The dividend outlook for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) took a turn toward lower dividend growth across all upcoming quarters for which dividend futures are available in our September 2026 snapshot of their outlook.

Projected dividends for each quarter from the current fourth quarter of 2026 through the third quarter of 2027 fell back from the levels projected by the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index a month earlier.

Here is the summary of how the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends changed between 14 September and 14 October 2026:

• 2026-Q4: Decrease of $0.04 to $21.57 per share
• 2027-Q1: Decrease of $0.21 to $22.64 per share
• 2027-Q2: Decrease of $0.22 to $21.44 per share
• 2027-Q3: Decrease of $0.23 to $21.62 per share

Dividend futures for 2027-Q4 have become available since our September 2026 snapshot. The initial projection of the S&P 500's dividends in that distant future quarter is $21.64 per share.

The following chart illustrates the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as of 14 September 2026 and how they compare with the preceding quarters going back to 2024-Q4.

More About Dividend Futures

Dividend futures represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.

Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q4 began on Saturday, 19 September 2026 and runs through Friday, 18 December 2026. The next quarter of 2027-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 19 December 2026 and will run through Friday, 19 March 2027.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The dividend outlook for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) turned negative for the current quarter of 2026-Q3 since our August 2026 snapshot.

Projected dividends for 2026-Q3 dropped $0.37 per share during the intervening month. The CME Group's S&P 500 dividend futures for the quarter dropped to $20.65 per share as higher dividends that previously had been expected failed to materialize. Even so, the dividend futures data indicates 2026-Q3's dividends will still register around a dollar per share increase year-over-year by the time 2026-Q3's dividend futures contracts finally expire.

Meanwhile, the outlook for more distant future quarters was more positive. Dividends in each of the upcoming quarters from 2026-Q4 through 2027-Q3 now expected to be slightly higher than what dividend futures forecast last month.

Here is the summary of how the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends changed between 14 August and 14 September 2026:

• 2026-Q3: Decrease of $0.37 to $20.65 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.06 to $21.61 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.04 to $22.85 per share
• 2027-Q2: Increase of $0.06 to $21.66 per share
• 2027-Q3: Increase of $0.04 to $21.85 per share

The following chart illustrates the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as of 14 September 2026 and how they compare with the preceding quarters going back to 2024-Q3.

More About Dividend Futures

Dividend futures represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.

Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q3 began on Saturday, 20 June 2026 and will officially end on Friday, 18 September 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it counts as a future quarter all the way up through that future point in time. The next quarter of 2026-Q4 will then begin on Saturday, 19 September 2026 and will run through Friday, 18 December 2026.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The dividend outlook of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) once again delivered a mixed outlook for investors in August 2026.

Expected dividends for the index dipped in the current quarter of 2026-Q3, but the amount of cash dividends expected to be paid out in the upcoming future quarters of 2026-Q4 and 2027-Q1 increased. The more distant future quarters of 2027-Q2 and 2027-Q3 however both declined with respect to the July 2026 snapshot of the S&P 500's dividend outlook.

All these changes however are modest, with the magnitude of the changes for each quarter coming in at less than one percent. Here is the summary of how the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends changed between 14 July and 14 August 2026:

• 2026-Q3: Decrease of $0.11 to $21.02 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.10 to $21.55 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.06 to $22.81 per share
• 2027-Q2: Decrease of $0.15 to $21.60 per share
• 2027-Q3: Decrease of $0.11 to $21.81 per share

The following chart illustrates the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as of 14 August 2026 and how they compare with the preceding quarters going back to 2024-Q3.

More About Dividend Futures

Dividend futures represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.

Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q3 began on Saturday, 20 June 2026 and will officially end on Friday, 18 September 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it counts as a future quarter all the way up through that future point in time.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The dividend outlook of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had a mixed outcome for July 2026. Dividends expected to be paid in the now current quarter of 2026-Q3 are slightly lower than what had been anticipated in our June 2026 snapshot, but the farther future showed continued strength as expected dividends increased.

Here is our tally of how the expected future changed in the month from 15 June to 14 July 2026:

• 2026-Q2: Finalized at $20.72 per share (unchanged).
• 2026-Q3: Decrease of $0.09 to $21.13 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.05 to $21.45 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.18 to $22.75 per share
• 2027-Q2: Increase of $0.19 to $21.75 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 June 2026 to 14 July 2026.

