The employment situation for U.S. teens held fairly steady in April 2026. The seasonally adjusted number of employed Americans Age 16-19 was 5,379,000. This total falls within the range of 5,357,000 and 5,425,000 recorded for each month in 2026.

The same pattern holds when looking at the data for younger teens (Age 16-17) and older teens (Age 18-19). Older teens have seen their numbers range between 3,418,000 and 3,496,000 since January 2026, with the higher figure applying for April 2026. That puts a little under 42% of the Age 18-19 population into the employed category.

Younger teens have seen their numbers within the working portion of the U.S. civilian labor force range between 1,926,000 and 2,000,000, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a seasonally adjusted total of 1,929,000 for April 2026, with a little under 21% of this age demographic's population counted as having jobs.

For the combined Age 16-19 population, 30.6% were counted as employed after the BLS' seasonal adjustments. The following pair of charts presents these figures and shows the trends for teen employment since January 2021.

That's a good sign since the U.S. is going into the summer hiring season, which large numbers of teens enter into the U.S. labor force each year as their school year ends. The following video gives an idea of what kind of work many teens will be able to find during Summer 2026:

Similar initiatives for local governments to create jobs for teens to support publicly-funded summer programs work is being made in large U.S. cities. These programs are in addition to the regular seasonal employment spikes that take place in the private sector.

Looking at longer term trends, fewer teens can be expected to find work in 2026 than in the first two years following 2020's coronavirus pandemic. In those years, teens benefited for several reasons, including:

• They were much less likely to have health problems than older Americans related to COVID infections, giving them an advantage in the job market.
• Large portions of the teen population had never previously been employed, so were not eligible for COVID stimulus unemployment benefits, which gave many older, but lower income-earning Americans an incentive to stay unemployed until the benefit checks ran out. The effect of this policy was to reduce competition for lower-paying jobs, which opened the door for many teens to enter the labor force.
• The introduction of remote schooling as many schools were sluggish in returning to in-person schooling, which gave many teens more time during the day to pursue gainful employment while attending school "virtually".

There's more to the post-pandemic teen employment boom story than these examples. Regardless, these reasons behind it are still not fully appreciated.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 8 May 2026.

Image credit: Summer jobs sign posted on tree by Andy Oakley on Flickr. Creative Commons Creative Commons - CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed out the trading week ending on Friday, 8 May 2026 at its highest closing value ever: 7,398.93. The index itself was up 2.3% from the preceding trading week's close.

Much of the market's gain came as AI-technology companies reported very strong earnings, which is ultimately what powered the index higher during the week that was.

So much so that it largely erased what was left from the Iran war's negative impact. We can show that's the case in the following chart because the trajectory of the S&P 500 has returned to the middle of the redzone forecast range we added to the chart in late February 2026. Though we added it for other reasons, the centerline of the range has functioned well as a counterfactual projection of where the S&P 500 would have gone had the Iran war geopolitical event never occurred.

The market moving headlines of the week that was reveal just how much the strong earnings being reported in the AI-technology sector contributed to the S&P 500's gains during the week that was:

Monday, 4 May 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil jumps after Iran's navy said it halted a US warship
• Oil up 3% after Iran claims it attacked US warship; US denies report
• Iran attacks UAE; U.S. says it sank boats in Strait of Hormuz
• Oil eases on signs US is loosening Iranian closure of Strait of Hormuz
• OPEC+ agrees third oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure
• Fed minions claim they can't do their jobs because of Iran conflict, are told that U.S. interest rates are too high:
• Kashkari says Iran war limits Fed's ability to provide rate guidance
• Recent inflation data was 'bad news,' Fed's Goolsbee says
• Williams says Fed policy well positioned for economic risks, uncertainty
• Trump says interest rates are too high
• Eurozone minions look to get US trade deal after Trump tariff threat:
• EU countries push to settle US trade deal to avoid car tariff hike
• Trump says he will raise tariff on autos from European Union to 25%
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• Euro zone firms see new inflation surge if war lasts months, ECB poll shows
• ECB policymaker says euro zone recession concerns 'real and justified'
• ECB minions thinking about ditching their perfect, well positioned monetary policy despite recession threat:
• ECB may need to hike rates in June, Nagel says
• ECB needs "critical mass of data" before hikes, Villeroy says
• ECB's Kazimir: June rate hike all but inevitable
• S&P 500 falls from record high on Middle East worries
• Wall Street ended lower as focus remained on U.S.-Iran developments

Tuesday, 5 May 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US job openings, hires point to stable labor market
• US job openings drop in March; hires increase sharply
• Data suggests ‘hiring recession’ may be behind us — but the Iran war poses job market risks
• US service sector growth cools as order growth drops by most in 3 years
• Oil prices fall 4% as fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, two ships pass through Strait of Hormuz
• US gasoline prices top $4.50 a gallon as summer driving season nears
• US new home sales increase in February and March; median price drops
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch records as AI chip stocks surge
• Wall Street ended higher as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire continues to hold

