In the last twelve months, the rolling twelve-month average price of an iconic can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup went from $1.28 in January 2025 and hovered around that level through September 2025, but has since fallen to $1.21 per can as of January 2026. The price has fallen as several grocery stores and grocery-selling retailers have offered significantly discounted sale prices in recent months.

Roughly speaking, the average price in January 2026 is about twelve times what a can of Campbell's Tomato Soup cost when it was first launched into the American marketplace in January 1898. At ten cents a can, it held at or near that price all the way up through the 1960s and into the early 1970s. At least, until President Nixon's price controls on food in August 1971 were lifted in April 1974, after which its price exploded as it caught up to that era's high inflation. Inflation similar to that unleashed by the Biden administration in 2021.

Here are the retail prices available to U.S. consumers in January 2026 at ten of the nation's largest grocery-selling retailers and how they've changed since our October 2025 snapshot:

• Walmart: $1.07/each, decrease of $0.17 (-13.7%)
• Amazon: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.26 (-20.6%)
• Kroger: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.50 (-33.3%)
• Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
• Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
• CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
• Albertsons: $1.29/each, decrease of $0.40 (-23.7%)
• Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
• H-E-B: $1.24/each, decrease of $0.07 (-5.3%)
• Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

These large price discounts are surprising. 2025 is a year in which tariffs were expected to contribute to inflation in the U.S. economy. For Campbell's Tomato Soup, that factor would have affected the price of the steel used to produce the soup cans for which The Campbell's Company (NYSE: CPB) has become famous, since they would be affected by the Trump administration's 25% tariff on imported steel.

But instead of increasing, the average price of a can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup remained largely steady until the last quarter of 2025. The Campbell's Company adjusted to the increased cost pressure from higher steel prices by seeking efficiencies throughout its production and supply chains. The end result of their efforts helped keep prices from rising as they might otherwise have in the absence of their cost reduction initiatives.

Our first chart presents our full price history for the retail price American consumers have encountered when shopping for a can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup from January 1898 through January 2026:

Since this chart spans an order of magnitude increase in the price of Campbell's Tomato Soup over its history, we have a chart showing how its price has changed over the last 128 years using a logarithmic scale, which makes it easier to see percentage changes over time.

Political Calculations has run a regular series about Campbell's Tomato Soup and how much it costs since 2015. We chose to research and flesh out the entire price history of this iconic product because it provides a unique window into how the effects of inflation have affected American consumers over time. What's more, you can follow this link to find our most recent coverage, which if its more than three months after this article was first posted, will be much more recent than this article!

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup is uniquely useful for assessing how inflation has affected prices over time because it has been consistently sold in grocery stores and supermarkets across the United States in the same size can ever since its introduction in January 1898. The company has sold its highly popular soup in a Number 1 (Picnic) size can that holds 10.75 fluid ounces throughout the product's history. Because it has, the effect of inflation on its cost to consumers cannot be hidden through marketing practices like shrinkflation, in which producers reduce the quantity of their product while keeping its shelf price the same.

It's also more than just the cost of soup on its own. Its cost includes the equipment to condense the soup by removing water without removing flavor so it can be cooked at consumer homes, which was vital to its commercial success. The steel and other materials that goes into the cans in which its packaged and preserved. The paper and ink for its trademark labeling. The specially developed tomatoes that make the base of the soup and the spices that flavor it. The fuel and vehicles it takes to transport it from where it's made to everywhere it's sold.

And of course, the ingenuity and labor of everyone from John T. Dorrance who invented the technology to make affordable condensed soups in 1897 to all the people who worked to make, distribute, sell, or who have invested their time and effort to improve and make it more efficiently in all the years since.

Because all these things go into making each of the 85 million cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup that American consumers buy every year, it also provides a window into seeing how things like steel tariffs affect how its price changes. Or how its price changes with recessions or pandemics.

Our analysis and coverage of those stories, and much more, are presented in chronological order in the following list of our articles on the topic of America's second-most popular soup.

