The United States' top export to China is soybeans.

However, with the U.S. and China engaged in a tariff war during most of 2025, soybean shipments plunged all the way to zero from June through October 2025. Following orders from the top of China's government, Chinese firms hadn't even bothered to place any orders to buy U.S. soybeans.

That changed on 30 October 2025. As part of the tariff war truce struck between the two nations, China's government negotiators agreed that Chinese state-controlled firms like Sinograin and COFCO would purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before the end of 2025. The agreement also specified China would buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans in each of the next three years.

China's purchases of 12 million metric tons worth of U.S. soybeans in 2025 was confirmed on 20 January 2026. But because China started placing orders so late, most of the crop they bought was nowhere close to where it could be quickly loaded on oceangoing ships to China. We suspect most of the soybeans bought by China in November and December 2025 were stored closer to where the crops are grown in the American Midwest. The following video shows how soybeans make their way to the Mississippi River, where they are loaded onto barges in the first stages of their export to other nations:

It takes time to transfer soybeans from siloes to trucks and then onto barges. It takes more time for the barges to sail down toward the port of New Orleans, where the soybeans are transferred from the barges to shipping containers and bulk cargo ships. It then takes even longer for the container-laden and bulk cargo ships to sail down to the Panama Canal and cross to the Pacific Ocean, where it then takes another few weeks to arrive at China's ports where they are unloaded.

In November 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau reports the U.S. exported just $21 million worth of soybeans to China. At that month's average spot price of $10.50 per bushel, that works out to be about 56,577 metric tons. In December 2025, the total value of soybeans exported from the U.S. to China jumped to $593.8 million, which at $10.40 per bushel, represents about 1.55 million metric tons of soybeans being shipped.

Altogether, U.S. export data has yet to account for roughly another 10.45 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans bought by China to be exported from the U.S. Assuming the same price of $10.40 per bushel as recorded for December 2025, that's about $4 billion worth of soybeans headed to China that hasn't yet been officially recorded in U.S. export data because it wasn't in place to depart from the U.S. before the end of the year.

As you can see in the following chart, the $593.8 million of soybean exports in December 2025 was enough to reverse a downtrend and start a small upward surge.

We anticipate that new surge will accelerate upward in January and February 2026 as the remaining 10.45 million metric tons of soybeans reaches their ports of exit and begins their long sea voyage to China. When it does, it will amp up U.S. GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2026, just as the absence of U.S. soybean exports in the fourth quarter of 2025 contributed to that quarter's lackluster recorded growth.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 19 February 2026.

For a holiday-shortened trading week, the third week of February 2026 was as jam-packed with news with market-moving potential as any we've ever seen. Yet the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed out the week ending Friday, 20 February 2026 at 6,909.51, up a little over one percent from its previous week's close. Coincidentally, that's about one percent below its record high recorded back on 27 January 2026.

That outcome came about because the week's biggest market-moving news headlines were mixed. Most of that news hit on Friday, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the law under which President Trump established his administration's global tariff program does not permit him to impose tariffs.

That was generally good news for many companies in the S&P 500, which do quite a lot of worldwide business, but was tempered by the Trump administration's announcement it would impose replacement tariffs of similar magnitude under other provisions of U.S. law, many of which have previously been tested in court.

Friday also saw a hot Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation number, which is a negative for markets because higher-than-expected inflation lowers the odds of interest rate cuts. While the CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued projecting the Fed will keep holding the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), it now gives a 59% probability of a quarter point rate cut happening then, down from the previous week.

Looking further forward, the tool gives a 73% probability that another next quarter point reduction will take place on 16 September (2026-Q3). No other interest rate changes are expected in 2026, which is perhaps the biggest change from the previous week.

Overall, stock prices rose from the previous seek, which is captured on the latest update of the alternative futures chart. We've added a new redzone forecast range to the chart to compensate for the echoes of past volatility caused by last year's DeepSeek AI shock event and President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement some two weeks later, which both generated a lot of volatility for stock prices.

