Social Security's trustees released their 2026 report on what they expect for the future of the program. As with just about every one of their reports over the last decade, they foresee big benefit cuts when the program's Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is depleted.

The main changes in this year's report affect the timing of when the trust fund runs out of money and how big the benefit cuts will be after it does. The year of reckoning moved up to the end of 2032 from sometime in 2033, which if they divert money from the program's Disability Insurance (DI) program to it, could last until 2034.

Meanwhile, the magnitude of retirement benefit cuts when the trust fund no longer has any legal claim to money it "loaned" to the U.S. government while it had a surplus will be less than previously projected. Those cuts still aren't small - anyone receiving Social Security benefits will take a 22% hit to them. If they divert the DI trust fund money to keep the retirement benefits train going however, the cuts will be reduced to 17%.

Here is the trustees' official grim outlook:

• The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected in last year’s report. Upon reserve depletion in 2032, projected income is sufficient to pay 78 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 62 percent by 2100.
• DI Trust Fund reserves are projected to remain positive throughout the 75-year projection period, as was projected in last year’s report.
• The combined OASDI fund is projected to become depleted in the third quarter of 2034, the same quarter as in last year’s report. Upon reserve depletion in 2034, projected income is sufficient to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 65 percent by 2100.

Social Security has been draining the OASI Trust Fund since 2010. The 2026 Trustees report indicates how big that deficit has been in every year from 2010 through 2025. We tallied up those deficits to find out how much the OASI Trust Fund has shrunk over those years, which we visualized in the following chart:

Through 2025, the OASI Trust Fund has cumulatively shrunk by $1.321 trillion. That's a lot of money, especially when you consider the U.S. government never had the cash to pay back the money it "owes to itself". Instead, it borrowed it, exchanging the debt it supposedly owed to itself for debt it owes to the public.

That raises a question. How much of the total U.S. national debt has gone from being counted as money the government owes to itself to instead be money the government owes to the public, which includes everyone from individual Americans who bought a savings bond to institutions like banks and insurance companies and foreign entities that loan money to the U.S. government by the truckload?

The answer to that question is visually presented in the next chart:

When you hear about Social Security's Trust Fund as being little more than an "accounting fiction", this transformation of debt from money the government owes to itself to be money the U.S. government owes to the public is what they mean. The trust fund debt is unavoidably becoming a general obligation of U.S. taxpayers, which is what it always was and is what it could only ever be.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of Uncle Sam pulling money from one of his pockets to put into another pocket while reaching behind himself to borrow money from a banker". From the looks of things, he's gotten himself really twisted up!

June 2026 saw strong, across-the-board improvement in the outlook for the quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) over our snapshot of where they stood just a month earlier.

Impressively, the current quarter of 2026-Q2 saw the biggest month-over-month gain. Here is how the outlook for it and all the other quarters for which we have S&P 500 future dividends data changed since our 15 May 2026 snapshot:

• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.90 to $20.72 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.28 to $21.22 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.57 to $21.40 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.36 to $22.57 per share
• 2027-Q2: Increase of $0.37 to $21.56 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 May 2026 to 15 June 2026.

Dividend futures data represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.

The S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of the 502 stocks for the largest U.S.-based publicly traded companies in the U.S. stock market according to their market capitalization that meet S&P Global's criteria for inclusion in the index. There are more than 500 stocks in the index because it also includes multiple classes of shares issued by Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL and GOOG), Fox (Nasdaq: FOX and FOXA), and Newscorp (Nasdaq: NWS and NWSA).

As of 15 June 2026, 409 of these stocks pay dividends, covering about 81.5% of all the stocks in the index. Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q2 began on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and will officially end on this Friday, 19 June 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it counts as a future quarter all the way up to its end.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose a little over 0.6% over where it ended the previous week to close out the trading week ending on Friday, 12 June 2026 at 7,431.46.

That lackluster result occurred despite the biggest ever Initial Public Offering (IPO) in U.S. stock market history: the $2 trillion launch of SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX). The company best known for its reusable rocket launching technology and its satellite-based Starlink communication/Internet network did not qualify for inclusion into the S&P 500. S&P Global rejected changes in the index' rules that would have allowed SpaceX to be included less than a year after it began trading. The decision means that other megacap IPOs currently waiting in the wings for AI technology giants Anthropic and OpenAI will also face at least a year-long exclusion from the index before they might join the index.

