on hold with the government slowly resuming operations after the Senate Democrats' failed shutdown. The BEA's official estimates of GDP in 2025-Q3 remain on hold as well. And for that matter, 2025-Q4, which is when any actual economic contraction related to the shutdown occurred.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon showing Federal Reserve officials in suits carrying football goalposts labeled 'RATE CUT' away from a Wall Street bull wearing a football uniform and preparing to kick a field goal, who looks frustrated as the goalposts are being moved further away"

Imagine you're in charge of placing security cameras inside a gallery filled with valuable objects. Your boss is willing to pay to put in as many cameras at it will take to protect the gallery's contents, provided you meet two conditions:

1. The cameras must collectively provide 100% visual coverage of the entire area of the gallery.
2. You have to determine the minimum number of cameras that will be needed to do the job.

Believe it or not, this is a famous 50-year old geometry problem that's known as the art gallery problem. In the following 50-minute video, CC Academy describes how the problem can be solved using graph theory for any strangely shaped floorplan:

Kit Yates discusses why the recent heist of the French royal jewels from the Louvre Museum in Paris brings home the importance of this geometry problem:

At a hearing in front of the French Senate in the immediate aftermath of the robbery, Laurence des Cars, the director of the world famous museum, admitted that the museum had "failed to protect" the crown jewels. She admitted that the only camera covering the balcony the thieves used was facing the wrong way and a preliminary report revealed one in three rooms in the Denon wing where the thieves struck had no security cameras. More generally Des Cars acknowledged that cuts in surveillance and security staff had left the museum vulnerable and insisted that the Louvre's security system must be reinforced to "look everywhere".

Alarms at the museum apparently sounded as they should, according to the French culture ministry. Yet it is the third high profile theft from French museums in two months, which have left the ministry implementing new security plans across France.

As they should, if for no other reason than because their security scheme has been shown to have gaping holes that thieves an easily drive a Böcker Agilo truck-mounted moving lift through.

But more to the point, had those responsible for overseeing the Louvre's security solved their specific version of the art gallery problem, the thieves' plans might have been thwarted. Yates concisely explains how to quickly determine how many cameras you might need using only geometric principles:

The answer, it turns out, depends on the number of corners (or, as mathematicians call them, "vertices"), as there will be as many walls as there are corners in a room. Some simple division helps us work out how many cameras are needed.

By dividing the number of corners in a room by three, that will tell us how many cameras are needed to cover it, assuming they have a full 360 degree field of view....

This even works if the number of corners isn't neatly divisible by three. For a 20-sided gallery, for example, the answer works out at six and two thirds. In these cases you can take the whole number – so we'd never need more than six cameras in a 20-sided room.

Yates continues by getting into the graph theory that tells where those 360-degree view cameras can then be optimally placed.

In 1978 Steve Fisk, a mathematics professor at Bowdoin college in Maine, US, came up with a proof – considered one of the most elegant in all of mathematics – of this lower limit on the number of cameras needed.

His strategy was to divide the gallery up into triangles (check out the left image of the figure below). He then proved that you can pick just three colours – say red, yellow and blue – and assign a different colour to the corners of each triangle. This would mean that every triangle in your gallery has a different colour in its three corners (See the right image of the figure below for an example). This is known as "three-colouring" the corners.

Triangles are one of those "convex" polygons we mentioned earlier, so a camera positioned at any corner (or indeed anywhere in the triangle) can see every point in that shape. Every triangle has corners with each of the three colours. That means you can pick just one of the colours and place cameras at those positions. Those cameras will be able to see every part of every triangle, and hence every part of the gallery. But here's the best part.

The beauty of Fisk's proof is you can just choose the colour with the fewest dots, and you'll still cover the whole gallery. In the 15-sided shape above, by choosing the red dots, we can get away with only four cameras.

What are the chances that all of France's art gallery security problems are now homework assignments for the country's undergraduate math students taking courses in either geometry or graph theory?

Image credit: Art Gallery Problem sample with 4 cameras by Rocchini on Wikimedia Commons Creative Commons CC BY 3.0 Attribution 3.0 Unported Deed.

The seven companies that make up the S&P 500's "Magnificent Seven" stocks have been on the rise for some time.

Two years ago, they combined to account for 30% of the total valuation of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). And to be sure, several of the members of this elite group of high-flying companies were already among the biggest components of the index before they became collectively known as the "Magnificent 7". The weren't known by that label until 2023, when Bank of American analyst Michael Hartnett first deployed the phrase with respect to "a basket of seven stocks: Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA)".

Since then, these mega-cap stocks have earned the moniker by growing even larger. Through October 2025, they have collectively grown to account for 37% of the entire market capitalization of the S&P 500.

