"Necessity is the mother of invention."

While the origin of this proverb has long since been lost, there's a lot of truth to it. The now more-than-ten million patents issued by the U.S. Patent Office stand as a testament to the ingenuity of all the inventors who have sought to meet the unmet needs of their day with their inventions.

Now, with that in mind, think about the unmet need that must have served as the inspiration for U.S. Patent 6,681,419. This invention is officially described in the 2002 patent as a Forehead Support Apparatus by its inventor, Eric D. Page. However, it is really better described as a headrest for the patrons of fine establishments who require this form of additional support while utilizing the establishment's standing urinal facilities.

We're not making it up. Here's our colorized version of Figure 1 from the patent:

Let's get to the good part. The background section of the patent describes exactly the unmet need that inventor Page was out to solve with this innovation and how it meets that need. We've added the links to the other patents he references:

Those who are tired and weary and find themselves in need of using a urinal or a commode may find the time required to stand in an upright position excessively long and burdensome. At present, the only option for in any way relieving the stress and tension of a tired or depleted body is to simply place the forehead against the wall onto which the urinal or commode is positioned or attached.

A number of prior U.S. patents are known to applicant which are intended to provide some support for a portion of the torso or limb of a user as follows:

• U.S. Pat. No. 6,154,903 to Wai-Chung
• U.S. Pat. No. 4,560,201 to Scott
• U.S. Pat. No. 5,632,050 to Zajas et al.

However, none of these devices in any way provide a teaching for use thereof for supportive leaning comfort as above described to someone using a urinal or commode.

One device disclosed in U.S. Pat. No. 6,061,842 invented by Randolph does disclose a hand support apparatus over a commode or urinal. This device, which is swively adjustable and lockable in various angular orientations with respect to the wall, provides a hand support position for the dirty hands of someone wanting to use a commode or urinal. In one embodiment, disposable sheets are provided so that a subsequent user will have a clean surface against which to place one of another set of dirty hands.

The present invention provides an answer to those users of urinals and commodes which find the duration of the event onerous, possibly made worse by a tired or somewhat incapacitated physical condition. Such a user of a urinal or commode will simply place his forehead against the compressible surface provided by the apparatus to effect a more comfortable inwardly leaning orientation with respect to the commode or urinal.

The patent indicates the invention may also find use in a shower, but if Page were truly focused on that application, there would be a figure to depict it in that use. The invention is pretty clearly intended for the dedicated function of being a headrest for a urinal.

We came up empty in searching for any commercial product based on Page's patent. The closest we could get are headrests for use in a bathtub. However, we did find evidence that at least one establishment has installed urinal headrests that are perhaps inspired by Page's invention for their patrons, but unfortunately, we could not confirm its location to verify it.

From the Inventions in Everything Archives

The IIE team has previously found at least two surprising innovations in restrooms. Here's that short list:

• Inventions in Everything: The Toilet Snorkel
• Inventions in Everything: Making Life More Difficult

The numbers for U.S. stock market dividends took a distinctly bearish direction in August 2024.

We can see that in the form of a single number, which is simply the net year-over-year change in the number of favorable and unfavorable dividend actions. Favorable changes include things like dividend increases, resumptions of dividends after having been suspended, and also special or extra dividend payments for shareholders. Unfavorable changes include dividend decreases and omitted (or passed) dividends.

August 2024 saw the positive development of fewer unfavorable actions, with four fewer dividend reductions or omissions than took place in August 2023. That positive however was more than offset by the negative change in the number of favorable dividend actions, as thirty fewer companies declared they would boost dividend payments to their shareholders than did a year earlier. That makes -24 the single overall net number that describes August 2024's dividend actions.

That negative number continues an ongoing bearish trend for dividend payers in the U.S. stock market over much of the past year. The numbers behind our single number describing the trend for U.S. stock market dividends are presented in the following table, which gives the number of dividend declarations, announced increases, decreases, resumptions, omissions, and special (or extra) dividend payments for August 2024, showing how they changed month-over-month from July 2024 and how they changed year-over-year from August 2023.

While the net trend is negative, the overall level of dividend increases and decreased are still removed from the levels that would confirm the arrival of recessionary conditions in the U.S. economy. The following chart visualizes the monthly counts of dividend increases and decreases from January 2004 through August 2024.

August 2024 reverses the small positive net change recorded in July 2024 and resumes the negative trend we've seen develop in the data since 2023.

We sampled dividend decreases announced during August 2024, finding most were declared by firms that pay variable dividends in the oil and gas sector, which makes sense since oil prices have been falling during the past two months. Despite that, we find the number of these dividend decreasing firms remains well below the threshold we associate with recessionary conditions in the oil and gas industry.