Without the SpaceX IPO, the biggest market moving news of the week came during the trading day on Thursday, 11 June 2026, when President Donald Trump announced the U.S. and Iran were near an agreement to proceed with a negotiated end of the Iran war geopolitical event. Stock prices jumped on the news, more than reversing the previous day's decline when it looked military action might resume.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart finds the S&P 500 continuing to track along with the trajectory associated with investors focusing on the current quarter of 2026-Q2, just as they were a week earlier. This focus coincides with an intense amount of attention on the direction the Fed will be taking in setting short-term interest rates at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in the next week:

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool foresees a quarter point increase in the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 3.75-4.00% on 9 December (2026-Q4). In 2027, the tool now gives a greater than 50% probability of no additional rate hikes at each of the planned meeting dates of the Fed's interest rate setting Open Market Committee, with a 0% probability of any cuts and up to a 30% probability of an additional quarter point rate hike on 28 April (2027-Q2).

Here are the trading week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 8 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Yields mixed after jobs data lifts Fed hike odds
• Oil prices settle $1 higher after Iran and Israel say they have halted attacks
• OPEC+ approves fourth oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure
• US airlines' fuel costs soared in April to $6.5 billion
• High fuel costs to trigger airline failures and consolidation, industry chief says
• Soaring fertilizer prices dim Brazilian farmers' edge over US rivals
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China car sales downturn extends into May as VW tests EV revamp
• Chinese refiners delay projects with Middle East oil supply disrupted
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan's economy cools on weak capex in first quarter, revised data shows
• Japanese investors make biggest foreign stock exit in five years in May
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end up as tech, chipmakers rebound
• Wall Street closed on a mixed note, led by strength in tech

Tuesday, 9 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US trade deficit narrows in April amid surging exports
• Record petroleum exports help to shrink US trade deficit in April
• Oil falls as investors await clarity after Iran-Israel halt attacks
• Oil inventories headed toward multi-decade lows, US EIA warns
• US existing home sales increase more than expected in May
• Fed minions expected to hold US interest rates steady in 2026:
• Fed to hold rates this year, cut calls fade as war inflation persists, economists say
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China prepares $295 billion plan to fund nationwide AI buildout, Bloomberg News reports
• China rides AI wave as exports surge past forecast
• BOJ minions thinking about loosening monetary policy a little while tightening it more directly:
• BOJ to consider pausing bond taper next fiscal year, sources say
• Weak yen, hawkish Fed adds to pressure on BOJ to accelerate hikes
• S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as tech selling resumes, Trump vows to react to downed US helicopter
• Wall Street ended mostly lower after a volatile trading session

Wednesday, 10 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US consumer inflation vaults above 4% as Iran war boosts energy prices
• VIEW CPI rises at fastest rate in three years but meets market expectations
• Energy Costs Drove 60% of Inflation in May
• May 2026 CPI: The 4.2% Headline Is Energy. The Core Is Cooling.
• Oil falls as traders digest escalation in US-Iran strikes
• Once an Arab oil embargo victim, US becomes world's top oil exporter
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China Inc deploys 'quiet' layoffs as Beijing promotes AI adoption
• China's factory-gate inflation at nearly four-year high in May
• BOJ minions set to hike Japan's interest rates, will do it without Chief BOJ minion:
• BOJ set to raise key rate to 1.0% in June, 1.25% by year-end
• Bank of Japan governor Ueda hospitalised, will miss June meeting
• ECB minions ditch perfect monetary policy for "insurance hike":
• ECB set for 'insurance hike' as Iran war fans euro zone inflation
• Wall Street indexes fall more than 1%, hit by tech, Iran war worries
• Wall Street ends in the red as investors focus on Middle East tensions
• There is a ‘tectonic shift’ away from the traditional 60/40 allocation – Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Thursday, 11 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. effective tariff rate fell to 6.7% in April
• US producer prices increase more than expected in May amid jump in energy costs
• High US mortgage rates to keep housing market subdued: Reuters poll
• Oil falls to near two-month lows as Trump calls off threatened strikes on Iran
• Former Fed minion calls for rate hike while Fed minions are out on week-long news blackout ahead of next week's FOMC meeting:
• The Fed should hike rates; policy is ‘too stimulative’ – Fmr. Kansas City Fed president Hoenig
• BOJ minions excited to hike Japan's interest rates to highest they've been in 31 years:
• Bank of Japan set to hike rates to 31-year high, drop hawkish signals
• ECB minions hike Eurozone interest rates, calling it 'insurance'; exhausted from the effort, thinking about taking a break for a while:
• ECB raises interest rates in long-telegraphed move
• Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
• Europe’s “insurance” hike
• ECB governors eye July pause after first hike, sources says
• Wall Street ended higher as Trump signals a diplomatic path and suspends Iran strikes
• Wall Street indexes jump, Trump says strikes against Iran canceled

