The direction the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) takes is shaping up a lot like a playing a game that has a 50% chance of winning or a 50% chance of losing.

Investors saw that game play out during the past week as several of the Big Tech companies that dominate the index reported their earnings and updated their outlooks. For example, the world's biggest company, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) briefly touched a $5 trillion valuation before disappointing investors with its supply chain struggles, sending its shares lower.

But that loss was offset for the index as both Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) were more positive.

By the time the trading week ended on Friday, 31 July 2026, the bulls came out ahead as the index rose almost 1.1% above its previous week's close to reach a value of 7,489.72.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows stock prices are consistent with investors focusing their forward looking attention on either the current quarter of 2026-Q3 or the more distant quarter of 2026-Q4.

The dividend futures-based model indicates very little difference in where it projects the level of the S&P 500 would be for investors fixing their attention on either these two future quarters.

As for why these two quarters would be of particular interest to investors, they happen to represent the likely timing of when the Fed will act to change the Federal Funds Rate. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects two quarter point rate hikes before the end of 2026. The first would occur after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3) and the second would take place on 9 December (2026-Q4).

Here are the market-moving headlines of the week that was:

Monday, 27 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US core capital goods orders rise, shipments post largest gain in 4-1/2 years amid AI investment boom
• Oil prices settle at lowest in over a week, as US pauses attacks on Iran
• Oil prices slide, Brent crude below $90 as pause to U.S.-Iran hostilities appears to hold
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's industrial profit growth moderates as exports cushion uneven recovery
• China begins making homegrown DUV chipmaking tools, The Information reports
• Chipmaker CXMT vaults to top of China's valuation with 466% surge in Shanghai debut
• China accuses US of 'AI hegemonism', threatens countermeasures over potential probes
• China opposes US 'forced labour' tariffs, calls for them to be cancelled
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates some more:
• Bank of Japan to signal more rate hikes as price pressures build
• ECB minions say interest rate hikes will continue until Eurozone morale improves:
• ECB's Kazimir: September rate hike likely needed even if outlook improves
• ECB facing mid-sized inflation shock, will get to 2% in year or so, Lane says
• Wall Street closed mixed as eyes remained focused on U.S.-Iran relations
• Wall Street ends mixed as investors focus on tech earnings

Tuesday, 28 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US goods trade deficit shrinks, is still expected to weigh on Q2 GDP growth
• Oil prices fall 5% to two-week low after several days without US-Iran strikes
• Fed minions not expected to hike U.S. interest rates this week:
• Bar to Fed rate hike this week remains high even as markets see a chance
• Uneven economic growth developing in China:
• High-tech manufacturing hubs pull ahead in China's uneven growth
• Bigger trouble developing everywhere:
• Persistently high inflation to nag global economy, say economists: Reuters poll
• S&P 500 ends higher as investors await tech earnings
• Wall Street ended mixed as global tech softness weighs and earnings take center stage
• Apple briefly tops $5 trillion market value for first time

Wednesday, 29 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US mortgage rates climb again in latest week, many at year high
• Oil jumps 7% on escalating Middle East airstrikes
• Brent oil jumps back above $90 after Trump threatens to hit Iran hard
• OpenAI's rogue agent compromised a customer at a second tech firm
• Fed minions follow through on expectations with no rate hike, three minions dissented:
• Fed leaves rates unchanged; three policymakers dissent in favor of a hike
• VIEW Fed holds rates steady as three policymakers dissent for a hike
• No Rate-Change Sparks 3 Dissents As Warsh Fed Delivers Biggest 'Non-Cut' Surprise In Decades
• Fed meeting recap: Warsh says Fed won’t hesitate to stop inflation, but bond market has doubts
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China sets overnight reverse repo rate steady at 1.25%, sources say
• Wall Street ends lower as FOMC holds interest rates steady
• Wall Street closes down sharply after Fed holds rates unchanged
• Dow drops 1,100 points for worst day since April 2025 on fear the Fed is falling behind on inflation
• The US10Y is above 75% of its three-year range – this is what it means for the S&P 500

