The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) experienced another week of mostly sideways action. While the index closed out the week at 6,481.50, which was up about 0.3% from where it closed the week before, the index remains within about 0.2% of where it was in mid-August 2025.
That's despite a lackluster employment situation report that came out on Friday, 5 September 2025 that was so disappointing it appears to have cinched a quarter point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is now giving over 90% odds the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent at its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting. Looking beyond this month, the FedWatch tool forecasts additional quarter point rate cuts will take place on 29 October and 10 December (2025-Q4) before pausing and resuming on 18 March (2026-Q1).
The latest update of the alternative futures chart however indicates investors reacted to the news, or rather, didn't react, by remaining focused on the distant future quarter of 2026-Q2, which accounts for the mostly sideways-to-slightly-up action in stock prices over the past two weeks.
Here are the week's market moving headlines:
- Tuesday, 2 September 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Appeals court rules most of Trump's tariffs as illegal
- US manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month amid tariff drag
- Oil rises 1% ahead of OPEC+ meeting
- Bessent: "We May Declare A National Housing Emergency In Fall"
- Questions arise over how badly Fed has read U.S. jobs data:
- Fed at a potential pivot point on jobs as storylines diverge
- Exclusive: Fed should be independent but has made mistakes, Bessent says
- Bigger questions developing about China's lust for gold, and coal-fired power:
- How much gold will be enough to diversify China's reserves?
- China Accelerates Coal Plant Commissioning To 9-Year High
- ECB minions claim Trump housecleaning at Fed might pose risks as tame inflation points to steady Eurozone interest rates for now:
- ECB's Lagarde warns of risk to world economy via Trump interference on Fed
- Lagarde's Hypocrisy: ECB Vs Fed Autonomy
- Loss of Fed independence would push up borrowing costs, set off turmoil, ECB's Schnabel says
- Euro zone inflation edges up in August, pointing to steady ECB rates for now
- Wall Street ended lower to start September as tariff news generates uncertainty
- Wednesday, 3 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil prices drop as OPEC+ weighs another output hike
- White House Has Backup Strategy If Trump's Tariffs Are Overturned: Bessent
- US Factory Orders Dropped Again In July As Tariff Front-Running Hangover Lingers
- Holdout Fed minions starting to buy into need for rate cuts as other minions push harder for them, Fed minion with documented ethics problems says they shouldn't be fired because of ethics problems:
- Fed's Bostic: Inflation still main concern, though single quarter-point cut likely warranted this year
- Fed's Waller repeats call for rate cut in September, pace depends on data
- Central banks thinking they may not be bailed out be Fed in their next crises:
- Sluggish growth developing in the Eurozone, ECB minion says central bank independence is "no obstacle to reasonably low rates":
- Euro zone economic growth remains sluggish in August, PMI shows
- Central bank independence is no obstacle to low rates, says ECB's Villeroy
- Nasdaq, S&P 500 end higher with Alphabet, Apple, rate-cut hopes, Dow dips
- Thursday, 4 September 2025
-
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil falls more than 1% as OPEC+ to consider another output hike
- Trump takes tariffs fight to US Supreme Court
- Trump signs executive order implementing trade deal with Japan, White House says
- A Comical Sound of Silence About Yield Curve
- US trade deficit widens in July on soaring imports
- Ethically troubled Fed minion facing legal probe, prospective new Fed minion faces confirmation grilling, #2 Fed minion says to expect gradual rate cuts:
- US Justice Department opens criminal mortgage fraud probe into Fed Governor Cook
- Fed nominee Miran tells Senate panel he's 'not at all' Trump's puppet
- Fed's Williams sees gradual rate cuts but lets data drive when they'll happen
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- S&P 500 registers record-high close as data keeps rate cut views intact
- Friday, 5 September 2025
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- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- US job growth weakened sharply in August
- Trump to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports from firms not moving production to US
- Oil heads for weekly loss as higher supply expected
- Fed minions hear their entire operation needs to be reviewed, Fed minion puts on show about their independence:
- Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for "entire" review of Fed
- Fed's Goolsbee says he's undecided on Sept rate cut, defends Fed independence
- Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
- China export growth seen slowing in August as US trade truce boost fades
- Record $322 billion in China loans for stock bets feeds volatility and prompts caution
- Wall Street closed lower after briefly tagging record highs as payrolls figures land
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 dropped to +3.0% after recording a 3.5% annualized growth rate in the preceding week.
Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull trying to figure out if a bad jobs report is good for stock prices". We're not sure why it cut off the text at the top, but it's readable, so we're running with it....
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