The cost of owning the typical new home sold in the United States remained fully out of the affordable reach of the median income-earning household for the 35th consecutive month in February 2025.

However, relative affordability of the monthly mortgage payment for the median priced new home sold during the month improved slightly as both mortgage rates and the median new home price declined while median household income increased. Altogether, we estimate the monthly mortgage payment would consume 39.3% of the monthly income of the typical U.S. household in February 2025.

While that's a decline from January's initial estimate of 42.9%, because it exceeds 36% of the median household's pre-tax income, the upper threshold of household income that mortgage lenders use to determine whether they will lend to a household that has no other debt, we find newly built homes continue to be affordable.

The latest update of our chart tracks the changing relative affordability of the typical new home sold in the U.S. is for the typical American household with respect to the mortgage lending industry's key affordability thresholds from January 2000 through February 2025.

This affordability factor is based on February 2025's initial median new home sale price of $414,500, an estimated median household income of $82,886, and an average 30-year conventional mortgage interest rate of 6.84%.

There is a real potential for improvement in affordability because the average mortgage rate for March 2025 is 6.65%. Whether that potential improvement is realized will hinge on what happens with new home sale prices, for which we won't have data until near the end of April 2025.

About the New Home Affordability Crisis

The affordability crisis for new homes has its origin in the high inflation that was unleashed by the Biden-Harris administration's policies in March 2021. Although it rose slowly at first, the cost of monthly mortgage payment began to skyrocket after December 2021. As a percentage of median household income, the monthly mortgage payment for a new home climbed above the key 36% threshold of relative affordability in April 2022. The relative affordability of new homes has remained above this level for 35 consecutive months.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 March 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 26 March 2025. 

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 29 March 2025. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image credit: Stable Diffusion DreamStudio Beta. Prompt: "House keys next to miniature house, mortgage payment, highly detailed, photorealistic".

U.S. stock market dividends turned in a mostly negative performance in March 2025.

On the positive side of the ledger, March 2025's 16 dividend decreases came in below the 23 recorded in February 2025. Meanwhile, the year-over-year change in dividend reductions was little changed, increasing by just one over March 2024's total.

However, the change in the number of favorable changes like dividend increases, extra dividends and resumed dividends was decidedly negative. Combined, these three categories added to 141 favorable dividend actions for March 2025, which is 59 less than the 200 reported a year earlier.

This significant year-over-year reduction in favorable dividend actions combines with the small increase in unfavorable dividend changes to give March 2025 an overall score of -60. The following table presents Standard and Poor's dividend metadata for March 2025. It summarizes how the month's dividend data compares in both Month-over-Month (MoM) and Year-Over-Year (YoY) terms with previously reported data:

The following chart shows how these numbers fit in the longer running context of dividend increases and decreases since January 2004.

March 2025 represents a continuation of an ongoing negative trend for dividend increases that's been going on since the first quarter of 2023.

Switching to quarterly dividend results, the next chart, groups the previous 15 months worth of dividend increase and decrease data into quarters, covering the last five quarters from 2024-Q1 through 2025-Q1. The chart shows 2025-Q1 was more negative for dividend paying companies in the U.S. stock market than 2024-Q1 was.

The silver lining in this data is that the overall number of monthly dividend decreases remains below the threshold that is consistent with recessionary conditions being present in the U.S. economy.

But with a falling number of favorable dividend actions, how long might that continue?

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 1 April 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear anxiously watching a display that says 'DIVIDEND RESULTS'".

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in February 2025 is $82,651. This figure is $278 (0.3%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,373 in January 2025.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey, which are conducted in the month following the month in question during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for February 2025 is 116.7.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through February 2025:

The firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index last peaked in September 2024 and has been in a flat-to-lower trend in the months since.

Motio Research also generates household income estimates for the 25th and 75th percentiles in addition to its 50th percentile (median) estimate. The firm reports the households at these positions in the income distribution saw mixed outcomes from their January 2025 levels. Here is what they reported in their 18 March 2025 press release:

The real 25th percentile household income index edged up 0.1% in January, rising to 116.0 (or $41,380). However, lower-quartile incomes have declined by 0.8% over the past three months and remain 0.5% lower than a year ago. The index also remains below its pre-Covid peak of 117.7, underscoring continued challenges in income recovery for lower-income households.

At the upper quartile, the real 75th percentile household income index dipped slightly by 0.1%, settling at 121.0 (or $148,162). Over the past three months, upper-quartile household income has increased by 0.3% and is now 1.4% higher than a year ago. Despite February's small decline, higher-income households continue to maintain a strong position well above their pre-pandemic peak of 117.6.

