How has the expected future changed for the quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the month since our previous snapshot?

As of 15 April 2026, the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends through the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 has improved considerably over the past month. Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed since our 13 March 2026 snapshot:

• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.21 to $19.77 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.25 to $20.48 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.27 to $20.38 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.55 to $21.74 per share

Not all the dividend futures data was rosy. On the day the dividend futures contract for 2026-Q1 ended on Friday, 20 March 2026, the expected dividend payout for 2026-Q1 plunged by $0.26 per share to a final value of $21.20 per share for the now-ended quarter.

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 March 2026 to 15 April 2026.

We're going to a rolling 13 quarter presentation for this chart, which for this edition, covers 2024-Q2 through 2027-Q1, and gives us a first look at the dividend expectations for 2027-Q2. The first projection of that most distant future quarter of this outlook is $20.06 per share, which is $0.29 higher than the $19.77 per share expected for the current quarter of 2026-Q2.

If this is your first exposure to the S&P 500's quarterly dividend futures, be sure to read the following section that explains what this data is communicating about the future for the index' dividends.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q2 began on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and will end on Friday, 19 June 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it qualifies as a future quarter.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Dividend futures data is important for more than just what they project will be a future quarter's dividend payout. They represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from holding their investments, which affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

U.S. Income Tax Day arrives on April 15 in 2026. And since you've probably been racing to complete your 2025 federal income tax returns, what better way could there be to celebrate the most dreaded day on the American calendar than by filling out yet another income tax form?

Before you start pounding the back button or swiping left, there's nothing for you to worry about! You won't have to pay any more income taxes than what you already have reported on whichever version of IRS Form 1040 you're filing this year. Instead, we've built the following tool to transport you in time back to 1913, where our tool will estimate how much your federal income taxes would be if that year's income tax rules still applied.

Why 1913? That's the year the Internal Revenue Service first issued its infamous Form 1040. We've modeled our tool after the first page of the original Form 1040, which back then, consisted of just four pages:

• The summary sheet modeled below (Page 1),
• the Gross Income calculation sheet (Page 2),
• the General Deductions sheet (Page 3), and finally,
• one page of Instructions (Page 4).

Yes, you read that right. Paying U.S. income taxes used to only require one page of instructions!

We'll make it even easier. All you need to do is to enter the indicated data (shown in boldface type, in the rows with a white background), using your figures from this year that should still be very fresh in your memory, and we'll take care of the math! The tool will display its calculated results in the rows with a gray background, where you won't have to worry about entering any values.

If you are accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click here to access a working version of the tool on our site. Now, if you're ready, let's get to it!...

Here are several excerpts from the instructions for filling out the original IRS Form 1040, which explain some of the math our tool is doing.

Excerpts from the Instructions

3. The normal tax of 1 per cent shall be assessed on the total net income less the specific exemption of $3,000 or $4,000 as the case may be. (For the year 1913, the specific exemption allowable is $2,500, or $3,333.33, as the case may be.) If, however, the normal tax has been deducted and withheld on any part of the income at the source, or if any part of the income is received as dividends upon the stock or from the net earnings of any corporation, etc., which is taxable upon its net income, such income shall be deducted from the individual's total net income for the purpose of calculating the amount of income on which the individual is liable for the normal tax of 1 per cent by virtue of this return.

19. An unmarried individual or a married individual not living with wife or husband shall be allowed an exemption of $3,000. When husband and wife live together they shall be allowed jointly a total exemption of only $4,000 on their aggregate income. They may make a joint return, both subscribing thereto, or if they have separate incomes, they may make separate returns; but in no case shall they jointly claim more than $4,000 exemption on their aggregate income.

Previously on Political Calculations

Haven't had enough taxes yet? Here's a couple of other tools that might be of interest to you!

• Your Paycheck in 2025

Image credit: Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta: "A greedy Uncle Sam wants to make Americans pay taxes".

In January 2026, new homes built in the United States clocked in at their most affordable level of the last four years.

This assessment is based on the following data points for the month:

• Median new home sale price: $400,500
• Median household income: $86,506
• Average 30-year conventional fixed mortgage rate: 6.10%

Of these three factors, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6.10% for January 2026 is the biggest contributor to the improvement in affordability. This is the lowest average monthly mortgage rate in the U.S. since September 2022.

At the same time, the median new home sale price of $400,500 ranks as the third-lowest median price recorded for new home prices in any month since July 2021, four months after Biden administration unleashed the high inflation that characterized the former President's term in office.

Meanwhile, median household income has risen to its highest level on record, even after adjusting for inflation.

