When we last covered the state of the global economy, we found it had just begun rebounding after having entered a double-dip recession. Deeply impacted regions like North America and the Eurozone were showing signs of recovery, boosted by the arrival of COVID vaccines.

Two months ago, that recovery could be measured by the increasing rate at which carbon dioxide was being added to the Earth's atmosphere. Two months later we find that sign of improvement has reversed, indicating the global economy is experiencing a triple dip recession.

What happened to reverse the global economic recovery?

From the end of March 2021 through May 2021, the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head in India and several nations in South America, including Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia.

Of these countries, India suffered the most extreme spread of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in the period from March through May 2021, the severity of which hammered its economy. And by extension, the global economy because India has become the fifth largest national economy in the world.

Data for the changing concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere indicates that negative impact on India's economy was very large. It more than fully offset the rate at which CO2 is being added to the Earth's air resulting by the other regions of the world whose economic recoveries are well underway.

References

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Daily Confirmed New Cases (7-Day Moving Average) Outbreak Evolution for the Current Most Affected Countries. [Online Database]. Accessed 19 June 2021.

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Text File]. Updated 6 April 2020. Accessed 19 June 2021.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our series quantifying the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Earth's economy, presented in reverse chronological order.

• Coronavirus Pandemic Sends Global Economy Into Triple Dip Recession
• Double Dip Global Coronavirus Recession Sees Second Bottom
• Net Global GDP Lost to Coronavirus Pandemic Tops $13.6 Trillion
• Global Double Dip Coronavirus Recession Deepens
• Global Economy Enters Double Dip Coronavirus Recession
• Global Economy Teeters on Double Dip Recession
• World GDP Lost Due to Coronavirus Reaches $12 Trillion
• Cumulative World GDP Loss From Coronavirus Pandemic Tops $11 Trillion
• Estimates of World GDP Lost to the Global Coronavirus Recession
• Finding Human Fingerprints in Atmospheric CO2
• The Coronavirus and Atmospheric CO2 in April 2020
• The Coronavirus, Atmospheric CO2, and GDP

Back on 18 November 2020, we described the stock of document storage giant Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) as a "COVID-19 play, or rather, a bet on the future for the coronavirus pandemic's real world impact on business activities".

By that, we recognized that the future for IRM's stock price would very much depend on the extent to which the global economy recovered from the coronavirus pandemic and Europe's economy in particular, since Iron Mountain was actively expanding its business in that region. We're following up that observation today, comparing how the stock price of IRM compares with the benchmark of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). The following chart shows that comparison over the seven months from 18 November 2020 to 18 June 2021:

Nice to see the bet played out well. As for our coverage, unless we find Iron Mountain back in the kind of circumstances that originally drew our attention to it, we're closing out our short series on future prospects of the company's stock price today.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here are the two previous posts where we've discussed the prospects for Iron Mountain's stock price, presented below in chronological order:

• Goldilocks, Market Cap, and Aggregate Dividends
• Iron Mountain's Stock Becomes a COVID-19 Economic Recovery Bet
• Iron Mountain as a Successful Bet on the COVID-19 Economic Recovery

We had two big Federal Reserve driven events during the third week of June 2021. The first was the Fed's two-day meeting ending on 16 June 2021, when the Fed officially responded to increased expectations of inflation by moving up the projected timing for increasing U.S. short term interest rates.

The second event came on 18 June 2021, when influential Federal Reserve minion James Bullard indicated he saw the Fed having to act to hike rates even earlier, which led investors to suddenly shift their forward-looking attention to the upcoming 2021-Q3 in a new Lévy flight event.

The first Fed-related event played out as a change in the value of the amplification factor built into the dividend futures-based model we use to project the future potential trajectories of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), where we showing that value as set at -2.5 from Wednesday, 16 June 2021. The second change shows the characteristic quantum-like shift to the trajectory associated with investors focusing on the future quarter of 2021-Q3 on Friday, 18 June 2021.

Those were the big events of the week that was, but there were other market-moving headlines for investors to absorb as well. Here's our summary of those items:

Monday, 14 June 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil steadies after hitting 2-yr high as demand hopes face supply growth
• U.S. consumers expect near-term boost in inflation, labor market, NY Fed survey finds
• Fed minions still sending taper smoke signals despite pre-FOMC meeting blackout :
• Fed tiptoes towards the taper stage months before the curtain call
• ECB minions to keep up stimulus bond buys despite strengthening economy, Eurozone investors counting on it:
• Euro zone at a turning point but too early to debate end of ECB help: Lagarde
• Euro zone production stronger than expected in April
• Economic recovery hopes power European shares to record high
• S&P 500, Nasdaq set record closing highs as Fed meeting looms

Tuesday, 15 June 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. manufacturing output accelerates in May on autos
• U.S. retail sales take step back as spending pivots to services, trend remains strong
• U.S. business inventories fall in April; sales rise
• U.S. homebuilder confidence falls to 10-month low in June
• Sales of U.S. vacation homes rose twice as fast as other homes last year -study
• Analysts identify issues Fed minions will weigh from now through 2021-Q3:
• Fed walks tightrope between big jobs gap and rising inflation
• Analysis: Transitory or here-to-stay? Investors try to read the inflation clues
• Less big trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan to avoid recession, but Q2 growth forecasts cut sharply: Reuters poll
• Former BOJ minion wants BOJ to think about stopping stock fund buys:
• After tapering, BOJ must weigh exit from ETF holdings: former central banker Sakurai
• Wall Street slips as Fed mulls policy, economic data disappoints

