The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends dimmed since previous snapshot of their future. For all five quarters in our forecast window, all showed decreases though of varying amounts.

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share has changed in the past month for the current quarter of 2026-Q1, the remaining three quarters of 2026, and the first quarter of 2027:

• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.25, falling to $21.46 per share
• 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.08, dipping to $19.62 per share
• 2026-Q3: Decrease of $0.05, ticking down to $20.28 per share
• 2026-Q4: Decrease of $0.30, dropping to $20.12 per share
• 2027-Q1: Decrease of $0.40, declining to $21.20 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 February 2026 to 13 March 2026.

In the next edition of this series, we'll show 2026-Q1 as finalized and will add 2027-Q2 to the outlook. If the outlook for dividends continues to dim, we'll have to drag out our old thesaurus to find new expressions to describe the negative changes since we blew through all the ones we keep on ready standby for this edition.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end later this week, on Friday, 20 March 2026. The upcoming quarter of 2026-Q2 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and end on Friday, 19 June 2026.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) dropped another 1.6% during the second trading week of March 2026, closing at 6,632.19 on Friday, 13 March 2026. The index is five percent below its 27 January 2026 record high of 6,978.59.

Stock prices continued falling during this week as oil prices surged over $100 per barrel because of the Islamic Republic of Iran's efforts to close the Hormuz Strait in response to U.S. and Israeli military action against its government.

The surge in oil prices has raised the spectre of higher inflation, which in turn has made more Federal Reserve rate cuts, which had been widely expected, much less likely. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will delay an expected quarter point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate steady until 16 September (2026-Q3), twelve weeks later than what was anticipated a week earlier. The tool does not anticipate any other interest rate changes in 2026.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the trajectory of the S&P 500 following along near the bottom of the redzone forecast range during most of the week and dropping slightly below it on Thursday and Friday.

For analytical purposes, we can use the middle of the redzone forecast range to reasonably represent what path the S&P 500 would have taken if not for the impact of the Iran war. At this writing, the index would be around four percent higher than it is two weeks after the beginning of the geopolitical event.

Speaking of which, you can see some of the ebb and flow of it in the market-moving headlines of the week that was.

Monday, 9 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil’s wild ride: Crude drops 10% after 30% surge as Trump signals conflict may end
• Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt
• Oil output, exports knocked by Iran conflict as prices surge
• Fed minions may be thinking about hiking U.S. interest rates because of oil price shock:
• Iran war fuels central bank rate hike bets on inflation fears
• Iran conflict forces Asian central banks into sharp policy rethink
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China makes biggest retail fuel price cap increase in four years amid Iran war
• China consumer inflation hits three-year high on holiday surge
• BOJ minions get wage hike inflation they've tried to create, will use to justify more rate hikes:
• Japan real wages grow for first time in 13 months, boosting BOJ hike case
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Europe's struggling retail sector looks ill-prepared for new energy price shock
• Wall St ends higher as hopes of Iran war resolution offset inflation fears
• Shares skid as oil surge threatens inflation shock
• Oil soars 25%, gold drops as Iran war jolts global commodity markets
• Iran war boosts oil price, but oil major shares are stuck on the sidelines

Tuesday, 10 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices dive as Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon’
• US existing home sales unexpectedly increase as mortgage rates decline
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China pins hopes on society-wide AI push to add jobs, rejuvenate economy
• China’s exports turbocharge into 2026 after record-breaking year
• BOJ minions getting direction from Japan's new prime minister:
• Japan's Takaichi faces fresh scrutiny over BOJ policy stance
• Japan considering steps to cushion economy from Iran conflict, PM Takaichi says
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions planning to keep standing by:
• German exports record sharpest decline since May 2024
• ECB in no rush even if Iran war could alter outlook: policymakers
• Wall Street finished little changed as oil dropped and Middle East tensions stay in focus
• Wall St closes mixed on ramped-up Middle East tensions

Wednesday, 11 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices fall as WSJ says IEA proposes largest oil stock release ever
• US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserve
• US gasoline prices surpass $3.50 a gallon at the pumps as Iran war rages on
• Headline CPI holds at +2.4% Y/Y in February, as expected, still above Fed target
• US consumer prices rose 0.3% in February as cost of gasoline increased
• US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years (Before Iran-Triggered Oil Spike)
• Campbell's cuts annual forecasts as demand for pretzels, chips softens
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's February auto sales slide due to holidays; Iran war casts pall over exports
• China lifts military budget to modernize weapons, defence technology
• BOJ minions see cooling inflation, will hike Japan's interest rates no matter what:
• Japan's wholesale inflation cools, but oil shock from Iran war threatens rebound
• BOJ to raise interest rates next quarter with expectations unchanged by Middle East war
• ECB minions thinking about maybe hiking Eurozone interest rates if inflation shows up:
• ECB policymakers acknowledge war risk, promise to keep inflation in check
• Exclusive: ECB will react if Iran war pushes up inflation, Nagel says
• Nasdaq inches up, Dow slides as oil prices rise again, retail inflation comes in-line
• S&P 500, Dow end lower as escalating Iran war sours risk appetite

