Motio Research reports their initial estimate of U.S. median household income for December 2025 is $87,270, a $450 (or 0.5%) increase from their initial December 2025 estimate of $86,820.

The firm's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey. This survey is conducted during the week containing the 12th day of the month following the month in which its data applies. Motio Research adjusts its raw monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for January 2026 is 118.9.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through January 2026:

Evidence is mounting that Motio Research's survey-based estimates, which have seen a surge in median household income since July 2025, is picking up on a real change in trend from the pattern established since April 2021. We've advanced a hypothesis that explains why this development is occurring, which we'll update in a separate analysis in the near future.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces median household income estimates using other original data sources that complement Motio Research's survey-based estimates. Because of the ongoing delays in official aggregate wage and salary data being reported, we'll present our estimate for December 2025 in this edition and our estimate for January 2026 in next month's edition. We expect to fully catch up with Motio Research's estimates with our February and March 2026 estimates in early May 2026.

Political Calculations' official estimate for median household income in December 2025 is $85,931, which is $101 higher than the ballpark estimate we projected last month. The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through December 2025.

Political Calculations' December 2025 estimate is $889 (one percent) below Motio Research's estimate of $86,820 for the month.

Since the last edition of this series, the U.S. Census Bureau has released revised resident population estimates for the United States, adjusting many of its previous estimates downward. The revision is significant, affecting estimates extending back to March 2020, with the biggest changes taking place in the period from July 2024 to the present.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) see-sawed during the trading week ending on Friday, 27 February 2026. The index ended the week at 6,878.88, down 0.44% from where it closed the preceding week as geopolitical tensions built during the week.

If not for Friday, the rises and falls of stock prices would have cancelled out, leaving the index essentially flat for the week. But Friday was a down day for the S&P 500. Oil prices surged along with an increased potential for military action between the U.S. and the Islamic regime that has controlled Iran since 1979, as negotiations to avoid conflict showed little progress.

Even with that development, the change in stock prices was muted. latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500 is close to the middle of the redzone forecast range we recently added to account for the echoes of volatility from last year's DeepSeek AI shock and "Liberation Day" global tariff shock on its projections.

This compensation is necessary because the dividend futures-based model behind the projections shown on the alternative futures chart uses historical stock prices as the base reference points from which its forecasts of the potential futures for the S&P 500's trajectory are made. The redzone forecast range assumes investors will primarily focus on the upcoming quarter of 2026-Q2 as they set current day stock prices over the period it runs.

Here are the week's market-moving headlines, which adds geopolitics to the ongoing concerns over tariffs and AI for shaping investor expectations.

Monday, 23 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump says US global tariff rate will rise from 10% to 15%
• Winners and losers from Trump's new 15% global tariff
• EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs
• US tariff turmoil leaves Treasury markets dazed
• Oil at six-month high with nuclear talks and US tariffs in focus
• US and Iran slide towards conflict as military buildup eclipses talks
• Iran hit by resurgent protests as U.S. builds pressure ahead of new nuclear talks
• Fed minions keep trying to sell their pause in cutting interest rates:
• Fed's Waller: January jobs data an upside surprise, if it continues a policy pause may be appropriate
• BOJ minions likely to fight falling yen with rate hikes:
• BOJ may raise rates in March if yen resumes slide, says ex-policymaker
• Chief ECB minions trying really hard to sell idea Eurozone monetary policy is in a good place, also may have an ethical scandal:
• ECB's Lagarde sticks with 'good place' mantra
• ECB's Lagarde receives 140,000 euros from BIS despite payment ban for ECB staff, FT reports
• Wall Street dragged down by AI-disruption fears, tariff uncertainty
• Wall Street ends sharply lower amid AI displacement fears and revived tariff angst
• Enterprise software stocks tumble after Citrini note on AI risks
• Investors shift from AI darlings to ‘heavy asset’ stocks in search of stability