The initial estimate of dividends expected to be paid out to S&P 500 investors for the distant future quarter of 2027-Q3 is $21.92 per share.

More About Dividend Futures

Dividend futures represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.

Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q3 began on Saturday, 20 June 2026 and will officially end on Friday, 18 September 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it counts as a future quarter all the way up to its end.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

June 2026 saw strong, across-the-board improvement in the outlook for the quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) over our snapshot of where they stood just a month earlier.

Impressively, the current quarter of 2026-Q2 saw the biggest month-over-month gain. Here is how the outlook for it and all the other quarters for which we have S&P 500 future dividends data changed since our 15 May 2026 snapshot:

• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.90 to $20.72 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.28 to $21.22 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.57 to $21.40 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.36 to $22.57 per share
• 2027-Q2: Increase of $0.37 to $21.56 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 May 2026 to 15 June 2026.

Dividend futures data represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from owning shares of stocks, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices as represented by the value of the S&P 500 index is described by this math.

The S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of the 502 stocks for the largest U.S.-based publicly traded companies in the U.S. stock market according to their market capitalization that meet S&P Global's criteria for inclusion in the index. There are more than 500 stocks in the index because it also includes multiple classes of shares issued by Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL and GOOG), Fox (Nasdaq: FOX and FOXA), and Newscorp (Nasdaq: NWS and NWSA).

As of 15 June 2026, 409 of these stocks pay dividends, covering about 81.5% of all the stocks in the index. Dividend futures for the index indicate the market capitalization-weighted amount of dividends per share for all these dividend-paying stocks that are expected to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts. These contracts start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q2 began on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and will officially end on this Friday, 19 June 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it counts as a future quarter all the way up to its end.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

How has the expected future changed for the quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in the month since our previous snapshot?

As of 15 April 2026, the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends through the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 has improved considerably over the past month. Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed since our 13 March 2026 snapshot:

• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.21 to $19.77 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.25 to $20.48 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.27 to $20.38 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.55 to $21.74 per share

Not all the dividend futures data was rosy. On the day the dividend futures contract for 2026-Q1 ended on Friday, 20 March 2026, the expected dividend payout for 2026-Q1 plunged by $0.26 per share to a final value of $21.20 per share for the now-ended quarter.

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 March 2026 to 15 April 2026.

We're going to a rolling 13 quarter presentation for this chart, which for this edition, covers 2024-Q2 through 2027-Q1, and gives us a first look at the dividend expectations for 2027-Q2. The first projection of that most distant future quarter of this outlook is $20.06 per share, which is $0.29 higher than the $19.77 per share expected for the current quarter of 2026-Q2.

If this is your first exposure to the S&P 500's quarterly dividend futures, be sure to read the following section that explains what this data is communicating about the future for the index' dividends.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q2 began on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and will end on Friday, 19 June 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it qualifies as a future quarter.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Dividend futures data is important for more than just what they project will be a future quarter's dividend payout. They represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from holding their investments, which affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends dimmed since previous snapshot of their future. For all five quarters in our forecast window, all showed decreases though of varying amounts.

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share has changed in the past month for the current quarter of 2026-Q1, the remaining three quarters of 2026, and the first quarter of 2027:

• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.25, falling to $21.46 per share
• 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.08, dipping to $19.62 per share
• 2026-Q3: Decrease of $0.05, ticking down to $20.28 per share
• 2026-Q4: Decrease of $0.30, dropping to $20.12 per share
• 2027-Q1: Decrease of $0.40, declining to $21.20 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 February 2026 to 13 March 2026.

In the next edition of this series, we'll show 2026-Q1 as finalized and will add 2027-Q2 to the outlook. If the outlook for dividends continues to dim, we'll have to drag out our old thesaurus to find new expressions to describe the negative changes since we blew through all the ones we keep on ready standby for this edition.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end later this week, on Friday, 20 March 2026. The upcoming quarter of 2026-Q2 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and end on Friday, 19 June 2026.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends generally improved since previous snapshot of their future. For the five quarters in our forecast window, four showed solid gains, while one had a small decline.

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share has changed in the past month for the current quarter of 2026-Q1, the remaining three quarters of 2026, and the first quarter of 2027:

• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.21, rising to $21.71 per share
• 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.03, dipping to $19.70 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.24, rising to $20.33 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.40, rising to $20.42 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.27, rising to $21.60 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 January 2025 to 13 February 2026.

