The pace at which human carbon dioxide emissions are accumulating in the Earth's air held steady in April 2025. The trailing 12-month average of the year-over-year change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration was 3.29 parts per million.

That's a reduction of 0.28 parts per million, or about 7.9%, from the modern-era record of 3.57 parts per million recorded in December 2024. The change coincides with a sharp slowdown in China's economic output following boosted production aimed at beating expanded tariffs and trade restrictions on the nation's exports.

The slowdown is evident in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data because China is, by a very wide margin, the world's leading producer of carbon dioxide emissions. The following chart shows how this measure has changed from January 2000 through April 2025:

The slowdown is evident in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data because China is the world's leading producer of carbon dioxide emissions by a very wide margin.

The following tool gives an estimate of how much economic activity in worldwide (and predominantly in China) has declined since December 2024. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may nbeed to click through ot our site to access a working version.

The tool's estimates are based on Jenny Cederborg's and Sara Snöbohm's 2016 paper. In their research, they investigated whether there is a relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions and identified a positive correlation between CO₂ emissions and GDP per capita. They found "CO₂ emissions increase by approximately 0.0002 [metric] tons (0.2 kg) per capita when GDP per capita increase by 1 dollar, holding all other variables constant".

That relationship doesn't take the effects of inflation into account, so the tool's results based upon it are likely understating the reduction in global GDP associated with the reduction in CO₂ emissions.

That said, global GDP for 2024 is estimated to be around $110 trillion, which means the indicated global GDP reduction of $9.3 trillion since December 2024, or about 8.5%, is substantial.

And to underscore the point, this figure represents a low estimate for GDP loss through March-April 2025 because of the effects of inflation recorded since 2016, which includes the period of high inflation unleashed by the Biden-Harris administration in early 2021.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. Updated 5 May 2025.

Cederborg, Jenny and Snöbohm, Sara. Is there a relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions? Semantic Scholar. [PDF Document]. 2016.

Image credit: Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta. Prompt: "Digital art concept of carbon dioxide emissions being used to measure economic growth."

Three years ago, U.S. mortgage rates surged past the point where they put new homes outside of the affordable reach of the typical American household. Combined with the Biden-era inflation of new home prices, the majority of American households have not been able to afford the typical new home sold in the U.S. since March 2022.

Put another way, March 2025 represents the 36th consecutive month in which the monthly mortgage payment for the median new home sold in the United States would consume more than 36% of the pre-tax income of a household earning the median household income.

That's the upper threshold of household income that mortgage lenders use to determine whether they will lend to a household that has no other debt. For households that do carry other debt, many lenders prefer their monthly mortgage payments consume no more than 28% of their pre-tax household income.

This isn't saying much, but there is a bright side in the March 2025 affordability data. At 37.5% of median household income, it is within striking distance of falling below the upper threshold of affordability. The latest update of our chart tracks the changing relative affordability of the typical new home sold in the U.S. is for the typical American household with respect to the mortgage lending industry's key affordability thresholds from January 2000 through March 2025.

This affordability factor is based on March 2025's initial median new home sale price of $403,600, an estimated median household income of $82,971, and an average 30-year conventional mortgage interest rate of 6.65%.

Looking ahead to April 2025, the interest rate for the average 30-year conventional fixed rate mortgage ticked up to 6.73%. Assuming median household income is unchanged, the median sale price of new homes sold in the U.S. would have to fall by 4.6% to $385,000 to cross the upper threshold of affordability for a household in the exact middle of the U.S. income distribution.

Alternatively, if both the median sale price of a new home and median household income remains unchanged, the average mortgage rate would have to decline to about 6.27% for the median new home to drop to the upper limit of affordability.

About the New Home Affordability Crisis

The affordability crisis for new homes has its origin in the high inflation that was unleashed by the Biden-Harris administration's policies in March 2021. Although it rose slowly at first, the cost of monthly mortgage payment began to skyrocket after December 2021. As a percentage of median household income, the monthly mortgage payment for a new home climbed above the key 36% threshold of relative affordability in April 2022. The relative affordability of new homes has remained above this level for 36 consecutive months.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 April 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 April 2025. 

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 9 May 2025. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a carnival sign that says you must be able to pay up to 36% of your income to have a mortgage".

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) retreated a half percent from its previous week's close, ending the trading week at 5,659.91. During the week, there were two big stories driving stock prices: the Fed's choice to not resume cutting U.S. interest rates until later in 2025 and the Trump administration's progress in its trade negotiations after it imposed higher tariffs on U.S. trading partners last month.

The Fed's reluctance to cut U.S. interest rates drew most investor focus in the early part of the week, which saw the index drop almost 1.5% through Tuesday as Fed officials were expected to punt on cutting rates. The market's direction changed on Wednesday after the news broke that U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators would meet during the upcoming weekend in Switzerland.

