When we launched the S&P 500's Thanksgiving Leftover project the day after Thanksgiving 2025, we knew we were going to spend the next year following the stock prices of companies that weren't doing very well. After all, to even make the list, the ten companies whose stocks we would track ranked as the S&P 500's worst performing stocks of 2025.
In the nine months since then, a few of those stocks have outperformed the index, while the rest have lagged behind. Most of those stocks have fallen below their post-2025 Thanksgiving Day level, but not by anywhere near as much as they had fallen to qualify as one of the S&P 500's worst performing stocks in 2025.
But one stock in particular has gone on to plumb new depths. It has continued to fall so much more that it is on track to qualify as one of the S&P 500's worst performing stocks of 2026.
That stock is The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD), the digital advertising firm analyst David Desjardins believes is facing an "existential crisis". Here's how he describes the company's now nearly two year long fall from grace:
After reporting highly disappointing financial results for the second quarter of 2026, shares of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) declined by a whopping 21.9% last Friday, which came on top of a 6.8% decline on the prior day. Since the publication of my initiating coverage in early February 2026, TTD's stock price has basically been cut in half, from ~$27.00 per share at the time of publication to around $13.39 as of today's market close.
Relative to its all-time high of $141.53 reached in December 2024, The Trade Desk has now declined by a massive ~90%. As David Einhorn famously said, a stock down 90% is just a stock that was down 80% before being cut in half again, and this is exactly what happened to TTD since last February. The depth of TTD's sell-off is quite something, but what is even more impressive to me is its speed....
At this point, The Trade Desk has become one of the most hated stocks that I am aware of, and this is on top of being the worst-performing constituent in the S&P 500 (SPX) on a year-to-date basis. Pretty much everything said or written about the company is negative, and it is precisely why I decided to write an update today. In less than two years, TTD went from a market darling that could do no wrong at over 26.0x forward sales to being viewed as a melting ice cube changing hands at 2.3x forward sales today.
The following chart compares The Trade Desk's stock performance with the S&P 500, from 29 November 2024 (aka "the day after Thanksgiving Day 2024) through 18 August 2026:
Believe it or not, despite the company's continued misfortune, Desjardins views the company's low stock price as a speculative strong buy opportunity, where he makes the argument that the company has some potential for a turnaround based on its available cash balance, lack of debt, and cash flow.
We disagree, because we think The Trade Desk has further to fall before it might reach that point.
Here's why. According to SlickCharts, The Trade Desk's market cap has fallen to where the company now ranks 502 out of the 503 stocks that make up the S&P 500 index. Because it has, and because its fall is continuing, the company's stock is verging on the point where S&P will act to remove it from the index. If and when that happens, as increasingly seems likely, its stock price will experience the opposite of what happens when a company's stock is included in the index, which is to say its stock price will fall even further.
A deeper decline is almost ensured given the negative outlook CEO Jeffrey Green communicated during the company's 2026-Q2 earnings call. Gytis Zizys, who formerly held a buy rating for the company on the hope it will see a turnaround, reacted to that development:
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) provided one of the worst guidances I’ve seen in recent months, which put the last nail in the coffin for many shareholders who were still clinging to the idea of a turnaround. It seems I was prematurely too bullish on the turnaround as well, and this report is forcing me to downgrade it to a hold. I don’t think there’s a point in selling at these low prices, unless you want to harvest some tax losses. If it gets to under $10 per share, I will be jumping in to see what happens over the next couple of years. It’ll either recover, or my investment will go to zero.
The only problem with this investing strategy is we can argue that the bar for being able to beat TTD's stock performance is very low. It's so low that investing almost anywhere else or just parking the money in a cash savings account would be more advantageous.
This article is a standalone feature in our ongoing Thanksgiving Leftover series, which will continue with its regular monthly installment later this month. The ongoing tragedy of the performance of The Trade Desk's stock demanded a special edition.
Labels: ideas, SP 500, stock prices, thanksgiving
Something new is coming to the world of sports: real futures trading.