Pretty amazing stuff when you realize that Tesla wasn't even a publicly-traded company until 2010 and Nvidia's explosive growth because of its Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabling computer chip technology began in 2023.

The following pair of charts illustrate the growth of the Magnificent Seven stocks over the past two years. The first chart shows how their value has increased and driven the growth of the S&P 500 index itself. The second chart shows how their collective share of the S&P 500 index has likewise grown.

They're able to drive the total valuation of the S&P 500 because their market capitalizations make up such a large share of the index. In today's market, what happens to the S&P 500 index is almost all about what's happening with the Magnificent Seven stocks.

How long might that last? Time will tell, but it helps put today's record concentration of market capitalization by seven companies into some context, the last time the S&P 500 index (or rather, its predecessor index, the S&P 90) had such a large percentage of its total value represented by such a small number of stocks was back in 1932.

References

Follow the links for the tickers of the Magnificent Seven stocks we posted in the article to our sources for their market capitalization. Meanwhile, here's our source for the S&P 500's monthly market capitalization:

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 3 November 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A picture of a large electronic screen showing the tickers NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, and TSLA, and the words 'MAGNIFICENT 7'".

According to Standard & Poor, through October, there have been 145 dividend decreases announced by publicly traded U.S. firms during 2025.

But which companies have reduced their dividend payouts to their shareholding owners? Which industries have been most affected by the kinds of adverse business conditions that led the boards of directors at these companies to cut their dividends?

We've sampled 77 dividend decrease announcements made in the period from January 2025 through October 2025 to find out. Here's that list, in which clicking the company's name will take you to our source for the dividend decrease announcement and provide more information about it. We're also presenting a bonus section that includes firms that declared they will pay lower dividends than they did in their previous dividend payout during the first seven days of November 2025....

January 2025

• MV Oil Trust (NYSE: MVO)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• VOC Energy Trust (NYSE: VOC)
• PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE: PRT)
• Dorchester Minerals (NASDAQ: DMLP)

February 2025

• Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust (NYSE: CHKR)
• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• Ares Commercial Real Estate (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: ACRE)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• Marine Petroleum Trust (NASDAQ: MARPS)
• Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK)
• Xerox (NYSE: XRX)
• Blooming' Brands (Restaurants) (NASDAQ: BLMN)

March 2025

• Ready Capital (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: RC)
• Orion Office REIT (NYSE: ONL)
• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• Kohl's (Retail) (NYSE: KSS)
• Armada Hoffler Properties (REIT-Diversified) (NYSE: AHH)
• PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE: PRT)
• Invesco Mortgage Capital (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: IVR)

April 2025

• Global Net Lease (REIT-Office) (NYSE: GNL)
• Easterly Government (REIT-Office) (NYSE: DEA)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE: PRT)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• Dorchester Minerals (NASDAQ: DMLP)

May 2025

• Organon (NYSE: OGN)
• Wendy's (Restaurants) (NASDAQ: WEN)
• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• Chemours (NYSE: CC)
• TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG)
• Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC)
• Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK)
• Sitio Royalties (NYSE: STR)
• Pangaea Logistics (NASDAQ: PANL)
• Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT)
• Crown Castle International (REIT-Specialty) (NYSE: CCI)
• Xerox (NYSE: XRX)
• Global Medical REIT (REIT-Healthcare) (NYSE: GMRE)

June 2025

• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• AFC Gamma REIT-Specialty (NASDAQ: AFCG)
• Two Harbors Investment (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: TWO)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT)

July 2025

• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• MV Oil Trust (NYSE: MVO)
• Seven Hills Realty Trust (NASDAQ: SEVN)
• United-Guardian (NASDAQ: UG)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• VOC Energy Trust (NYSE: VOC)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE: PRT)
• First Bancorp (NASDAQ: FBNC)
• Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM)
• Dow (NYSE: DOW)
• AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB)
• Dorchester Minerals (NASDAQ: DMLP)
• Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP)
• Westlake Chemical Partners (NYSE: WLKP)
• Tronox (NYSE: TROX)
• Sturm Ruger (NYSE: RGR)

August 2025

• Taitron Components (NASDAQ: TAIT)
• Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust (NYSE: CHKR)
• TXO Partners (NYSE: TXO)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• Marine Petroleum Trust (NASDAQ: MARPS)
• PermRock Royalty Trust (NYSE: PRT)
• Two Harbors Investment (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: TWO)
• Fortive (NYSE: FTV)
• Guess (NYSE: GES)

September 2025

• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• Boston Properties (REIT-Office) (NYSE: BXP)
• Cherry Hill Mortgage (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: CHMI)
• Lument Finance Trust (REIT-Mortgage) (NASDAQ: LFT)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• Brandywine Realty Trust (REIT-Office) (NASDAQ: BDN)

