The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) has reverted back to its mean.

We can say that because the S&P 500 has experienced a relatively stable period of order since the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. We know that's the case because the variation of stock prices with respect to the mean trend curve established from the relationship between stock prices and their trailing year dividends per share can be generally described by a normal distribution.

That in itself is remarkable because stock prices are very much not normal, even when they behave in an orderly manner. When you map their variation onto a chart with zones that align with significant reference points for a normal bell curve from statistics, you'll find both too many points within one standard deviation of the mean and too many points outside the zones where they would be expected to be found 99.8% of the time if that variation was really normally distributed.

But that doesn't mean we can't use the tools built for doing statistical analysis to track an index like the S&P 500 when such a period of order exists in the stock market. The following chart deploys those tools and finds that as of the close of trading on 11 March 2026, the level of the S&P 500 is just a short distance from its central mean trendline. Which is to say the level of the S&P 500 has finally returned to its established mean after having run above it since early September 2025.

This is an almost textbook example of what "reverting to the mean" really means where stock prices are concerned.

But in case you're wondering what it means when stock prices move outside the outer limits described by this kind of analysis, where order really does break down (as opposed to simply being the result of statistical outliers in a continuing trend like what happened back in April 2025), the ultimate textbook example involves the ultimate sell signal.

Evidence has emerged to support our hypothesis that more robust immigration enforcement is a significant contributing factor to the increase in median household income in the U.S. since mid-2025.

Updated monthly population estimates were released last month, with the revisions covering the period from March 2020 through November 2025. From March 2020 through June 2021, most estimates were revised upward by very small amounts, but for each month from July 2021 onward, all estimates were revised downward. The magnitude of revisions start out very small, but increase in magnitude as the revisions draw closer the present.

The negative revisions show three notable shifts as they increase in magnitude. The first shift took place after June 2024 as the cumulative size of the negative revisions grew larger than 100,000. The second shift took place in February 2025 as the cumulative negative revisions surpassed 200,000. The third shift clocks from July 2025 with the size of the negative revisions growing from month to month.

The following chart visualizes the "before" and "after" population data for the period from January 2021 through November 2025 and with the newly reported population estimate for December 2025.

The three shifts follow notable political events that would have a potential outsized effect on U.S. immigration. The first shift took place after President Joseph Biden's disastrous debate with then presidential candidate Donald Trump on 28 June 2024, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race several weeks later. This event cemented Donald Trump as the likely next U.S. President and since he campaigned strongly against the unrestricted immigration policies of the Biden administration, it would be reasonable for that event to have a small negative effect on immigrant flows into the U.S.

The second shift came after President Donald Trump was sworn into office on 20 January 2026 and began implementing his immigration control agenda. That change saw the negative revisions jump in the early months of the new Trump administration, which slowed going into summer.

The third shift starting from July 2025 is the most notable one and coincides with the period in which the Trump administration introduced its program to incentivize unlawful immigrants to self-deport from the U.S. with a cash payment and free travel to their home countries. This is the immigration-related policy we think had the biggest effect on median household income because it would be especially attractive to immigrants with very low incomes. The removal of large numbers of this portion of the work force would automatically lead to an increase in median household income with the increasing departures of the lowest income earners, which itself tracks from July 2025 onward.

Comparing November 2025's population estimate from the pre-revision level of 343,078,000 to the post-revision level of 342,439,000 underscores the magnitude of the revision as the estimated resident population of the U.S. dropped by 639,000. At the same time, since the previous population estimates were based on a model of population growth that was established during the Biden administration, it works as a counterfactual, or rather, a reasonable estimate of what the U.S. population would have been if not for the significant political events that altered both it and the nation's median household income.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. 20 February 2026.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A picture illustrating the concept of a revision to U.S. Census population estimates". We're amazed at how well the result came out, which is remarkable considering how short the prompt was.

U.S. teens seeking jobs are facing an uphill struggle.

Jobs for Americans between the ages of 16 and 19 continued their long downward trend in February 2026.

For younger teens, Age 16 and 17, that downward trend began in April 2022 when the percentage of that age demographic counted as being employed peaked at a seasonally-adjusted 25.6%. Through February 2026, that percentage has dropped to 21.0%.

