We're posting this super early in the morning to help get you off to a strong start in solving a problem you already have. That problem? What to do with the leftovers now crowding your refrigerator from yesterday's Thanksgiving dinner!

Sam the Cooking Guy has a solution for what to do with your leftover stuffing: use it in your breakfast omelette! We've queued up the following video to get you going. Just a quick note before you start watching - he does a commercial for SimpliSafe's home security system during it, so when you get to it at about the 4:47 mark, you can skip past nearly all of it by advancing the video to the 6:06 mark:

Here's the quick list of ingredients in the order they're added to the non-stick skillet (at low heat):

• Salted butter
• Leftover stuffing
• Eggs (he uses three eggs beaten with salt and pepper)
• Cheese (he uses two slices of American singles)

And that's pretty much it. If you want help with the rest of your leftovers, we have some options listed below from previous Thanksgivings....

• The Remains of the Bird
• Money Making Ideas for Thanksgiving Leftovers
• Thanksgiving 2011: What to Do with the Leftovers?
• The Turkey Day Hangover

For as long as we've celebrated Thanksgiving at Political Calculations, we've never once provided any information for doing the one thing most Americans' Thanksgiving dinners depend upon. Cooking a turkey.

Sure, we've featured information on how to carve a turkey. We've twice featured information on how to avoid hurting yourself and others when cooking a turkey. And we've featured the Swedish Chef cooking a turkey, although to be fair, no turkey was actually cooked during that production.

So we're going to rectify that situation today by featuring two videos that will take you through the process of cooking a turkey! But before we begin, let's just say that if your turkey is still frozen rock solid, you should skip the videos and find out what restaurants might be open near you instead....

Our first featured video will take you through the basics of what you need to know about the full process of cooking a turkey in about 12 and a half minutes. Please be aware the process in real life takes much longer....

Our second video runs a little over eight minutes and features much of the same information, but is aimed for a slightly different audience. An audience that's somewhat intimidated by not just cooking a turkey, but being judged for how well they might cook it.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and good luck with your turkey this year!

P.S. We're not done with cooking tips, so check back in tomorrow for an idea of what to do with your Thanksgiving dinner leftovers!

In 2020, the average live weight of a turkey raised on a U.S. farm was nearly unchanged from 2019's final recorded average of 32.7 pounds per bird. That stagnation ended what had been a 40 year long trend of growth in the average size of turkeys produced on U.S. farms.

In the chart above, we've shown that new trend of stagnation continuing based on early signs that production factors such as the rising costs of feed, fuel, and labor for producing turkeys in the U.S. will affect the growth of the average turkey much the same as it did during the inflationary 1970s. Should the finalized data for 2021 confirm that's the case when it is released next year, it will indicate U.S. turkey producers are dealing with today's inflation similarly to how they did during that period of relative stagnation for the U.S. economy.

References

U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service. Livestock Historic Data. [Online Database: Survey - Animals & Products - Poultry - Turkeys - Production - Turkeys Production Measured in Head - Total - National - US Total - 1929-2021 - Annual - Year]. Accessed 14 November 2021.

U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service. Livestock Historic Data. [Online Database: Survey - Animals & Products - Poultry - Turkeys - Production - Turkeys Production Measured in LB - Total - National - US Total - 1929-2021 - Annual - Year]. Accessed 14 November 2021.

An estimated 214 million turkeys were raised on U.S. farms in 2021, down 4.5% from 2020's 224 million. That decline continues an ongoing downward trend that has now lasted for 25 years.

2021 saw the fewest number of turkeys produced on U.S. farms since 1986. Turkey production had soared during the late 1980s and early 1990s thanks to that era's low-fat diet craze, which saw a sharp increase in demand for lean turkey meat.

On a side note, we now have turkey production data going back to 1929!

References

U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service. Livestock Historic Data. [Online Database: Survey - Animals & Products - Poultry - Turkeys - Production - Turkeys Production Measured in Head - Total - National - US Total - 1929-2021 - Annual - Year]. Accessed 14 November 2021.