• The Price of Campbell's Tomato Soup Since 1897 (2015)
• The Tomato Soup Standard (2015)
• The First Ad Ever for Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup (2015)
• War and Soup (2015)
• Working Backwards from Retail to Cost (2015)
• Early Advertising Milestones for Campbell's Condensed Soups
• Updated: The Price of Campbell's Tomato Soup Since 1897 (2016)
• Everyday Low Prices (2017)
• Soup and Recession (2017)
• Soup and Steel Tariffs (2018)
• Tomato Soup, Oil and Inflation (2018)
• Celebrating 150 Years of the Campbell's Soup Company (2019)
• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2020)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Sales Soar as Americans prep for Home Quarantines (2020)
• Campbell's Soup Presents "The Magic Shelf" (2020)
• The Price of Campbell's Tomato Soup in the Coronavirus Pandemic (2021)
• The Pandemic Price Escalation of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2021)
• Shrinkflation and a New Tool to Track Price Inflation in Real Time (2021)
• Absence of Discounts Confirms Tomato Soup Inflation (2021)
• The Ship of Theseus and Campbell's Tomato Soup (2021)
• The S&P 500 and Campbell's Tomato Soup (2021)
• Upward Price Pressure at the Start of Soup Season (2021)
• Recent Price Trends for Campbell's Tomato Soup (2021)
• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2022)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Prices Explode Higher (2022)
• Major Grocers Continue Hiking Tomato Soup Prices (2022)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Prices Keep Escalating (2022)
• Campbell's Soup to See Third Wave of Price Increases (2022)
• Amazon Hikes Campbell's Tomato Soup Prices (2022)
• Cost of Campbell's Tomato Soup Keeps Rising (2022)
• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2023)
• Inflation Slows for Campbell's Tomato Soup (2023)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Prices Stabilizing at Inflated Level (2023)
• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2024)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Price Resumes Inflationary Rise
• Tomato Soup Points to Continuing Slow Inflation
• Tomato Soup Prices Largely Stable at Elevated Level
• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2025)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Prices Holding Steady (2025)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Prices Facing Tariff Pressures (2025)
• Campbell's Tomato Soup Registers Small Price Decline (2025)
• The Price History of Campbell's Tomato Soup (2026)

Image credit: Cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup on sale at a Kroger-family grocery store on 9 January 2026 photo by Iron Man on Unsplash.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends through 2026 has not changed much since our previous snapshot of their future. But what change there has been is best described as "mixed".

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's dividends has changed in the past month for the final quarter of 2025 and the upcoming four quarters of 2026:

• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.05, finalizing at $19.86 per share
• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.04, rising to $21.50 per share
• 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.01, ticking down to $19.73 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.08, rising to $20.09 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.23, rising to $20.02 per share

Standard and Poor reports the cash dividends for the calendar quarter of 2026-Q4 is $20.26 per share. The difference between this value and the finalized dividend futures' value is attributable to the term mismatch between S&P's data and dividend futures contracts, which run on a slightly different schedule than the calendar quarters to which they apply (see the "More About Dividend Futures Data" section for more background).

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 December 2025 to 15 January 2026.

We're providing a bonus glimpse of the S&P 500's expected dividends for the distant future quarter of 2027-Q1, for which dividend futures currently anticipate a $21.33 per share cash payout. Since the end of that quarter is more than a year away, you can expect the expectations to change a lot for this quarter in the months ahead.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 March 2026.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

After closing out the preceding week at a record high, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) clocked a new record high close of 6,977.27 on Monday, 12 January 2026 before retreating a half percent to end the week at 6,940.01, about 0.4% below its previous week's close.

There really wasn't any single catalyst to prompt the retreat. Instead, the general flow of news during the week was mildly negative for the outlook of large publicly traded firms, with the result being that stock prices ended the week marginally lower.

For example, inflation news during the week that was did little to influence expectations for how U.S. interest rates will change during 2026. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), when it anticipates a quarter point rate cut. The tool forecasts another quarter point reduction on 28 October (2026-Q4), six weeks later than it forecast a week earlier.

Perhaps the biggest surprise during the week was President Trump putting potential new tariffs on the table on Friday, 16 January 2026 for European nations opposing U.S. negotiations to acquire the territory of Greenland from Denmark. Which considering how President Trump has transformed tariffs into a tool for the U.S.' international diplomacy over the last year isn't a terribly surprising development and did little to affect stock prices.

