Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in April 2023 is $81,087, a decrease of $253 (or 0.3%) from the initial estimate of $81,340 in March 2023.
Update 31 October 2023: We have revised our estimate of median household income for this month based on new information from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2022 and revisions to income data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that were released in September 2023. Please follow this link to see how much. If you're interested, we've provided more information about what has changed and why we think its significant.
The decrease comes as the result of a substantial negative revision to aggregate wage and salary data covering the period from October 2022 through March 2023. Here's how that data changed compared to what the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a month earlier:
- Sep-2022: $11,450.6 billion - No change (not revised).
- Oct-2022: $11,420.4 billion - $ 86.4 billion decrease (-0.75%)
- Nov-2022: $11,408.7 billion - $144.8 billion decrease (-1.25%)
- Dec-2022: $11,412.7 billion - $175.0 billion decrease (-1.51%)
- Jan-2023: $11,516.1 billion - $177.7 billion decrease (-1.52%)
- Feb-2023: $11,541.8 billion - $185.0 billion decrease (-1.58%)
- Mar-2023: $11,573.4 billion - $192.2 billion decrease (-1.63%)
We'll have more commentary regarding the downward revision in the Analyst's Notes. The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through April 2023 The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant April 2023 U.S. dollars.
Overall, we observe median household income in still increasing, but at a slower pace than it was up through September 2022.
Analyst's Notes
The effects of the negative revision are more easily seen in our chart tracking the trends for average personal income during the Biden era. Fortunately, because we had just featured this chart in last month's edition of the median household income series, we can use animation to visualize the impact of the changes. In the following animated chart, focus on the nominal income estimates (shown in red) for the months following September 2022:
Following the revision, we observe the average nominal income earned by individuals declined during the fourth quarter of 2022. In 2023, that average personal earned income has rebounded, but appears to be growing more slowly than it did in the period from December 2021 through September 2022.
After adjusting for the effect of inflation, average individual earned income has been shrinking since peaking in September 2022. As of April 2023's initial estimate, it has fallen by one percent in real terms.
For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 April 2023. Accessed: 28 April 2023.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 April 2023. Accessed: 28 April 2023.
U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 12 April 2023. Accessed: 12 April 2023.
Image credit: Photo by Justice Thompson on Unsplash.
Labels: median household income
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