Unexpectedly Intriguing!
July 28, 2011

Good news! The trend in new, seasonally-adjusted unemployment benefit claim filings is shifting in a more positive direction:

Primary Trends in Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 7 January 2006 through 23 June 2011

The major trends we observe in the number of seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claim filings, indicated by the letters in the chart above, are described here.

The shift from an upward (bad) trajectory to a slightly negative (better, not good) trajectory over the past several weeks coincides with the reduction in oil and gasoline prices. The current trend began when employers reacted to a spike in these prices in the spring of 2011, which impacts the both cost of transportation for businesses and the discretionary income of consumers.

We see that in what is now clearly a sudden upward shift in the number of weekly new jobless benefit claims that occurred in early April 2011. Since oil and gas prices peaked in early May, the trend in new jobless claims has been largely flat and through 23 June 2011, may be considered to be falling at an anemic rate of 361 per week.

That's better than seeing the number of new jobless claims rise each week. At roughly the 400,000 per week level however, that's nearly 75,000 per week higher than the 325,000 level that would be consistent with real economic growth.

There is a dark cloud on the economic horizon where these figures are concerned. After having bottomed just above $3.55 per gallon several weeks ago, the national average price for gasoline in the United States has been rising. Now at $3.70 per gallon, this price level suggests that job losses may reverse their current positive falling trend and will begin rising again in the weeks ahead.

Labels:

About Political Calculations



blog advertising
is good for you

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Applications

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Visitors since December 6, 2004:

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links
Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recommended Viewing
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.