We've run up to the last weekend before the holidays arrive next week. If you haven't yet completed your shopping for gifts, you only have a handful of days left before time runs out.

We were surprised at how many shoppers took advantage of our suggestions for last-minute gifts in 2024. So much so we've asked the Inventions in Everything team to assemble a list of the kinds of gifts they would seriously give to people they know.

Better still, most of the items on the 2025 list can be acquired for about $25 U.S. dollars or less through Amazon, which means you can shop affordably while avoiding the crush of shoppers you will otherwise face at this late date. Here are the suggestions the IIE team recommends:

Bits and Pieces 10-Step Puzzle Box

Giving gift cards, cash, or lottery tickets has become a staple for the last-minute gift shopper. If that's you, you can separate yourself from the pack of all the other like-minded last-minute gift shoppers by packaging your gift in Bits and Pieces' Japanese puzzle box. This particular model requires ten steps for the gift recipient to manipulate the attractive box to receive it.

To be sure, this is really a gift for people who like puzzles and will be happier with the box than they will likely be with whatever gift card you might have placed inside it. While there are several other puzzle boxes out there, the design of this model is what caught our attention. It would not look out of place when kept on a dresser, which gives it an edge over the more rustic-style of puzzle boxes.

Contigo Luxe Stainless Steel Thermal Travel Mug

Thermal travel mugs offer the benefit of being both common and practical. What makes this model stand apart from all the other vacuum-insulated stainless steel travel mugs on the market is its "killer app" feature: it is extremely easy to clean because it is top-rack dishwasher safe!

We're featuring the stainless steel model of Contigo's Luxe series as a last-minute gift idea because we think it's likely the most durable version of the product. There are two other versions that add black or blue coatings, but which consumers who have bought these mugs report can chip. The pure stainless steel version however doesn't have that as a potential drawback.

QAQcew Magnetic Fidget Pen

This is the kind of gift that makes sense for those who have take notes and who fidget a lot. QAQcew's Magnetic Fidget Pens are unique writing implements that can be broken apart into segments, which can be reconnected into a variety of figures with magnets, where what you can make with the segments of each is only limited by your imagination. These pens come in black, blue, purple, and rainbow-hued models, which are also compact enough to work as stocking stuffers.

Escape Aromatics National Park Candles

It's a pretty good bet that at least one of the people you're shopping for are the kind of people who really enjoy candles and their aromas. If they also happen to enjoy the great outdoors and the kind of wilderness that can only be found in America's national parks, Escape Aromatics' soy wax candles incorporate scents that might make them think of the natural wonders of Yosemite, Dry Tortugas, Redwoods, Glacier, Joshua Tree, or Hawai'i Volcanoes.

Before we go any further, we should note that these candles are not meant to represent what these places might smell like if they were burning. The Yosemite model, for example, has the following aromatic profile:

• TOP NOTES: Pine and Green Citrus
• MID NOTES: Jasmine, Rose, and Earthy notes
• BASE NOTES: Vanilla, Cedarwood, and Sweet Spice

If your gift recipient is the kind of person who wants to smell what things would smell like if they're burning, we have an alternative selection that might work for you....

KFC Firelog

This is another gift whose main selling point is the aromas it creates. However, this is a gift that only makes sense if your target recipient has a wood-burning fireplace, also enjoys fried chicken and has a real sense of humor. If they do, this product is "designed to make your home smell like fried chicken and feel as warm as an Extra Crispy drumstick at the bottom of a KFC bucket of fried chicken".

If your potential gift recipient lacks any of these three characteristics, you'll be better off giving them any of the other last-minute gift ideas we've featured. A quick note of warning: this particular gift item is selling for $39.99, making it the most costly on this list.

Previously on Political Calculations

All of the items we featured on our 2024 last minute Xmas gift ideas list are still available and, most surprisingly, the Pudlicki Car Cleaning Gel was the most popular among readers.

Meanwhile, the gift ideas for math lovers we presented back on Black Friday are all still out there. Happy shopping!

Image credit: Two black and white boxes with gold bows photo by Javier Miranda on Unsplash.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics continued playing catch up with shutdown delayed employment statistics. The BLS has released its employment situation data through November 2025. While that gets them fully caught up, it also means they only reported the data they collected for November 2025 because they didn't collect any data for October.