Older teens, Age 18 and 19, have fared better, with their employment-to-population percentage peaking at 45.8% of their demographic in December 2025. Through February 2026, that statistic has fallen to 41.3%.

The following pair of charts presents the seasonally-adjusted data for both the number of teens employed in each of these age categories and also the U.S. teen employment-to-population ratio for the period from January 2021 through February 2026, .

The trend for younger teens is the most concerning. Over the period captured by these charts, many of the teens who were working at Age 16 and 17 in 2022 went on to become the working Age 18 and 19 teens, which helps explain why that demographic had its peak a little over two years later. Meanwhile, the teens who replaced them in the younger demographic are proving to be much less successful in finding jobs.

The recent downtrend for older teens may be developing in part because of the same demographic rollover, with the portion of the teen workforce who first entered the job market in 2022 now aging out into the next higher age category.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 6 March 2026.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon to illustrate the concept of a slowing job market for teenage Americans", which we think is remarkable because Copilot loaded the depicted teen's cart with stereotypes for teen employment options.

Geopolitical events dominated the first trading week of March 2026. The start of U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran prompted a sharp rise in oil prices as Iran's military launched ballistic missile attacks against Persian Gulf nations and threatened shipping traffic through the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.

That escalation prompted marine insurers to cancel war risk coverage for oil container ships, which in turn, sharply reduced shipments of oil out of the Persian Gulf as shippers were unwilling to risk transiting the strait. The resulting new constraint on the 20% of global oil supply that is transported from the oil-rich nations of the Persian Gulf caused the global price of oil to jump over ten percent.

The increase in oil prices put central banks on notice to combat inflation. In the U.S., the prospects for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during 2026 dimmed in response to the development. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will delay an expected quarter point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate steady until 29 July (2026-Q3), six weeks later than what was anticipated a week earlier. The tool also projects another quarter point rate cut on 9 December (2026-Q4).

The effect on stock prices however was more muted. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) declined 2.0% from its previous week's close to end the trading week at 6,740.02.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the trajectory of the index is still within the redzone forecast range we introduced in the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series, but instead of being in the middle, it moved near the lower end of the range.

Although geopolitics delivered the week's biggest news, other news influenced investor expectations of the future as well. Here are the week's market-moving headlines:

Monday, 2 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil jumps to multiyear high as Hormuz disruption shakes global supply
• Brent surges after Iran strikes, with analysts eyeing $100 oil
• Oil and gas majors and traders suspend shipments via Hormuz
• OPEC+ agrees modest oil output boost
• US manufacturing activity steady, factory gate inflation surges
• Fed minions trying to grasp what AI technologies mean for monetary policies:
• Fed races to adapt to AI promises and pitfalls for jobs, inflation
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity set to shrink for second month, hit by depressed demand
• China oil refiners cushioned from Iran conflict with ample Iranian, Russian supply at hand
• BOJ minions still excited to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Bank of Japan deputy governor says rate hikes likely to continue
• Japan faces risks from Iran conflict that complicates BOJ rate path
• Nasdaq ends higher as U.S. stocks recover amid U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict escalation
• Wall Street ends narrowly mixed, trading volatile after air strikes on Iran
• Investors seek harbour in gold as US and Israel strike Iran

Tuesday, 3 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices jump 4.7%, settle at highest since January 2025 on Middle East conflict
• Geopolitical shocks rarely derail equities unless oil spikes 75–100% Y/Y, Morgan Stanley says
• Trump orders oil tanker insurance support, says Navy could escort ships in Gulf
• US banks on high alert for cyberattacks as Iran war escalates
• US Treasury vows 'fresh look' at bank liquidity rules
• Fed minions say they might not cut rates when expected if oil prices rise too much:
• Fed rate-cut doubts rise as Middle East conflict drives up energy prices
• Fed's Schmid: inflation too hot, no room to be complacent
• Fed's Williams says rate cuts still possible, does not address Iran war
• Fed's Kashkari says Iran war obscures monetary policy outlook
• Fed faces new inflation, growth risks despite US energy resilience
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese refiners begin run cuts as Iran war tightens oil supply
• China vows to ensure energy security following US military actions
• How China could boost its weak consumption
• BOJ minions suddenly not so sure they'll hike Japan's interest rates so soon, thinking about getting into blockchain:
• Iran conflict raises odds BOJ will forgo rate hike in March, sources say
• Japan faces risks from Iran conflict that complicates BOJ rate path
• BOJ to experiment with blockchain settlement for reserves
• ECB minions still thinking they leave Eurozone interest rates alone, suddenly worried about inflation:
• ECB should sit tight on rates amid uncertain war fallout, Kazaks says
• Euro zone inflation jumps, faces quick hit from surging oil price
• Euro zone inflation could surge on lengthy Iran war, ECB's chief economist warns
• U.S. stocks ended lower amid Middle East conflict and South Korea chip selling
• Wall Street tumbles as South Korea triggers chip selling
• Wall Street indexes end lower as Middle East conflict fans inflation fears

