The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends generally improved since previous snapshot of their future. For the five quarters in our forecast window, four showed solid gains, while one had a small decline.
Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share has changed in the past month for the current quarter of 2026-Q1, the remaining three quarters of 2026, and the first quarter of 2027:
- 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.21, rising to $21.71 per share
- 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.03, dipping to $19.70 per share
- 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.24, rising to $20.33 per share
- 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.40, rising to $20.42 per share
- 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.27, rising to $21.60 per share
The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 January 2025 to 13 February 2026.
As a general rule, the further out the forecast, the more subject to change the dividends will be before they are finalized at the end of their indicated quarter. Be sure to read the following section providing more information about dividend futures data to get a better understanding of what this information represents.
More About Dividend Futures Data
For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.
Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 March 2026, one month from today.
Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.
How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.
Labels: dividends, forecasting, SP 500
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