The bad news is the employment situation for U.S. teens declined after its September 2025 rebound. That pain was highly concentrated among younger teens (Age 16 and 17), which saw their numbers in the workforce drop by 179,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1,936,000 in November 2025. This is similar to how this part of the teen job scene looked in May 2025.

By contrast, the number of older teens dipped by just 2,000 over the same two-month period, with 3,472,000 counted as having jobs in November 2025.

The following chart shows these changes along with the seasonally-adjusted total Age 16-19 employment level:

In this chart, the number of employed Age 16-17 teens and Age 18-19 teens doesn't add up to the combined Age 16-19 figure. That's because each demographic gets its own seasonal adjustment. If you want numbers that do add up within a small margin of error, you'll want to access the BLS' nonseasonally adjusted employment figures.

Sharp-eyed readers will also note the chart is showing an estimate for each teen population group for October 2025. These figures are simply the average (or midpoint) of the recorded employment levels for September and November 2025, which we think are reasonable estimates of what would have been recorded for October 2025 had the household employment survey been performed. This survey is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which was also shuttered by the shutdown because its funding was not authorized by the U.S. Congress.

Overall, November's teen employment figures are within the range they have been during 2025.

Reference

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 16 December 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a high school student who is having trouble finding a job". We tweaked the image so the Help Wanted sign indicates 'MUST BE 18 OR OLDER'. With the jobs number for younger teens being similar to May 2025's figures, we're re-using our cartoon from that month since it's on point.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends through 2026 has improved in the month since we last presented our previous snapshot of their future. For the most part, they have improved with the 2026-Q1 looking to show the biggest jump.

Before we go any farther, we're referring to future quarters as they apply to dividend futures contracts, not regular calendar quarters! For dividend futures contracts, 2026-Q1 begins on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on the third Friday of March 2026.

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's dividends has changed in the past month for the final quarter of 2025 and the upcoming four quarters of 2026:

• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.03, declining to $19.91 per share
• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.57, rising to $21.46 per share
• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.01, rising to $19.74 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.14, rising to $20.01 per share
• 2026-Q4: No change, holding at $19.79 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 14 November 2025 to 15 December 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

This is our last update for 2025, our next snapshot will be taken in mid-January 2026. Because it will soon be very relevant, be sure to read the "More About Dividend Futures Data" section, which explains why the quarterly dividends Standard and Poor will report for the S&P 500 are different from dividend futures data. We anticipate S&P will report the index' quarterly dividends for the calendar quarter of 2025-Q4 early in 2026.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on this Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2026-Q1 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 20 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Delayed trade data has started to flow out from the U.S. Census Bureau. More than a month behind schedule, the latest data on trade between the U.S. and China is for September 2025. As expected, the total value of goods exchanged between the two nations slipped for the second month, falling from $33.4 billion in the previous month to $31.8 billion.

That's a net figure. U.S. exports to China were up from August 2025's level, rising $108 million to $8.38 billion. That gain was offset by a much larger decline in the value of goods exported from China to the U.S. in September, which fell by $1.71 billion to $23.41 billion.

The trailing twelve month average, which smooths out annual seasonality in the trade data, declined to $40.0 billion in September 2025. This figure is $9.6 billion, or 19.6%, below our counterfactual projection of what the level of trade between the U.S. and China would have been during the month in the absence of the global tariff war, had trade between the nations continued growing at the rate it was between March 2024 and March 2025.

The following chart presents the monthly data for the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China along with its trailing twelve month average in the period from January 2017 through September 2025.

The U.S. and China struck a new truce in the tariff war on 1 November 2025. This new deal lowered tariffs considerably more than their earlier 28 June deal, but we won't see its effect in the data until November 2025's data becomes available early in 2026.

Because of that deal's timing, we anticipate another negative month or two for U.S.-China trade data when October 2025's data is finally reported. Though it has not yet been scheduled, we anticipate that data will become available in the first weeks of January 2026. It's possible it may be reported along with the data for November 2026 as the Census Bureau gets fully caught up.

Despite lacking the full detail of the U.S.' import/export data, we do know that China reported a more-than-$1 trillion surplus in its trade with the world in in year-to-date. This record level was achieved because of China's falling level of trade with the U.S. and because China's domestic economy has struggled to grow during 2025.

That's possible because the ongoing negative impact of the U.S.-China tariff war and China's lack of domestic demand has resulted in Chinese producers having more goods available to export elsewhere. Which they have, because Chinese producers are facing a cash crunch and need the money.