The unanswered big money question is how long might that continue if the bearish trend for dividends continues?

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 4 September 2024.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear looking at a crystal ball with the word 'DIVIDENDS'".

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in July 2024 is $78,545. That figure is $545 (0.7%) below its initial estimate of $79,090 for June 2024.

Motio Research's monthly estimates of median household income are produced using income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its monthly Current Population Survey. As such, this data is subject to variation resulting from regular recurring changes in the sample of Americans responding to the survey each month. The data for June 2024 had been remarkable in showing a larger $780 (+1.0%) increase from the firm's initial May 2024 estimate.

These changes are consistent with common variation within the surveyed sample of the population. While its estimates vary from month-to-month, over time, Motio Research's estimates track the overall trend for median household income and give a reasonably accurate indication of its level.

The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through July 2024:

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research. Our initial estimate of median household income in July 2024 based upon our alternate methodology is $78,280, which is $161 (0.2%) higher than our $78,119 for May 2024. Our initial estimate of median household income in July 2024 is $265 (0.3%) less than Motio Research's July 2024 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through July 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant July 2024 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For July 2024, this data includes very small revisions to previously reported data for April 2024 (+0.004%), May 2024 (-0.050%) and June 2024 (-0.098%).

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 August 2024. Accessed: 30 August 2024.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 August 2024. Accessed: 30 August 2024.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 14 August 2024. Accessed: 14 August 2024.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached the end of Summer 2024 on the verge of reaching a new record high. The index closed out the final week of August 2024 at 5,648.40, just 18.8 points (0.3%) below its all-time record high close it set on 16 July 2024.

Part of what makes that remarkable is the share of the index' market capitalization claimed by its top 10 component stocks shrank during the last two months. Our summer snapshot found these stocks represented nearly 35.8% of the entire value of the index. Two months later, their share of the index' total valuation has fallen to just over 34.0%.

That's the conveyance effect in action, in which investors taken their gains from top-flying stocks like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and are rotating into other stocks within the index, boosting their relative valuations.

With respect to the dividend futures-based model's alternative futures chart, that was enough to keep the trajectory of the index close to the top end of the latest redzone forecast range on the chart, as expected. Here's the latest update of the chart:

Overall, it was a slow news week following the previous week's major events, which was also to be expected ahead of the long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend. Here are the market-moving headlines from the week that was:

Monday, 26 August 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil up 3% on Libya halt, Mideast escalation fears
• Surging grocery prices in focus as US tries to stop Kroger deal
• Fed minions changing monetary policy too slow, maybe not enough:
• Fed's shift to job market risks is done; now policy has to catch up
• Fed most likely to cut rates by quarter percentage point next month, Daly says
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's low-altitude economy lacks growth roadmap, says industry group
• BOJ minions dealing with self-inflicted credibility problem:
• BOJ shows how action matters more than hawkish signs
• Wall Street ends mixed with S&P and Nasdaq lower, while the Dow hits all-time high

Tuesday, 27 August 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices fall 2% on economic worries, technical decline
• US house prices fall on monthly basis in June
• BOJ minions wonder if they should include wage trends in their economic analysis:
• BOJ to begin initial research to include wage trends to 'tankan'
• ECB minions say more rate cuts ahead, claim they're not sure yet about September:
• ECB can gradually cut rates but jury still out on September, Knot says
• Nasdaq, S&P eke out slight gains, Dow notches new record close ahead of Nvidia test

Wednesday, 28 August 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US 30-year mortgage rate falls to lowest since April 2023
• Oil retreats as demand concerns offset Libya supply risks
• Fed minions send confused message:
• Fed's Bostic: it is 'time to move' on rate cuts, but wants to be sure
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China accelerates coal mining to ensure winter power supply
• BOJ minions claim they'll raise interest rates if Japan's economy can afford them:
• BOJ's Himino reiterates readiness to raise rates if economy on track
• Nasdaq falls more than 1% as tech stocks tumble before big test in Nvidia earnings
• NVIDIA in charts: Data Center revenue continues to surge, but growth rate slows
• Nvidia fails to impress growth-hungry investors, shares fall

Thursday, 29 August 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US second-quarter economic growth revised higher on consumer spending
• US pending home sales tumble to record low in July
• Oil settles up over 1% on worries over supplies from Libya, Iraq
• Bigger trouble, bailouts developing in China:
• China's factory activity seen extending declines in Aug
• China's central bank buys government bonds, stirs intervention talk
• BOJ minions surprised to have better economic news:
• Japan raises economic assessment for first time in 15 months
• ECB minion claims to worry about cutting Eurozone interest rates too quickly:
• ECB's Nagel warns against cutting rates too quickly
• Dow notches new record close; Nasdaq falls as Nvidia loses nearly $200B in market cap