On 11 August 2026, the world's largest futures and options trading house, CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) announced it would partner with the National Hockey League and a startup called FutureSports to launch the world's first index-based hockey futures contracts.
Unlike the kind of futures you might find at multiple sports wagering outfits that might involve things like betting on which team will win the Stanley Cup next year or which goalie will win the Vezina Trophy, the kind of futures contracts now being developed for the NHL have a lot more to do with giving sports-related businesses and investors new tools to hedge their risks in addition to simple speculation.
The Chicago Tribune gives an overview of what the CME Group/FutureSports/NHL partnership is looking to bring about:
Futures contracts, tied to the value of indexes, allow investors to buy or sell an asset at an agreed price by a specific date. It also allows traders to hedge risks.
For decades, futures contracts have primarily been associated with agriculture products, like corn and soybeans, or energy commodities, such as oil and natural gas, as well as stock indexes like the S&P 500. Futures even got the Hollywood treatment with the 1983 film “Trading Places,” when Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy’s characters cashed in on orange juice futures, and over 20 years later, inspired a federal provision nicknamed the Eddie Murphy Rule.
FutureSports and CME’s new offering means if the Blackhawks play poorly, for example, a season ticket holder could take a short position on the team’s index to try and recoup some of their ticket investment losses. Corporate sponsors, which spend millions annually on sports deals, could buy hockey futures to limit their exposure if a key athlete gets injured or the team just fails to meet expectations.
The companies highlighted other potential market participants like garage and parking lot operators, retailers and even the sports franchises.
There are real businesses and people who have real money on the line that depend on how well a team performs. For example, consider one of the Chicago Blackhawks' star players, Connor Bedard. One of the top offensive players in the NHL when healthy, Bedard's career has been repeatedly knocked by injuries, forcing him to miss playing in significant parts of several seasons.
Every time he's been sidelined, the Blackhawks' ability to score goals and win games has been notably reduced. While not the only reason for the team's bottom-of-their-division status in recent seasons, his absence from the ice when injured has certainly been a contributing factor.
With futures trading however, the businesses whose revenues rise and fall with the team's fortunes would have a way to cushion the losses they might otherwise face. For example, if Connor Bedard isn't playing, it's tougher to sell hockey sweaters with his name and number on them. Or to sell Connor Bedard Funko-pop figurines at Chicago's sporting goods stores. Or to fill restaurants near the United Center on the Blackhawks' game nights. Hedging using futures contracts could make a lot of sense for the owners of these businesses to offset their otherwise unmitigated loss of revenue and potentially even stabilize it in the face of an adverse event like a key player not being able to play.
Futures trading falls into the kind of higher risk investing we consider to be suitable mainly for well-established and well-funded operators. It's definitely not for the faint-of-heart or for those who have low tolerances for risk. The Chicago Tribune's article understates that aspect of the venture:
Trading futures is complex and its investors are savvy. Even retail traders, who buy for themselves and often make smaller trades, use similar financial analysis tools as institutional investors.
“Anyone considering trading them should understand the mechanics, costs and risks first and seek professional guidance as appropriate,” said Joseph Cusick, senior vice president and portfolio specialist at Calamos Investments in Naperville. “Futures traders can experience rapid gains or losses because of margin requirements.”
That's putting it mildly, especially since real futures trading might involve using leverage (or borrowing) to fund an inherently speculative investment.
It will be interesting to see how the proposed NHL futures market plays out. If all goes as planned, NHL futures will go live 28 September 2026. Right in time for the NHL's 2026-27 season to get underway.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear playing hockey where the scoreboard shows 'CME Group / FutureSports / NHL Index' with value of 7500".
Labels: ideas, investing, risk, sports
The dividend outlook of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) once again delivered a mixed outlook for investors in August 2026.
Expected dividends for the index dipped in the current quarter of 2026-Q3, but the amount of cash dividends expected to be paid out in the upcoming future quarters of 2026-Q4 and 2027-Q1 increased. The more distant future quarters of 2027-Q2 and 2027-Q3 however both declined with respect to the July 2026 snapshot of the S&P 500's dividend outlook.
