Unexpectedly Intriguing!
13 June 2023
Tachometer Gauge Level approaching 80 by OpenClipart-Vectors via Pixabay - https://pixabay.com/vectors/tachometer-speedometer-gauge-meter-153634/

The latest update to the Recession Probability Track shows how it has progressed deeper into a higher probability of recession since our last update a little over six weeks ago.

Recession Probability Track, 20 January 2021 through 12 June 2023

The chart shows the current probability of a recession being officially determined to have begun between 12 June 2023 and 12 June 2024 is 78.5%. If the Fed follows through on pausing the series of rate hikes it began in March 2022, which we'll know within the next two days, that lack of action won't stop the projected recession probability from rising. Even without a rate hike in June 2023, the U.S. Recession Probability Track will still breach the 80% threshold before the end of the month. That's a few weeks earlier than we had projected in our previous update.

Looking past that point, Federal Reserve officials have been signaling they'd like to resume hiking rates after they wrap up their next two-day meeting on 27 July 2023, which has become the expectation. We'll revisit how the recession probability projections change before that next meeting.

Analyst's Notes

The Recession Probability Track is based on Jonathan Wright's yield curve-based recession forecasting model, which factors in the one-quarter average spread between the 10-year and 3-month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries and the corresponding one-quarter average level of the Federal Funds Rate. If you'd like to do that math using the latest data available to anticipate where the Recession Probability Track is heading, we have a very popular tool to do the math.

For the latest updates of the U.S. Recession Probability Track, follow this link!

Previously on Political Calculations

We started this new recession watch series on 18 October 2022, coinciding with the inversion of the 10-Year and 3-Month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries. Here are all the posts-to-date on that topic in reverse chronological order, including this one....

Image credit: Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay.


About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Indices, Futures, and Bonds

Closing values for previous trading day.

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified