In January 2026, new homes built in the United States clocked in at their most affordable level of the last four years.

This assessment is based on the following data points for the month:

• Median new home sale price: $400,500
• Median household income: $86,506
• Average 30-year conventional fixed mortgage rate: 6.10%

Of these three factors, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6.10% for January 2026 is the biggest contributor to the improvement in affordability. This is the lowest average monthly mortgage rate in the U.S. since September 2022.

At the same time, the median new home sale price of $400,500 ranks as the third-lowest median price recorded for new home prices in any month since July 2021, four months after Biden administration unleashed the high inflation that characterized the former President's term in office.

Meanwhile, median household income has risen to its highest level on record, even after adjusting for inflation.

Overall, these three things combined to make the monthly mortgage payment on a new home purchased at the nation's median sale price fall lower within the range of affordability in January 2026. The mortgage payment of a typical new home purchased in this month by a typical American household would consume 33.7% of its household income. The following chart shows where January 2026's affordability level fits within the data for this measure since January 2000:

Looking forward, the 30-year mortgage rate fell a little further in February 2026, providing a tailwind for affordability of the largest expense most American households have going into the month.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 19 March 2026. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 19 March 2026. 

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 12 April 2026. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image Credit: Wooden family figures and house with keys on table photo by IGOR LOLATTO on Unsplash.

Investors reacted positively to the after the market close news of a ceasefire between the Iran war combatants on 7 April 2026. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) bounced up 2.5% on the news the following day before proceeding to increase its gains in the remainder of the trading week. By the time the market closed on Friday, 10 April 2026, the index stood at 6,816.89, up a little under 3.6% from its previous week's level.

The news of the ceasefire had an immediate effect on oil prices. Crude oil futures (CL1:COM) had peaked at $117.62 per barrel earlier on 7 April 2026, but plunged at low as $94.62 after the announcement. Crude oil futures went on to spend most the rest of week in the mid-to-upper $90 per barrel range.

The drop in oil prices helped shape expectations for how the Federal Reserve will set interest rates in the U.S. While the CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to foresee no interest rate changes through the end of 2026, it does see a growing chance for a quarter point rate cut in 2027, with the most likely timing being near the end of 2027-Q2, three months earlier than projected in the preceding week.

In this latest update of the alternative futures chart, the S&P 500 is about four percent below the central trend line of the redzone forecast range we added to the chart after Friday, 20 February 2026.

We had added the redzone forecast range to the chart, fully shown in this version, to compensate for the year-old echoes of two major volatility events, which arise from the dividend futures-based model's use of historical stock prices as the base reference points for its projections of the future. In this case, that was the echoes from February 2025's DeepSeek AI shock and President Trump's April 2025's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. That redzone forecast range turned out to be ideally suited to use as a counterfactual to measure the impact of the Iran war geopolitical event on U.S. stock prices by indicating where they would reasonably have been in the absence of that event.

The rest is just keeping up with how the flow of news related to the Iran war's developments. Here are the week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 6 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US employment growth rebounded in March; unemployment rate falls to 4.3%
• Oil prices rise as US-Israeli war with Iran continues to disrupt supply
• OPEC+ agrees in principle on theoretical oil output increase
• US crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia, Europe compete for supply
• Fed minions not keeping up with oil producer plans, worry about inflation:
• Fed's Logan says US oil producers unlikely to provide near-term relief for consumers
• Operators rethink ‘stay the course’ as sustained $100 oil more probable
• Fed's Goolsbee, Hammack say inflation is flashing 'orange,' or worse
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Trump administration proposes expanding Chinese tech gear crackdown
• China's Space Pioneer says reusable rocket's maiden flight fails
• China's Xi urges faster development of new energy system
• IMF wants BOJ minions to keep turning the screws:
• IMF urges BOJ to keep raising rates even as Iran war poses new risks
• ECB minions say oil inflation may force them to drop perfect monetary policies:
• ECB's Stournaras says euro zone monetary policy will depend on size of energy disruption
• Wall Street ends higher as traders price in de-escalation, while Iran rejects ceasefire proposal
• Wall St ends higher as investors parse US-Iran negotiations, threats
• US to raise Medicare Advantage payments to insurers by 2.48% in 2027, insurance stocks surge

Tuesday, 7 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Physical oil prices hit record highs near $150 a barrel as Hormuz crisis worsens
• From falling U.S. wealth to Indian factory closures, oil shock raises global recession risk
• Fed minions not so sure what they'll do next with monetary policies, claim they're not bothered by not yet having a new chief minion:
• Goolsbee says stagflationary shock of Iran war puts Fed in a bind
• Fed's Jefferson sees risks to both employment, inflation
• Fed's Williams: FOMC leadership not in question amid slow Warsh confirmation
• Fed's Williams says Middle East war will drive up inflation - Bloomberg
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese pigs fed new menu as Beijing weans farmers off US soy
• China's central bank buys the most gold in a year as Iran war slashes prices
• China curbs domestic fuel price hike again to soften impact of surging oil prices
• BOJ minions hellbound to hike Japan's interest rates:
• BOJ to raise rates by July on mounting price pressure, ex-board member says
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone as ECB minions start to think they will need to ditch their perfect monetary policy:
• Euro zone growth slows to nine-month low on surging costs, PMI shows
• Inflation scars risk quickly lifting expectations; ECB must be ready to act: policymaker
• S&P 500, Nasdaq crawl out of red territory as Iran is reportedly reviewing two-week ceasefire deal
• Wall Street closes mixed, with signs of progress as Trump's Iran deadline draws near
• Why this oil rally isn’t crashing stocks—Deutsche Bank breaks it down

