Unexpectedly Intriguing!
05 December 2025
Big Data by Learntek on Flickr - https://www.flickr.com/photos/153724200@N07/27774351928/

According to Revelio Labs' public labor statistics data, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the U.S. fell by in November 2025. The firm's estimate of nonfarm employment is 159,231,610 for the month, down about 9,000 from its revised estimate of 159,240,592 for October 2025. Compared to November 2024 however, the estimate for November 2025 is up nearly 208,000.

Revelio Labs' data indicates total nonfarm employment peaked in April 2025 at 195,280,995 and has largely been slightly lower to flat in the period since. November 2025's estimate is within 0.03% of that peak.

Meanwhile, the BLS has released employment data through September 2025, putting its initial estimate of seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment at 159,626,000 for the month, which represents a peak in its data series. This value is up 119,000 from the BLS' revised estimate of 159,507,000 for August 2025 and is almost 370,000 higher than Revelio Labs' estimate for September 2025.

Before we go any further, Revelio Labs' appears to have executed a major revision of its historical data, with large negative changes to its oldest data that tapers off to very small downward changes for the most recent months. The following chart captures both the BLS' and Revelio Lab's latest estimates of seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment over the period from January 2022 through November 2025 and all Revelio Labs' estimates released in October, November, and December 2025.

U.S. Total Nonfarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted), January 2022 - November 2025

Analyst's Notes

At this writing, Revelio Labs' has not produced any statement to account for its large downward revisions in its oldest data, which are substantial. In our featured chart, the firm's November 2025 estimate for January 2022 was reduced by over 1.6 million from its October 2025 estimate. Even so, the firm's estimate for January 2022 is over 1.9 million higher than the BLS' estimate for the month.

Without an explanation, we caution against using Revelio Labs' historical data in other analyses. We do observe that Revelio Labs' data does generally match the direction of employment changes in the BLS' historical series over the period covered in our chart, so its still likely useful for divining that aspect of how the total nonfarm employment level is changing over time.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates it will next release its employment situation data on Tuesday, 16 December 2025, which will include newly released estimates for both October and November 2025.

References

Revelio Labs. Total Nonfarm Employment National. [CSV Data]. 4 December 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total Nonfarm Employment. Current Employment Statistics - CES. [Online database]. Last Updated 20 November 2025.

Image credit: Big Data by Learntek on Flickr. Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Deed. Public Domain.

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