Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total valuation of U.S. new home sales is $28.10 billion for November 2025 and $30.36 billion for December 2025. Initial sales and price data for both months recently became available after having been delayed because of the Senate Democrats' 43-day-long government shutdown fiasco during the last quarter of 2025.
The initial estimates of the number of new home sales reported for November and December 2025 is 53,000 and 57,000 for each month respectively, which indicate growth in the new home market as the year came to a close. Average new home prices are likewise higher than was recorded a year earlier at $530,200 and $532,600 for both months.
Taking basic seasonality into account, the trailing twelve month average of new home sales was $28.28 billion in November and $28.20 billion in December 2025. These figures indicate the new home market continued slowed after peaking at the revised estimates of $29.17 billion in September 2025 and the $28.85 billion estimated for October 2025.
These figures represent time-shifted, partial trailing twelve month averages. The initial estimate for any given month is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's estimated annualized number of new home sales multiplied by their average price for that month, which is averaged with the data for the preceding six months. These total valuation (or new home market capitalization) estimates are then updated as each new month's data is added to it, until it covers a full twelve months worth of data, and as older data is revised, which continues until that data is finalized some 10 months after the month for which the data applies.
The benefit of this approach is that it 'centers' the trailing average in something closer to real time, which makes it easier to tell when changes in trend take place. The disadvantage is that the latest data is incomplete. It will be subject to revision during the next nine months as new estimates are incorporated and older estimates are revised. The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through December 2025.
New home sales:
Average new home prices:
Here's how Realtor.com is reporting the year end of new home sales for 2025:
New-home sales jumped in November before retreating slightly in December to finish 2025 with an estimated 679,000 new homes sold, 1.1% fewer than in 2024. The momentum gained at the end of an otherwise slow year is an encouraging sign for new-home sales in 2026, as buyers are responding to lower mortgage rates and deciding to pull the trigger on newly built homes....
Though the annual sales totals for 2025 came in a bit lower than for 2024, the new-home market has some momentum and balance going into 2026 as demand for homes is heating up. It is still a good time to buy a new-construction home, but buyers may face a bit more competition than they did for most of 2025, and builders may find themselves in a position where they need more inventory to meet demand.
Since the end of 2025, mortgage rates have continued falling and dropped below the six percent level at the end of February 2026. The Census Bureau will report its new home sales data for January 2026 on 19 March 2026, which we'll cover sometime during the week following its release.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 August 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 20 February 2026.
Image credit: A hand reaching for a pink house in front of a row of houses photo by Jakub Żerdzicki on Unsplash.
Labels: real estate
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