The cost of providing a traditional Thanksgiving turkey dinner to 10 people in 2021 is 14% higher than a year ago. The same food that cost $46.90 in 2020 now costs $53.31.

That's according to the results of the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey of the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner were released one week before Thanksgiving 2021. In the following chart, we've visualized the Farm Bureau's year-over-year comparison of the costs of the food in their traditional Thanksgiving turkey dinner shopping list.

In the chart, we've ranked the cost of the individual items and groupings used by the Farm Bureau for their traditional turkey dinner menu from high to low according to their 2021 cost as you read from left to right. We've also tallied the cumulative cost of the meal, with the totals for each shown on the far right side of the chart.

Ranking the data this way lets us see that the increase in the cost of turkey is responsible for most of the year-over-year increase. Rising by $4.60 from 2020's $19.39 to 2021's $23.99 for a 16-pound bird, turkey alone accounts for nearly 72% of the year-over-year increase in the total cost for the meal.

Why are turkeys so much more costly in 2021? Here's a partial explanation:

Last Friday, the USDA's Turkey Market News Report showed that smaller 8- to 16-pound frozen turkeys were selling for $1.41 per pound, up from $1.15 the year before, a 22 percent increase. Large frozen turkeys were selling for a couple cents less. Meanwhile, fresh small birds were more expensive — $1.47 per pound — though the year-over-year increase was less, only 15 cents. Exacerbating the issue is that the total number of turkeys for 2021 is also down: six percent lower year-to-date in 2021 than in 2020.

Justin Benavidez, assistant professor of agricultural economics with Texas A&M's AgriLife, told the nearby KRHD News that this decreased production was the primary cause of the price increase. "This is actually one of those rare situations where the pandemic didn't have much to do with the supply and demand of turkey," he was quoted as saying.

But Gregory Martin, a poultry educator with Penn State Extension, didn't entirely agree, instead pointing to larger inflation concerns. "Prices are going to go up simply because of the cost to get the birds in the store," he told Lancaster Farming.

We'll be looking closer at American turkeys all this week!

References

American Farm Bureau Federation. Farm Bureau: Survey Shows Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Up 14%. [Online Article]. 18 November 2021.

American Farm Bureau Federation. Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey: 2021 Year to Year Prices. [PDF Document]. 18 November 2021.

After being beaten back by rising inflation concerns, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rebounded to reach a new record high closing value of 4,704.54 on Thursday, 18 November 2021, but retreated below that level to end the week at 4,697.96.

From the perspective of the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart, the trajectory of the S&P 500 is riding just within the upper end of the redzone forecast range.

We suspect that investors are refocusing their forward-looking attention on 2022-Q2 since the Federal Reserve is now expected to initiate a new round of Federal Funds Rate hikes to address the persistent inflation that has developed since January 2021. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is anticipating two, maybe three rate hikes in 2022 for the Federal Funds Rate set by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The FedWatch Tool predicts a greater than 50% probability for at least two quarter point rate hikes, the first in June 2022 and the second in September 2022, but is now giving just under a 50% probability of a third quarter point rate hike in December 2022.

Here are the market moving headlines from the third week of November 2021:

Monday, 15 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles mixed on questions over crude supply, demand, strong dollar
• Biden, needing a boost, to sign $1 trillion infrastructure bill
• Most dovish Fed minion starting to expect 'transitory' inflation will linger:
• Fed's Kashkari expects higher inflation continuing over next few months
• Mixed economic signs in China:
• China industrial output, retail sales accelerate but property clouds outlook
• China property hit by rare convergence of demand, supply declines
• Bigger inflation developing in Japan:
• Japan's economy shrinks more than expected as supply shortages hit
• ECB minion really wants to keep emergency stimulus measures going, willing to disregard market messages:
• ECB's Lagarde keeps pushing back on rate hike bets and hopes
• Wall Street ends little changed as rising yields weigh on tech