Thursday, 30 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US economic growth slows but domestic demand robust
• Oil edges down in choppy trading amid Oman-Iran talks, US-Iran tensions
• Fed minions see long-term interest rates rise after sending "muddled" message:
• Fed's 'hawkish hold' muddies path for stocks and bonds
• US 30-year yield hits 2007 high, stocks attempt post-earnings recovery
• Bigger trouble, smaller stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity expected to have stalled in July: Reuters poll
• China generates less than half of its electricity from coal for the first time
• China's leaders pledge to support economy without big new stimulus plans
• BOJ minions suspected of taking action to prop up Japan's currency:
• Yen surges, analysts suspect official Japanese intervention
• Faster growth, bigger inflation developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone economy grows faster than expected on AI spending, confident consumers
• German inflation accelerates to 2.8% in July
• Wall Street closed higher as chips rallied and latest GDP and inflation figures landed
• Wall Street ends sharply higher, lifted by soaring Microsoft
• Microsoft sets record with near $450 billion single-day gain in market value

Friday, 31 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Big Tech AI spending spree tops $1tn
• Anthropic's Claude AI hacked three companies during tests
• What we know about the rogue AI-agent security breaches
• Oil falls more than $1 on greater flows despite US-Iran war
• US Treasury yield curve 'twist' reflects view Fed may not hike again
• Fed minions make case for September rate hike, some argue inflation is lowest it's been in years, chief Fed minion thinking about changing the schedule:
• Fed dissenters sketch the case for a rate hike
• As Warsh’s Fed faces pressure to act on inflation, these indicators show it’s at its lowest in years
• Warsh raised changing frequency of Fed policy meetings, NYT reports
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity shrinks in July as demand falters, fuelling slowdown concerns
• China approves eight new nuclear power units
• BOJ minions pass on hiking Japan's interest rates, but hint they'll resume hiking them later with inflation rising; also busy with propping up Japan's currency:
• Yen remains under pressure after BOJ kept rates unchanged
• Annual core inflation in Japan's capital accelerates in July
• BOJ nods to chance of early rate hike as Tokyo props up yen
• Japan intervenes to prop up yen ahead of BOJ policy decision, source says
• Japan may have sold up to $59 billion in yen-buying intervention
• History of Japan's intervention in currency markets
• US Treasury informed banks that it may intervene in Japan's yen, source says
• ECB minions see higher inflation in Eurozone:
• Euro zone inflation ticks up in July, bolstering rate hike case
• Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% in July
• S&P 500 posts weekly gain as consumer discretionary shines
• Wall Street ends higher as Amazon soothes AI jitters
• Amazon lifts investment plans after strong cloud sales; shares jump
• Apple disappoints with forecast dogged by supply chain struggles
• Apple set to lose nearly $500 billion in value after weak forecast

The BEA's first estimate of annualized real GDP growth during 2026-Q2 is 1.5%, just a bit below the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's final estimate of +1.7% for the quarter. Meanwhile, GDPNow tool's first estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the now current quarter of 2026-Q3 is +5.0%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon showing a Wall Street bull and bear spinning a Price Is Right style Big Wheel labeled 'WHICH WAY WILL STOCKS GO?’ with values 'UP' and 'DOWN'".

Colossal Biosciences is a biotechnology company that's taken on the challenge of reviving extinct species as a core part of its mission. Earlier this year, they announced success at breeding chickens using their artificial egg technology, which they see as key to "de-extincting" large avian species like New Zealand's moa.

They publicized the achievement in a video that gives strong Jurassic Park vibes:

When they make the next Jurassic Park/World sequel, we hope they work the line "hexagons are the bestagons" into the script.

As for Colossal Biosciences, it's a real company that's reportedly worth around $10 billion that's seeking to raise money to further the technologies they're developing.

The U.S. new home market continued stumbling along in May 2026.

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total value of new home sales in the United States during May 2026 is $28.62 billion. This value is slightly higher than the initial estimate of $28.30 billion for April 2026, which has been revised downward to $28.18 billion for this month.

