In 1950, all of the gold that had ever been mined, panned, found, or otherwise extracted from the Earth added up to 72,088 metric tons. With a global population of 2.493 billion, dividing all that gold up equally among every person alive would have given each almost half an ounce of the precious metal in that year.

Almost seventy five years later, the Earth's population has grown to exceed 8.162 billion. When it comes to dividing up all the gold that has ever been produced in the world, which of the following statements do you suppose is true?

1. Every person alive today would have less gold than their 1950 counterpart.
2. Every person alive today would have as much gold as their 1950 counterpart.
3. Every person alive today would have more gold than their 1950 counterpart.

Now, we're going to give you some more information that may or may not be a red herring in helping you determine which statement is true. In 1950, the U.S. market price of an ounce of gold was $35. On 13 June 2025, the market price of gold set a new record high of $3,432.56 per ounce, nearly 100 times more than it was in 1950. Which by the time you read this, may be a record that has been broken. Or perhaps not.

Ready for the answer? Through the end of 2024, all the gold ever extracted from the Earth in human history is estimated to total 216,265 metric tons. If all that gold was equally divided among each of the world's 8.162 billion people, each would have 0.935 ounces of gold. While still shy of a full ounce, every person alive today would still have about 87% more gold than their 1950 counterpart.

All that business about what the price of gold was in 1950 was and what it has increased to be was indeed a red herring for answering this question. It was intended to trick you into thinking about how prices change because of supply and demand, where today's higher price make sense if the relative supply of gold per person decreased.

But that's not what happened. The supply of gold per person increased and so did its price in U.S. dollars.

That can happen in at least two ways. First, the relative demand for gold has increased. Second, the supply of U.S. dollars, or perhaps more accurately, all money on Earth that people might use to buy gold, has risen faster than the supply of gold. If it were just U.S. dollars chasing after gold, $35 in 1950 dollars is about the same as $473 dollars in mid-2025 after inflation.

That would mean almost $3,000 of the increase has come about because some people around the world today have put a much higher demand on having gold and are bidding its price up.

Exit question: Do you suppose those people have more money than sense?

Image credit: U.S. Mint. American Eagle One Ounce Gold Proof Coin. Public domain image.

It was a disappointing week for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). The index dropped just 0.15% from its previous week’s close to exit the trading week ending on Friday, 20 June 2025 at 5,967.84.

Keeping in mind that the weekend’s market-moving geopolitical events had not yet transpired, what made the week that was disappointing for Wall Street bulls was the continuing lack of action to cut interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. That was of little surprise since Fed officials had well telegraphed their intention to continue holding the Federal Funds Rate steady in preceding weeks. Their inaction now stands out in contrast to other central banks that have either been actively cutting their regional interest rates for months or have begun reacting to geopolitical tensions by cutting their interest rates in the last week.

But for bulls anxious to see a reduction in U.S. interest rates, there was some positive news. After the Fed held the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) steady at a target rate of 4.25-4.50%, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will continue holding the FFR at that level until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. Afterward, the FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will keep cutting the FFR a quarter point at a time at 12-week intervals into mid-2026.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart reveals the index is tracking along with the bottom of the expected range associated with investors focusing their forward-looking attention on the distant future quarter of 2025-Q4.

Here are the Juneteenth holiday-shortened week’s market-moving headlines, which we’ll note again do not include the surprising U.S. military attacks against Iran’s heavily armored uranium refining and nuclear development facilities. Investor reaction to that geopolitical event will arrive on Monday, 23 June 2025.