Wednesday, 16 June 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Fannie Mae cuts U.S. home sales forecast, points to supply constraints
• Exorbitant lumber, scarce materials hampering U.S. homebuilding
• U.S. import prices accelerate in May; export prices surge
• Oil settles near $75, at multi-year highs
• Fed minions do nothing now, indicate they'll start hiking U.S. interest rates in 2023:
• Fed signals rate hikes for 2023, start of bond-buying taper talks
• Powell Pummels Bonds & Bullion, Saves Stocks With "Grain Of Salt"
• Bigger inflation developing all over:
• Roaring inflation compounds Cubans' economic woes
• UK inflation hits 2.1%, vaults past Bank of England target
• Big trouble developing in China:
• China's factory output, retail sales miss expectations in May
• BOJ minions warned they are at the end of the road for negative rate policies:
• Japan's bank lobby urges BOJ caution on deepening negative rates
• Wall Street drops as Fed officials mull U.S. rate hikes in 2023

Thursday, 17 June 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. leading indicator points to further economic recovery in May
• Oil tumbles 3% from multi-year highs on stronger dollar
• Fed is about to shift gears, but this time it may be different
• Analysis: Economists eye surging money supply as inflation fears mount
• BOJ, ECB minions thinking about stopping stimulus, but not anytime soon:
• BOJ may extend pandemic-relief scheme, keep stimulus intact
• BOJ may start debate on retreat from stimulus in 2023, says ex-central bank policymaker
• ECB's Lane says early to discuss end of emergency bond buys: Bloomberg TV
• ECB should not extend stimulus flexibility to older tools: Weidmann
• Nasdaq closes up on tech stocks strength, as hawkish Fed limits S&P
• Analysis-As Fed taper inches closer, investors prepare for volatility ahead

Friday, 18 June 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil gains on OPEC outlook that U.S. output growth will slow
• Fed minions send split message, one roils Wall Street:
• Fed funds effective rate now highest since August 2020
• Fed's Bullard looks to a bond-buying taper not on 'automatic pilot'
• Hawkish Bullard comments roil Wall Street, indexes drop
• Exclusive: Fed's Kashkari opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023
• Bigger inflation developing all over:
• Japan's core consumer prices rise for first time in over a year
• ECB minions to continue propping up Eurozone banks, will hang out in Frankfurt hotel to talk policy:
• ECB extends capital relief for banks as pandemic continues
• ECB strategy review meet: five things to watch
• Dow, S&P post worst week in months after hawkish Fed spooks investors

Barry Ritholtz' weekly succinct summary of the pluses and minuses he finds in the markets and economy news appears to be on summer hiatus. If you're interested in a substitute news source, we'll recommend Reuters Business News Headlines as a wide-ranging source.

We think the Fed's actions will have investors mostly focused on what will happen at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting near the end of 2021-Q3 throughout the quarter. As we're coming up on another period where the past volatility of the historic stock prices affects the accuracy of the dividend futures-based model's future projections, we have adapted the corresponding redzone forecast in the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart to represent where the S&P 500 is likely to range as investors mostly focus their attention on 2021-Q3.

Inventions in Everything often features unusual inventions, but today we're featuring an innovation that has become so commonplace, our modern world would not exist without it.

That invention is defined in U.S. Patent 2,150,821, which was issued to George Dempster on 14 March 1939, which you may recognize immediately by its patent title, the Transporting and Dumping Vehicle. Here's Figure 1 from the patent illustrating the basic invention:

Don't recognize it yet? Perhaps the description of the invention will provide more clues about Dempster's innovation:

This invention relates to transporting and dumping vehicles provided with a container for the load to be transported. In many cases it is desirable to supply a number of containers to the end that while one container is being transported to the point of delivery, others may be filled and ready for transportation when the carrying vehicle returns. With this end in view, it is common in the art to mount on a vehicle, such as a truck, a track, or way provided with suitable means for raising and lowering the container down and releasing it from transporting means at the point where is to be loaded....

One of the objects of the present invention is to prvoide a transporting vehicle of the usual or any suitable type, and supply the same with a container which can be readily loaded at a decreased expense, in time and labor, and which can be readily dumped by the operator of the vehicle, the container being automatically returned to transporting position after the dumping operation.

The invention went on to become so successful that all such containers are known by the name that Dempster trademarked for his invention, which he branded as Dempster's "Dumpster", a portmanteau of his name and the function of his invention.

Meanwhile, George Dempster had quite a legacy:

George Dempster's 1964 obituary described him as one of Knoxville's "most controversial figures" who, in addition to hitting a "financial jack-pot" with his most famous invention, also served as mayor.

The Henley Bridge, sewer disposal system and certain city parks all owe thanks to George Dempster, the obituary said.

