The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) marked its third consecutive week of closing at new record high values, ending Friday, 15 November 2019 at 3,120.46, with health care stocks providing the upward momentum to close out the second full week of November 2019.
Overall, the level of the S&P 500 looks like its running a bit hot compared to where our dividend futures-based model, but since it's projecting a rising trend over the next week, it could be described as simply being slightly ahead of itself.
The level of the S&P 500 is generally consistent with investors either focusing ahead on either 2020-Q1 or 2020-Q3 in setting stock prices, although we think 2020-Q3 is the current focus because the projected future dividends expected in that quarter has been rising over the last several weeks.
Meanwhile, there's the ever present concern about what the Federal Reserve might do with setting the basic interest rate it controls. On that count, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool is projecting the investor expectation that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point during 2020-Q4, but it wouldn't take much to shift the probabilities of such a rate change earlier by a quarter, so 2020-Q3 will very much continue to be a forward-looking focal point for investors.
Meanwhile, the flow of new information offered little in the way of negativity for the U.S. stock market during the second week of November 2019. Here are the more significant headlines we flagged during the week that was:
- Monday, 11 November 2019
- Oil slips as trade worries offset Cushing drawdown
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- Bigger trouble developing in Germany, Japan because of bigger trouble developing in China:
- Germany's Chinese growth engine stalls
- Japan's surprise decline in machinery orders raises doubts about business spending
- Fed's Rosengren sees U.S. economy 'in pretty good shape'
- S&P 500, Nasdaq slip on trade uncertainty; Boeing buoys Dow
- Tuesday, 12 November 2019
- Oil steadies after Trump dashes hopes on trade deal details
- Trump says China trade deal 'close' but dashes hopes for signing details in NY speech
- Fed minions consider recent rate cuts:
- Barkin: Rate cuts unlikely to revive business investment
- Fed's Harker says he opposed last rate cut, thinks rates should stay put
- Give me some of that: Trump renews call for negative U.S. interest rates
- Bigger stimulus developing in the Eurozone:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq hold near record levels after Trump remarks
- Wednesday, 13 November 2019
- Oil edges up ahead of U.S. storage data as OPEC, Fed see robust economy
- Trade talks between U.S. and China 'hit a snag' over farm purchases: WSJ
- Fed chief Powell says 'sustained expansion' likely for U.S. economy
- Fed's Powell takes old-school view on U.S. borrowing capacity
- U.S. inflation firms on rising healthcare, energy costs
- Bigger stimulus developing in Australia:
- Disney lifts Dow, S&P 500 to records while trade tensions cast shadow
- Thursday, 14 November 2019
- Oil mixed amid U.S. crude stock build, OPEC surplus forecast
- China move to end U.S. poultry ban will boost U.S. exports by $1 billion annually: USTR, USDA
- Bigger trouble developing all over Asia, Australia:
- China's main growth engines falter in October on trade frictions
- Jobs at risk as China's services sector feels heat of trade war
- As recession takes hold, HK banks worry about risk of easier mortgage rules
- Japan's economy nearly stalls in third-quarter, growth at 1-year low as trade war bites
- Japan may slide toward recession as 'Abenomics' impact fades
- Australian jobs suffer biggest drop in 3 years, argue for more stimulus
- Bigger trouble, confusion among ECB minions developing in the Eurozone:
- In imperial castle, Lagarde told ECB must be more democratic: sources
- ECB needs to expand 'toolkit': Vice President
- ECB's Knot: more caution needed on unconventional tools
- Risk of European recession 'very low': ECB's De Guindos
- 'Suffering' German economy narrowly escapes recession in third quarter
- Fed minions really counting on luck, power of positive thinking to do their jobs:
- Fed's Powell: No 'booming' in U.S. economy that threatens to go bust
- Fed's Williams, echoing Powell, says policy is in 'a good place'
- Fed not focused on daily ups, downs of trade deal: Williams
- Fed's Kaplan says strong consumer will help the U.S. economy avoid recession in 2020
- Fed's Bullard: 'More normal' yield curve bullish sign for 2020
- Fed considering number of tools in event of downturn, Clarida says
- S&P 500 notches record, shakes off Cisco's gloomy outlook
- Friday, 15 November 2019
- Oil prices gain 2% despite concerns about rising supplies
- U.S.-China 'Phase 1' deal trade negotiations:
- U.S. and China 'getting close' to trade deal: White House economic adviser
- China buys U.S. soybeans, pork amid uncertainty about trade war settlement
- U.S. and China have significant differences ahead of trade talks Friday night
- Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- Trade deal hopes, surging health stocks power Wall Street to highs
Barry Ritholtz succinctly summarized the positives and negatives he found in last week's economics and market-related news, where the #1 positive is that the market keeps doing the most bullish thing it can do: keep making new highs!
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Closing values for previous trading day.
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