Thursday, 12 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says
• Oil jumps 5% as Iran escalates attacks on Gulf shipping
• Brent oil closes at $100 after Iran’s new supreme leader says Strait of Hormuz must remain closed
• US launches unfair-trade probes to rebuild Trump's tariff pressure
• US trade deficit narrows in January as exports jump to record high
• Fed minions still expected to cut U.S. interest rates in June 2026, thinking about making bank capital requirements less restrictive:
• Fed to cut rates in June, economists still say, despite war inflation risks
• Wall Street brokerages expect Fed rate cuts in mid 2026; Goldman shifts to September
• US Fed's Bowman unveils relaxed bank capital rules
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates again:
• Iran war may embolden BOJ's hawkish push, despite growth risks
• ECB minions say they can manage surge in oil prices better than they did four years ago:
• Iran oil shock prompts ECB hawks to seek 2021/22 rematch
• ECB's Schnabel warns of scars from post-pandemic inflation spike
• EU urges US to view it as ally in tackling overcapacity, not source of problem
• U.S. stocks sink as war against Iran intensifies, Brent settles above $100/bbl
• Wall St ends sharply lower as intensifying Iran war, soaring crude prompt selloff

Friday, 13 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7%
• VIEW PCE inflation report meets expectations, GDP is soft; markets rally
• Recession odds climb as Middle East conflict escalates, according to prediction markets
• US opens new unfair trade practices probes of 60 countries over forced labor
• Trump orders agencies to cut red tape on homebuilding, mortgages
• Fed minions expected to push off next rate cuts:
• Traders bet on Fed rate cut by September
• Bigger trouble, less stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese new loans slump more than expected as weak demand persists
• China February new loans drop to 900 billion yuan, miss forecasts
• China to tighten oversight of local government subsidies
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions expected to leave Eurozone interest rates alone:
• Euro zone industry takes a hit even before high energy costs bite
• Inflation threats heat up but ECB to keep rates on ice this year, say economists
• Wall Street ended lower as investors assessed PCE inflation and GDP data
• Wall Street closes lower, posts weekly loss as war on Iran fuels inflation worries

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 jumped to +2.7%, rebounding from the +2.1% growth anticipated a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a suit-wearing Wall Street bull and bear who react to a news ticker that says 'IRAN WAR' and 'OIL PRICE SPIKE' and 'RATE CUTS DELAYED' by screaming".

When the price of fuel soars, drivers who seek to avoid spending money on petroleum have two options. They can:

• Drive less, or
• Slow down.

For many, driving less is an obvious solution, but one that isn't necessarily achievable. That's comes down to why people have cars in the first place. They need them to travel to and from work and also to and from where they buy the goods and services they need.

In today's world, whether they drive a gas-powered, battery-powered or hybrid vehicle, some non-zero percentage of the fuel or energy needed to enable their ride will be produced by fossil fuels. When the price of oil and other fossil fuels rise, the cost of essential commuting goes up as well. But you can limit your exposure to those higher costs by slowing down to drive your vehicle at speeds where it is more efficient.

That fact was established by a nearly three-decade old study by the U.S. Department of Energy that found that most gasoline-powered vehicles in the U.S. are operated at speeds at which they do achieve their peak level of fuel efficiency. At highway speeds, for instance, the forces of aerodynamic drag can substantially increase the amount of fuel an automobile engine has to burn in order to sustain a high velocity. A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation reveals that the amount of drag force that a car being driven at 75 miles per hour sees is some 33% higher than the same car being driven at 65 miles per hour would see.

Though today's roads have more electric and hybrid vehicles driving upon them, they are still affected by the same laws of aerodynamics. Like gas-powered vehicles, it takes less energy to sustain them moving at lower speeds, which means their batteries can hold their charges for longer.

But not too slow. Driving too slow also comes not just with a time penalty but also an increased penalty for fuel consumption. Most modern vehicles are designed to operate most efficiently at speeds ranging from 30 to 55 miles per hour. That's the sweet spot in which you can get the most distance driving out for your fuel consumption dollar.