All in the all, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is right about in the middle of the redzone forecast range shown on the latest update of the alternative futures chart for 2026-Q1.

Here are the market moving headlines, such as they were, for the trading week ending on Friday, 16 January 2026.

Monday, 12 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump calls for one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%
• How Trump's proposed cap on credit card rates could reshape consumer lending
• Oil dips as investors assess Iran supply, Venezuelan export resumption
• US to push for quicker action in reducing reliance on China for rare earths
• Chief Fed minion claims to be subject of DOJ investigation:
• Trump team escalates attack on Fed's Powell with criminal indictment threat
• Powell says Trump administration has threatened him with a criminal indictment
• Behind the Scenes Steps Tied to the Investigation of Jay Powell
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's 2025 record export surge expected to slow in December
• Xi stresses the need to win the fight against corruption in China
• JapanGov minions looking to break reliance on rare earth materials from China:
• Japan sets sail on rare earth hunt as China tightens supplies
• S&P 500, Dow hit closing record highs; Walmart, tech climb
• Wall Street ended higher, shrugging off concerns over Powell investigation
• Spot gold rises more than 1% to hit all-time high at $4,563.61
• Shares in US credit card issuers slide after Trump calls for 10% rate cap
• Alphabet hits $4 trillion valuation as AI refocus lifts sentiment

Tuesday, 13 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Core CPI inflation comes in slightly cooler than expected in December
• US inflation stays at 2.7% in December
• Trump says inflation data means Fed can cut interest rates
• US new home sales fall marginally in October
• Oil prices surge on possible Iranian supply disruption
• WTI oil discount to Brent largest in eight months as more Venezuelan crude expected in US
• Current and former Fed minions back chief minion facing legal trouble, what chief Fed minion didn't say about his legal trouble:
• Musalem says Powell video was "very clear and very direct" - MNI Webcast
• Past three Fed chairs decry 'unprecedented' assault by Trump on Powell
• Three peculiarities about Jerome Powell’s statement
• Fed minions say their monetary policy is 'well-positioned', not sure what to make of rising productivity in U.S.:
• Fed's Williams says monetary policy well positioned amid a favorable outlook
• Fed officials cautious about rising productivity's contribution to inflation fight
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Trump announces 25% tariff on countries ‘doing business’ with Iran
• Wall Street ends in the red as retail inflation comes in slightly cooler, earnings fail to lift sentiment
• Wall Street falls with financials amid credit card rate plan
• Wall St slips on credit card proposal, rate bets boost gold

Wednesday, 14 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US producer prices increase moderately in November
• US banking giants reap bigger profits as borrowers seek more loans
• US existing home sales accelerate in December
• Oil climbs on concerns over potential Iranian supply disruption
• Trump imposes 25% tariff on imports of some advanced computing chips
• Fed minions debate when and how much to cut rates next:
• Fed's Miran says Trump's deregulation will help lower inflation, justifying rate cuts
• Fed's Barkin calls December inflation data encouraging
• Fed's Kashkari tells NYT it is 'way too soon' to cut rates
• Fed's Kashkari upbeat on 2026, expects inflation to moderate
• Fed's Paulson reiterates more rate cuts could follow moderating in inflation
• Trump imposes 25% tariff on imports of some advanced computing chips
• Bigger trouble in the form of new U.S. tariffs developing in China:
• China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite tariff jolt
• China blames US for trade imbalances as surplus hits record $1.2tn
• China's vehicle sales, exports set to cool in 2026
• BOJ minions won't fight for Powell, have bigger problems to deal with:
• BOJ puts self defense ahead of solidarity with Fed's Powell
• Japan’s Takaichi to call snap election
• Yen tumbles and Japan stocks soar as election talk reignites ‘Takaichi trade’
• Wall Street ends lower, led by drop in Nasdaq, with tech, banks falling
• Big Tech stocks fall as broader market sees red
• Gold, silver and copper prices hit new highs as global tensions mount