As a general rule, the further out the forecast, the more subject to change the dividends will be before they are finalized at the end of their indicated quarter. Be sure to read the following section providing more information about dividend futures data to get a better understanding of what this information represents.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 March 2026, one month from today.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

Or we did, up until this month. The man behind the data we've visualized for this feature, Standard and Poor's Howard Silverblatt, retired on 31 January 2026 after 48 years, 8 months, 14 days at S&P!

Benedek Vörös, S&P Dow Jones' Index Investment Strategy Director, marked the career milestone just before Howard's final day on the job:

This week has given the markets plenty to digest. But for many of us at S&P Dow Jones Indices, the most significant data point isn't on the tape. It’s on the calendar. Tomorrow marks the final day of Howard Silverblatt’s legendary 49-year tenure at our firm. For five decades, Howard’s definitive voice tracked the ebb and flow of the world’s most prominent index with a precision that turned financial math into a narrative art form. Whether he was breaking down S&P 500®, buyback yields for the Wall Street Journal or explaining the compounding power of dividends on CNBC, Howard taught a generation of investors that while price is what you pay, the underlying cash flow is what you get.

We hope S&P continues regularly publishing the data series Howard routinely made freely available at the S&P 500's official home on the internet. Including the earnings expectations we're featuring in this article.

Although we pulled the data on 13 February 2026 and referenced that date in the following chart, our Winter 2026 snapshot was really taken on 31 January 2026 and has been pulled from Howard's final Earnings & Estimates spreadsheet, which he posted on his last day on the job! The following chart presents how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through the end of January 2026:

The earnings outlook has substantially improved since our Fall 2025 snapshot. Earnings for the final quarter of 2025 are still being reported, but the S&P 500's trailing year earnings per share rose from $244.51 to $246.47 per share. Looking further forward, the index' forecast trailing year earnings per share through the end of 2026 saw robust improvements, rising from $281.78 to $294.00 as the outlook for earnings improved.

It's quite an impressive earnings outlook to go out on. Howard Silverblatt picked his exit date well!

At this writing, we don't know S&P's plans regarding whether it will continue publishing this data series or others that Howard maintained, such as S&P's monthly Divstat data that continued a long tradition of publishing the U.S. stock market's dividend metadata that extends back to January 1929, when a young firm then known as Standard Statistics began the practice and made it available to the Associated Press! We hope they do, because that's a big part of what made the firm that became Standard & Poor a trusted source of information conveying how the stock market is performing over the years.

For the last 49 years of its history, Howard Silverblatt tracked and presented the market data that sustained that hard-earned trust. He's left behind some very big shoes to fill.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 31 January 2026. Accessed 13 February 2026. Over the years, this spreadsheet captured a lot of Howard's personality, occasionally featuring photos or other observations that made it stand apart from the dry presentation of financial data that's common in the finance industry.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends through 2026 has not changed much since our previous snapshot of their future. But what change there has been is best described as "mixed".

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's dividends has changed in the past month for the final quarter of 2025 and the upcoming four quarters of 2026:

• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.05, finalizing at $19.86 per share
• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.04, rising to $21.50 per share
• 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.01, ticking down to $19.73 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.08, rising to $20.09 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.23, rising to $20.02 per share

Standard and Poor reports the cash dividends for the calendar quarter of 2026-Q4 is $20.26 per share. The difference between this value and the finalized dividend futures' value is attributable to the term mismatch between S&P's data and dividend futures contracts, which run on a slightly different schedule than the calendar quarters to which they apply (see the "More About Dividend Futures Data" section for more background).

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 December 2025 to 15 January 2026.

We're providing a bonus glimpse of the S&P 500's expected dividends for the distant future quarter of 2027-Q1, for which dividend futures currently anticipate a $21.33 per share cash payout. Since the end of that quarter is more than a year away, you can expect the expectations to change a lot for this quarter in the months ahead.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 March 2026.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends through 2026 has improved in the month since we last presented our previous snapshot of their future. For the most part, they have improved with the 2026-Q1 looking to show the biggest jump.

Before we go any farther, we're referring to future quarters as they apply to dividend futures contracts, not regular calendar quarters! For dividend futures contracts, 2026-Q1 begins on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on the third Friday of March 2026.