Their actions are becoming a flashpoint in the regions where China is shipping its excess production. In particular, the European Union is threatening to impose new retaliatory tariffs against China's exporters, on top of its recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles that have been flooding into the EU.

China's economic situation has worsened enough that China's official government data can no longer conceal it. Here are headlines from 14 December 2025:

• China's Economy Is Deteriorating on Several Fronts
• China's economy stalls in November as calls grow for reform
• Xi Blasts "Reckless" Projects Exaggerating Growth After China Reveals Dismal Macro Data For November

How the imbalances that resulted in these headlines get settled will be one of the bigger economic themes of 2026. Stay tuned!

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 19 November 2025.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon showing Chinese container ships labeled 'Made in China' being diverted with large arrows away from the United States and toward other regions such as Europe, Africa, and South America". Sadly, in the original image produced by this prompt, Copilot didn't produce anything that looked like the actual continent of South America, oddly choosing to instead rename sub-Saharan Africa as "South America". The image still sort-of worked for our editorial purposes after several minor fixes, but we miss South America and urge Copilot to both acknowledge its existence and give the continent its due.

After the Fed acted to cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, 10 December 2025, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) went on to strike a new record high of 6,901.00 on Thursday, 11 December 2025. But the index retreated the next day as new fears arose about the outlook for earnings of firms making big AI-technology investments. The S&P 500 ultimately ended down 0.6% from the previous week's close, settling at 6,827.41 by the close of trading on Friday, 12 December 2025.

After the Fed reduced the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.50-3.75%, investors had no reason to continue focusing on the current quarter of 2025-Q4. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool outlook for 2026 indicates investors anticipate future quarter point rate cuts on 18 March (2026-Q1) and 29 July (2026-Q3), with no other rate cuts projected beyond that date.

While these changes suggest investors would shift their focus to either 2026-Q1 or 2026-Q3 as they set current day stock prices, the trajectory of the S&P 500 in the past week instead indicates they are focusing on the distant future quarter of 2026-Q2 in setting current day stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows that shift with the trajectory of the S&P 500 pacing the dividend futures-based model's projections of what the level of the S&P 500 would be expected if investors are focusing on this future quarter.

Here are the market-moving headlines investors absorbed during the week that was.

Monday, 8 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls amid ongoing Ukraine talks, ahead of expected US interest rate cut
• US container imports drop 7.8% in November amid China demand slump, Descartes Systems says
• Fed minions to get new leadership:
• Fed could find itself in a bind as it sets the stage for Powell's successor
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's car sales extend decline in November in biggest drop in 10 months
• Macron Warns EU May Hit China With Tariffs Over Trade Surplus
• China's exports top expectations on strong sales to non-US markets
• China's Trade Surplus Tops $1tn Mark As Exports Rebound Despite Tariffs
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan's third-quarter GDP contraction worsens on weak capex
• Japan's October real wages fall for 10th month despite upbeat nominal pay
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• German corporate bankruptcies to surge to a decade high in 2025
• ECB minions thinking about maybe hiking Eurozone interest rates:
• ECB must be vigilant about some upside risks to inflation, Kazimir says
• ECB's next move may be a hike, but not anytime soon, Schnabel tells Bloomberg News
• Wall Street finished in the red ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting
• US stocks end lower as investors wait for Fed rate decision

Tuesday, 9 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US bank executives say AI will boost productivity, cut jobs
• US container imports drop 7.8% in November amid China demand slump, Descartes Systems says
• US job openings rise slightly after surging in September; fewer workers quitting their jobs
• Oil settles down 1%, focus on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Fed
• Fed minions to deliver a lot of whinging after getting new leadership:
• Fed faces turbulent 2026 as Powell's term ends, independence tested
• Investors warm up for long spell of discordant Fed
• Trump says support for interest rate cuts is key test for Fed chair nominee
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Beijing Data Blackout Raising Alarm Bells About China's Economy
• Chief BOJ minion developing skill for understatement:
• BOJ Governor Ueda says rises in long-term interest rates 'somewhat rapid'
• ECB minions thinking about doing QE "passively" and making banking regulations "simpler", but not "looser":
• Will ECB's 'good place' turn into passive easing?
• Exclusive: ECB backs simpler, not looser, bank rules, sources say
• S&P 500 edges down as investors await Fed rate decision
• Wall Street ended mixed in a muted session ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision

Wednesday, 10 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil steadies ahead of Ukraine peace talks and Fed interest rate decision
• US labor cost growth slows in third quarter as labor market conditions soften
• US home price rises to stay modest as mortgage rates stick
• Headlines before the Fed minions' rate cut:
• https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-expected-cut-rates-may-signal-coming-pause-2025-12-10/
• Wall St futures slip ahead of Fed meeting, 2026 cuts in doubt
• Headlines after the Fed minions' rate cut:
• Divided Fed lowers rates, signals pause and one cut next year as growth rebounds
• Fed rate decision sees most dissents since September 2019
• Fed's Powell says rate policy well positioned, future of policy not on pre-set course
• Fed says it will start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's deflationary strains persist even as consumer inflation hits 21-month high
• EU firms in China accelerating supply chain diversification, report finds
• IMF urges China to take the 'brave choice': curb exports, boost consumption
• BOJ minions expected by economists to deliver more rate hikes, bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• BOJ to hike rates to 0.75% in Dec, 1.0% by next Sept, majority of economists say
• Japan Might Be A Bomb Ready To Explode-- Why You Should Care
• ECB minions see growth ahead, expected to do nothing with Eurozone interest rates:
• ECB may lift growth outlook again, Lagarde says
• ECB to stay on hold through end of 2026 on expected stable economic outlook: Reuters poll
• Wall Street indexes rally after Fed cuts interest rates
• Dow reaches 48K level for the first time since Nov. after FOMC cuts 25 bps

Thursday, 11 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil retreats as investors' focus on Ukraine, US fuel supplies
• OPEC data indicate close oil supply-demand balance in 2026, no glut
• US September trade deficit lowest in more than five years as goods exports soar
• Major automakers say China poses 'clear and present threat' to US auto industry
• Fed minions gearing up for relaunch of Quantitative Easing:
• New York Fed desk plans to conduct purchases worth over $54 billion over next month
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China promises fiscal boost next year, recognises 'prominent' imbalance
• BOJ minions not sure they should act to stave off higher interest rates in Japan:
• Bank of Japan reluctant to intervene on rising yields, sources say
• S&P and Dow end at record levels, Oracle pulls Nasdaq lower
• S&P 500 notches first record high close since October
• Oracle forecasts miss Wall Street targets while spending rises

Friday, 12 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil inches lower on oversupply concerns, on track for weekly loss
• Fed minions worry about inflation, say rate cut was right move:
• Fed dissenters cite inflation risk in votes against rate cut
• Fed's Hammack would prefer tighter policy given too high inflation
• Fed's Paulson says monetary policy still working to cool inflation
• Fed's Daly says this week's rate cut was right move for Fed
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's November new loans miss forecast as housing slump persists
• Focus: China's small bank mergers shrink sector but raise financial risks
• BOJ minions really thinking about going forward with plan to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Exclusive: BOJ to pledge more rate hikes at next week's policy meeting
• Japan's core inflation likely held at 3.0% in November: Reuters poll
• ECB minions hear about 'geopolitical risk impact' and want to know more about it as EU minions want to give Russian money frozen in EU banks to Ukraine:
• ECB to quiz 110 banks on geopolitical risk impact
• Explainer: How does the EU want to use Russia's frozen assets for Ukraine?
• Wall Street ends lower; fears of AI bubble and inflation send investors away
• Nasdaq, S&P 500 end week with losses as AI trade tumbles led by Broadcom guidance fears
• Broadcom stock falls as management warns of margin pressures

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 ticked up from +3.5% last week to +3.6%. The tool won't shift to forecast 2025-Q4's GDP until 23 December 2025, which coincides with when the BEA's official initial estimate of GDP for 2025-Q3 will be released.

With the approaching holidays, we're anticipating little new market-moving news coming out after this upcoming week. Monday, 22 December 2025 will mark the final edition of our S&P 500 chaos series for 2025, with the next edition not arriving until Monday, 5 January 2026 after we come back from our annual weeklong hiatus.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear sitting in front of a fireplace drinking hot cocoa to celebrate the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates". We then ran second prompt to "Draw a cartoon thought bubble showing a balloon being popped by a pin", the result of which we added to the originally generated cartoon to show what the Wall Street bear is happy about.