All these changes however are modest, with the magnitude of the changes for each quarter coming in at less than one percent. Here is the summary of how the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends changed between 14 July and 14 August 2026:
- 2026-Q3: Decrease of $0.11 to $21.02 per share
- 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.10 to $21.55 per share
- 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.06 to $22.81 per share
- 2027-Q2: Decrease of $0.15 to $21.60 per share
- 2027-Q3: Decrease of $0.11 to $21.81 per share
The following chart illustrates the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as of 14 August 2026 and how they compare with the preceding quarters going back to 2024-Q3.
More About Dividend Futures
Dividend futures represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.
Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q3 began on Saturday, 20 June 2026 and will officially end on Friday, 18 September 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it counts as a future quarter all the way up through that future point in time.
Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.
Labels: dividends, forecasting, SP 500
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached a new record high close of 7,798.99 on Thursday, 13 August 2026 before falling back on Friday to end the trading week at 7,785.76.
Two developments helped to spur the index to its new heights. First, investors received good inflation news on Wednesday, 12 August 2026 when the Consumer Price Index came in lower than expected. The second came on Thursday, when the Producer Price Index was likewise reported to be lower than expected.
Because of these benign consumer and producer price inflation reports, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool no longer anticipates the Fed will act to hike the Federal Funds Rate from its current target range of 3.50-3.75% in September 2026, but will instead delay a quarter point rate hike to take place sometime in the fourth quarter of 2026. In its latest snapshot, the FedWatch Tool sees a falling 53% chance the Fed will act to hike this core interest rate to a target range of 3.75-4.00% on 28 October (2026-Q4) but gives a more solid 93% chance this rate will be in effect on 9 December (2026-Q4).
With the next rate hike likely delayed and fewer rate hikes on the table as a result of the better than expected inflation reports, the resulting lower interest rates kept investors focused on the first quarter of 2027 as they set current day stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the level of stock prices is right where they dividend futures-based model forecasts it would be provided investors are focused on 2027-Q1.
While those were the biggest headlines, other things happened that contributed to the random onset of new information investors absorbed and reacted to during the week that was. Here is our summary of the week's market moving headlines:
- Monday, 10 August 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- July US container imports hit fourth-highest on record, Descartes says
- Oil climbs 5% as Iran, US both demand compensation and Hormuz hopes fade
- Lower inflation, global ambitions developing in China:
- China July factory-gate inflation eases to 3-month low, CPI slows
- China's central bank vows to expand yuan's international use in five-year plan
- China bypasses shipping chokepoints with ‘Ice Silk Road’ through Arctic
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan as BOJ minions plan next rate hikes:
- BOJ's rate-hike path runs into Takaichi's bond market problems
- BOJ's debate on faster hikes bolsters September rate move odds
- Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
- Wall Street concluded moderately lower as hopes for Hormuz reopening fade
- Tuesday, 11 August 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US court rules Meta, other tech firms must face thousands of lawsuits over social media addiction
- US existing home sales fall further; small business sentiment at 11-month high
- Oil prices settle up as Iran says Strait of Hormuz to stay shut
- US auto loans hit record high in second quarter, New York Fed says
- US officials work to close supply chain gaps as foreign investment grows
- Fed minions say inflation is their biggest problem:
- Inflation is the biggest problem, Fed's Goolsbee says
- Atlanta Fed's Venable: Inflation too high, with prospect of easing dependent on events in Middle East
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China's car sales extend slide as shift accelerates to overseas markets
- Surge in China's coal imports may start to taper off
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
- Wall Street ended lower as eyes remain on the Middle East and upcoming inflation data
- Wednesday, 12 August 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US annual inflation cooled to 3.4% in July
- Headline CPI rises 3.4% in July, slowing from June's pace
- Rate-Hike Odds Tumble As US Consumer Price Inflation Prints Slowest Since Pre-War