Tuesday, 24 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• New US tariffs come in at lower 10% rate
• US single-family home price growth slows in December, FHFA says
• Despite Rise In December, US Home Prices Saw Weakest Full-Year Gain Since 2011
• Oil prices hover near seven-month highs on US-Iran tensions
• Middle East oil exports push tanker costs to 6-year-high amid threat of US-Iran war
• Ten years after first cargo, US LNG dominance set to keep growing
• Fed minions starting to think AI might cause job losses, claim they can' t do anything about it:
• Fed's Cook says AI triggering big changes, sees possible short-term unemployment rise
• Exclusive: Bostic says Fed cannot offset possible rise in structural unemployment
• Fed's Waller says central bank deploying AI tech cautiously
• Fed's Goolsbee: Rate cuts appropriate if inflation falls, but too soon to bet on productivity
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China says it will decide on US tariff countermeasures in due course
• BOJ minions standing by to leap into action to stop Japanese yen from collapsing:
• Yen slips after report on Japanese PM's rate-hike reservations
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• European car sales fall in January, petrol cars sharply decline
• Wall Street ends higher as software stocks rebound from Monday selloff
• Wall St bounces back, ending higher on renewed tech vigor, easing AI concerns
• Gold drops on profit-taking, seen likely consolidating above $5,000

Wednesday, 25 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil turns negative as large US crude stock build outshines supply concerns
• OPEC+ to consider 137,000 bpd oil output increase for April, sources say
• Trump says he has told big tech companies to build their own power plants
• New US tariff starts at 10%, Trump administration working to hike it to 15%
• US tariff rate to hit 15% or more for some nations, USTR says
• Fed minions still worrying about inflation even though it's running under the level they've really been targeting:
• Fed's Schmid says high inflation still bigger issue facing central bank
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China says it has met US trade obligations, warns against more tariffs
• BOJ minions see steady inflation, standing by to prop up yen as looser policy:
• Japan's services inflation steady, signals wage-driven price pressure
• Yen hits fresh 2-week lows, market sentiment in focus
• In surprise move, Japan's government taps two reflationists for BOJ board
• Exclusive: Ex-BOJ chief Kuroda calls for rate hikes, tighter fiscal policy
• ECB minions find out who their Number Two is:
• ECB approves Vujcic as new vice-president
• Wall Street ended higher ahead of Nvidia's earnings
• Wall St opens higher in run-up to Nvidia earnings as AI worries abate
• Bonds outperform equities as AI scare fuels rotation, Barclays says

Thursday, 26 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles down after choppy session as traders follow US, Iran talks
• US mortgage rates dip below 6%, but supply remains key
• Fed minions thinking about more rate cuts, but not until later in the year:
• Fed's Goolsbee forecasts several more rate cuts this year, but not soon
• Fed's Miran: Four quarter-point cuts still warranted this year, no "all clear" for job market
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• US trade panel to probe impact of revoking China's permanent normal trade status
• BOJ gets new minions, gets stronger yen after rate hike threat:
• Japan's Takaichi gets her doves in a row with BOJ board appointees
• Yen strengthens after Bank of Japan signals data-driven rate hikes
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, chief ECB minion claims again she won't quit early and also sees no wave of AI job layoffs yet:
• Euro zone business lending growth slows, ECB data shows
• ECB expects food inflation to settle just above 2%
• ECB's Lagarde again hints at completing term
• ECB sees no wave of AI-led layoffs yet, Lagarde says
• Wall Street ended lower as investors digested Nvidia results
• Wall St ends lower as tech rally stalls, AI fervor wanes after Nvidia results
• Nvidia's results beat estimates, but Wall Street wants more cash return
• Tech stocks slide as AI spending fears return
• Wall Street turns to complex trades to dodge AI ‘implosions’

Friday, 27 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise 3% as US and Iran extend talks into next week
• US oil output fell in December to lowest since June 2025, EIA says
• US producer prices rise strongly in January
• Restaurants emerge as bright spot for US job growth as consumers seek treats
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China needs more proactive and coordinated policies, Politburo says
• Chinese Yuan Breaks Past 6.84 to US Dollar, Hitting Nearly Three-Year High
• As the yuan sizzles, China’s central bank deploys double-barrelled policy tweak
• China encourages dollar buying to slow surging yuan
• What can China do to slow down its rising currency?
• BOJ minions see inflation that doesn't justify rate hikes:
• Core inflation in Japan's capital slows below BOJ's 2% target in test for policy
• Lower inflation developing in Eurozone:
• German inflation unexpectedly dips to 2% in February
• Wall Street ended lower after wholesale inflation arrived hotter than expected
• Wall Street hit by UK mortgage lender collapse, raising fears of more credit 'cockroaches'
• Barclays, Jefferies shares slide as UK mortgage lender collapse revives wider credit fears
• Barclays, Santander, Wells Fargo in Street lenders exposed to failed UK-based MFS - report