We're assuming investors will remain focused on the upcoming future quarter of 2026-Q2 during this period, given the potential for the Fed's June 2026 rate cut to possibly slip into the third quarter. We've anchored the start of the redzone forecast range on the alternative futures chart's projection for 2026-Q2 on 19 February 2026, while the other end of the range will float with the expectations for the dividend futures-based model's projected 2026-Q2 trajectory on 28 May 2026, which roughly corresponds to when the shocks from the DeepSeek and Liberation Day noise events subsided.

Here are the other market-moving headlines from the week that was:

Tuesday, 17 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices slide 2% to two-week low on talk of progress in US-Iran talks
• 'Exports to China look dismal,' leader of busiest US seaport says
• Fed minions worry about inflation despite hitting the target at which they're really aiming, see rates coming down later in 2026:
• Fed's Daly says US central bank still needs to get inflation down
• Fed must dig deep on AI impact to make right rate calls ahead, Daly says
• Fed's Daly says businesses 'cautiously optimistic'
• Fed's Goolsbee: 'Several' rate cuts possible this year if inflation gets on track to 2%
• Fed's Barr says central bank likely on hold for some time as it watches for easing inflation
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• Winter economy emerges as poster child for China's stimulus tilt to services
• Growth signs developing in Japan:
• Japan exports jump, business mood improves as IMF warns of risks to growth
• ECB minions excited to expand their bailout business:
• ECB opens up euro lifeline in bid to boost global role
• Wall Street ended slightly higher as investors came back from holiday
• Wall Street ends down as AI worries slam tech stocks
• Big tech stocks lose billions as AI spending fears hit valuations

Wednesday, 18 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US manufacturing output posts biggest gain in 11 months in January
• Oil gains as traders weigh progress in Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran talks
• Big Food pours millions into rebrands as obesity drugs reshape US demand
• Fed minions want to see inflation fall below level they've been targeting before more rate cuts:
• Fed minutes: Lower inflation needed before many officials will support rate cuts
• Fed minutes downplay impact of Trump mortgage buying on housing affordability
• Fed minutes show officials grappling with policy split, impact of AI on economy
• BOJ, JapanGov minions to work closely together as government set to boost borrowing:
• Japan PM Takaichi hopes BOJ works closely with government to durably hit price goal
• Exclusive: Japan's debt issuance to surge 28% in fiscal 2029 from 2026, finance ministry estimates
• Chief ECB minion to quit sooner rather than later starting succession battle among other minions, while some are in the dark:
• ECB President Lagarde plans to quit before Macron's term ends, FT reports
• ECB succession talk puts Knot and De Cos in frame for top job
• ECB’s Cipollone has no indication President Lagarde plans early resignation
• Wall Street ended higher as tech stocks regained momentum
• Wall Street ends higher, lifted by Nvidia and other AI stocks

Thursday, 19 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices extend gains on concern over potential US-Iran conflict
• US crude and fuel stocks fall on stronger demand from refineries, consumers, EIA says
• Las Vegas sees sharp visitor drop as leisure spending wanes
• Fed minions claim their policy is "in a good place", object to criticism from White House officials:
• Fed policy is in a good place, Daly says
• Fed's Kashkari: Hassett comments about Fed researchers represent another attack on independence
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• How China plans to dominate global trade long after Trump
• BOJ minions next rate hike may have consequences:
• Japan may see upheaval of funds when BOJ hikes rates to 1%, economist says
• Chief ECB minion claims she isn't quitting early:
• Exclusive: ECB's Lagarde signals no imminent exit as politics and central banks collide
• Eurozone economy claimed to be negatively impacted by trade with China:
• German business lobby warns of unfair trade practices by China
• China shock: Will Merz take on Germany's top rival?
• Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip as oil prices continue rally amid Iran-US tensions
• Wall Street ended lower after Walmart earnings and further economic data arrived
• Walmart outlines 6% to 8% operating income growth for FY27 as automation and AI adoption accelerate
• Top of the world: Amazon outsells Walmart to become the largest company
• Wall Street ends down as Nvidia slides and private equity stocks sink
• Blue Owl shares slide again as latest capital-return plan unnerves some investors
• The S&P 500 is undergoing a historic shift that could reshape the stock market