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's dividends has changed in the past month for the final quarter of 2025 and the upcoming four quarters of 2026:

• 2025-Q4: Decrease of $0.03, declining to $19.91 per share
• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.57, rising to $21.46 per share
• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.01, rising to $19.74 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.14, rising to $20.01 per share
• 2026-Q4: No change, holding at $19.79 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 14 November 2025 to 15 December 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

This is our last update for 2025, our next snapshot will be taken in mid-January 2026. Because it will soon be very relevant, be sure to read the "More About Dividend Futures Data" section, which explains why the quarterly dividends Standard and Poor will report for the S&P 500 are different from dividend futures data. We anticipate S&P will report the index' quarterly dividends for the calendar quarter of 2025-Q4 early in 2026.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on this Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2026-Q1 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 20 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The S&P 500's dividend outlook for the final quarter of 2025 brightened in the month since our last snapshot of their outlook.

On 15 October 2025, the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes indicated investors could expect to collect $19.90 per share during the period covered by 2025-Q4 dividend futures contracts. On Friday, 14 November 2025, that rose to $19.94 per share, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month's outlook.

Our October 2025 snapshot also presented the projections for the S&P 500's dividends per share through the second quarter of 2026. Here is how the dividends expected in the future quarters of 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 changed in the past month:

• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.01, dipping to $20.89 per share
• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.73 per share

For this dividend snapshot, we're extending the outlook for the S&P 500's expected dividends per share through the fourth quarter of 2026. The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q4.

A note of caution on the dividend projection for 2026-Q4. Because it covers expectations that are currently more than four quarters into the future, it's best understood as an initial projection based on very thin trading at this point of time. The projection for this quarter can be expected to change once it falls within the typical year-ahead period that defines the typical time horizon for investors and the investment activity for its related dividend futures contract picks up.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

For Fall 2025, our snapshot was taken on 12 November 2025, 91 days after the Summer 2025 snapshot. The outlook for earnings improved since last quarter's snapshot, continuing a positive trend since Spring 2025.

The current projection for the S&P 500's earnings per share through the end of 2025 is $244.51, which would represent a 16.3% year-over-year gain over December 2024's finalized earnings of $210.17.

The following chart, covering how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through 12 November 2025:

Looking further forward through the end of 2026, Standard & Poor projects the S&P 500's earnings will be $281.78 per share. If this projection holds, it would represent a little over a 15% year-over-year increase over the current earnings projection for 2025.

But will it hold? There's a lot of time between now and the end of December 2026 and if there's one thing the chart makes clear, it's very unlikely the earnings recorded then will match what they were projected to be four quarters earlier!

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 12 November 2025. Accessed 15 November 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 saw small changes in the month since we last presented a snapshot of their future. The changes were mixed overall, with the total change over all future quarters we previously covered netting out to zero.

Our last snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes was taken on 15 September 2025. The new snapshot is from Wednesday, 15 October 2025. Here is a short summary of the changes over the month-long interval between the snapshots:

• 2025-Q3: Finalized at $19.64 per share, no change.
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.90 per share
• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.02, dipping to $20.90 per share

We're also introducing the outlook for the second quarter of 2026 in our presentation this month, for which the CME Group's futures project quarterly dividends of $19.72 per share.

The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2023-Q1 through 2026-Q2.

Overall, the dividend outlook in future quarters is improving over time, with the projections for each quarter coming in higher than the same quarter in preceding years. At the same time, the projected rate of dividend growth for future quarters is slowing.

We've focused on presenting the dividend futures data for the current quarter (2025-Q4) and the next two quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2) because the S&P 500 investors have focused their attention on these quarters in recent weeks.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 has changed in the month since we presented our previous snapshot of their future. They have changed for both the worse and for the better since we took that snapshot just over a month ago.

The change for the worse applies to the current quarter of 2025-Q3, while the change for the better holds for the fourth and final quarter of 2025.

Our last snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes was taken on 13 August 2025. The new snapshot is from Monday, 15 September 2025. Here is our text summary of how they changed:

• 2025-Q3: Decrease of $0.17, declining to $19.64 per share
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.03, rising to $19.88 per share

The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 August 2025 to 15 September 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

As a special bonus, here's how the S&P 500's dividends expected in the first quarter of 2026 changed!

• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.20, rising to $20.94 per share

If that expectation holds, it will represent a year-over-year increase of $0.61 per share, or three percent, over 2025-Q1's finalized $20.33 per share.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q3 began on Saturday, 21 June 2025 and will end on this Friday, 19 September 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q4 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 22 September 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.