Wednesday, 8 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump announces two-week ceasefire as Iran says talks to begin soon
• Oil slides below $100 after Trump announces two-week ceasefire
• US banks could release $320 billion in capital with new draft rules, analysts say
• US mortgage rates edge down to 6.51%, MBA says
• Fed minions shocked to find rate cuts back on the table after Iran war ceasefire:
• Fed rate cut bets revived, a bit, by Iran war ceasefire
• Fed minutes of March meeting could flesh out how policymakers view war risks to economy
• Fed minutes show growing openness to rate hikes at March meeting
• Fed's Daly says US economic fundamentals in a 'good place'
• Bigger trouble, smaller stimulus developing in China:
• Trump threatens 50% tariffs on countries supplying Iran with weapons
• Global banks scale back China rate-cut calls, see policy rate on hold this year
• China's Xi urges demand-driven growth in services industry
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Germany's February industrial orders up, albeit far below forecasts
• Wall Street jumped over 2% and closed higher as U.S. and Iran agree to conditional ceasefire
• Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire

Thursday, 9 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil pares gains to close up 1% as Israel plans peace talks with Lebanon
• US labor market holds steady; inflation firmer before Iran war
• US PCE inflation picks up in February; consumer spending solid
• Iran war raises demand for US fuel, boosting Gulf Coast refining margins
• US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's car exports accelerate despite disruption from Mideast crisis
• China's March bank lending seen surging on post-holiday rebound
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• BOJ chief says Japan's financial conditions remain accommodative
• U.S. stocks gain for a second day while U.S.-Iran resolution is still uncertain
• Wall Street ends higher as Middle East peace talks lift sentiment

Friday, 10 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Inflation held sticky at 3% as U.S. headed into war with Iran, key Fed gauge shows
• US inflation tripled last month on record spike in gas prices
• VIEW March inflation report, first to show impact of war, is in line with expectations
• Oil ends lower ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, posts steepest weekly loss since 2022
• Fed minions point to tariffs contributing to inflation as it rises to hit their real target again, say it will take longer to lower it:
• Fed will need to explain why current inflation jump differs from 2022 surge
• Tariffs drove the bulk of core goods inflation, added 0.8% to core PCE, a Fed study finds
• Background:
• Tallying Up Tariffs: The Effect on Inflation
• What Is the Fed's Real Inflation Target?
• Exclusive: Fed's Daly says oil shock means getting inflation down takes longer
• Sudden inflation arrives in China:
• China's factories snap years-long deflation spell on Iran war price shock
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates again:
• Japan wholesale inflation jumps, BOJ vows vigilance to stagflation risk
• BOJ will set policy with eye on scale, length of Iran war shock, deputy governor says
• ECB minions excited for financial power grab in Eurozone:
• ECB backs EU plan to centralise financial supervision
• Wall St ends mixed, notches weekly gains as investors parse Middle East negotiations
• U.S. stocks take weekly gains despite continued Middle East conflict

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in the recently ended quarter of 2026-Q1 slowed to +1.3%, declining from the +1.6% growth anticipated a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a suit-wearing Wall Street bull looking relieved that oil prices are down and the S&P 500 is up, while a suit-wearing bear looks worried reading a newspaper with the headline 'WILL CEASE FIRE HOLD?' The scene takes place on a city street with skyscrapers in the background."

This photo is perhaps the most stunning astronomical visual from the Artemis II lunar fly-by mission.

Here's the official caption:

Captured by the Artemis II crew during their lunar flyby on April 6, 2026, this image shows the Moon fully eclipsing the Sun. From the crew’s perspective, the Moon appears large enough to completely block the Sun, creating nearly 54 minutes of totality and extending the view far beyond what is possible from Earth. We see a glowing halo around the dark lunar disk. The science community is investigating whether this effect is due to the corona, zodiacal light, or a combination of the two. Also visible are stars, typically too faint to see when imaging the Moon, but with the Moon in darkness stars are readily imaged. This unique vantage point provides both a striking visual and a valuable opportunity for astronauts to document their observations during humanity’s return to deep space. The faint glow of the nearside of the Moon is visible in this image, having been illuminated by light reflected off the Earth. Editor's note: This caption was updated on April 8, 2026, to reflect ongoing scientific observations and discussion about the image.

What the official caption omits is there are several planets photobombing the shot. If you look at the three brightest dots between the moon and the lower right hand corner of the image, from leftmost to rightmost, those are Saturn, Mars, and Mercury.