Wednesday, 6 May 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls below $100 a barrel on Middle East peace hopes
• Fed minions say Iran war looks like an inflationary shock, worry about U.S. economy overheating, have no idea whether boosting productivity will curtail inflation or add to it:
• Fed's Goolsbee says Iran war impact looking more like an inflationary shock
• Fed's Musalem: Risks have shifted towards higher inflation
• NY Fed says April supply chain pressures highest since July 2022
• Fed's Goolsbee: AI success would be 'lovely,' but Fed would still need to watch for overheating
• Fed's Goolsbee says rising productivity could restrain inflation or boost it
• ECB minions thinking more about hiking Eurozone interest rates:
• Chance of ECB rate hike has risen, board member Cipollone says
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch records; AMD results spark AI stock rally
• Nasdaq climbed 2% as equities closed higher on renewed hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal

Thursday, 7 May 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US labor market stable as layoffs remain low
• US trade court rules Trump tariffs illegal, but issues narrow block
• Fed minions, number one buyers of U.S. government debt, excited to say demand for U.S. government debt is high; worry about inflationary mindset but say U.S. interest rates will stay on hold:
• Fed's Williams says demand remains robust for US government debt
• Fed's Hammack voices concern about 'inflationary mindset' taking hold
• Fed's Hammack says rates likely on hold 'for quite some time' amid elevated inflation
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China asks banks to pause new loans to US-sanctioned refiners, Bloomberg News reports
• China's exports likely picked up pace in April on Iran war stockpiling: Reuters poll
• China energy imports drop in April amid Iran war as fuel exports hit decade low
• BOJ minions busy with bigger bailout of Japan's currency, explore additional reason to justify plan to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Japan may have spent $32 billion in additional yen-buying intervention
• Japan to keep intervening to defend 160-per-dollar level, ex-BOJ official says
• Japan keeps US close as it signals unlimited yen defence
• BOJ debated need for rate hike if energy shock persists, minutes show
• ECB minions facing structural problems in Eurozone economy, getting excited to ditch perfect monetary policy to hike Eurozone interest rates:
• Euro zone's integration fails to reach stock markets, ECB says
• German banks have capital but find few good borrowers, Bundesbank says
• ECB's Schnabel bolsters rate hike bets, warns of 'quiet erosion' of central bank independence
• S&P 500 ends down as chip stocks give up gains
• Wall Street finished lower as investors await U.S.-Iran peace deal updates

Friday, 8 May 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• April jobs report shows continued strength
• US nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in April, but some weakness lurking underneath
• US container imports fell 5.5% in April on trade and geopolitical risks, Descartes says
• Oil pares early gains a day after renewed US-Iran fighting
• Fed minions worry about policy drag from former chief minion lingering on, say job market is "holding in", whatever that means:
• Fed's Miran hopes Powell staying at Fed is transitional - Fox Business
• Fed's Goolsbee tells CNBC that job market is holding in
• Bigger trouble for world developing in China:
• China April exports rebound strongly, trade surplus widens ahead of Trump visit
• BOJ minions getting the wage-price inflation they wanted to justify plan for interest rate hikes in Japan, worked over holiday to bail out Japan's currency:
• Japan real wages climb for third month in March, backing case for BOJ rate hike
• Japan intervened in forex market again during May holidays, source says
• Japan bets on Washington, BOJ for extra punch in yen battle
• Wall Street climbs after the latest jobs report and brushes off Middle East concerns
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch records, boosted by AI and earnings optimism
• S&P 500 records weekly gains following strong jobs report, defying geopolitical jitters

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued to anticipate no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 with a small bias in favor of a quarter point rate cut in 2026-Q3, but also has a small bias for a quarter point rate hike in the first half of 2027.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimate of +3.7% real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 held steady.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is happy to see a newspaper headline that says 'AI IS BACK, BABY!' and a bear who is worried by a smaller headline that says 'RALLY IS REALLY NARROW', and an even smaller headline that says 'IRAN WAR NOT DONE YET'".

The animated television show South Park has satirized many things over the years, but none more effectively than its creators' take on corporate business plans. Yes, we're talking about the "Underpants Gnomes" episode, which featured one of the greatest corporate presentations of all time!

Here it is, in all its technicolor glory and salty language (which is, of course, part of its DNA):

That scene with the Underpants Gnomes' business plan came quickly to the IIE team's mind thanks to the patented innovation we're featuring in this edition. Maria T. Portela's remarkable invention of Disposable Boxer Shorts, for which she received U.S. Patent 6,539,554 on 1 April 2003.

The patent illustrations don't really do it justice but here are Figures 5, 6 and 7, which give a sense of how the disposable material used to craft the undergarment comes together.

The patentable trick to making boxer shorts disposable isn't the pattern emphasized by these figures, but rather the material out of which they are made. The patent's description of its illustrations tell us exactly what inventor Maria T. Portela had in mind as she conceived her innovation:

A preferred embodiment of the present disposable boxer shorts is shown in an exploded front view in FIG. 1. It is comprised of a back panel 10, a right front panel 11, and a left front panel 12, all made of a strong cloth-like paper, such as the material used for making the paper towel sold under the trademark "VIVA" by the Kimberly Clark company.

