The U.S. new home market may have grown for the first time since July 2024.
The data for March 2024 is preliminary and will be revised several times before being finalized over the next several months. That said, our first estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold in the U.S. during March 2025 is $27.87 billion. If it holds, it will represent the first month-over-month increase in new home sales since they peaked in July 2024 at a finalized figure of $28.90 billion.
Revisions can be significant. Our initial estimate of the market capitalization of new homes sold in July 2024 was $31.30 billion, which ultimately proved to be overstated by over 7.6%. In the months since we first reported that first estimate, the number of new homes sold reported by the U.S. Census Bureau has been revised substantially lower, accounting for most of the downward change, with much smaller downward revisions in the average new home price accounting for the balance.
The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through March 2025.
Falling-to-flat new home sales trend:
Slow downtrend for home prices:
The big question is will this mark the beginning of the end of what has been a downward trend? While it's too early to make that determination at this time, we think the downward trajectory was interrupted by mortgage rates dropping to their lowest levels in months during March 2025, improving their affordability and boosting sales. In recent weeks however, mortgage rates have increased, which suggests the downward trend for new home sales has not yet been broken.
We'll take a closer look at how the relative affordability of new homes for the typical American household changed in March 2025 sometime early next month.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 April 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 April 2025.
Image Credit: Photo by Jennifer Kalenberg on Unsplash.
Labels: real estate
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