But that's not all. Neptune is hiding in between Saturn and Mars, too faint to be very visible at the image's resolution. If the image were slightly zoomed out, Venus would have been visible in the upper left corner, but falls out of the frame in this shot.

Quite a lot has happened since the last time we looked at now the pace at which carbon dioxide is accumulating in the Earth's air is changing.

The reporting of atmospheric CO₂ concentration data collected at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory has been delayed, not just because of the Senate Democrats' government shutdown fiasco, but also because of staff changes at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The latest data that the NOAA used to routinely publish on or shortly after the fifth of each month hasn't been available on that schedule. At this writing, the CO₂ data is only available through February 2026.

That's okay this time around because it lets us present a timely snapshot of what the trend for that data was before the geopolitical event of the Iran War took place. The Iran War didn't begin until 28 February 2026, which means whatever disruptive impact it has had on oil and gas production, shipping, and consumption isn't yet included in the dataset.

The following chart shows how the rate at which carbon dioxide has been changing in the Earth's atmosphere from January 2000 through February 2026:

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data lags behind changes in CO₂ output from human activities, taking several weeks to diffuse into the Earth's air after being emitted. For example, the peak in January 2025 coincides with Chinese emissions peaking in December 2024, which itself coincides with efforts by China's exporters to crank up production to beat the clock on new U.S. trade tariffs going into effect in 2025. January 2025 saw the Biden administration final tariff increases go into effect, while President Trump's new tariffs were put into effect in April 2025. Not uncoincidentally, there's a short spike upward in May 2025 that would correspond with a surge by producers in China to beat the clock on April 2025's tariffs.

Since the atmosphere's pace of CO₂ accumulation peaked at 3.57 ppm in January 2025, it has fallen by a full 1.00 ppm to 2.57 ppm through February 2026. With an estimated world population of 8.005 billion people, that drop represents roughly a reduction of 7.8 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. It also represents an estimated $33.23 trillion decline in the world's GDP in the last 13 months.

China's reduced output of carbon dioxide emissions, primarily stemming from its involuntarily reduced industrial output, represents a large share of that overall decline. If not for the impact of the global tariff war, it is highly unlikely a decline of this magnitude would have occurred in the absence of a major global recession.

Or perhaps a highly disruptive geopolitical event, like the Iran War, which has an outsized scope. Our next few snapshots will give a measure of just how disruptive the Iran War has been for the Earth's economy.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. Data as of 5 March 2026.

Image Credit: CO2 Skywriting photo by Matthias Heyde on Unsplash.

The United States' top export to China is soybeans. That's why the news the U.S. and China had struck a trade deal at the end of October 2025 was so exciting, because it came with a commitment from China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S.-grown soybeans.

China's soybean buyers completed their purchases before the end of 2025, the bulk of which were exported in December 2025 and January 2026. But instead of giving a large boost to trade between the two nations, that increase in exports only delivered a small increase over the November 2025 low, with the boost offset by the falling level of trade of other goods.

In February 2026, the boost from the negotiated soybean sales to China ended and the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China fell to $26.9 billion. That level falls below the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic low for this data series.

The following chart shows that negative data trend for the monthly value of trade between the U.S. and China.

We had anticipated a larger boost to that overall trade from China's soybean purchases from the U.S., but that impact has proven to be disappointing.

It's clear the level of trade won't return to its pre-2025 tariff war levels anytime soon. The trailing twelve month average of that trade is $18.8 billion below our counterfactual projection of what the level of trade between the U.S. and China would look like in the absence of the trade war between them in February 2026.

That brings the decline in the trailing twelve month average of the direct trade between the U.S. and China to a cumulative loss of $108.5 billion in the value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China.

Meanwhile, reports indicate China is turning to alternatives to reduce its need to import large quantities of soybeans, which if successful, will negatively impact soybean farmers in both the U.S. and Brazil, the largest exporters of soybeans to China:

At the edge of one of the many pig farms spread across the vast, unbroken floodplains of Taizhou, a two-hour drive northwest of ​Shanghai, a pair of square, four-metre pools of acrid-smelling ochre liquid hold the key to cutting costly soybean use in half.

The pools hold a swill of cheaper, locally sourced ingredients, which ‌can include brans, pumpkin vines and wine lees. But it is fermented - like yogurt - so the proteins are already broken down and easy to digest, lessening the need for the higher-quality proteins in soy, 80% of which China imports....

The government sharply accelerated a drive ​to expand protein sources for livestock in March of last year, just as trade tensions ramped up early into President Donald Trump's second term. Soybeans quickly became a ⁠key bargaining chip.

Reuters interviews with dozens of livestock and feed producers, state researchers and industry experts revealed Beijing is moving faster than previously thought to deploy new technologies and promote fermented feed.

It's the agricultural equivalent of Beijing's campaign to build ​domestic capabilities in microchips and artificial intelligence, catalysed by Washington's stringent controls on advanced technology exports to China.

A permanent loss of soybean exports would further hammer the level of trade between the U.S. and China.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 19 February 2026.

Image Credit: Brown cardboard ampersand concrete statue inside an intermodal container photo by Jan Baborák on Unsplash.