Wednesday, 4 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles at highest in over a year for second straight day as Iran crisis escalates, snarls Hormuz flows
• Americas heavy crude prices hit multi-year highs as Iran conflict disrupts oil markets
• Gulf shipping crisis deepens as tankers stranded for fifth day, US sinks Iranian warship
• Exclusive: Qatar shuts gas liquefaction, will take weeks to restart, sources say
• US services sector activity hits more than 3-1/2-year high in February
• US likely to raise temporary global tariff rate to 15% this week, Bessent says
• Fed minions divided over more rate cuts:
• Fed's Miran: Risks from Iran conflict no reason to delay continued rate cuts - BBG TV
• Fed's Hammack backs steady interest rates, tells NYT it's too early to gauge Iran war impact
• Fed report says economy solid, notes disruption from immigration crackdown in Minnesota
• Mixed economic signals, stimulus developing in China:
• China factory activity contracts for second month in February
• China's services sector growth races to 33-month high in February, survey shows
• China parliament to approve growth, policy plans amid growing US rivalry
• BOJ minions locking in on rate hikes no matter what:
• Bank of Japan chief vows to keep raising rates with eye on Iran conflict
• ECB minions having flashbacks of last time they blew inflation forecast after shock event:
• ECB wary of Iran-war inflation spike after missing last 'transitory' surge
• U.S. stocks recover Middle East conflict-led losses with better-than-expected labor report, rising chip stocks
• US stocks close up on Iran diplomacy hopes; tech leads rebound

Thursday, 5 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say
• More tankers come under attack as US-Iran conflict spreads in the region
• Fed minions say higher inflation and good jobs data could derail rate cuts, claim they see no big job losses from AI:
• Fed's Barkin: Sticky inflation, better jobs data could shift the risk outlook for the Fed - BBG TV
• Fed's Beige Book signals AI productivity push with limited job impact
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China Guides Down: Beijing Drops Economic Growth Target To Lowest Level In 35 Years
• China's parliament rolls out economic, political blue-print; here's what you need to know
• China again targets overcapacity in commodity sector
• Explainer: What's in China's new five-year plan for commodity markets
• China to inject $44 billion into state banks, boost tech financing
• China in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, sources say
• China urges refiners to suspend fuel exports amid Mideast war, sources say
• ECB minions not sure of next actions, suddenly worried about inflation and potential need to bailout banks in Eurozone:
• ECB has no preset response to Middle East war, Lagarde says
• ECB policymakers warn of inflation spike if Iran war lasts
• ECB's Nagel says long Iran war would push up inflation
• Exclusive: Euro zone banks face multiple threats from Iran war, ECB supervisor says
• Wall Street sinks as oil prices top $80/bbl after renewed Iran war escalations
• Wall Street closes down as oil prices spike on Middle East conflict