Tuesday, 16 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. import prices surge in October on petroleum, food
• U.S. manufacturing output races to 2-1/2-year high
• Oil settles mixed on tight inventories, demand worries
• U.S. retail sales surge as Americans kick off holiday shopping, brighten economic outlook
• Fed minions beg for more time to act on inflation:
• Barkin says Fed needs 'a few more months' to see clear picture of inflation, labor market
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Analysis-China's real estate woes sap property investment products
• ECB minions may be creating a problem for the Euro:
• Analysis-Latest ECB rate-hike pushback turns euro into falling knife
• Retail boost helps lift S&P 500

Wednesday, 17 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. homebuilding drops, construction backlog surges as shortages worsen
• Inflation, monetary tightening could heighten systemic risks -U.S. Treasury research office
• Fed minions starting to think inflation may be a problem:
• Fed officials say high inflation weighing on consumers and needs to be controlled
• Fed's inflation debate heats up as Biden nears Fed chair pick
• Fed's Daly: next step for Fed is forward guidance
• NY Fed's Williams says Treasury market needs to be shored up for next big shock
• Bigger inflation developing in Eurozone, UK, Canada:
• Euro zone Oct inflation confirmed at 4.1% y/y on energy spike
• UK inflation leaps to 10-year high, bolstering rate hike bets
• Canada's annual inflation rate matches 18-year high, set to keep rising
• ECB minions thinking they may have to deal with a housing bubble in addition to inflation:
• ECB sees rising risk that housing bubble will burst
• ECB must be attentive and vigilant on inflation: de Guindos
• ECB must be ready to act if inflation proves more durable: Schnabel
• Wall Street down as retailers stoke inflation fears

Thursday, 18 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. economy regaining speed as unemployment claims fall; manufacturing surges
• Biden's $1.75 trillion bill is not fully paid for, Congressional Budget Office says
• Yellen insists $1.75 tln U.S. social, climate spending bill 'fully paid for'
• Oil hovers above six-week low as China readies crude reserve release
• Exclusive: China reserve bureau working on crude oil release
• Fed minions moving up plan to hike rates, one focused on other issues:
• Fed policymakers start penciling in earlier U.S. rate hikes
• Fed's Bostic: could start normalizing interest rates next summer
• Fed to hike in Q4 next year; inflation to remain above target until 2024: Reuters poll
• Fed's Daly says dependent care is essential to supporting work
• Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:
• Japan's stimulus package spending to hit record $488 billion - Nikkei
• ECB minion hoping inflation will go away:
• ECB's Lane still expects euro zone inflation to ease next year
• S&P, Nasdaq end at record peaks on strong earnings

Friday, 19 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. Thanksgiving dinner cost jumps with inflation on the menu, though deals remain
• Oil dives 3% to below $80/bbl on resurgent pandemic in Europe
• As Fed contemplates a move, Democratic states lag furthest in jobs recovery
• Fed minions starting to think they need to taper faster to stop inflation, maybe shouldn't coordinate policies with other central banks:
• As inflation surges, Fed to debate faster taper, earlier rate hikes
• Fed policymakers to debate a faster end to bond-buying
• Fed's Waller favors doubling speed of bond taper in January, be done by April
• Fed's Clarida: global central banks should not coordinate policy
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Europe lockdown rattles Wall Street, boosts safe-havens
• Central bank minions hiking rates to fight inflation, ECB minions expecting inflation:
• New Zealand central bank on a hiking spree as economic climate gets hotter
• ECB's Weidmann says inflation might stay above 2% for some time
• Weidmann contradicts ECB on easy policy ahead of December meeting
• Nasdaq closes above 16,000 for the first time; Dow down again
• Safe havens surge, oil sinks as investor seek COVID

We're shifting gears for the rest of the week with our annual week-long celebration of Thanksgiving, starting with a look at the inflation in the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving turkey dinner for 2021.