Unexpectedly Intriguing!
July 15, 2015
Federal Reserve - Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/stones/fed-reserve.jpg

Just for the record, we think the Federal Reserve is really trying to set one particular expectation for investors.

How do we know? Let's just say that we haven't missed how the Fed's top officials have been flooding the zone during the last two weeks to direct investors to focus their attention upon the near term....

And also for the record, what they have succeeded in doing is focusing investors on 2015-Q3. And while the news from Greece has added positive noise to U.S. stock prices since 10 July 2015, boosting the value of the S&P 500 almost exactly 3% higher than they might otherwise be, that figure is still within the typical range we would expect if investors were tightly focusing their attention on the expectations they have that are associated with 2015-Q3.

Which is to say that the stock market is running somewhat on the hot side of things. Plan accordingly.

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