We've tapped that old study to reverse-engineer the Fuel Economy vs Speed average vehicle profile developed by the U.S. Department of Energy and create the following tool, in which you can find out who much money you might save by going slower. If you're accessing this tool on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version of the tool.

The cool thing about this tool is that you now have more weapons in your arsenal to help fend off the effects of higher gasoline prices! Armed with this information, you can now make whatever trade-offs you might need to your greatest advantage. For example, if getting the greatest possible savings is most important to you, you'll want to drive at speeds that produce the lowest equivalent cost per gallon of gas compared to your normal driving speeds. If you want to save gas money and time, you'll want to drive at speeds that give you the greatest equivalent "tax free" income compared to how you drive today.

Image credit: Lighted Automotive RPM, Temperature, Fuel, and Speedometer Gauges photo by Kevin kevin on Unsplash.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) has reverted back to its mean.

We can say that because the S&P 500 has experienced a relatively stable period of order since the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. We know that's the case because the variation of stock prices with respect to the mean trend curve established from the relationship between stock prices and their trailing year dividends per share can be generally described by a normal distribution.

That in itself is remarkable because stock prices are very much not normal, even when they behave in an orderly manner. When you map their variation onto a chart with zones that align with significant reference points for a normal bell curve from statistics, you'll find both too many points within one standard deviation of the mean and too many points outside the zones where they would be expected to be found 99.8% of the time if that variation was really normally distributed.

But that doesn't mean we can't use the tools built for doing statistical analysis to track an index like the S&P 500 when such a period of order exists in the stock market. The following chart deploys those tools and finds that as of the close of trading on 11 March 2026, the level of the S&P 500 is just a short distance from its central mean trendline. Which is to say the level of the S&P 500 has finally returned to its established mean after having run above it since early September 2025.

This is an almost textbook example of what "reverting to the mean" really means where stock prices are concerned.

But in case you're wondering what it means when stock prices move outside the outer limits described by this kind of analysis, where order really does break down (as opposed to simply being the result of statistical outliers in a continuing trend like what happened back in April 2025), the ultimate textbook example involves the ultimate sell signal.

Evidence has emerged to support our hypothesis that more robust immigration enforcement is a significant contributing factor to the increase in median household income in the U.S. since mid-2025.

Updated monthly population estimates were released last month, with the revisions covering the period from March 2020 through November 2025. From March 2020 through June 2021, most estimates were revised upward by very small amounts, but for each month from July 2021 onward, all estimates were revised downward. The magnitude of revisions start out very small, but increase in magnitude as the revisions draw closer the present.

The negative revisions show three notable shifts as they increase in magnitude. The first shift took place after June 2024 as the cumulative size of the negative revisions grew larger than 100,000. The second shift took place in February 2025 as the cumulative negative revisions surpassed 200,000. The third shift clocks from July 2025 with the size of the negative revisions growing from month to month.

The following chart visualizes the "before" and "after" population data for the period from January 2021 through November 2025 and with the newly reported population estimate for December 2025.

The three shifts follow notable political events that would have a potential outsized effect on U.S. immigration. The first shift took place after President Joseph Biden's disastrous debate with then presidential candidate Donald Trump on 28 June 2024, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race several weeks later. This event cemented Donald Trump as the likely next U.S. President and since he campaigned strongly against the unrestricted immigration policies of the Biden administration, it would be reasonable for that event to have a small negative effect on immigrant flows into the U.S.

The second shift came after President Donald Trump was sworn into office on 20 January 2026 and began implementing his immigration control agenda. That change saw the negative revisions jump in the early months of the new Trump administration, which slowed going into summer.

The third shift starting from July 2025 is the most notable one and coincides with the period in which the Trump administration introduced its program to incentivize unlawful immigrants to self-deport from the U.S. with a cash payment and free travel to their home countries. This is the immigration-related policy we think had the biggest effect on median household income because it would be especially attractive to immigrants with very low incomes. The removal of large numbers of this portion of the work force would automatically lead to an increase in median household income with the increasing departures of the lowest income earners, which itself tracks from July 2025 onward.

Comparing November 2025's population estimate from the pre-revision level of 343,078,000 to the post-revision level of 342,439,000 underscores the magnitude of the revision as the estimated resident population of the U.S. dropped by 639,000. At the same time, since the previous population estimates were based on a model of population growth that was established during the Biden administration, it works as a counterfactual, or rather, a reasonable estimate of what the U.S. population would have been if not for the significant political events that altered both it and the nation's median household income.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. 20 February 2026.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A picture illustrating the concept of a revision to U.S. Census population estimates". We're amazed at how well the result came out, which is remarkable considering how short the prompt was.