Motio Research reports their initial estimate of U.S. median household income for March 2026 is $88,310. This value represents a $680 (or 0.8%) increase from the firm's initial estimate of $87,630 for February 2026.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey. This survey is conducted during the week containing the 12th day of the month following the month in which its data applies. Motio Research adjusts its raw monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for March 2026 is 119.8.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through March 2026:

Motio's survey-based estimates indicate the pace of growth of median household income has resumed increasing rapidly since January 2026. Our working hypothesis is the survey-based median household income estimates are reflecting a combination of rising household incomes and the exit of millions of very low income earning foreigners who have departed the United States in response to cash incentives and free travel to their home countries that have been offered by the Trump administration.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces median household income estimates using other original data sources that complement Motio Research's survey-based estimates. Our estimates have been lagging behind Motio Research's estimates because of delays in the reporting of the aggregate income we use to generate them stemming from the Senate Democrats' government shutdowns. As of 30 April 2026 however, those delays have ended. We are now able to fully catch up with median household income estimates for both February and March 2026. Here they are, starting with our initial estimate of median household income for January 2026 to show how they've changed:

• January 2026: $86,506
• February 2026: $86,896, an increase of $275 (+0.3%) from January 2026
• March 2026: $87,164, an increase of $269 (+0.3%) from February 2026

The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through March 2026.

Political Calculations' March 2026 estimate is $1,146 (or 1.3%) below Motio Research's initial estimate of $88,310 for March 2026. We think this difference is attributable to the BEA's use of projections to estimate aggregate wage and salary income, which is not currently capturing the departure of millions of very low income earning foreign-born individuals from the U.S. labor force. We anticipate there will be substantial revisions to this data as it is replaced by more accurate aggregate earned income data.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 April 2026. Accessed: 30 April 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 April 2026. Accessed: 30 April 2026.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

April 2026 saw positive changes for the ten worst performing stocks the S&P 500 (Index: INX) served up for Thanksgiving 2025.

Since 28 November 2025, the 503 stocks that make up the market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 index have collectively risen to 104.2% of their value on the day after Thanksgiving Day in 2025.

But when similarly weighted by their market caps into their own index, the ten worst performing stocks of the S&P 500 in 2025, a.k.a. the Thanksgiving Leftover stocks, have collectively fallen to 95.5% of their value on the day after Thanksgiving 2025. Still, that's quite an improvement over where there were almost a month ago when they bottomed at 90.3% of their post-Thanksgiving Day level, even though it would have been outperformed by the entire S&P 500 index.

It could even be much worse. Over the same five month interval, an equal-weighted index of the same ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks have fallen to be worth just 89.1% of their recorded value at the close of trading on 29 April 2026. Together, they had plunged as low as 80.5% of their day after Thanksgiving Day level on 27 March 2026 before proceeding to stage a recovery through April 2026.

The following chart shows how each of these groupings of stocks, the S&P 500 index and the ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks, both market cap-weighted and equal-weighted, have fared since 28 November 2025.

As a group, the Thanksgiving Leftover stocks are clearly still losers with respect to the whole S&P 500 index. But individually, three of these ten stocks have outperformed the entire index in the five months since 28 November 2025.

The next chart tracks how each of the ten Thanksgiving Leftover stocks have performed over this period, showing their value on 29 April 2026 as a percentage of their value on 28 November 2025:

In previous editions of this series, we've focused on the worst of 2025's ten worst S&P 500 stocks. But the gains of three stocks are clearly putting the whole index' performance to shame.

Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) has done the best of the bunch through 29 April 2026, increasing to 165.8% of its value on 28 November 2025. The chemical company's stock has benefited from the restructuring of its business to focus on growth opportunities, which led its stock to rise from $23.85 on 28 November 2025 to $32.65 on 13 February 2026. Since then however, the company has seen its forecast earnings soar along with other publicly-traded chemical companies as a result of the Iran war because the geopolitical event has disrupted the operations of their largest international competitors in the Middle East.

The second-best performing Thanksgiving Leftover stock is Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH). The health insurer has seen quite a lot of volatility in 2026, but in the last few weeks, its stock has sharply risen because it beat its earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2026 by a wide margin. Molina Healthcare accomplished this result by focusing on controlling its costs, while the company has benefited from the escalation of Medicare reimbursement rates that were announced earlier in the month.

The third Leftover stock doing better than the S&P 500 is Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK). On 29 April 2026, the shoe company's stock was 115.1% of its 28 November 2025 level. Deckers Outdoor has fallen since peaking after it announced strong earnings near the end of January 2026, but still remains above the S&P 500's level.

In any case, we now have an answer to the question we raised at the end of our previous edition of this series: If you were going to place a bet on the outcome, would you take the over or the under for the Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks given where they were at a month ago? Readers who took the over would be winners.

But what about now? If you were offered a new chance to place a bet for where the Thanksgiving Leftover stocks will be at the end of May 2026, compared to their level at the close of trading on 29 April 2026, would you take the over or the under?