Motio's press release indicates their estimates suggest "ongoing softness in income growth" for lower-income households during the second month of 2025.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research, which we derive from aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in February 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $82,886, which is $89 (or 0.1%) higher than our initial January 2025 estimate of $82,797. Our median household income estimate is $235 (0.3%) higher than Motio Research's January 2025 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through February 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant February 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For February 2025, this data includes very small downward revisions for November (-0.005%) and December 2024 (-0.066%). The revisions also include a larger downward revision to the aggregate income estimate for January 2025 (-0.223%).

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 March 2025. Accessed: 28 March 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 March 2025. Accessed: 28 March 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 12 March 2025. Accessed: 12 March 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell 1.5% during the final full trading week of March 2025, dropping to 5,580.94 on Friday, 28 March 2025, after dropping 1.97% that day.

By our standards, Friday's trading action doesn't quite qualify as an interesting day for the U.S. stock market, where we define "interesting" as a change in the level of the S&P 500 from the previous day's closing value of 2.00% or more for statistical reasons. Still, it was close to that threshold and came as we're trying to determine whether the U.S. stock market has undergone a regime change since Friday, 21 February 2025.

We're not quite 100% to a full determination, but the data so far is more consistent with the market regime change hypothesis being true than not. The latest update of the alternative futures-based chart is based on the observation that such regime change got underway on 24 February 2025, with the basic trajectory of the S&P 500 following the dividend futures-based model's projection that assumes investors are mostly focusing on the now-current quarter of 2025-Q2 in setting current day stock prices.

As we've kept hammering home, most of the negative change in the S&P 500 since 21 February 2025 has been associated with the deflation of the AI-bubble in stock prices. This deflation has ensnared several companies whose stocks represent the highest weighted components of the S&P 500 index. Collectively known as the "Magnificent Seven", the next chart reveals how they've changed from Friday, 21 February 2025 through Friday, 28 March 2025:

Of these seven stocks, only the stock price of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has fallen by a smaller percentage than the overall S&P 500 during this period. Regardless, because of their high weighting within the index, each has made an outsized contribution to the index' decline.

Here are the week's market-moving headlines, many of which from mainstream news outlets are still missing out on what's been the biggest stock market-moving story of the year to date. We've selected some minor headlines to include in this week's edition just to emphasize the extent to which AI-technology associated stocks have dropped.

Monday, 24 March 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices hold steady as investors monitor Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks
• US copper imports soar to 500,000 tons amid tariff threats, says Bloomberg
• Fed minions try to pull back expectations of more rate cuts in 2025:
• Atlanta Fed's Bostic now sees only one rate cut this year
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan's factory activity declines accelerate, services sag, PMI shows
• Eurozone gets some better economic data, ECB minions getting excited to cut rates again:
• Euro zone economy growth accelerates to seven-month high in March, PMI shows
• Key ECB dove makes case for more easing, others more cautious
• S&P 500 ends sharply higher, Nvidia and Tesla rally
• Nasdaq jumped 2%, S&P and Dow also rallied on hopes of more targeted tariffs by Trump
• Trump says he will soon announce tariffs on autos, aluminum, pharmaceuticals

Tuesday, 25 March 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises for fifth day on supply concerns after Venezuela tariffs
• US new home sales rebound in February
• Stagflation on the radar for the US economy, but no repeat of the '70s
• How companies are responding to Trump's tariffs
• Fed minions worry about persistent Bidenflation:
• Fed's Kugler: Uptick in goods inflation 'unhelpful'
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Trade of Venezuelan oil to China stalls after new Trump order
• Chinese Tech Stocks Plunge From 3 Year High To Correction In Just 5 Days
• ECB minions getting super excited for more rate cuts:
• ECB rates could fall to 2% by end of summer, Villeroy says
• Wall Street posts first three-day win streak since early Feb

Wednesday, 26 March 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles up 1% on US crude and fuel stock draw, Venezuela supply worries
• US oil, gas activity rose in first quarter, but energy execs wary of tariffs, Dallas Fed says
• Front-loading ahead of tariffs boosts US durable goods orders
• Trump sets auto tariffs announcement for Wednesday
• Trump likely to use 2019 probe to justify tariffs on auto imports
• Fed minions worried about persistent inflation staying higher for longer:
• St. Louis Fed's Musalem says tariffs could trigger more persistent inflation
• Fed should stay put for extended period amid policy uncertainty, Kashkari says
• Fed's Goolsbee sees lower interest rates in a year's time, but warns of uncertainties, FT reports
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's industrial profits fall in January-February as economic risks mount
• ECB minions trying to curb some of their enthusiasm for more rate hikes:
• ECB must be pragmatic, data driven in setting rates, Panetta says
• Wall Street's three-day rally turns sour as traders brace for new auto tariffs
• Magnificent 7 stocks 'look attractive' right now, CIO says