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is giving a 66% probability the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point on 17 June (2026-Q2) which is higher than the preceding week. Beyond that date however, the outlook for rate cuts has changed with additional quarter point rate cuts on 16 September (2026-Q3), and 27 January (2027-Q1) now expected with better than even odds.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecasts real GDP growth will be +3.0% in the current quarter of 2026-Q1, a tick lower than the +3.1% growth projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are both wearing suits playing on a seesaw while looking at a stock chart labeled 'SP 500' showing several up and down daily changes ending down".

Recent months have seen several announcements in which the Large Language Models (LLM) behind modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies have solved long-standing problems in the field. Among those previously unsolved problems are a handful originally conceived by Paul Erdős, who generated a catalog of 1,135 challenges for mathematicians to take on. Several AI developers target these problems as means of measuring the progress they're making in developing their systems.

But are today's AI systems really capable of solving these unsolved problems? LLMs have been described as an advanced form of an autocomplete function, or even as a "glorified autocorrect" program the AI systems use to statistically predict what response should follow the prompts it has been given based on the reams of data on which it has been trained.

In the case of the Erdős problems that have been solved by AI, there could be something to that argument. The solved problems have been described as being relatively low-hanging fruit, whose unsolved status may have more to with their relative obscurity. Being similar to other Erdős problems that have been solved, which would be part of the training library used by the LLMs, that similarity could be enough to solve them.

The alternative hypothesis is the math-LLMs are genuinely capable of coming up with original solutions for these problems. But how can we tell which hypothesis is closer to the truth?

A group of eleven mathematicians has proposed a interesting experiment to find out. They're tapping their currently unpublished research to remove the possibility that the LLM is effectively rehashing mathematical solution processes to which they have previously been exposed. Here's the abstract for their preprint paper, which they uploaded on 6 February 2026:

To assess the ability of current AI systems to correctly answer research-level mathematics questions, we share a set of ten math questions which have arisen naturally in the research process of the authors. The questions had not been shared publicly until now; the answers are known to the authors of the questions but will remain encrypted for a short time.

"Short time" was one week. The ten questions were unencrypted on 13 February 2026.

That action started a clock for challenging today's math-AI systems to see if they're genuinely capable of autonomously solving mathematical research questions. At this writing, we don't know what results, if any, have been put forward and whether they stands up to scrutiny.

Regardless of how it goes, it's a genuinely exciting research effort for which we're looking forward to learning the outcome.

Image credit: Artificial Intelligence - hand touches icon with symbol of network and brain by Gerd Altmann on PublicDomainPictures.com. Creative Commons Creative Commons - CC0 Public Domain.

Here we are, three months after Thanksgiving 2025. How are the Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) doing?

The Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks are a group of ten stocks that Seeking Alpha's Jason Capul identified as "Thanksgiving leftovers no one wants". Going into Thanksgiving 2025, these were the worst performing stocks of the index, having lost anywhere from 41.7% to 70.1% of their value up to that point of the year.

We've been tracking the daily ups and downs of these stocks since Thanksgiving 2025, creating two hypothetical stock indices to track them. One is a simple equal-weighted index, consisting of an equal number of shares of each stock. The other is a market capitalization-weighted index, like the S&P 500 itself, which we introduced in the previous edition of this series. We're comparing the performance of both of our Thanksgiving Leftover indices with that of the S&P 500.

The following chart shows where each of these indices stand after one quarter.

There have been dramatic changes since the previous edition. One month ago, both Thanksgiving Leftover Stock indices were handily beating the S&P 500. But now, through the end of trading on 25 February 2026, we find the S&P 500 is outperforming both having reached a value 101.4% of its value on the day after Thanksgiving 2025.

The value of the market cap-weighted version of the Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks has dropped to be 97.7% of its post-Thanksgiving Day value, but the equal-weighted version has lost 11.5% of its value, clocking in at 88.5% of its value on 28 November 2025.

The following spaghetti chart reveals the performance of each of the ten Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks with respect to the S&P 500, each indexed with respect to their closing values on 28 November 2025.

