It's summer and the weather will be great this weekend. It's the perfect time to host a cookout with enough food to feed ten hungry people. How much will it cost to feed all of them in 2026? And how does that compare to last year? Or the year before? Or for that matter, five years ago?
To find out, the American Farm Bureau Federation sent volunteers out grocery shopping for a summer cookout with a list of ten items. The same ten items they send shoppers out for every year when summer arrives. This year, they found the bill for their ten summer cookout items tallied up to $73.82, which is $2.90 or about 4.1% more than 2025's grocery bill. It's also $2.60 or 3.7% more than 2024's summer cookout cost.
Five years ago however, things were really different. Back then, all the Farm Bureau's summer cookout items cost a total of $59.52. That's $14.30 less than they do in 2026.
Summer 2021 however came at the beginning of a period of high inflation was unleashed by the Biden administration. Food prices shot up by 17% by Summer 2022 and by the time Summer 2024 came around, they were 20% higher than they had been in 2021.
The following interactive chart shows how much each individual menu item in the Farm Bureau's summer cookout menu cost in each year from 2021 through 2026. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the chart, which we created using Datawrapper.
The next chart better shows the trends for each of the individual summer cookout menu items:
Most items surged between 2021 and 2022 with inflation. However, only three of the ten items have shown a general upward trend from year to year since: ground beef, hamburger buns, and ice cream.
Two of these items fall into the category of beef or dairy products. These costs have been rising because of the decline of U.S. cattle and dairy herds as a result of drought conditions in 2023-2024, where cattle ranchers and dairy farmers had to make hard choices to reduce the number of cows they raise because of the drought's impact on pastureland and shortages of feed, which has inflated the costs to raise both beef and dairy cattle.
The drought conditions that shrank U.S. beef and dairy cattle herds will have a years-long impact. Even though drought conditions eased in 2025, because it takes about three years to raise cattle for beef production, it will likely be well into 2027 or in 2028 that Americans would reasonably expect see beef prices come down as supply recovery takes place.
Meanwhile, global shortages of wheat from ongoing geopolitical events like the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are a leading factor behind the rise in bread prices in recent years. In all these cases, reduced supply coupled with continued strong demand has contributed to rising prices.
In an interesting development, the Trump administration announced earlier this week that Walmart will lower the cost of several barbecue essentials by 15%. Walmart has confirmed its price rollbacks, noting the price of one pound of 73% ground beef roll will fall from $6.74 to $5.94, a savings of $0.80 (or about 12%) per pound. For the two pounds of hamburger on the Farm Bureau's summer cookout menu, this change alone would lower the cost of a summer cookout in 2026 by $1.60 to $72.22, making it just a dollar more expensive than it was in 2024.
Walmart is also reducing its price of an 8-ounce package of Lay's Classic Potato Chips from $2.97 to $2.50, which if we double to match the Farm Bureau's 16-ounces of potato chips on its menu, would further reduce the summer cookout cost by an additional $0.94. The combination of price reductions for just these two items would put the cost of a summer cookout in 2026 at $71.28, just $0.06 above what it cost in 2024.
Image credit: Some meat on a grill in the garden during summer photo by Marc Kleen on Unsplash.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the seasonally adjusted number of employed Americans Age 16-19 fell by 37,000 to 5,313,000 in June 2026. At the same time, the BLS also reports the number of employed Americans Age 16 or older dropped by 507,000 to 162,265,000.
Drilling down into the employed teen job numbers, younger teens (Age 16-17) saw their seasonally adjusted numbers increase by 6,000 to 1,856,000. That gain was more than offset by the decline in older teens (Age 18-19) that had 46,000 fewer counted as being employed during the month.
Now, here's the thing. Each of these data series gets its own seasonal adjustment. When you look at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, both younger and older teens saw big gains. The raw number of 16 to 17-year-olds with jobs rose 352,000 up to 2,096,000, while the number of employed 18 to 19-year-olds increased 416,000 to 3,944,000. Altogether, the non-seasonally adjusted number of working teens grew by 769,000 to 6,040,000 in June 2026.
So why is the seasonally adjusted numbers showing such a modest gain for younger teens and a drop for older teens and all teens as a whole? In short, it's because the 2026 summer jobs season is falling far short in putting teens into jobs. At least, with respect to the number of working teens that the BLS' seasonal adjustment projects should have been filled in this first month of Summer 2026 if it is valid.
The following pair of charts shows the seasonally adjusted employment numbers and employment-to-population percentages for younger teens (Age 16-17), older teens (Age 18-19) and the combined population of working teens (Age 16-19) from January 2021 through June 2026.
As always, sharp-eyed readers will recognize the number of employed Age 16-17 teens and Age 18-19 teens does not add up to the combined Age 16-19 figure. That's because each demographic gets its own seasonal adjustment. If you want numbers that do add up within a small margin of error, you'll want to stick with the BLS' raw, non-seasonally adjusted employment figures.
For May 2026's teen jobs numbers, we observed that the number of younger teens trending down but the number of older teens was holding steady, indicating employers are favoring older teens over hiring younger teens. June 2026's numbers suggest that's not necessarily the case, with the number of older teens now catching down to a lower level.