Thursday, 15 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns
• US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage drops to near 3-1/2-year low of 6.06%
• US reaches trade deal with Taiwan that could boost US chipmakers
• Trump says no critical minerals tariffs for now, will seek overseas supplies
• US farm economy shows widening cracks as costs rise, jobs vanish
• Fed minions say they are fighting inflation pretty darn well:
• Goolsbee tells CNBC lowering inflation is Fed's main job
• Fed's Daly: policy in good place, calibration should be deliberate
• Fed's Schmid: Cutting rates could make inflation worse
• BOJ minions game-planning next rate hikes, on guard against collapse in Japan's currency:
• BOJ to raise rates again to 1% or higher by end-September, possibly by July
• Fears of BoJ intervention keeps dollar/yen below 160
• Bessent urges 'sound' BOJ policy to address excess FX volatility
• ECB minions cooperating with Fed minions, say their banking rules are right but need to be balanced, while Germany's economy may have hit bottom in the Eurozone:
• ECB's de Guindos: Fed cooperation is 'business as usual'
• ECB's de Guindos says bank valuations show supervisory approach is right
• ECB's De Guindos says "balanced" approach needed on Basel 3 bank rules
• German economy breaks 2-year slide with modest 2025 growth
• Wall Street ended higher as chip stocks climbed and Trump paused critical mineral tariffs
• Wall Street ends up as banks gain following results; chips rally with TSMC
• TSMC smashes forecasts with record profit, flags more US factories

Friday, 16 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices settle up as US begins holiday weekend
• "Emergency Intervention": Trump To Cap Residential Electric Bills By Forcing Tech Giants To Pay For Soaring Power Costs
• White House seeks emergency power auction for largest US electric grid
• Trump Says Wants To Keep "Hassett Where He Is" Sending Warsh Fed Chair Odds Soaring; Gold Slides
• Fed minions keep claiming they've achieved the perfect monetary policy for 2026's economy, some worry rate cuts will be needed to boost jobs:
• Fed's Jefferson says current policy stance 'well positioned'
• Fed should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risks, Bowman says
• Bigger carbon dioxide emissions developing in China:
• China Leads Global Coal Power Additions Despite Renewables Push
• BOJ minions thinking about surprising markets by hiking Japan's interest rates sooner:
• Exclusive: Some in BOJ see scope to raise rates sooner than markets expect
• U.S. stocks post marginal losses, notch weekly decline
• Wall Street ends flat ahead of long weekend; S&P 500 down for week

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimates real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 ticked up to +5.3% from the +5.1% growth it was anticipating on 9 January 2026.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching the news and worrying over it".

Mathematician Paul Erdős died nearly 30 years ago, but left behind a massive legacy. Famously known for his collaborations with other mathematicians and his eccentric practice of showing up unannounced to their doorsteps and staying only as long as they provided him with interesting challenges to ponder, the prolific mathematician left behind 1,135 problems for succeeding mathematicians to advance the field by either proving or disproving them.

In the last few months, three of those problems have been cracked by Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems harnessed with the well established Lean proof assistant. NeuronDaily tells the story of the third, which is impressive because there was little-to-no online material the AI system could have accessed to develop its proof, which means the AI paired with a proof assistant is generating genuinely original work:

Remember those brain-teaser math problems from school that made you want to throw your pencil? Now imagine ones so hard they've stumped mathematicians for decades. Paul Erdős, who published more papers than anyone in math history, left behind hundreds of these puzzles when he died in 1996. This weekend, GPT-5.2 Pro solved one.

Neel Somani prompted the AI to tackle Erdős Problem #397, which asks whether infinitely many solutions exist for a specific equation involving central binomial coefficients. GPT-5.2 generated the proof, the tool Aristotle formalized it in Lean (a verification language), and Fields Medalist Terence Tao accepted it.

Here's Neel Somani's X tweet announcing the accomplishment:

NeuronDaily explains why the proof of Erdős Problem #397 is a big deal:

It’s part of a wave of autonomous solves: GPT-5.2 has now cracked Problem #728, #729, and 397.

Verified mathematics: The Aristotle system auto-corrected gaps in proofs and produced Lean-verified code.