Friday, 12 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• SpaceX value surges past $2 trillion in historic IPO debut
• SpaceX by the numbers: Six charts map businesses driving the largest ever IPO
• Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire
• The IPO leaderboard
• Oil slides on Gulf peace hopes, all eyes on SpaceX debut
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's new loans miss forecasts in May as property slump curbs demand
• China's top coal region to expand coal-to-oil output in energy security push
• BOJ minions see Japan's core inflation come in below their target, will proceed to hike Japan's interest rates anyway:
• Japan core inflation seen below BOJ target for fourth month in May: Reuters poll
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• German government spending only thing preventing GDP fall, Bundesbank says
• S&P 500 posts modest weekly gains as sector rotation favors materials and consumer staples
• Wall Street finished higher as SpaceX's debut grabbed investor attention
• Tech sector delivers one of the best earnings quarters since 2001
• Private credit dividends look less secure as cash coverage thins
• Gold's record rally falters as bulls run into Fed rate expectations, stronger dollar

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 rose to +3.3%, bouncing back from the +3.0% it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching a Starship 3 launch in which the rocket is labeled as 'SPACEX IPO' and the bull says 'THAT'S A LOT BIGGER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE!'"

If you look at the back of a box of Kellogg's Frosted Flakes Glazed Donut Holes cereal, you'll find a startling claim:

Matt Parker investigated and came to three remarkable conclusions:

1. Kellogg's has a typo in their formula for the surface area of a donut.
2. He is the kind of guy who will pay someone to record of a video of himself eating a bowl of cereal."
3. Despite the typo, Kellogg's is right!

All this and more is revealed in the following video of Parker's investigation:

Kellogg's claim would not be true if the thickness of the glaze layer was the same between the spherical donut hole and toroidal donut geometries. But the reason Kellogg's claim is able to hold is because they really loaded up the amount of glaze onto their cereal-based donut hole structure, making its coating much thicker than what can be achieved by applying the same mass of sugary glaze spread out over the larger surface area of a donut (or in math terms, a "torus"). In effect, they maxxed out the ratio of glaze to cereal.

But the more amazing thing is that Kellogg's has not fixed the typo in the formula for the surface area of a donut-shaped object, even though is has been printed on every box of its Glazed Donut Holes cereals for more than a year after it was first reported!

The pace at which human carbon dioxide emissions are accumulating in the Earth's air fell in May 2026, continuing a long downward trend that began in January 2025. The trailing 12-month average of the year-over-year change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration was 2.22 parts per million.

That's a reduction of 1.36 parts per million, or about 38%, from the modern-era record of 3.57 parts per million recorded in December 2024. The change coincided with a sharp slowdown in China's economic output following boosted production aimed at beating expanded tariffs and trade restrictions on the nation's exports. In recent months, newer geopolitical events like the Iran war and its disruption of oil shipping through the Hormuz Strait has also contributed to the decline.

The main impact of Iran war's disruption of oil shipping has increased pressures on nations whose supply of oil originates from Iran and other nations in the affected region. For China, much of that impact has been mitigated by tapping the nation's strategic oil reserves and shifting to alternative energy production methods to offset it. China's lowered economic output from the global tariff war has also reduced its demand for energy.

Similar factors have affected other nations whose oil supplies have been disrupted by the geopolitical event, though their CO₂ emissions are considerably smaller than those of China.

The slowdown is evident in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data because China is, by a very wide margin, the world's leading producer of carbon dioxide emissions. The following chart shows how this measure has changed from January 2000 through May 2026:

The following tool gives an estimate of how much economic activity in worldwide (and predominantly in China) has declined since December 2024. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version.

The tool's estimates are based on Jenny Cederborg's and Sara Snöbohm's 2016 paper. In their research, they investigated whether there is a relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions and identified a positive correlation between CO₂ emissions and GDP per capita. They found "CO₂ emissions increase by approximately 0.0002 [metric] tons (0.2 kg) per capita when GDP per capita increase by 1 dollar, holding all other variables constant".

That relationship doesn't take the effects of inflation into account, so the tool's results based upon it are likely understating the real reduction in global GDP associated with the reduced economic activity indicated by the reduction in CO₂ emissions.

That said, global GDP for 2024 is estimated to be around $110 trillion, which means the indicated global GDP reduction of $45.2 trillion since December 2024 is substantial.

Update 12 June 2026

Late breaking headline on global GDP growth: "World Bank cuts global growth outlook to 2.5%, warns of drop to 1.3% if war fallout spreads to markets".

If only there was some indicator to see how the Earth's economy is doing in near-real time!

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. Updated 5 June 2026.

Cederborg, Jenny and Snöbohm, Sara. Is there a relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions? Semantic Scholar. [PDF Document]. 2016.

Image credit: Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta. Prompt: "Digital art concept of carbon dioxide emissions being used to measure economic growth."