Unexpectedly Intriguing!
March 14, 2016

Before you even think about looking at the chart below, remember what we said last week, when we commented upon what our futures-based model was projecting for the rest of the month.

That's also true for the projections for the remainder of March 2016, which suggest that stock prices are in for a rough ride before recovering. However, that apparent trajectory is really an artifact of the historic stock prices we use in our model to project their future trajectory, and as such, it is an echo of past volatility, which means that our model will be less accurate until that echo subsides....

So can we predict where stock prices are likely to go next?

Of course we can!... Provided investors keep their forward-looking focus on 2016-Q4 in making their current day investing decisions, we can expect that the S&P 500 will continue to track largely sideways (plus or minus 3% of their current value of just under 2000), through the end of March 2016.

Okay, *now* you can think about looking at the chart below!

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2016Q1 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 2016-03-11

So far, our impromptu forecast is holding, despite the best efforts of central banks around the world!

Speaking of which, here are the headlines that best describe what drove the market's actions in the second week of March 2016, along with our notes.

On a programming note, we'll next update our S&P 500 At Your Fingertips tool sometime next week - we're being slammed by other projects right now, where even though the BLS will be releasing its February CPI figures on 16 March 2016, we won't be able to get to it until sometime during the weekend at the earliest.

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