Monday, 16 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slips as Israel-Iran strikes spare key energy infrastructure
• Nearly 1 million illegal immigrants have ‘self-deported’ under Trump, which has led to higher wages
• Signs of a Weaker Labor Market
• Fed minions wondering why their prediction for inflation from tariffs isn't panning out:
• Where is the tariff inflation, anyway?
• Mixed economic signs developing in China:
• China's factories slow, consumers unexpectedly perk up
• BOJ minions looking at ways to stimulate Japan's economy:
• BOJ to consider slower bond taper as fresh global risks emerge
• ECB minions "relaxed", Eurozone minions want to get US trade deal:
• ECB relaxed about euro strength, risk of too low inflation, de Guindos says
• EU prepared to accept flat 10% US tariff with conditions, Handelsblatt reports
• Not the time to mess with EU-US trade, EU's Costa says
• Nasdaq, S&P, Dow closed higher as Middle East tensions continue and Fed rate decision looms
• Equities end higher as oil prices pull back on truce hopes

Tuesday, 17 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates
• Weak US retail sales, manufacturing output point to softening economy
• Fed minions meet, thinking about stimulus for U.S. economy:
• Fed policymakers meet as new data raises growth concerns, geopolitical risks rise
• Fed announces meeting to discuss easing bank leverage rules
• BOJ minions implementing ways to stimulate Japan's economy, say they are still thinking about hiking rates:
• BOJ to slow pace of bond tapering next year as fresh risks emerge
• Explainer: Why is the BOJ slowing its buying of Japanese government bonds?
• BOJ's inflation warning leaves room for another rate hike this year
• Wall Street ended lower as Israel-Iran conflict escalates and Fed rate announcement looms
• Indexes end lower as Israel-Iran fighting raises investor anxiety
• Solar stocks plunge on Senate proposal to phase out tax credits by 2028

Wednesday, 18 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US weekly jobless claims, housing data point to softening economic activity
• US single-family housing starts rise in May; permits slump
• US added over 1,000 new millionaires a day last year, UBS report says
• Oil settles higher as Iran-Israel conflict enters sixth day
• US rate futures bolster September, October rate cut chances after Fed decision
• Fed minions choose to not cut U.S. interest rates, as expected; cling bitterly to belief tariffs will cause inflation:
• Fed keeps rates steady; Powell sees 'meaningful' inflation ahead
• Fed's Powell says central bank still has the needed data to do its work
• Fed's Powell says he expects to see more tariff-driven price hikes in coming months
• Trump knocks Fed's Powell, muses about appointing himself to lead central bank
• Fed officials see two rate cuts in 2025, but overall turn hawkish
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China Auto Industry On Verge Of Collapse As Six Major Cities Run Out Of Car-Buying Subsidies
• China will issue remaining consumer goods subsidies at stable rate, state media says
• BOJ minions get gloomy over Japan's economic outlook and impact on their rate hike plans; Japan's government minions stop trying to flood market with long-term debt:
• BOJ's gloomy projections suggest no rate hike this year, ex-top economist says
• Japan's exports post first drop in 8 months as US tariffs hit auto firms
• Exclusive: Japan to cut super-long bond sales by 10% to calm markets, draft shows
• Wall Street ends flat after Fed continues to stick to wait-and-see mode
• S&P 500 ends nearly flat, gives back gains; Fed's Powell says inflation to rise

Friday, 20 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices settle lower as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran
• Oil hedging volumes hit new records as US producers rush to lock in soaring prices
• Citi sees oil prices of $75-$78/bbl if war disrupts 1.1 mln bpd of Iran's oil exports
• Fed divided over need for rate cuts, Fed minions in "no rate cut" camp cling bitterly to claims tariffs cause inflation, others say they'll cut rates in Fall 2025:
• Fed split over whether to hedge on inflation, proceed with cuts
• Exclusive: Fed's Barkin: No rush to cut, can't dismiss inflation risks from tariffs
• Still early to assess tariff impact on economy, Fed report says
• So, has anything actually gotten more expensive because of Trump’s tariffs?
• Fed's Daly says a rate cut in the fall could be appropriate
• Waller Puts In Bid For Next Fed Chair, Says Powell Should Cut "As Early As July"
• World central bankers capitulate and go into full rate cut mode:
• Oil, war and tariffs tear up markets' central bank roadmap
• Liquidity Floodgates Open As 3 Central Banks Unexpectedly Cut Rates In Under 24 Hours
• Return of Zero Interest Rate Policy as Swiss Central Bank Cuts Rates
• Norway central bank cuts rates in surprise move, eyes further reduction
• Sweden’s Central Bank Cuts Rate Amid Economic Uncertainty
• Bank of Mexico seen cutting key rate by 50 basis points next week
• Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow finished mostly lower as markets seesawed back and forth
• S&P 500, Nasdaq finish lower; investors uneasy about Middle East conflict

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 fell to +3.4% from the +3.8% level recorded in the previous week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official trying to pull down a sign that says 'NO RATE CUT FOR YOU' while a disappointed bull watches".