Overall, these three things combined to make the monthly mortgage payment on a new home purchased at the nation's median sale price fall lower within the range of affordability in January 2026. The mortgage payment of a typical new home purchased in this month by a typical American household would consume 33.7% of its household income. The following chart shows where January 2026's affordability level fits within the data for this measure since January 2000:

Looking forward, the 30-year mortgage rate fell a little further in February 2026, providing a tailwind for affordability of the largest expense most American households have going into the month.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 19 March 2026. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 19 March 2026. 

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 12 April 2026. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image Credit: Wooden family figures and house with keys on table photo by IGOR LOLATTO on Unsplash.

Investors reacted positively to the after the market close news of a ceasefire between the Iran war combatants on 7 April 2026. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) bounced up 2.5% on the news the following day before proceeding to increase its gains in the remainder of the trading week. By the time the market closed on Friday, 10 April 2026, the index stood at 6,816.89, up a little under 3.6% from its previous week's level.

The news of the ceasefire had an immediate effect on oil prices. Crude oil futures (CL1:COM) had peaked at $117.62 per barrel earlier on 7 April 2026, but plunged at low as $94.62 after the announcement. Crude oil futures went on to spend most the rest of week in the mid-to-upper $90 per barrel range.

The drop in oil prices helped shape expectations for how the Federal Reserve will set interest rates in the U.S. While the CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to foresee no interest rate changes through the end of 2026, it does see a growing chance for a quarter point rate cut in 2027, with the most likely timing being near the end of 2027-Q2, three months earlier than projected in the preceding week.

In this latest update of the alternative futures chart, the S&P 500 is about four percent below the central trend line of the redzone forecast range we added to the chart after Friday, 20 February 2026.

We had added the redzone forecast range to the chart, fully shown in this version, to compensate for the year-old echoes of two major volatility events, which arise from the dividend futures-based model's use of historical stock prices as the base reference points for its projections of the future. In this case, that was the echoes from February 2025's DeepSeek AI shock and President Trump's April 2025's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. That redzone forecast range turned out to be ideally suited to use as a counterfactual to measure the impact of the Iran war geopolitical event on U.S. stock prices by indicating where they would reasonably have been in the absence of that event.

The rest is just keeping up with how the flow of news related to the Iran war's developments. Here are the week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 6 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US employment growth rebounded in March; unemployment rate falls to 4.3%
• Oil prices rise as US-Israeli war with Iran continues to disrupt supply
• OPEC+ agrees in principle on theoretical oil output increase
• US crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia, Europe compete for supply
• Fed minions not keeping up with oil producer plans, worry about inflation:
• Fed's Logan says US oil producers unlikely to provide near-term relief for consumers
• Operators rethink ‘stay the course’ as sustained $100 oil more probable
• Fed's Goolsbee, Hammack say inflation is flashing 'orange,' or worse
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Trump administration proposes expanding Chinese tech gear crackdown
• China's Space Pioneer says reusable rocket's maiden flight fails
• China's Xi urges faster development of new energy system
• IMF wants BOJ minions to keep turning the screws:
• IMF urges BOJ to keep raising rates even as Iran war poses new risks
• ECB minions say oil inflation may force them to drop perfect monetary policies:
• ECB's Stournaras says euro zone monetary policy will depend on size of energy disruption
• Wall Street ends higher as traders price in de-escalation, while Iran rejects ceasefire proposal
• Wall St ends higher as investors parse US-Iran negotiations, threats
• US to raise Medicare Advantage payments to insurers by 2.48% in 2027, insurance stocks surge

Tuesday, 7 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Physical oil prices hit record highs near $150 a barrel as Hormuz crisis worsens
• From falling U.S. wealth to Indian factory closures, oil shock raises global recession risk
• Fed minions not so sure what they'll do next with monetary policies, claim they're not bothered by not yet having a new chief minion:
• Goolsbee says stagflationary shock of Iran war puts Fed in a bind
• Fed's Jefferson sees risks to both employment, inflation
• Fed's Williams: FOMC leadership not in question amid slow Warsh confirmation
• Fed's Williams says Middle East war will drive up inflation - Bloomberg
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese pigs fed new menu as Beijing weans farmers off US soy
• China's central bank buys the most gold in a year as Iran war slashes prices
• China curbs domestic fuel price hike again to soften impact of surging oil prices
• BOJ minions hellbound to hike Japan's interest rates:
• BOJ to raise rates by July on mounting price pressure, ex-board member says
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone as ECB minions start to think they will need to ditch their perfect monetary policy:
• Euro zone growth slows to nine-month low on surging costs, PMI shows
• Inflation scars risk quickly lifting expectations; ECB must be ready to act: policymaker
• S&P 500, Nasdaq crawl out of red territory as Iran is reportedly reviewing two-week ceasefire deal
• Wall Street closes mixed, with signs of progress as Trump's Iran deadline draws near
• Why this oil rally isn’t crashing stocks—Deutsche Bank breaks it down