October 2025

• Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM)
• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)

November 2025 (through 7 November 2025)

• TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG)
• Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust (NYSE: CHKR)
• DineEquity (Restaurants) (NYSE: DIN)
• DuPont (NYSE: DD)
• Huntsman (NYSE: HUN)
• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• Dorchester Minerals (NASDAQ: DMLP)

Some quick notes. First, there are a number of monthly dividend payers included in this sampling that pay variable dividends. These are primarily oil and gas royalty trusts, which pay distributions that are directly tied to their previous month's revenues and earnings and which fluctuate with the price of oil. When you see a lot of these firms in a month, it usually means the oil and gas industry experienced some distress in the form of lower oil prices in the previous month. Several of these firms made multiple appearances in our sampling during 2025.

Other firms pay fixed dividends, where the firms' board of directors deliberately acted to change their dividend policy. That's a painful act for all involved: shareholders, managers, and the board members at these companies because their dividend decrease is often accompanied by a plunge in their stock price. That's so painful they typically seek to avoid cutting their dividends unless they see no way around it because the outlook for the companies has changed for the worse.

2025 provided a great example of that kind of pain and reaction from an unexpected dividend cut in the story of Organon, which "blindsided" investors by slashing their dividend by 92% on 1 May 2025. Since then the company's stock price has continued to flounder in no small part because its now-former CEO was engaged in an "improper" practice that artificially inflated the pharmaceutical firm's earnings.

Other companies provided information that gave ample warning to investors long before they finally cut their dividend. One example is chemical industry giant Dow, which halved its dividend on 24 July 2025. The firm's divided cut came after several quarters of a worsening business outlook in which investors expecting the firm would be forced to cut its dividend steadily sent its stock price lower.

Speaking of which, another chemical industry firm, LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB) has seen its stock price follow a similar downward trajectory that is still continuing as its business outlook worsened and as the sustainability of its dividend, which has not yet been cut, has increasingly come into question. This is a company to pay attention to pay attention to for that reason in the months ahead.

We'll close with a chart showing which industries have experienced the most dividend decreases during the first ten months of 2025:

2025 has been a year in which oil and gas prices have fallen, which accounts for the oil and gas industry's leading position in the chart. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) claimed second place, though much of this industry's distress carried over from 2024 as the Biden-Harris era's elevated mortgage and interest rates continued into 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A realistic image of a dividend cheque from 'DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANY' being cut in half by a pair of scissors, symbolizing dividend cuts or financial loss, with a neutral background".

Revelio Lab's non-government dependent jobs data for October 2025 reports the seasonally-adjusted total nonfarm employment level in the U.S. is 159,238,994. This figure represents a 9,057 net loss in jobs from September 2025.

The firm's detailed employment by sector data indicates the biggest contributor to the net loss in jobs was reduction in the number of government employees compared to the previous month. Overall, for the sixteen sectors tracked by Revelio Labs, nine were negative and seven were positive, with most showing relatively small changes in October 2025. Here are the five sectors that saw the biggest month-over-month changes:

• Government: 23,279,400 (-22,200)
• Retail Trade: 15,410,900 (-8,500)
• Manufacturing: 12,784,400 (-5,200)
• Financial Activities: 9,397,800 (+9,600)
• Education and Health Services: 26,929,800 (+22,000)

We've updated our pair of charts tracking Revelio Lab's seasonally-adjusted nonfarm employment data from January 2022 through October 2025, which we've compared against available data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which hasn't reported any jobs data past August 2025 because of the continuing federal government shutdown.

The chart also reveals how Revelio Lab's data was revised over this period with its latest report. We observe the firm's estimates increased by a small amount over the entire period covered by our chart.

We've also indicated the BLS' total nonfarm employment estimates for the period, which are quite different in the period from January 2022 up to January 2025. The BLS' employment estimates have deteriorated in quality in recent years because the size of its sampling of U.S. employers plunged during the 2020's coronavirus pandemic and has not recovered, giving the BLS a much less complete picture of the nation's employment situation than it had before.

With enough Democratic party senators voting to break their party's filibuster against a Republican bill that would fund the U.S. government's operations, an end to the shutdown now appears to be on track. However, we think it will likely be another month before the BLS' employment estimates for the months they missed reporting might become available. After they do become available, we'll do one last recap of the total nonfarm employment data before resuming our series on teen employment trends.

References

Revelio Labs. Total Nonfarm Employment National. [CSV Data]. 2 November 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total Nonfarm Employment. Current Employment Statistics - CES. [Online database]. Last Updated 5 September 2025.

Image credit: Woman Filling Out a Job Application by amtec_photos on Wikimedia Commons Creative Commons CC by-SA 2.0 Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic Deed.