Meanwhile, there's evidence the BLS is falling short in collecting as much survey data as needed to have strong confidence in its jobs estimates. We'll see if that's a monthly fluke in the data or if the data they are collecting represents a valid trend in the months ahead.
Reference
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 2 July 2026.
Image credit: Help Wanted sign by Egan Snow on Flickr. Creative Commons Creative Commons - CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.
Labels: jobs
A month ago, we examined the trajectory of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) to ask if the index was rising too much too fast. The verdict was that though prices had indeed risen very rapidly after 30 March 2026 through 29 May 2026, they were still short of rocketing past the upper threshold that signals order is at high risk of breaking down in the U.S. stock market.
If the S&P 500 done so and stayed elevated above that level, the unvarnished answer to the question would have been yes. If that happened, the market would have clearly entered into a more chaotic phase requiring investors to adapt accordingly.
That scenario however was averted as investors responded to new information that came as the publicly traded firms making big bets on AI technologies reported their earnings. Investors reacted to news of high capital expenditures combined with greatly diminished free cash flow for many of the tech industry's highest flyers to send their stock prices lower.
Since several of these company's have market capitalizations that give them outsize influence over the S&P 500 index as a whole, the two-month-old rally ran out of steam. The value of the index reverted back toward its mean trend trajectory.
The following chart presenting the relationship between the value of the S&P 500 and its underlying trailing year dividends per share captures these latest macro-developments for the index:
Through the close of trading on 2 July 2026, the S&P 500 is still above the long term trend that has become established since 29 December 2023, but is otherwise behaving in a relatively orderly manner. However, we can't say it's behaving normally because that's not the right kind of distribution to describe how stock prices behave in the real world.
In any case, that's how investors maintained the U.S. stock market's current relative state of order after a rally that saw stock prices rising too much too quickly!
Image credit: Levy Distribution by Maksim on Wikimedia Commons Public Domain CC0 1.0 Universal Deed.
Previously on Political Calculations
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rebounded from the previous week's heavy rotation away from AI and technology stocks, which had sent the index lower because several of these stocks happen to be among the biggest components of the capitalization weighted index. Altogether, the S&P rose by a little under 1.8% on the strength of their rebound, closing at 7,483.24 on Thursday, 2 July 2026 before traders and investors both headed out for the long Fourth of July holiday weekend.
Perhaps the most notable headlines driving stock prices during the week were those reporting about the declines of oil and fuel prices. The oil shock from the Iran war geopolitical event had raised fears of prolonged high inflation as the impact of high oil and gas prices would progressively spread into other sectors of the economy.
Falling oil and gas prices however would mitigate those inflationary pressures. That in turn would reduce the odds of multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in upcoming months.
Overall, we find the S&P 500's trajectory falls well within the new redzone forecast range we added to the alternative futures chart in the previous edition of this series:
This new redzone forecast range is based on the assumption investors will hold their forward-looking focus on the current quarter of 2026-Q3 as they set current day stock prices. That makes sense because the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will hike the Federal Funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75-4.00% after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3).
The bigger question right now is what will happen beyond that date. Through the close of trading on 2 July 2026, the FedWatch tool anticipates another quarter point rate hike on 17 March (2027-Q1). But that expectation has been fluid over the last several weeks. If oil and fuel prices continue falling, we would expect the probability the Fed will hike rates in 2027 will drop below 50%. If oil and gas prices drop more quickly in the weeks ahead, then the expected rate hike in September 2026 will come into question.
