As expected, the probability of a U.S. economic recession began to diminish rapidly after the Federal Reserve implemented a half-point rate cut at its mid-September 2024 meetings.
The change follows the recession odds setting a "triple-top" pattern, in which the probability of recession peaked for the third time after breaching a 70% threshold. The probability of recession is now rapidly falling.
That downward direction is likely to continue as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a quarter point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate at the conclusion of its Federal Open Market Committee meetings on Thursday, 7 November 2024. Those meetings start on 6 November 2024, which is why we're providing this update at this time. We're showing a portion of the analysis Fed officials have available as they weigh how to set the level of the Federal Funds Rate.
The following chart tracking the probability of recession since 30 April 1983, the period from July 2024 through September 2025 represents the most likely period in which the NBER will say the U.S. economy peaked before beginning a period of contraction. And even though the probability of recession someday being found to have started sometime in the next twelve months is now falling, those odds remain elevated.
The current probability of a recession being officially determined to have begun between 1 November 2024 and 1 November 2025 is 64.8%. The featured chart shows that probability 'pushed out' to the end of the period for which the recession forecast applies.
Analyst's Notes
The recession probability presented here is based on the Federal Reserve Board's yield curve-based recession forecasting model, which factors in the one-quarter average spread between the 10-year and 3-month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries and the corresponding one-quarter average level of the Federal Funds Rate. If you'd like to do that math using the latest data available to anticipate where the Recession Probability Track is heading, we have provided a tool to make it easy to do.
We will continue following the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee's meeting schedule in providing updates for the Recession Probability Track until the U.S. Treasury yield curve is no longer inverted and the future recession odds retreat below a 20% threshold. We're following how this forecasting method performs.
For the latest updates of the U.S. Recession Probability Track, follow this link!
Previously on Political Calculations
We started this new recession watch series on 18 October 2022, coinciding with the inversion of the 10-Year and 3-Month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries. Here are all the posts-to-date on that topic in reverse chronological order, including this one....
- U.S. Recession Odds Fall with Fed Rate Cut, But Are Still Elevated
- Triple Top Pattern Locking In for U.S. Recession Probability
- Triple Top Developing for U.S. Recession Probability
- U.S. Probability of Recession in Next Twelve Months Hovers Near 70%
- Recession Probability Falls After Hitting Double-Top
- U.S. Recession Probability Nears a Double-Top
- Probability of U.S. Recession Resurges to Nearly 75%
- U.S. Recession Odds Recede to Two Out of Three Chance in 2024
- U.S. Recession Probability Continues Receding on All Hallow's Eve
- U.S. Recession Probability Starts to Recede
- Probability of Recession Starting in Next 12 Months Breaches 80%
- U.S. Recession Probability on Track to Rise Past 80%
- U.S. Recession Probability Reaches 67%
- U.S. Recession Probability Shoots Over 50% on Way to 60%
- Recession Probability Nearing 50%
- Recession Probability Ratchets Up to Better Than 1-in-6
- U.S. Recession Odds Rise Above 1-in-10
- The Return of the Recession Probability Track
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official skiing down a mountain. The mountain has three peaks".
Labels: recession forecast
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