Friday, 6 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Brent crude spikes above $90 as Trump says no deal with Iran except 'unconditional surrender'
• Just how high will gas prices climb with oil now above $90/barrel?
• Unexpected job losses, rise in unemployment rate fan US labor market doubts
• Jobs Shock: US Lost 92K Payrolls In February, Far Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemployment Rate Rises
• Fed minions still divided on which way to go with monetary policies:
• Fed faced with hard choice on weak jobs, high inflation
• Fed Governor Miran: The Fed is chasing ‘phantom inflation’ as labor demand weakens
• Fed's Hammack says interest rates likely on hold for some time
• Fed's Collins sees rate policy holding steady for some time
• Fed's Schmid says hiring is on pause amid AI, aging
• Fed's Daly: job market vulnerable, but risks two-sided
• Fed's Waller: Don't expect current oil price shock to have persistent impact on inflation - BBG TV
• Bigger stimulus, deals developing in China:
• China to boost spending to meet growth target amid rising global uncertainty
• Boeing nears 500-jet order with China ahead of Trump-Xi summit - Bloomberg
• China's largest provincial economy vows to reshape industry with AI
• BOJ minions suddenly thinking about not hiking Japan's interest rates again, standing by to keep currency from collapsing:
• BOJ likely to put off rate hike until June or July, ex-top economist says
• BOJ will be vigilant to yen moves, impact on inflation, deputy governor says
• Japan ready to act against market swings, economic blow from Iran conflict
• ECB minions worried world events may disrupt their perfect monetary policy:
• Iran war threatens ECB's 'good place,' Schnabel warns
• ECB unlikely to change rates in next meeting, Escriva says
• Oil price surge not ruining ECB's 'good place', Sleijpen says
• S&P 500, Dow end week lower as nonfarm payrolls contract, oil prices accelerate
• US stocks close down as oil spikes 12%, job market weakens
• Gold slips despite geopolitical tensions as traders weigh Fed outlook and oil price spike

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 dropped to +2.1%, down from the +3.0% growth anticipated a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear in suits screaming at news ticker that says 'IRAN WAR'".

There's a big market for products like flea collars that address the needs of dog owners who want to prevent their pets from picking up fleas and ticks when they're outside. There's an even bigger market for dog clothing for pet owners who would like their dogs to make style statements.

What if there were an invention that combined these two product categories? In theory, the inventor behind such an invention could benefit by claiming a small share of both markets.

As it happens, there is such an invention, although its inventor didn't quite realize its full potential! In September 1963, inventor Seroun Kesh of Detroit, Michigan was awarded U.S. Patent 3,150,641 for his invention "Dust Cover For Dog". Here's a colorized depiction of the patent's illustrations:

In the patent, Kesh describes the problems of pet owners he believed his innovation would solve:

It is well-known to animal lovers that dogs and cats harbor fleas and other pests and that the attempt to eradicate such pests oftentimes poses quite a problem. Efficient powders and sprays are now on the market for eliminating these pests, but their effective application and retention leaves much to be desired.

It is therefore an object of this invention to provide a device, which will greatly assist the animal owner, in the effective application and retention of such pesticides on the animal, for a period of time sufficient to do the work required.

Another object of the invention is to provide an animal covering of the character indicated, which will protect the clothing, rugs, furniture of the owner from damage, while the animal is being treated for fleas and the like.

If you look at the patent illustrations, it's pretty clear Kesh has not invented a dust cover for a dog so much as a full body suit for a canine companion. One that could not only be used for his stated purpose of keeping flea powder off the pet owner's furnishings, but could also work like a raincoat in keeping water and dirt off the dog, or even block fleas and ticks from being able to latch onto the dog. Add a fashionable pattern to the dog's body suit and the potential to make bank from the inventions was certainly in place, as a simple search for dog bodysuits on Amazon makes clear!

Including the flea suits and recovery suits for dogs, which are reasonably priced in today's market. Kesh's basic concept for his invention is a proven success.

That success includes another capability of the invention described in the patent. That strange tube on the dog's back near the tail has a specific function:

Another object of the invention is to provide a device of the character indicated, which is constructed and arranged, so that it may be used to help rapidly dry the animal's fur after a bath, by the simple expedient of attaching thereto the hot air exhaust end of a hair dryer device, whereby to permit the hot air to reach all parts of the animal's body.

That aspect of the invention can be found in today's dog drying bag, which works just like Kesh's concept.

It's not often the IIE team comes across an invention that, at first glance, appears to be destined for the annals of odd and unsuccessful inventions, but which after a bit of shopping research, we find is genuinely successful and is the inspiration for many products available in today's marketplace. The Doggy Dust Cover, and its modern descendants, is a rare exception to the rule!

Inventions in Everything: The Archives

The IIE team has gone to the dogs before, but only for just a handful of inventions. Here's that short list!

• Inventions in Everything: Toilets for Dogs
• Inventions in Everything: The Silliest Illustration Ever in a U.S. Patent?
• Inventions in Everything: Keeping Dog Time
• Inventions in Everything: Texting Your Dog a Treat