Friday, 20 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Government shutdown dents US economic growth in fourth quarter; inflation heats up
• US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's global tariffs
• Trump unveils new 10% global tariff after 'deeply disappointing' SCOTUS ruling
• Trump’s new 10% global tariff to take effect on Feb. 24
• US new home sales fall in December; inventory declines
• White House proposes banning some investors from buying more homes, WSJ reports
• US PCE inflation heats up in December
• Fed minions keep claiming monetary policy is perfect, worry about GDP growth being too strong:
• Fed's Logan sees inflation easing, says rate policy 'well positioned' for risks
• Fed's Bostic: 'Pretty strong' GDP growth raises inflation concerns
• ECB minions excited for Eurozone to keep importing China's deflation, chief ECB minion claims she'll serve out full term:
• ECB's Panetta says Chinese imports helped drive sharper than forecast inflation drop
• Lagarde dampens ECB exit talk, says she expects to finish her term
• Wall Street finished higher as market participants assessed GDP and PCE data
• Wall Street ends higher after Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs
• AI-related stocks edge higher, led by networking, while CoreWeave drags hyperscalers down

The BEA's first estimate of real GDP growth for 2025-Q4 came in at +1.2%, which is quite a bit lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of +3.7% growth during that quarter, with the Senate Democrats' government shutdown fiasco accounting for most the difference. The GDPNow tool is now projecting real GDP growth for 2026-Q1 with an initial forecast of +3.1% growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is happy the U.S. Supreme Court struck down some tariffs as unconstitutional and a bear who is nervous about the new tariffs that will replace them".

The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends generally improved since previous snapshot of their future. For the five quarters in our forecast window, four showed solid gains, while one had a small decline.

Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share has changed in the past month for the current quarter of 2026-Q1, the remaining three quarters of 2026, and the first quarter of 2027:

• 2026-Q1: Increase of $0.21, rising to $21.71 per share
• 2026-Q2: Decrease of $0.03, dipping to $19.70 per share
• 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.24, rising to $20.33 per share
• 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.40, rising to $20.42 per share
• 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.27, rising to $21.60 per share

The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 January 2025 to 13 February 2026.

As a general rule, the further out the forecast, the more subject to change the dividends will be before they are finalized at the end of their indicated quarter. Be sure to read the following section providing more information about dividend futures data to get a better understanding of what this information represents.

More About Dividend Futures Data

For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q1 began on Saturday, 20 December 2025 and will end on Friday, 20 March 2026, one month from today.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

Or we did, up until this month. The man behind the data we've visualized for this feature, Standard and Poor's Howard Silverblatt, retired on 31 January 2026 after 48 years, 8 months, 14 days at S&P!

Benedek Vörös, S&P Dow Jones' Index Investment Strategy Director, marked the career milestone just before Howard's final day on the job:

This week has given the markets plenty to digest. But for many of us at S&P Dow Jones Indices, the most significant data point isn't on the tape. It’s on the calendar. Tomorrow marks the final day of Howard Silverblatt’s legendary 49-year tenure at our firm. For five decades, Howard’s definitive voice tracked the ebb and flow of the world’s most prominent index with a precision that turned financial math into a narrative art form. Whether he was breaking down S&P 500®, buyback yields for the Wall Street Journal or explaining the compounding power of dividends on CNBC, Howard taught a generation of investors that while price is what you pay, the underlying cash flow is what you get.

We hope S&P continues regularly publishing the data series Howard routinely made freely available at the S&P 500's official home on the internet. Including the earnings expectations we're featuring in this article.