Three of the ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks have beaten the S&P 500 in the last quarter: Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK), Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), which have risen to be 135.7%, 125.8%, and 108.6% of their values recorded on 28 November 2025.

Another three, Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE: ARE), Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV), and Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH) are treading water, coming within a few percent but still below the performance of the S&P 500.

The final four Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks however are still being clobbered by bears. Of these, Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) has done the best, dropping to 81.1% of its Thanksgiving Leftover Day value. Gartner (NYSE: IT) and Factset Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) are worth 78.4% and 74.5% what they were on 28 November 2025. But The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) is by far the worst, having dropped to 63.6% of its Day-After-Turkey-Day price.

Which is really amazing when you consider that to even be on this list, it had already registered the second worst performance of the individual stock components that make up the S&P 500 index. Since the beginning of trading on 2 January 2025, The Trade Desk's share price has fallen 78.8% in value, dropping from $117.73 to $24.94 per share on 25 February 2026.

That's a performance that raises questions of whether TTD will remain within the S&P 500 index. Seeking Alpha reports The Trade Desk's market capitalization is $12.06 billion, but that was before the firm reported better than expected earnings but a disappointing outlook after the closing bell on 25 February 2026.

That's less than the $13.36 billion market cap reported by Seeking Alpha for the Class B shares of News Corp (NWS), which was the smallest company by market cap in the S&P 500. If its bad fortune persists, Standard and Poor's next adjustment to its flagship index could see the Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks of the S&P 500 drop from ten to nine members this year.

There are 503 stocks that make up the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at the beginning of 2026. How many of them pay dividends to their shareholding owners?

To answer this question, we've tapped Standard and Poor's historic data, which covers the period from 1980 through 2025 so we can see how that number has evolved over this time. We should note that the number of firms in the S&P 500 has changed over this time. There were 500 stocks in the index from 1980 through 2013, which increased to 502 in 2014, 504 in 2015 and topped out at 505 from 2015 through 2021 as a few firms (like Google, now called Alphabet) split up their shares into different classes (GOOG and GOOGL) that were large enough to qualify to be included in the index. There have been 503 companies in the S&P 500 since 2022.

We'll also provide some background information that helps explain that evolution. But first, the following chart visualizes how the number of the S&P 500's dividend paying stocks has changed during the last 45 years.

In the period before 1986 and also from 1997 to 2003, tax rates on dividends were set to be much higher than they were for capital gains. This inequality prompted many firms to stop paying dividends during these periods, which you can see in the number of dividend payers dropping from 469 to 426 from 1980 to 1986, and then drop from 427 to 351 in the period between 1996 and 2003. However, once dividend and capital gains taxes were equalized, the number of S&P 500 companies that paid dividends either rose or stabilized outside ordinary business cycle downturns.

Of course, "recession" is another name for a business cycle downturn and the chart shows two major recessions in which the number of dividend paying firms in the S&P 500 notably fell.

The first of these is the 2008-2009 "Great Recession", a harsh event for the U.S. stock market, with 7% of dividend payers acting to either suspend or outright stop paying dividends until their businesses recovered. In all, the number of dividend paying companies dropped from 390 to 363 during the Great Recession.

2020's Coronavirus Pandemic Recession was even worse, harming 9% of dividend payers, as the number of dividend payers drop from 423 to 385. Since then, the number of dividends payers has recovered to reach 409 of the firms that make up the S&P 500 index today, which is still below the 423 that did in 2019.

References

Dai, Zhonglan and Shackelford, Douglas A. and Zhang, Harold Huibing, Capital Gains Taxes and Stock Return Volatility. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=972349 or DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.972349. 11 August 2010.

De Silva, Matthew. The art and science of stewarding the S&P 500. Quartz [Online Article]. 25 September 2019.

Political Calculations. What Caused the Dot Com Bubble to Begin and What Caused It to End? [Online Article]. 15 December 2010.

Silverblatt, Howard. S&P 500 Indicated Rate Change. Standard and Poor. S&P Dow Jones Indices. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 31 January 2026.

Silverblatt, Howard. S&P 500 Market Attributes Web File. S&P 500 Dividend Payers vs Non-Payers Performance. Standard and Poor. S&P Dow Jones Indices. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 31 January 2026.