That change in momentum continued on Thursday as the U.S. announced its first major trade deal with the United Kingdom and as more information about the pending trade negotiations with China came out. Friday saw the upward momentum stall with no real new information to affect investor outlook.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart puts the index' trajectory in the middle of the redzone forecast range we modified in last week's edition of the S&P 500 chaos series.

The stage is now set for next week, when whatever news comes out from Switzerland over the weekend will drive stock prices. Speaking of which, here is are the headlines that represent the random onset of new information investors had to absorb during the trading week ending on Friday, 9 May 2025.

Monday, 5 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil ends at four-year lows as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes
• Trump orders 100% tariff on foreign-made movies to save 'dying' Hollywood
• Fed policymakers expected to keep rates steady as tariffs roil outlook
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing
• JapanGov minions back off threat to dump US treasuries:
• Japan says no plan to threaten Treasuries sale in US trade talks
• BOJ minions think they have time to hike Japan's interest rates:
• BOJ sees window for rate hikes narrowing but not closed yet
• Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow ended lower ahead of the Fed's rate decision
• S&P 500 snaps 9-session win streak after latest Trump tariff
• Berkshire Hathaway Drops 5% After Warren Buffett's Retirement: Is The Stock a Buy with Greg Abel as CEO?
• Buffett to step down as Berkshire CEO after 60 years at helm, passes baton to Abel

Tuesday, 6 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises 3% on signs of more Europe and China demand, less US output
• The heart of the US oil boom is slowing
• Diamondback lowers output forecast, says US shale at tipping point
• Tariff-Frontrunning Sparks Record Trade Deficit in March
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's services growth hits 7-month low as tariffs bite, Caixin PMI shows
• Hong Kong's freight forwarding industry hit by trade war, SCMP reports
• Thermal coal prices hit 4-year low in Asia as China imports wane
• Wall Street extends losses to a second straight day ahead of Fed rate decision

Wednesday, 7 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Top officials from U.S. and China to hold trade talks on Saturday in Geneva
• Oil settles lower as hopes dim for US-China trade and supply worries ease
• Fed minions do what they were expected to do, despite rising risks to US economy:
• Fed likely to leave rates unchanged as it hunts for clarity on the economy
• Fed sees rising risks to economy as it leaves rates unchanged
• Fed Rejects Trump Calls To Cut Rates: Warns Of "Increased" Stagflationary "Uncertainty"
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China Cuts Rates To Stimulate Struggling Economy, Just Hours After Agreeing To Tariff Talks
• China c.bank cuts 7-day reverse repo rate, effective May 8
• China injects 'tactical' monetary stimulus ahead of US trade meeting
• Central banks rethinking direction of their monetary policies:
• Major central banks' easing push slows to a trickle in April
• Brazil central bank hikes rates to near 20-year high, leaves next steps open
• Bank of England set to cut rates amid worries about Trump tariff fallout
• BOJ split over how US policies impact rate hikes, March minutes show
• Eurozone minions threaten tariffs on U.S. goods:
• EU Set to Tariff $113 Billion in U.S. Goods If Trade Talks Break Down
• Wall Street closes out choppy trading session by snapping a two-day losing streak
• Gold drops over 1% on Powell's cautious views, easing trade tensions

Thursday, 8 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Britain set to strike first deal to cut Trump tariffs
• Trump says China wants to make a trade deal, is open to lowering tariffs if talks go well
• US weighs plan to lower China tariffs to as low as 50%, New York Post reports
• Near-record US container import streak expected to snap in May due to tariffs
• Oil prices steady after dropping as economic uncertainty, supply concerns weigh
• OPEC April oil output edges lower despite plans for hike, survey finds
• U.S. exports of natural gas liquids touch record high in April
• Higher interest rates to delay U.S. residential market recovery, CRH CEO says
• Trump castigates Fed's Powell for not cutting rates, downplays inflation risk
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Trade war set to slash China's steel exports, aggravating oversupply at home
• China exempts some US imports from tariffs
• BOE minions cut UK interest rates:
• BoE cuts rates to 4.25% as it sees tariff hit to growth
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Toyota sees 21% full-year profit decline as tariffs take a bite
• ECB minions still excited to deliver more interest rate cuts to Eurozone:
• Central banks in Europe keep easing on the agenda even as Fed stays firmly on hold
• Wall Street ends higher after Trump says 'go out and buy stock now'
• Bitcoin retakes $100,000 on global trade deal optimism
• Gold falls more than 1% after Trump announces UK trade deal