Although we pulled the data on 13 February 2026 and referenced that date in the following chart, our Winter 2026 snapshot was really taken on 31 January 2026 and has been pulled from Howard's final Earnings & Estimates spreadsheet, which he posted on his last day on the job! The following chart presents how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through the end of January 2026:

The earnings outlook has substantially improved since our Fall 2025 snapshot. Earnings for the final quarter of 2025 are still being reported, but the S&P 500's trailing year earnings per share rose from $244.51 to $246.47 per share. Looking further forward, the index' forecast trailing year earnings per share through the end of 2026 saw robust improvements, rising from $281.78 to $294.00 as the outlook for earnings improved.

It's quite an impressive earnings outlook to go out on. Howard Silverblatt picked his exit date well!

At this writing, we don't know S&P's plans regarding whether it will continue publishing this data series or others that Howard maintained, such as S&P's monthly Divstat data that continued a long tradition of publishing the U.S. stock market's dividend metadata that extends back to January 1929, when a young firm then known as Standard Statistics began the practice and made it available to the Associated Press! We hope they do, because that's a big part of what made the firm that became Standard & Poor a trusted source of information conveying how the stock market is performing over the years.

For the last 49 years of its history, Howard Silverblatt tracked and presented the market data that sustained that hard-earned trust. He's left behind some very big shoes to fill.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 31 January 2026. Accessed 13 February 2026. Over the years, this spreadsheet captured a lot of Howard's personality, occasionally featuring photos or other observations that made it stand apart from the dry presentation of financial data that's common in the finance industry.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.

Five years ago, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on the surface of Mars. Unlike previous probes and rovers sent to the surface of the Red Planet, Perseverance had a unique potential. The rover was equipped with drilling tools to obtain rock samples from where it traveled within the Jezero Crater and stainless steel tubes in which to store them for transport back to Earth.

The following video depicts the rover's arrival to the surface of Mars on 18 February 2021:

It's the storage of the rock samples that makes the Perseverance rover's mission so unique, because it marks the first time true economic activity has taken place on Mars. The robot rover extracted raw materials, packaged them, then placed them into inventory for the purpose of facilitating their export to Earth. This aspect of the rover's interplanetary trade mission represents the birth of the Martian economy.

As of 18 February 2026, the Perseverance rover has collected 28 rock samples, all stored in their packaging for transportation back to Earth. While most of those samples are still onboard the rover, ten of the samples have been deposited to the 'Three Forks' Sample Depot, where a future mission to Mars would be sent to collect and transport them to Earth.

Except that's not going to happen anytime soon. The original planners behind the Mars Sample Return mission left a pretty big, undefined hole in how that would realistically happen. Their basic concept was essentially a version of South Park's Underwear Gnomes' business plan:

1. Phase 1: Collect rock samples for return to Earth.
2. Phase 2: ?
3. Phase 3: Samples delivered to Earth. Profit!

NASA was very unhappy with the rough concept that had been originally developed for "Phase 2" and directed other engineers to develop more effective and less costly replacement plans to send new landers to Mars' surface, collect the rock samples from their depots where they are being held as inventory, and transport them to Earth.

Here is an animation featuring RocketLab's Mars sample return concept, which gives an idea of the complexity that's involved in a "Phase 2" for a sample return mission:

After more than a year of studies for the mission with little prospect of affordably achieving its goal, the U.S. Congress pulled the plug on the sample return mission as it had been defined on 6 January 2026 by declining to fund it. The appropriations bill funding NASA and cutting off the Mars Sample Return mission ultimately passed with a bipartisan majority of the U.S. Congress on 16 January 2026.

The Mars Perseverance Rover will continue to collect and store additional rock samples as its mission will continue, but exports from Mars will be on hold until the right combination of an achievable return mission at an affordable cost has been realized.

The following chart presents our latest estimates of Mars' GDP by Martian year and quarter:

Mars GDP has been in recession since the first quarter of Martian Year 38 (MY38-Q1), with no new rock samples collected or placed into inventory for export on Mars since March 2025. We anticipate that lack of economic activity will continue through the current Martian quarter (MY38-Q3), which will end on 24 April 2026.