This estimate rose largely because average new home sale prices have been rising, which have offset a falling number of sales in recent months as mortgage rates in the United States increased to near their highest levels in the past year:

The contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage — the most common U.S. home loan — climbed 7 basis points to 6.76% in the week ended July 24, just shy of a one-year high, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. The rate on 15-year, fixed-rate loans climbed 11 basis points to 6.15%, the highest in just over a year.

Meanwhile, rates on adjustable-rate mortgages, which can be a more affordable option in the face of high fixed-rate costs but come with the risk of a higher rate reset later on, also moved higher. The rate on a 5-year ARM edged up to 5.98% last week.

Looking at the big picture for the U.S. new home market, the following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their average sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through May 2026.

New home sales trending downward:

Rising trend for new home prices:

We'll take a closer look at the impact these factors are having on the relative affordability of new homes being sold in the U.S. in the next week.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 June 2026. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 24 June 2026. 

Image Credit: Construction worker in hard hat on a building frame photo by Josh Olalde on Unsplash.

There are thirty stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Index: DJI), the U.S. stock market's oldest running index. Unlike the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), the market capitalization-weighted index that's overtaken it as standard for measuring the performance of the U.S. stock market, the component stocks of the DJI are weighted according to their price.

For example, the stock of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has the heaviest weight within the index, accounting for 11.72% of its value on 27 July 2026 thanks to its highest-in-the-index share price of $1,041.82.

With a share price of $837.24, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) ranks second, making up 9.42% of the index. The third largest component stock of the DJI belongs to United Health (NYSE: UNH), whose share price of $427.54 gives it a 4.8% share of the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The following chart visualizes the relative share of each of the DJI's 30 component stocks within the index:

We wondered how this chart would change if the thirty Dow Jones Industrial component stocks were weighted within the index according to their market capitalization. The next chart shows the results of that exercise, keeping the order and coloring of the component stock shares the same as the price-weighted visualization:

The DJI's top three components of Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and United Health go from accounting for a combined 25.94% of the index to just 4.23%. In their place, the top three component stocks of become Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), which would account for 49.7% of the entire DJI's valuation.

References

Slickcharts. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Price Weighting of Component Stocks and Market Capitalization. 27 July 2026.

July 2026 saw positive changes overall for the Thanksgiving Leftover portfolio made up of the ten worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) as of Thanksgiving 2025. At least, as compared to how they fared in June 2025.

The equal-weighted weighted version of the portfolio overtook the market cap-weighted version over the past month. Through the close of trading on 27 July 2026, the equal-weighted group of Thanksgiving Leftover stocks rise to 88.5% of their value recorded on 28 November 2025. That compares with the 87.4% valuation of the market-cap weighted version of the ten stock portfolio.

That's a change from most of the preceding seven months that had the market-cap weighted version of the 2025 Thanksgiving Leftover stock portfolio outperforming the equal-weighted version. It's also developed as the S&P 500 index itself has largely moved sideways, rising from 107.4% to 108.2% of its post-2025 Thanksgiving holiday valuation.

The following chart shows the performance of all three sets of stocks, with the two Thanksgiving Leftover stock indices continuing to lag behind the S&P 500 index by a wide margin.

Much of the gain of the equal-weighted version of the Thanksgiving Leftover stock index has come about because the three worst performing individual stocks in the portfolio, Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), Gartner (NYSE: IT), and The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) stopped falling and even rebounded a bit in the past month.

More significantly for the equal-weighted Leftover stocks, Factset Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) rose 23% over its level a month earlier.

At the same time, three stocks that account for 45% of the makeup of the market-cap version of the Thanksgiving Leftover stock portfolio, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV), and Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE: ARE), saw positive but smaller gains over the preceding month while the Leftover stocks' highest flyers, Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH), Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK), and Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) were little changed from where they were a month earlier, though they changed quite a bit in between!

The spaghetti chart tracks the relative movements of 2025's ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks with respect to their value on the day after 2025's Thanksgiving holiday.

Will the equal-weighted continue pulling ahead of the market-cap weighted version of the Thanksgiving Leftover portfolio? Or will the market-cap weighting win out? We'll next see where things stand near the end of August 2026.