Friday, 30 August 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices face pressure from slow China demand and inventory rise - Reuters poll
• Solid US consumer spending pushes against hopes for hefty Fed rate cut
• U.S. home prices forecast to rise modestly as Fed cuts rates - Reuters poll
• Fed's preferred inflation gauge rises 2.6% Y/Y in July, slightly less than expected
• Fed minions expected to deliver September 2024 rate cut:
• Fed seen on track for September rate cut as inflation cools
• Bank of China minions thinking about how to fix Chinese economy:
• China's interest rate reform will be 'arduous, long' process
• China is fixing housing market with a long gaze
• BOJ minions get data to support more rate hikes, but probably won't:
• Core inflation in Japan's capital perks up, backs case for BOJ hikes
• ECB minions get data to support their next rate cut, thinking about even more:
• Lowest euro zone inflation in 3 years sets up ECB for cut
• ECB's Schnabel keeps door open to further rate cuts
• S&P 500 inches up after upbeat economic data
• Wall Street ends wild August on a positive note as Nasdaq, S&P gain +1% each
• Eventful August sees S&P plunge, then go into recovery mode to clock +2% monthly gains

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool forecast was unchanged. It continues to anticipate the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in its current target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3). On that date, the Fed is expected to start a series of 0.25%-0.50% rate cuts that will occur at six-week intervals well into 2025.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 rebounded to +2.5% from the previous week's projection of +2.0% growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull getting excited as the S&P 500 gets close to setting a new record high".

Imagine if one of the following bad and unexpected things has just happened to you.

• Your car broke down and you can't get to work.
• You injured yourself and you need to go to the emergency room.
• Something broke at your house and you need to get it fixed right away.

We hope that none of these things is an everyday occurrence for you. After all, if any of them were, they wouldn't really be unexpected and would be something for which you could specifically plan. But not these kinds of events. When things like these events happen, their timing is random and they come as a surprise. Being what they are, that often also means dealing with large and unexpected bills for you to pay.

While they may not be the kinds of things for which you may have a specific plan to address, they are exactly the kinds of things for which many personal finance experts recommend you have emergency savings to pay for, whether in part or in full. Emergency savings are perhaps the cheapest insurance you can have to deal with the unexpected costs of a personal emergency.

But how much do these kinds of emergency expenses cost? In truth, that's something that will vary a lot from person to person and the nature of the unexpected events themselves. There is however some average cost data for each of the unexpected event scenarios we've outlined, which might be useful in plan out how much you need to have for your emergency savings. Or at least seeing if they can handle the cost of a "typical" unexpected emergency event.

The following interactive chart presents a range of "average" costs for each of our unexpected scenarios. Please hover your cursor over the low, average, and high-end estimate to get the numbers for each scenario (if you've accessed this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to access a working version):

Here's where the numbers come from for each scenario:

• Car repair: The low estimate represents the average annual costs of car repairs from Cox Automotive, the parent of Kelley Blue Book, who also list the average costs for a variety of common car repairs in 2023. The "average" estimate is Consumer Affairs' 2024 estimate of the annual cost of maintaining and repairing a vehicle. The high estimate is from AAA and represents the average annual maintenance and repair bills reported by the insurer for 2023.
• Medical Emergency: The low, average, and high estimates are all taken from BetterCare's summary of the typical range for how much a visit to an Emergency Room costs in 2024. While other health insurance may cover part or all of the cost of bills you may have, you can still expect to have costs that it won't cover where this cost is a reasonable estimate for what those extra costs might be.
• Home repair: If you rent, these estimates may not apply. However, if you are or have aspirations of someday being a homeowner, the low estimate for an emergency home repair is from Angi's 2023 State of Home Spending report. The "average" estimate is provided from a 2022 survey conducted by Ipsos. The high estimate is from Thumbtack's 2023 estimate of the average annual cost of home maintenance and repairs.

A lot of these estimates are taken from the annual costs of "typical" maintenance and repair procedures. Since many of these unexpected events won't happen each year, you could aim at saving the "low" end estimates each year as your regular emergency savings plan or more if your income allows it, and build it up over time to where you can handle bigger emergencies. As for how much you might need to have altogether in any designated emergency savings you have, that's a different question for a different day.

Image credit: Car accident by shuets udono on Flickr. Creative Commons CC by-SA 2.0 Attribution-Sharealike 2.0 Generic Deed.