Self-contained reasoning: Unlike October 2025's GPT-5 controversy (which just found existing literature), Tao says these are original proofs.

While impressive for the technology, the new proofs don't yet represent the kind of ground-breaking accomplishment that would permanently leave human mathematicians in the dust.

The catch? Tao emphasizes these are “lowest hanging fruit”; problems solvable with standard techniques, not profound breakthroughs. GPT-5.2 scores 77% on competition-level math but only 25% on open-ended research requiring genuine insight.

Three years ago, having any computing system score 77% on competition-level math would have been a remarkable achievement, but scoring 25% on open-ended research was a pipe dream. Considering the amazing progress that's been made with the use of AI in maths in just the past three years, what lies in store for the next three years?

Image credit: Paul Erdős and Terrence Tao in 1985. Wikimedia Commons. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic Deed. We were surprised that Erdős collaborated with Tao when the latter was just 10 years old! Terence Tao, of course, went on to have an equally remarkable career and has an Erdős Number of 2.

The new home affordability crisis is showing signs of ending for the first time in nearly three-and-a-half years. The median sale price of a new home sold in the United States has dropped below the upper threshold of affordability that determines whether the typical American household can afford the monthly mortgage payment on the typical new home sold in the U.S.

That threshold is defined by having a mortgage payment that represents no more than 36% of household income, which lenders have historically used to determine whether they will loan money to a household that has no other debt. For October 2025, a household earning the median household income would that bought a new home at the month's median sale price of $392,300 would see their mortgage payment consume 34% of their monthly household income, which puts the typical new home within affordable reach.

For households that do carry other debt, lenders prefer their monthly mortgage payments consume no more than 28% of their pre-tax household income to ensure they have financial resilience to deal with unexpected expenses when their mortgage payments fall below these affordability thresholds. At 34% of its monthly household income, the median new home sold in October 2025 would be affordable for median income-earning households that carry low levels of other debt, the first time that's even been possible since March 2022.

The latest update of our chart tracks the changing relative affordability of the typical new home sold in the U.S. is for the typical American household with respect to the mortgage lending industry's key affordability thresholds from January 2000 through October 2025.

The National Association of Realtors explains the main factor why new homes have suddenly dropped into the range of affordability:

Prices for newly built homes fell to a four-year low in the fall as builders cut prices, according to a report delayed by the government shutdown.

The median sales price for new homes that went under contract in October was $392,300, down 8% from a year earlier and the lowest level since 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on Tuesday.

New-home prices have been trending down since late 2022, after the affordability crisis priced many potential buyers out of the market. Homebuilders responded by cutting prices and boosting incentives.

This month, 40% of builders reported cutting prices, while 67% reported using sales incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, according to the leading survey of homebuilder sentiment.

Meanwhile, sales of new homes improved year-over-year as mortgage rates were also lower on average in October 2025, contributing to the improved affordability of new homes for the typical American household:

Sales of new single-family houses were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000 in October, little changed from the prior month but up 19% from a year earlier.

Transactions rose as falling mortgage rates and prices both contributed to making new homes more affordable for prospective homebuyers.

Mortgage rates averaged 6.25% in October, down from 6.43% in October 2024, according to Freddie Mac.

The average price of a new home sold in October 2025 was $498,000, which was three percent higher than September 2025's average sale price of $483,500.

Looking at what that means for new home builders, we find time-shifted (centered) trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold in the United States is $29.11 billion. We find the lower sale prices of new homes is contributing to an upward trend in the number of sales, but we find the average sale price of a new home is relatively stable, or flat.

The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through October 2025.

Rising trend for new home sales

Rising trend for average home prices

Following up our coverage of August 2025's potential statistical fluke increase in the number of new home sales, revisions to the sales data released on 13 January 2026 confirms the August 2025 sales figures were indeed a fluke.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 13 January 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 13 January 2025. 

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon featuring a real estate agent meeting a young family that earns the median household income who tells them they can afford to buy a new home, a calendar in the room shows it is October 2025", followed by a second prompt to "Make the family's expression happy and make the cartoon more colorful."