That possibility, and other market moving events, will be something investors consider as weigh what they absorb the random onset of new information from the newstreams in those upcoming weeks. Speaking of which, here are the market moving headlines from the week that was:
- Monday, 29 June 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- What's good for the US economy now may not be good for stocks
- Cheaper AI is better: Soaring bills are reshaping how businesses choose models
- Oil settles up on US-Iran strikes; cautious hopes for shipping cap gains
- Fed minion with alleged ethics problems allowed to stay on job 'for now':
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's factory activity likely returned to meagre growth in June: Reuters poll
- Rate On China's New Overnight Liquidity Tool Comes Below Estimates, Hints At Imminent Easing
- ECB minions say Eurozone economy so good they can afford to hike rates:
- Wall Street closed higher as tech rebounded and U.S.-Iran tensions eased
- Tuesday, 30 June 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US single-family home prices ease on a monthly basis in April, FHFA says
- Oil falls as investors focus on potential Iran-US talks in Doha
- US retailers frontload China orders for holiday season, shipping firms say
- US job openings rise to two-year high, but hiring still struggling
- US expected to not extend USMCA, starting a decade-long countdown for trade pact
- Fed minions looking forward to some peace and quiet, still fear inflation and are starting to lose some of their best customers:
- Quarter-end expected to be quiet for Fed liquidity facilities
- Fed's Hammack tells CNBC rate hikes may be needed to quell high inflation
- For first time, more central banks are set to shrink dollar holdings, survey finds
- Some growth signs developing in China:
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ minions credibility again at risk:
- Yen stumbles to 40-year low
- Japan's May factory output growth lagged forecasts
- BOJ's slow, dovish revamp casts doubt over long-term rate-hike plans
- ECB minions suddenly rethinking their rate hike plans for Eurozone, still afraid of inflation:
- Surprisingly quick oil price retreat eases urgency for ECB to act, sources say
- ECB should not rush any further rate hike, Demarco says
- Lower oil price eases pressure on ECB to act, Dolenc says
- ECB's inflation fears linger despite oil price retreat
- S&P 500, Nasdaq register best quarter since 2020 despite Iran war
- Wednesday, 1 July 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US Manufacturing Expanded For 6th Straight Month In June As Inflation Fears Ease
- Oil falls as markets await outcome of Iran-US talks, US stocks data
- New chief Fed minion lays out the central bank's agenda for Fed minions:
- Fed's Warsh vows to 'disappoint' anyone who thinks he will tolerate inflation above 2%
- Fed's Warsh plans to harness better economic data within a year
- Fed's Warsh says any balance sheet policy change won't be a surprise
- Mixed growth signs developing in China:
- China resale home prices fall faster in June, shows private survey
- China's factory activity completes strongest quarter since late 2020, private PMI shows
- Japan's economy shows signs of growth, BOJ minions salivate over opportunity to hike Japan's interest rates:
- ECB minions plans to keep hiking rates may be put on hold:
- U.S. stocks decline at the start of the second half of the year as tech struggles
- Thursday, 2 July 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%
- US job growth likely cooled in June after recent string of big gains
- 2-year Treasury yield eases as light jobs report reduces Fed hike expectations
- US factory orders fall in May, weighed down by weak demand for commercial aircraft
- Oil falls for a third straight day after US, Iran conclude talks in Doha
- Why the U.S. housing shortage might be nearing its end
- Odds of rate hike before year-end fall; odds for one 25 bps cut rise
- Fed minions thinking about maybe not hiking U.S. interest rates, say their current monetary policies are 'slightly restrictive':
- Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows
- Cooling US jobs data buys the Fed and stock market more time
- Weak jobs, declining labor force, could renew Fed debate over state of labor market
- Fed's Daly says US policy 'slightly restrictive,' next step uncertain
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- ECB minions want to keep tight control over Eurozone banks to keep them from risk of failure, even if it means losing money:
- ECB pushes back on calls for lower bank capital levels
- ECB considers lifting banks' minimum reserves to lessen own losses
- S&P 500 posts weekly gain, led by financials and communication services
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 plunged to +1.2% from the previous week's real growth estimate of +2.5%.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching a Fourth of July drone show".
The market capitalization of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rebounded strongly in the second quarter of 2026 after having shrunk by 1.5% in the first.
Since that Spring 2026 snapshot, the index's 503 stocks added $8.74 trillion to its total valuation, rising just shy of 15% over its market capitalization of three months earlier to reach a record high market cap of a shade over $67.185 trillion.
The index' top ten stocks contributed a little over a third of the index' total increase in value. Altogether, the combined market cap of these ten stocks account for 36.5% of the total value of the S&P 500, which believe it or not, represents a small decline from the 36.9% share they held at the end of March 2026.
The following chart shows the relative shares of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 at the end of the second quarter of 2026.
There has also been a change in the membership of the S&P 500's Top 10 stocks. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU has displaced Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) from the tenth spot. Here are the approximate market capitalizations of each of the S&P 500's top ten component firms at the end of trading on 30 June 2026:
- Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) $4,743,261,533,736 (7.06%)
- Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) $4,185,625,970,988 (6.23%)
- Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) $2,774,740,812,228 (4.13%)
- Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) $2,539,593,285,768 (3.78%)
- Alphabet (A) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) $2,217,105,249,480 (3.30%)
- Alphabet (C) (NASDAQ: GOOG) $2,055,861,231,336 (3.06%)
- Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) $1,760,247,198,072 (2.62%)
- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) $1,551,973,674,636 (2.31%)
- Meta Platforms (A) (NASDAQ: META) $1,417,603,659,516 (2.11%)
- Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) $1,249,641,140,616 (1.86%)
Aside from Micron Technology's incredible ~750% year-long ascent to become one of index' Top 10 component stocks, there was some low level jockeying in the ranks of these most highly valued U.S. stocks. Meta Platforms dropped two positions from sixth to eighth as the company's missteps with its investments in AI technology proved costlier than anticipated, while both Broadcom and Tesla moved up one slot into the gaps left behind.
The S&P 500 now has 12 stocks for 11 companies whose market capitalizations exceed the trillion dollar level. Although no longer part of the index' top ten stocks, Berkshire Hathaway retained its trillion dollar valuation, while shares of Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) rose to tie it for 11th place.
References
Standard and Poor. S&P 500 Factsheet. [PDF Document]. 30 June 2026. Accessed 1 July 2026.
SlickCharts. S&P 500 Component Weights. 30 June 2026. Accessed 1 July 2026.
Labels: market cap
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