We've decided to celebrate the National League's first All-Star Game victory in 14 years today by posting a brand new tool you can use to predict what your team's winning percentage will be for the season!
The math behind our tool was developed by physics professor Kerry Whisnant of Iowa State University, who found in a 2010 paper that the combination of a team's average Runs Scored Per Game (RPG) and Slugging Percentage (SLG), both produced by its batters and given up by its pitching, can be used to accurately anticipate what its winning record will be.
Here's the data you'll need to gather for your team, with the links will take you to where you can get it for any team in the major leagues:
- Runs Scored: For Your Team and Against Your Team
- Slugging Percentage: For Your Team and Against Your Team
The only other variable we'll consider is the Number of Games Played, which should make it easy to compare the results of Whisnant's math with your team's winning record in the current season. We'll also project your team's final win-loss record assuming they keep playing the way they have been throughout the rest of the regular 162 game season.
Just enter your team's data in the tool - we'll take care of the rest!
Our default data is for the Arizona Diamondbacks who, despite having a very competitive offense where the stats are concerned, is at the bottom of the league in pitching.
Here at the 2010 All-Star break, we find the team's actual record stands at 34 wins and 55 losses, which is dead on target for our tool's predicted results. If the team continues on its established course, the D-Backs will finish the season with 100 losses.
By contrast, substituting the New York Yankees' data, we find that the tool's results of 57 wins and 31 losses are within one game of correctly predicting the Yankees' current record of 56 wins and 32 losses. If the Yankees' continue on the same path they established in the first half of the 2010 season, the tool anticipates the team will win 105 games.
Previously on Political Calculations
- A Proposal for Making Baseball's All-Star Game Worthwhile
- The Most Valuable Brands in Baseball
- Should the Boss Get Sacked? Again?
- Rediscovering Nature: Camouflage
- Sports Stadium Stimuli
- Horseconomics
- How Many Hours of Sports Can You Watch (Without Her Getting Angry)?
Labels: sports
Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:
ironman at politicalcalculations
Thanks in advance!
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