It's 2025. Where are the flying cars that science fiction predicted decades ago would exist by now?

It's not for lack of effort. Most flying car concepts that have been created over the years however have mostly involved taking a conventional car and modifying it with conventional airplane-like features. A good example of one concept that may actually make it to the marketplace is Klein Vision's AirCar, which is featured in the following short video, which recaps the long history of these concepts:

Klein Vision's concept of a car with retractable flying surfaces has potential, but also has limitations. You can drive it down the road with the wings and tail retracted into the vehicle's body, but to get airborne, you will still need something very much like a dedicated airport runway to transition from road to sky. It's not like you can just lift off the road to get around traffic, you need sufficient space to deploy the wings without potentially smacking into vehicles in adjacent lanes.

Solving that problem will take a very different kind of form factor for the flying car concept. It will take some true outside-the-box thinking because ideally, the successful flying car of the future will fully fit within the space available in a single road lane and be able to lift off and get above traffic without coming into contact with other vehicles sharing the road at will.

That's why we find CycloTech's CruiseUp concept to be fascinating. Introduced in the following video, if it proves technologically viable, it could deliver the kind of mobility that futurists and every motorist who has ever been stuck in traffic have long wanted in a flying car:

Klein Vision and CycloTech's concepts represent different paths to get from highway to skyway. At this point of 2025, we're just happy that both concepts are getting real world tryouts.

Given the nature of what we do, we generally follow the same calendar as the U.S. stock market, posting articles on the days the market is open for business.

But we do make an exception and post articles on a handful of uniquely American holidays. Our favorite by far is Thanksgiving, which we celebrate over the course of the entire week with articles related to the holiday and the day after it. We also mark the Fourth of July, but typically on just the day itself.

In 2021, Juneteenth became a federal holiday, and thus also a holiday for the U.S. stock market. But before that, it wasn't anything close to a holiday celebrated across the United States by a majority of Americans.

Before 2021, it was mostly a regional holiday, most often celebrated in states that were part of the Confederacy during the U.S. Civil War by Americans who had been slaves up until the end of the conflict and by their descendants.

That pre-federal holiday history has a story all its own, which the Texas Institute for the Preservation of History and Culture told in a two part video series it posted on YouTube back in 2010. Their interest makes sense because Texas is the point of origin for what is now the national Juneteenth holiday. Here's Part 1:

Here's Part 2:

The day marking the true end of the practice of slavery in the United States is a day worth celebrating. It took much longer and cost more in suffering and blood than it should have, but when it finally came, it marked the fulfillment of a process and promise that began with the framing of the U.S. Constitution.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in upcoming quarters is little changed since our previous snapshot of the future for the index' cash payouts a month ago.

The little change that has taken place however is mixed. For the three remaining quarters of 2025, expected dividends are up in the current quarter of 2025-Q2, up slightly in 2025-Q3, but down slightly in 2025-Q4. Here are the numbers recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 16 May 2025.

• 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.14, rising to $19.21 per share
• 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.03, rising to $19.13 per share
• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.03, falling to $19.27 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 April 2025 to 15 May 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

This is the last time 2025-Q2 will be presented as a future quarter in this series. The expiration of June 2025's quarterly dividend futures contract will come with the close of trading on this upcoming Friday. We don't anticipate the projected dividends in the chart will change very much before it expires.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q2 began on Saturday, 22 March 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 June 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q3 will become the current quarter effective on Saturday, 21 June 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.