- Oil prices edge up as investors weigh US-Iran talks deadlock against lower demand
- Mortgage rates finally stop rising, causing demand to trickle back
- Before the CPI inflation report: Fed minions say poor Americans are struggling to make ends meet, want to hike their interest rates:
- Boston Fed's Collins open to interest rate increase in September, FT says
- Investors worry leaner Fed guidance may come at a price
- After the CPI inflation report:
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- Wall Street finished up in the green after the latest inflation report
- Thursday, 13 August 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US producer prices unchanged in July, further dimming rate hike odds
- Oil settles down 2% on weak demand outlook, hefty US crude build
- One Fed minion notices inflation data doesn't support rate hikes, other Fed minion is slow on the uptake, while third is flapping in the wind:
- Fed's Goolsbee says latest inflation data is better
- Fed should raise rates to restrain growth and inflation, Hammack says
- Fed's Barkin: Still an "open question" if rate hike will be needed to meet inflation target
- BOJ minions excited to get inflation data to support their plans to keep hiking Japan's interest rates:
- Japan's wholesale inflation stays hot, bolstering odds of September BOJ hike
- Rate hike bets leave yen's post-intervention gains at BOJ's mercy
- Wall Street ended on top as the S&P 500 notched a new record high
- Friday, 14 August 2026
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US retail sales post first decline in nine months in July
- Oil set for weekly gains after US threatens indefinite blockade of Iran
- Fed rate hike odds sink further as retail sales, consumer sentiment fall
- Fed minions expected to sit on hands rather than hike rates in September 2026:
- Bigger trouble developing in and out of China:
- China July bank loans post record contraction as credit demand falters
- Chinese car sales are booming almost everywhere - just not at home
- BOJ minions getting super excited to hike Japan's interest rates again:
- Central bank minions around globe betting big on gold:
- Wall Street ended lower a day after the S&P 500 notched a record high
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool anticipates real GDP growth for the U.S. economy of +4.3% in 2026-Q3, down from the +5.8% annualized growth it forecast a week earlier.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who give each other a high-five after news breaks that inflation came in lower than expected while Federal Reserve officials are sad they won't be able to hike U.S. interest rates when they wanted".
Knots hold a special place in the hearts of sailors and mathematicians.
That's almost self-explanatory for sailors, who have been tying knots as an essential part of their craft for centuries. They even used them to tell how fast they're going over open water.
Mathematicians' fascination with knots is harder to explain, but comes down to their love of counting. The more complicated the knot, the more the knots strands cross each other, the better. And what better way to make a knot more complicated than by taking two knots, cutting each and then joining their open ends together to make an even bigger, more complicated knot?
They even defined a special rule about the practice to calculate how much more complicated the resulting knot would be. They conjectured that if they took the unknotting number for each knot, which is to say the number of steps it would take to tranform the knot into a simple loop (imaginatively called the "unknot"), and added them together, the result would be the unknotting number of the combined, more complicated knot.
This additivity conjecture worked with just about every combination of knots they could throw at it. Until two mathematicians discovered an example where that rule didn't work. Instead of leading to a more complicated knot, they found a knot that became easier to unknot after being joined. It didn't add up as previous generations of mathematicians had believed it should, and because it didn't, they proved the conjecture about the additivity of unknotting numbers is untrue for all cases.
In the following video, Trefor Bazett guides viewers through basic knot theory in an easy to understand presentation before getting to the remarkable disproof of the additivity conjecture in knot theory by Mark Brittenham and Susan Hermiller, which only took them ten years to work out:
Brittenham and Hermiller's paper is here. Bazett has a second video featuring an extended interview with Brittenham and Hermiller.
The knot they found that broke the rule is the (2,7) Torus Knot, an example of which is the featured illustration for this article. It's also known as the 7₁ knot in a different mathematical knot nomenclature system, but we're not going to get into that topic because why complicate knots any more than needed?
Image credit: Blue 7₁ Knot or (2,7) Torus Knot by Jim.belk on Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain.
Labels: math
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