Wednesday, 8 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump announces two-week ceasefire as Iran says talks to begin soon
• Oil slides below $100 after Trump announces two-week ceasefire
• US banks could release $320 billion in capital with new draft rules, analysts say
• US mortgage rates edge down to 6.51%, MBA says
• Fed minions shocked to find rate cuts back on the table after Iran war ceasefire:
• Fed rate cut bets revived, a bit, by Iran war ceasefire
• Fed minutes of March meeting could flesh out how policymakers view war risks to economy
• Fed minutes show growing openness to rate hikes at March meeting
• Fed's Daly says US economic fundamentals in a 'good place'
• Bigger trouble, smaller stimulus developing in China:
• Trump threatens 50% tariffs on countries supplying Iran with weapons
• Global banks scale back China rate-cut calls, see policy rate on hold this year
• China's Xi urges demand-driven growth in services industry
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Germany's February industrial orders up, albeit far below forecasts
• Wall Street jumped over 2% and closed higher as U.S. and Iran agree to conditional ceasefire
• Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire

Thursday, 9 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil pares gains to close up 1% as Israel plans peace talks with Lebanon
• US labor market holds steady; inflation firmer before Iran war
• US PCE inflation picks up in February; consumer spending solid
• Iran war raises demand for US fuel, boosting Gulf Coast refining margins
• US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's car exports accelerate despite disruption from Mideast crisis
• China's March bank lending seen surging on post-holiday rebound
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• BOJ chief says Japan's financial conditions remain accommodative
• U.S. stocks gain for a second day while U.S.-Iran resolution is still uncertain
• Wall Street ends higher as Middle East peace talks lift sentiment

Friday, 10 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Inflation held sticky at 3% as U.S. headed into war with Iran, key Fed gauge shows
• US inflation tripled last month on record spike in gas prices
• VIEW March inflation report, first to show impact of war, is in line with expectations
• Oil ends lower ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, posts steepest weekly loss since 2022
• Fed minions point to tariffs contributing to inflation as it rises to hit their real target again, say it will take longer to lower it:
• Fed will need to explain why current inflation jump differs from 2022 surge
• Tariffs drove the bulk of core goods inflation, added 0.8% to core PCE, a Fed study finds
• Background:
• Tallying Up Tariffs: The Effect on Inflation
• What Is the Fed's Real Inflation Target?
• Exclusive: Fed's Daly says oil shock means getting inflation down takes longer
• Sudden inflation arrives in China:
• China's factories snap years-long deflation spell on Iran war price shock
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates again:
• Japan wholesale inflation jumps, BOJ vows vigilance to stagflation risk
• BOJ will set policy with eye on scale, length of Iran war shock, deputy governor says
• ECB minions excited for financial power grab in Eurozone:
• ECB backs EU plan to centralise financial supervision
• Wall St ends mixed, notches weekly gains as investors parse Middle East negotiations
• U.S. stocks take weekly gains despite continued Middle East conflict

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in the recently ended quarter of 2026-Q1 slowed to +1.3%, declining from the +1.6% growth anticipated a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a suit-wearing Wall Street bull looking relieved that oil prices are down and the S&P 500 is up, while a suit-wearing bear looks worried reading a newspaper with the headline 'WILL CEASE FIRE HOLD?' The scene takes place on a city street with skyscrapers in the background."

This photo is perhaps the most stunning astronomical visual from the Artemis II lunar fly-by mission.

Here's the official caption:

Captured by the Artemis II crew during their lunar flyby on April 6, 2026, this image shows the Moon fully eclipsing the Sun. From the crew’s perspective, the Moon appears large enough to completely block the Sun, creating nearly 54 minutes of totality and extending the view far beyond what is possible from Earth. We see a glowing halo around the dark lunar disk. The science community is investigating whether this effect is due to the corona, zodiacal light, or a combination of the two. Also visible are stars, typically too faint to see when imaging the Moon, but with the Moon in darkness stars are readily imaged. This unique vantage point provides both a striking visual and a valuable opportunity for astronauts to document their observations during humanity’s return to deep space. The faint glow of the nearside of the Moon is visible in this image, having been illuminated by light reflected off the Earth. Editor's note: This caption was updated on April 8, 2026, to reflect ongoing scientific observations and discussion about the image.

What the official caption omits is there are several planets photobombing the shot. If you look at the three brightest dots between the moon and the lower right hand corner of the image, from leftmost to rightmost, those are Saturn, Mars, and Mercury.

But that's not all. Neptune is hiding in between Saturn and Mars, too faint to be very visible at the image's resolution. If the image were slightly zoomed out, Venus would have been visible in the upper left corner, but falls out of the frame in this shot.