Friday, 9 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices post weekly gains on US-China trade talk optimism
• US oilfield giants brace for tough times as price slide rattles producers
• Ahead of key China talks, Trump says 80% tariff 'seems right'
• Exclusive: India offers to slash tariff gap by two-thirds in dash to seal trade pact with Trump
• Fed minions say they don't really know what's going on while confidently asserting the US job market is doing great and that tariffs will slow the economy and cause inflation:
• Fed officials, citing uncertainty, reiterate patient policy stance
• Fed's Kugler says US labor market stable, close to maximum employment
• Fed's Barr: tariffs to boost inflation, slow growth later this year
• Fed's independent structure has proved its worth, Waller says
• Ex Fed's Warsh highlights a path to lower rates, takes a fresh dig at the Fed
• Bigger US trade deal developing in China?
• Inside China's decision to come to the table on Trump tariffs
• Fear Of Economic Collapse Forced China To Negotiate With Trump, Quietly Reach Out First: Reuters Report
• China’s latest stimulus measures fail to impress as investors focus on U.S. trade talks
• China's April soybean imports hit decade-low as customs delays disrupt trade
• China's exports top forecasts helped by global rush to beat tariffs
• China's April exports beat expectations, imports narrow declines
• U.S. stocks finish slightly lower ahead of possible weekend China trade deal

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will refuse to resume cutting the Federal Funds Rate until the conclusion of its 30 July (2025-Q2) meeting. The FedWatch Tool also forecasts the Fed will reduce U.S. interest rates just twice before the end of 2025, anticipating 0.25% cuts in the Federal Funds Rate on 17 September (2025-Q3) and 10 December (2025-Q4).

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool boosted its projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 from +1.1% to +2.3%. This estimate is near the upper end of the so-called "Blue Chip consensus" range, where the overall average expected real GDP growth rate for the quarter is about 0.8%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are watching U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators".

If you hang around people who like to play with maths, eventually they'll start playing tricks with it. And by tricks, we mean they'll use math to do something seemingly impossible with it that makes absolutely no sense. Or, they'll do something that seems to make perfect sense, but produces results that can't possibly be true.

These are mathematical illusions, and in the following hour-long video, Gresham College Professor of Geometry Sarah Hart works through several mathematical proofs that give impossible results before explaining where many of them have gone wrong (at the 48-minute mark). Starting with a highly unlikely proof that reveals the number 1 is equal to 0....

The trick to using math to produce impossible results is to muck up the mathematical logic you're using while you're doing it, which can happen either on purpose or, as happens more often than many like to admit, without realizing it.

And as Professor Hart shows, "once you have 'proved' one false claim, you can prove absolutely any statement at all". Even if it's impossible.

The initial report that the United States' GDP shrank during the first quarter of 2025 puts a different light on jobs data. What do you suppose happened with the employment situation of the most marginal members of the U.S. labor force?

We are referring to teenagers, who when compared with every other demographic, collectively represent the least educated, least skilled, and least experienced portion of the U.S. labor force. Unlike older Americans, teens have an easy out, because most can simply switch from having either a full or part-time job to just being full-time students, without ever being considered unemployed. But because a worker's knowledge, skills and experience matters when times get tough, with employers choosing the retain employees who have accumulated more of these desirable characteristics, teens are often the first impacted whenever the economy shrinks.

But in the first quarter of 2025, teens did surprisingly well. The seasonally-adjusted total number of employed teens ended the quarter at 5,786,000, about the same as the fourth quarter of 2024 ended. What pulled U.S. economic growth down during 2025-Q1 had little impact on teen employment.

At first glance, April 2025 seems little different. The initial seasonally-adjusted number of working teens Age 16 through 19 dipped by 53,000 (or 0.9%) to 5,733,000, which is a small change that is typical month noise in teen employment.

The following chart presents seasonally adjusted U.S. teen employment and the teen employed-to-population ratio from January 2021 through April 2025.

Breaking down into the subgroups of younger teens (Age 16-17) and older teens (Age 18-19), we find the seasonally-adjusted number of younger teens with jobs decreased by 93,000 (4.4%) to 2,002,000, while the number of older teens counted as being employed increased by 10,000 (0.3%).

Compared to older teens, younger teens have accumulated less of the positive characteristics that employers find attractive, so this is the part of the labor force we would expect to first see the impact of a negative turn for the U.S. economy. If you look at the trend in employment for 16-17 year-olds, you'll see it has been on a long downward trend since December 2022.

However the data since October 2024 suggests the employment situation for these most marginal members of the U.S. labor force may be stabilizing. While down month over month, the April 2025 jobs data for younger teens is consistent with how employment has been for this demographic over the past six-to-seven months.

Older teens have a similar pattern, only here, the number of employed has been mostly stable since December 2024 and are at or near the highest level they've been over the past four years.

What this data indicates is the factors that resulted in the negative real GDP growth rate recorded in the first quarter of 2025 has not affected employment in the U.S. for the most marginal members of the nation's labor pool. At least as of this writing, which is why we check in on teen jobs data monthly.

You'll notice the seasonally adjusted numbers for the subgroups don't quite add up to the whole, which is because the employment data for each reported demographic gets its own seasonal adjustment. The nonseasonally adjusted data does add up however, so check that out at the BLS' data site if you want to explore employment numbers that do properly add up.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 2 May 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a high school student looking at a help wanted sign on a store window".