Not that it's much help, but there's a reason why so many commercials for trading firms carry the disclaimer: "Past performance is not indicative of future results". With that in mind, if you won the last time around, would you go for double or nothing?

From Our World In Data, here's an interactive chart showing how life expectancy for Americans who have reached the indicated age has changed from birth (for Americans born from 1880 through 2023) and for those who have reached the indicated age (from 1933 through 2023):

As of 2023, U.S. life expectancy for all age groups has more than fully recovered from 2020's Coronavirus Pandemic. Here is a static version of the chart that we created after creating an alternate interactive version of the chart using Datawrapper's data visualization tools.

Going by Mars' calendar, the third quarter of Mars Year 38 (MY38) ended on Friday, 24 April 2026. Sadly, the Red Planet's nascent economy remained stalled with no new rock samples either drilled or stored for future export by the Mars Perseverance rover during the 146 (Earth) days of the quarter. Mars GDP' for the quarter is therefore $0.

The following video provides a very brief introduction to the work the Mars Perseverance rover has done that counts as Mars' only economic activity at its current phase of exploration.

At present, there is no feasible path for the export of the collected samples either stored on the rover or stored at a depot location on the Martian surface. Even the least costly proposals for a sample return mission were determined to be too expensive to execute with available technologies, resulting in the funding for continued development for it being cancelled in January 2026.

The following chart shows the economic activity generated by the Mars Perseverance rover since it has been on Mars, by Martian year and quarter:

The lack of a viable means to return the Perseverance samples doesn't mean those samples won't ever be collected and exported to Earth, but it underscores the failure in the original planning that left the sample return portion of the mission too poorly defined. The first missions that do return samples from Mars will almost certainly return the samples they collect using return launch capabilities they specifically transport with them.

For example, Japan's Space Agency plans to launch a probe to Mars' moon Phobos to collect and return a sample, building on the experience the gained from retrieving samples from asteroids. Meanwhile, fabrication has begun on China's probe that will return samples from the surface of Mars.

In other news, we may need to revisit our estimates of the value of the Mars' rock samples currently stocked in the Perseverance inventory and the "Three Forks" sample depot. An experiment conducted on the older Mars Curiosity rover on its drilled rock samples provided evidence of some very interesting organic chemistry:

NASA's Curiosity Mars rover has uncovered a diverse mix of organic molecules on Mars, including chemicals widely considered building blocks for the origin of life on Earth.

The findings, which come from a chemical experiment performed for the first time on another world, reveal that the Martian surface can preserve the kinds of molecules that could serve as signs of ancient life. However, this experiment cannot distinguish between organic compounds from potential past life on Mars and those formed through geologic processes or delivered by meteorites.

Definitively identifying signs of past life would require returning rock samples to Earth.

Here's the paper where the findings were reported on 21 April 2026.

Our Mars GDP estimates are based on the estimated value of the rock samples collected for export by the Mars Perseverance rover, which are in turn based on the value of Martian meteorites that have been found on Earth that have not had similar evidence of organic compounds. Samples that do have these compounds will be substantially more valuable. Should any of the Perseverance samples have such a chemical signature, we will likely need to revise our GDP estimates upward to capture their greater value.

What that value might be has yet to be determined.

The second-longest ever winning streak for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was broken on Monday, 20 April 2026. The streak had endured for 13 days, one short of the all time record.

While the streak was broken, all was not bad for Wall Street bulls, who could celebrate the index hitting a new all-time record high closing value of 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026.

The streak largely came about as a result of the cease fire in the Iran War, which was at risk of ending before President Trump announced an extension during the past week. The markets new highs came in response to that event, the prospect of diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran soon resuming, and the strength of earnings out of the market's technology sector.

All these things kept the trajectory of the S&P 500 running along the bottom end of the redzone forecast range we added to the alternative futures chart back in February, as shown in its latest update. That range assumes investors would be focused on the current quarter of 2026-Q2, which they certainly have been, even with the disruption of the Iran war geopolitical event.

The centerline of the redzone forecast range provides a reasonable estimate of where the S&P 500 would have gone in the absence of the Iran war. From Friday, 17 April 2026 through Friday, 24 April 2026, the index has ranged between 2.5 and 3.0% below that trajectory, which is to say the geopolitical event is keeping the S&P 500 from rising even higher.

What happens next for the S&P 500 will be determined by investor reactions to the random onset of new information. Here are the market-moving headlines that affected the trajectory of the index during the week that was.

