Thanksgiving has a defining theme in 2025. The population of turkeys raised on U.S. farms shrank from the previous year. The size of those live turkeys also shrank. Completing the trifecta, the Farm Bureau Federation confirms the price of a Thanksgiving dinner has shrunk as well, led lower by a big drop in the price of turkeys!
That cost had peaked at $64.05 for a 10-item menu in 2022 thanks to the runaway inflation unleashed by the Biden-Harris administration. Since then, the cost has dropped each year, falling to $61.17 in 2023 and to $58.08 in 2024. This year, that cost dropped 2.9% to $55.18.
The Farm Bureau describes how a drop in the price of turkeys contributed to 2025's lower Thanksgiving dinner cost:
The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – dramatically decreased in price, which helped bring down the overall cost of dinner. The average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey is $21.50. That is $1.34 per pound, down more than 16% from last year. While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring Thanksgiving deals and attempting to draw consumer demand back to turkey, leading to lower retail prices for a holiday bird....
“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said AFBF Economist Faith Parum, Ph.D. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
Here's the Farm Bureau's infographic indicating each of the menu items for their Thanksgiving dinner and the average prices they found them when they shopped for them during the first week of November 2025:
Although turkeys are much less costly for American consumers, they found both increases and decreases in the prices of several items compared to last year.
Half of the ingredients in the survey declined in price, including dinner rolls and stuffing. Low wheat prices helped bring down the cost of items requiring flour.
Items like fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes increased – a veggie tray is up more than 61% and sweet potatoes are up 37%. Natural disasters partly contributed to the increase. For example, North Carolina, which is the largest grower of the nation’s sweet potatoes, suffered hurricane damage. Additionally, fresh produce prices tend to be highly volatile, and even modest supply-chain disruptions, from weather, labor shortages, transportation delays or regional production setbacks, can trigger sharp, short-term spikes in prices. The continued shortage of farmworkers and rapidly increasing farm wages also played a role in rising produce costs. It’s important to note that fresh vegetables and potatoes are traditionally low-cost items, so an increase of just a few cents can dramatically affect the cost change percentage year-to-year.
Here are the average prices of the Farm Bureau's Thanksgiving dinner menu items with their percentage and dollar changes in cost from 2024 to 2025:
- 16-pound turkey: $21.50 or $1.34 per pound (down 16.3%, or -$4.17 for the whole turkey)
- 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.71 (down 9%, or -$0.37)
- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.37 (down .8%, or -$0.03)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.87 (up 3.2%, or +$0.06)
- 1 pound of frozen peas: $2.03 (up 17.2%, or +$0.30)
- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.56 (down 14.6%, or -$0.60)
- Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.61 (down 4.7%, or -$0.14)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.16 (up .1%, or +$0.01)
- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.73 (up 16.3%, or +$0.52)
- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $4.00 (up 37%, or +$1.07)
- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.36 (up 61.3%, or +$0.52)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.28 (down 2.8%, or -$0.07)
Overall, the $55.18 cost of a Thanksgiving dinner in 2025 is $8.87 or about 14% lower than in 2022.
References
Farm Bureau Federation. Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines. [Online article]. 19 November 2025.
Farm Bureau Federation. Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines – Remains Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels. [Online article]. 20 November 2024.
Labels: food, thanksgiving
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