Thursday, 27 March 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US oil producers face new challenges as top oilfield flags
• Fed minions worry over how tariffs might affect auto industry:
• Fed's Barkin: Auto firms under tariffs will face tough choices on pricing, margins
• Fed's Barkin: Extensive uncertainty could hit demand, policy in good place awaiting more clarity
• Fed's Collins says it is clear tariffs will drive inflation up near term
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China vice premier pledges more policy support, says economy started 2025 well
• China accelerates government bond issuance in Q1 to highest on record
• China's central bank says debt level rising, easing on track
• BOJ minions say they'll raise rates to fight inflation, but also that inflation is making real interest rates in Japan very low:
• BOJ's Ueda vows to raise rates if inflationary pressures broaden
• New BOJ board member Koeda says real interest rates very low
• ECB minions claim they're keeping close watch on how solvent Eurozone banks are:
• ECB says it watches bank liquidity closely, works well with Fed
• U.S. stocks close slightly down as traders mull over auto tariffs
• S&P 500 ends lower as investors digest Trump's auto tariffs

Friday, 28 March 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Moderate US consumer spending, increasing prices raise specter of stagflation
• VIEW US Feb PCE prices index shows inflation picture still a conundrum
• Oil slips on recession fears but posts 3rd weekly gain
• Surge in gold imports continues to distort trade figures, analysts say
• Fed minion admits they failed to fix Bidenflation, think it will persist longer:
• Exclusive: Fed's Daly: Inflation progress has been flat, dents confidence in rate cut view
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's top airlines post fifth year of losses in 2024 as competition weighs
• Top Chinese banks' profits stagnate, margins shrink as economy weighs
• China will resolutely respond to US reciprocal tariffs, state media says
• Bigger inflation trouble developing in Japan:
• Core inflation in Japan's capital accelerates, stays above BOJ target
• ECB minions think Eurozone consumers are idiots, see more lending in Eurozone:
• Euro zone consumers may be put off by inflation 'misperception,' ECB's Schnabel says
• ECB's Nagel encouraged but warns against 'over-optimism' on inflation target
• Euro zone lending growth accelerates further, ECB data shows
• Wall Street puts in worst session since early March, slides to weekly loss
• Wall Street tumbles as fresh data fuels inflation fear
• The "Magnificent Seven" Stocks Are Selling Off. Here Are My Top 5 to Buy Now.
• Nasdaq Correction: 2 AI Stocks Down 26% and 46% to Buy Before They Soar, According to Wall Street

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool's projections are mostly unchanged going into this week. The FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will resume cutting rates with a quarter point rate reduction when Fed meets on 18 June (2025-Q2). The FedWatch tool also anticipates additional quarter point rate cuts at 12-week intervals in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the Fed's FOMC meetings on 18 June (2025-Q2), 17 September (2025-Q3), and 10 December (2025-Q4). The only notable change is there's now a dividend cut projected in mid-2026, which outside investors' typical 0-12 month investment horizon window.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of what real GDP growth will be in 2025-Q1 hels steady at -1.8%. However, the GDPNow tool is now providing an alternate model forecast that corrects for the surge in gold imports, which are skewing it's projection. That adjusted forecast indicates -0.5% growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear looking at a stock chart that's falling. The chart says 'Magnificent Seven'."

It's always interesting to us to see how other data visualists who draw from the same data sources we do go about developing and presenting their own visualizations of that data.

In October 2024, we featured several visualizations drawn from the Consumer Expenditure Survey about a month after the data had just been published. That data represents how American households spent money in 2023 and our approach was to break that spending down into major categories and explore how that spending has evolved over the past 40 years.

About three months later, Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufield and Sabrina Lam visited the same data source, but chose to focus on just 2023 itself. They used the data to create an infographic showing how much and on what the average American household spent their money on during that year. Here's their visualization:

Since we just covered where the total compensation earned by the average American in December 2024 comes from, we thought this graphic made for a nice companion feature because it shows a good part of what Americans do with their take-home compensation. That assumes the relative share of what Americans spend on each category it shows hasn't much changed from 2023 to 2024.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey showing how Americans spent money in 2024 won't be available until sometime in September 2025, so we won't be able to properly match the spending of American households in 2024 with the average total compensation of an individual American in 2024 until then.

Reference

Dorothy Neufeld and Sabrina Lam. Visualizing How Americans Spend Their Money? [Online article]. Visual Capitalist. 26 January 2025.