Monday, 20 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise anew after a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz strands tankers
• Future chief Fed minions goes up for Senate interview:
• Fed chief nominee Warsh commits to central bank's independence, with limits
• Fed chair nominee Warsh has big ideas. Here are some, in his own words
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China curtailing, not banning fuel exports, shipping data shows
• BOJ minions expected to pass on hiking rates in April, but look forward to June 2026:
• Exclusive: BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates in April, sources say
• Japan households' inflation expectations steady, BOJ April hike bets fade
• BOJ's hawkish hints keep rate hike on the cards
• ECB minions thinking about getting more data before ditching their perfect monetary policy:
• ECB needs more data before firm policy conclusions, Lagarde says
• Wall Street closes slightly down on renewed tensions between US, Iran
• Wall Street ends down as the U.S.-Iran peace deal remains uncertain

Tuesday, 21 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices climb 5% after Trump says he does not want to extend Iran ceasefire
• US crude and fuel exports surge to record highs, but it's not enough
• Record surge in gasoline receipts boosts US retail sales, but weakness is looming
• Price hikes, outlook cuts - What airlines are doing as fuel costs surge
• US pending home sales beat expectations in March
• Prospective new chief minion calls for 'regime change' at Fed, current Fed minions weigh in with suggestions:
• Warsh calls for 'regime change' at Fed, new inflation approach
• As Warsh faces hearing, a framework for smaller Fed balance sheet emerges
• Five things we learned at Fed nominee Warsh's Senate hearing
• Fed's Waller calls for overhaul of regional Fed bank operations
• Fed's Waller would 'absolutely' oppose firing reserve bank presidents over rate disagreement
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's youth jobless rate rises to 16.9% in March
• China targets 100 trillion yuan services sector by 2030 in upgrade push
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Germany's big carmakers used to lead the race in China, but now they're 'for the parents'
• ECB minions priming to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged, think private credit is a threat:
• ECB must keep cool head on rates amid Iran war, de Guindos says
• ECB sees private credit as risk to financial stability, de Guindos says
• Wall Street extends losses as a U.S.-Iran resolution remains uncertain

Wednesday, 22 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump extends Iran ceasefire, maintains Hormuz blockade
• Oil prices rise after reports container ships in Hormuz hit by gunfire
• How the Iran war oil and gas supply shock compares with past disruptions
• Fed minions expected to cut U.S. interest rates before end of 2026:
• Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China unveils plan to make cities more youth, child friendly
• BOJ minions worried about Iran war dragging out:
• BOJ warns prolonged Mideast tensions could raise costs, corporate defaults
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record as Trump extends ceasefire deadline with Iran
• S&P, Nasdaq close at records on Iran ceasefire extension, earnings
• S&P 500 PE looks cheap, but high oil prices still pose a threat

Thursday, 23 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Brent crude futures jump on Trump's threats over Strait of Hormuz
• Trump on gas prices: Americans should expect to pay more 'for a little while'
• Record demand can't save US airlines from Iran war fuel shock
• American Airlines dims 2026 forecast as high fuel costs hurt margins
• Trump administration nears $500 million Spirit rescue as Iran fuel shock hits airlines
• US fixed 30-year mortgage rate drops to 6.23%
• New grads are finding jobs faster despite a competitive job market, says report
• Fed minions thinking about what they mean when they say they have a 2% inflation target, maybe cutting rates in late 2026:
• A Warsh-led Fed's 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%
• Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks: Reuters poll
• ECB minions expected to ditch their perfect monetary policy with rate hikes in June 2026:
• ECB to raise rates in June on war-driven inflation but path beyond unclear
• Meanwhile, bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• Euro zone business activity contracted in April as costs rocketed, PMI shows
• U.S. stocks end lower as conflict in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies
• Stocks close lower on fading hopes for quick Iran deal, mixed quarterly earnings

Friday, 24 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices fall on report Iran foreign minister to arrive in Pakistan for peace talks
• 20,000 job cuts at Meta, Microsoft raise concern that AI-driven labor crisis is here
• Incoming chief Fed minion wants better inflation data, has path to secure Senate confirmation cleared as DOJ bends to Senator Tillis' demand to end criminal probe of Fed:
• Warsh's quest for better inflation data is a well-worn, difficult pursuit for Fed
• DOJ drops criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removes hurdle for Warsh confirmation
• Tillis Praises Warsh but Says He Won’t Back Him for Fed Chair
• Pervasive AI technologies and bigger stimulus developing in China:
• DeepSeek previews new AI model adapted to run on Huawei chips
• After call from Beijing, China's auto industry races to embed AI in just about everything
• China to curb US investment in tech companies, Bloomberg News reports
• White House accuses China of industrial-scale theft of AI technology
• China first-quarter fiscal spending quickens as Beijing seeks to spur growth
• BOJ minions get reason to not hike rate this month:
• Japan's core inflation stays below BOJ target, energy risks grow
• S&P 500, Nasdaq snatch another record as U.S. continues ceasefire negotiations with Iran
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records on tech lift, Iran peace talk hopes
• US chipmakers hit record highs as Intel turbocharges AI rally
• Intel forecasts second-quarter revenue above estimates, shares jump 19%
• Most US companies seen sticking with quarterly reporting
• More than 25% chance the S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026 – Kalshi

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued to anticipate no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, though with a growing bias toward a quarter point rate cut over time.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 ticked down to +1.2%, dipping from its projection of +1.3% growth a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is excited the S&P 500 closed at a new record high of 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026".