George Dempster was nearly 50 years old in 1935 when he came up with the Dempster Dumpster concept while working alongside his brothers for their very own construction company. The company built highways, railroads and water supply dams across the southeast, according to writings from Dempster in the Knox News archives.

The dumpster was designed to be used in rock quarries and in road construction. It wasn't until later on that the Dempster brothers realized it also could be used for trash.

Construction competitors took notice of the receptacles, even asking George Dempster to create similar devices for their jobs, according to the writings.

That's where most people encounter George Dempster's invention today, where versions the scene shown in the following short video of Dempster's concept in action plays out thousands of times a day all around the world:

For inventors, the ultimate success occurs when the branded name of their product becomes the generic name for similar products. For the Dumpster, that happened in 2014 when the trademark for his invention expired. When that happened, what had been the Dumpster simply became the dumpster, the everyday name for a thing that no longer needs to be capitalized according to U.S. copyright law.

If only all inventions were so successful enough for their names to become part of human language.

U.S. teens are leading the coronavirus pandemic recession job recovery. But why?

Conor Sen runs through a number of contributing factors that have led to this remarkable outcome:

What makes teenage employment useful to study right now is that teenagers are less affected by the factors holding back labor supply than any other demographic. If they lived at home with their parents, they weren’t eligible for economic impact payments. If they were full-time students, they’d be ineligible for unemployment insurance, making enhanced benefits a nonfactor. They’re unlikely to be parents squeezed out of the labor force by closed schools or a lack of child care. They’re obviously not older workers who may have accelerated retirement plans during the pandemic. And teens were less likely to get seriously ill from Covid-19, and so perhaps less likely to avoid working for health-related reasons.

Barry Ritholtz offers a competing theory:

In 2007, before the great financial crisis, the national minimum wage level was a paltry $5.15. This was not all that long ago. For a teenager with even the most modest withholding / FICA, their take-home is so small it’s not worth it to work. You can see that in the trends over the preceding decades. By most measures — productivity, profitability, inflation, exec comp — the minimum wage has lagged badly. Teens did the math, and said WTF, why bother?

But the minimum wage began to rise during the financial crisis despite skyrocketing unemployment. It was raised in 2008, and then in 2009, and again in 2010. Post GFC, it’s been $7.25 an hour.

Not coincidentally, at exactly that time, the labor participation rate of teenagers began trending upwards. Today, it’s even higher than it was before the pandemic began. Maybe it’s boredom, perhaps some teens just want out of the house where they’ve been stuck with mom and dad and their siblings during the past year.

Or just maybe, local employers are raising wages sufficiently to make summer jobs attractive to teens.

That is an interesting hypothesis and one we can easily investigate. Starting with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 report on the characteristics of minimum wage workers, which reports that 1,112,000 Americans earned the federal minimum wage or less in 2020. Of these, 222,000 were teens from Ages 16 through 19. Teens therefore accounted for nearly one in five minimum wage workers, the second largest group by age in the U.S.

The largest age group for minimum wage workers is young adults, Age 20 through 24. In 2020, they accounted for 307,000 minimum wage workers, or nearly 28% of the total. Together, teens and young adults represent just under 48% of all those earning the U.S. federal minimum wage or less.

If the hypothesis that local employers offering higher-than-federal minimum wage is what is drawing teens into the U.S. labor force holds, it stands to reason that young adults would be likewise motivated to enter or re-enter the job market for the exact same reason, since they make up a larger share of minimum wage workers. That would be especially true during the last several months when employers have responded to a shortage of labor by boosting wages.

The following chart reveals what happened during that time for both teens (Age 16-19) and young adults (Age 20-24). For good measure, we're showing the data from January 2007 through May 2021 to capture Barry's period of interest, which confirms the data for both groups generally follow the same patterns, but we'll be focusing on more recent months in our analysis.

The employment-to-population ratio of teens and young adults peaked in February 2020, just ahead of the arrival of the coronavirus recession in the United States. The percentage of employed for both groups plunged before bottoming in April 2020, after which both saw a steady recovery through October 2020. The onset of the second wave of coronavirus infections through the end of 2020 saw that recovery stall, with overall employment-to-population ratios holding relatively steady during this period.

The data for both groups begins to diverge after January 2020, with the employed share of young adults holding steady while the employed share of teens has risen. Since this period coincides with increased demand for labor and rising wages, the absence of an increase in the share of young adults becoming employed in this period means we can reject the hypothesis that teens only sought jobs when entry level wages rose higher than the federal minimum wage.

As for what has led to this situation, we're afraid that employment data is subject to an abundance of confounding factors, which makes determining which factors are significant difficult to untangle. We think Conor Sen's analysis pointing to teens' ineligiblity for pandemic unemployment benefits deserves greater consideration, especially since teens and young adults aren't very different from one another with respect to the other factors he mentions.

We would also suggest investigating to what extent employers desperate to fill jobs may have lowered their standards for new hires. If we're talking about standards that favored previous experience, training, or education in hiring, then we may have a good candidate for explaining why teens and not young adults are leading the job recovery in 2021.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Employed persons and employment-population ratios by age. [Online Database]. Accessed 14 June 2021.