At this point, we'd like to point out this is not a satire and we are not making any of this up.

Intellectual property attorney Gene Quinn was also quite impressed by Maria T. Portela's vision:

Essentially, these are boxer shorts made out of paper towels, but not just any paper towels. These boxer shorts are made out of VIVA paper towels. I personally would have thought that BOUNTY (i.e., the Quicker Picker-Upper) would have made a better choice, but what is objectively best is not what the best mode requirement is all about. To satisfy the best mode the inventor needs to provide description of his/her subjective preferences.

The "best mode requirement" is a legal concept that comes from a statutory requirement in U.S. patent law. To receive a patent, inventors must disclose what they think is the most effective means by which their concept may be put into practical application. Without that discussion, the patent would not have been issued.

We went looking to see if Maria T. Portela's patented disposable boxer shorts ever made it to the marketplace, and that's what ultimately led us to the Underpants Gnomes business model, which we modified for this product.

• Phase 1: Make disposable boxer shorts out of Viva paper towels.
• Phase 2: ?
• Phase 3: Profit!

Alas, we couldn't find any evidence of boxer shorts having been produced from Kimberly Clark's Viva paper towels and sold to consumers. We imagine the marketers at the paper products giant couldn't work out what Phase 2 needed to be to make disposable boxer shorts a mass-produced consumer product staple.

From the Inventions in Everything Archives

The IIE team has previously uncovered the following underwear-related invention, which involves quite different materials:

• Inventions in Everything: Bulletproof Underwear

This won't be our last time discussing disposable underwear. As part of our research for this edition, we came across another patent for disposable underwear, which may get a true shot at getting to the marketplace. We'll get to the story of that invention sometime later this year.

The U.S. and China represent the two largest national economies on Earth. Since President Trump's 2 April 2025 "Liberation Day" global tariff announcement, trade between the two nations has plummeted by 39%. Just released data for February and March 2026 however indicates a bottom is forming in the combined value of goods that are being directly exchanged between the two countries.

That's a lot of information to unpack, so let's get to it!

The 39% decline in trade between the U.S. and China represents the percentage difference between the actual combined value of goods traded between the two nations through March 2026 and a counterfactual based on a simple straight-line projection of what a rolling twelve month average of that trade would have looked like had it continued following the same trajectory it was on from March 2024 through March 2025.

The counterfactual projection would have seen the value of US-China trade clock in at $50.3 billion in March 2026. Trade data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in March 2026 indicates the actual rolling twelve month average of trade between the U.S. and China was $30.7 billion. The following chart shows both the counterfactual projection (the red-dashed line) and the actual rolling twelve month average (the thick solid black line), where the current decline has taken place starting from April 2025.

The chart also shows the rate at which the actual rolling twelve month average is plummeting is starting to slow. That's mainly because the level of direct trade between the U.S. and China is stabilizing at a level between $27 billion and $34 billion per month, as indicated by the actual monthly data (the thinner purple line).

Looking again at the counterfactual and rolling twelve month average data, we estimate the cumulative loss of direct trade between the U.S. and China in the twelve months from April 2025 through March 2026 is $128.1 billion.

To put that level of trade into perspective, economist Gita Gopinath indicates that "China’s share in US imports at 9% is back down to what it was right before China joined the WTO (2001)."

Regular readers will note a change in how we're describing the U.S. Census Bureau's trade data for goods exported to and from the U.S. and China, which we now describe as "direct" trade. That's because of other trade research that finds a lot of trade is still occurring between the U.S. and China, which is being passed through other nations as intermediaries, particularly in southeastern Asia. In effect, the true national origin of those goods is being masked in both the U.S. and China's official trade data as appearing to be going to and from other nations.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 5 May 2026.

Image credit: A large crane beside an empty container ship in Lianyungang, China photo by Bing Zhang on Unsplash.

The U.S. new home market has largely recovered from the disruption of January 2026's blizzards.

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total value of new home sales in the United States during February and March 2026 as measured by a time-shifted, partial twelve month trailing average is $28.45 billion and $28.24 billion respectively, which are both up from January 2026's first estimate of $27.37 billion.

Overall, the time-shifted, trailing twelve month average of new home sales in the U.S. is holding fairly steady. The annualized total number of new home sales has ranged between 671,000 and 684,000 since January 2024.

New home prices however have been on a rising trend since bottoming in September 2024. The time-shifted, trailing twelve month average sale price of a new home in the U.S. has risen from $502,525 in September 2024 to $522,950 in March 2026. The average remains below the peak of $529,692 recorded for June 2022 at the height of the high inflation unleashed by the Biden administration.

The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their average sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through March 2026.

Steady trend for new home sales:

Rising trend for new home prices:

We'll take a separate look at the relative affordability of new homes in the near future.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 5 May 2026. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 5 May 2026. 

Image Credit: Wooden structure under construction photo by Nate Johnston on Unsplash.