The United States initiated Operation Epic Fury against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had closed its trading week the day before, ending at a value of 6,878.88. Through the close of trading on 30 March 2026 the index has dropped 535.16 points, or about 7.8% of its pre-geopolitical event level.

As major events go in the U.S. stock market, at this point in time, the impact of the Iran war is a little smaller in magnitude than 2025's DeepSeek AI shock that sent the S&P 500 crashing between 19 February 2025 and 13 March 2025. The following chart shows both events, with the S&P 500 mapped against its underlying trailing year dividends per share.

The main difference between the two events is the apparent steepness of their declines. As shown in the chart, the DeepSeek AI shock appears to have involved a more severe dropoff, falling a similar amount in a shorter period of time, but we won't know for sure if that's the case until after SPGlobal finalizes the S&P 500's dividened data for 2026-Q1 after the close of trading on 31 March 2026. In the chart, the trailing year dividend data is based on a combination of historic outcomes and quarterly dividend futures that don't precisely match up with the S&P 500's calendar quarters.

In any case, the Iran war event looks set to become larger in magnitude than the DeepSeek AI shock. Will the S&P 500 continue declining so much that it overtakes the combination one-two punch of 2025's DeepSeek AI shock and the "Liberation Day" global tariff event? Or will it recover before it might drop that much?

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) has dropped for four consecutive weeks, coinciding with the market-moving geopolitical event of the Iran war that began on 28 February 2026. In the fourth week since the Iran war began, the index dropped 2.1% to close out the week at 6,368.85.

Through these four weeks, the S&P 500 has been the strongest of the three major U.S. stock market indices in losing 7.4% of its value since the close of trading on 27 February 2026. The S&P 500 is the only one that hasn't yet confirmed a correction, defined as a 10% decline from its last peak. The index last peaked at 6,978.59 on 27 January 2026 and is now a little over 8.7% below it.

The market moving headlines during the fourth week of March 2026 highlighted the problems Federal Reserve officials are having in reading the state of the U.S. economy to determine the path they will take in setting U.S. interest rates. For its part, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool cut through the Fed's foggy analytical clutter to anticipate no interest rate changes through the end of 2026. Instead, the tool indicates a low probability of rate hikes, giving about a 3 out of 10 chance of a quarter point rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate being announced after the Fed's Open Market Committee meets on 28 October (2026-Q4).

The latest update of the alternative futures chart whose the S&P 500 continued a downward trajectory below the redzone forecast range we added to the chart at the end of February 2026. The centerline of that forecast range is effectively functioning as a counterfactual, indicating where the trajectory the S&P 500 would have taken in the absence of the ongoing geopolitical event.

Through the close of trading on 27 March 2026, the S&P 500 is about 7.3% below that level.

Here are the week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 23 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls over 13% on Trump postponing military strikes on Iran energy infrastructure
• US construction spending unexpectedly falls in January
• Fed minions fear inflation, worry about jobs as they debate direction for U.S. interest rates:
• Fed's Goolsbee: Inflation now the greater risk, watching expectations closely - CNBC
• Fed's Miran still believes Fed should cut interest rates - Bloomberg TV
• Fed's Daly: no single most-likely path for rates
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China limits fuel price hike to cushion impact of rising oil prices
• China's Sinopec will not buy Iranian oil, wants to tap state reserves
• BOJ minions not getting the inflation they want, but still want to hike rates:
• Japan's core inflation slows below BOJ target, complicates rate communication
• BOJ's narrative shift signals dogged commitment to rate hikes
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions claim they'll snap into action if they think they need to fight inflation:
• Iran war deals new blow to Europe's industrial heartland
• ECB won't hesitate to act if inflation at risk of getting entrenched, Kazimir says
• ECB must act in case of second-round inflation impacts, VP tells El Mundo
• Stock market ends higher as Trump says deal with Iran could be soon
• Wall Street indexes rally after Trump postpones strikes on Iran's power plants

Tuesday, 24 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises, with Brent climbing back above $100 as optimism fades over Iran war de-escalation
• Commentary: Why $100 oil won't break the American Consumer
• US fourth-quarter productivity growth revised down, but trend remains solid
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Feed cost surge from Iran war deepens pain for China's pig farmers
• China banks eye profit boost as nearly $8 trillion in deposits to be repriced
• BOJ minions not sweating small contributors to inflation:
• BOJ chief expects limited impact on inflation from proposed food tax freeze
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Euro zone economy close to stalling as war takes its toll
• Wall Street ended lower as Iran tensions weighed on market sentiment
• Wall Street indexes fall on worries about Middle East war, interest rates

Wednesday, 25 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls as reports of 15-point proposal spurs ceasefire hopes
• US import prices post largest gain in nearly four years in February
• Trump's tariffs had little impact on GDP in 2025, but raised revenue, academic paper finds
• Fed minions thinking they've set interest rates just right for now, report they're losing less money:
• Fed's Barr sees rates holding steady 'for some time' given above-target inflation
• US Fed's loss narrows sharply to $19.6 billion in 2025
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• AI boom accelerates China's chip industry growth as demand strains supply chain
• Chinese food delivery giants surge as regulator, state media call end to price war
• U.S. equities closed higher on talks of a possible U.S.-Iran peace plan
• Wall Street advances as investors bet on Mideast de-escalation

Thursday, 26 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise 5% as investors fear further Middle East escalation
• Iran war chokes petrochemical supply, sends plastic prices soaring
• US inflation will surge to 4.2% on energy shock, warns OECD
• Low US weekly unemployment claims indicate labor market stable
• US fixed 30-year mortgage rate jumps to six-month high as Iran war drags on
• US population growth falters as immigration falls
• Fed minions thinking about maybe cutting rates later in 2026, but are less likely to do so:
• Fed still set to cut US rates late this year, say economists, rejecting market pricing: Reuters poll
• Fed's Miran Says He Raised Rate Projection Due to Inflation Data
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• From beer to cosmetics, Asia feels full force of energy crisis
• Exclusive: China considers easing bank shareholding limits to boost capital
• BOJ minions excited to see higher inflation developing in Japan:
• https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-corporate-service-inflation-perks-up-february-2026-03-26/
• ECB minions standing by to maybe change their perfect monetary policy:
• ECB ready to hike rates even if expected inflation surge is short-lived, Lagarde says
• ECB Would Need ‘Forceful’ Response if Inflation Surges, Says Lagarde
• Nasdaq dropped more than 2% as investors react to rising Middle East tensions
• Wall Street slides as Mideast de-escalation uncertainty weighs on sentiment
• Nasdaq confirms correction, Wall Street slumps on Middle East uncertainty

Friday, 27 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. Oil Prices Surge Back Above $100 a Barrel
• Oil, gas exploration is back: Energy giants hunt to replenish reserves
• Fed minions worried about inflation arising from Iran war, even though their crystal ball is foggy:
• Fed's Jefferson: sustained higher energy prices could worsen inflation, spending outlook
• Fed's Paulson worried about war's impact on inflation expectations
• Fed's Barkin says 'fog' again obscuring economic outlook
• Fed's Cook says the balance of risks has shifted toward inflation due to Iran war
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese ships halt attempt to exit Hormuz despite Iran safe passage assurances
• China's largest banks' profits virtually flat as property slump continues
• China's industrial profits jump as Middle East war casts long shadow
• BOJ's former chief minion still excited about more interest rate hikes in Japan:
• Bank of Japan may raise rates by June as Iran war fuels inflation, its ex-top economist says
• Ex-BOJ chief Kuroda sees 3-4 more rate hikes to 1.5% in 2027, Asahi interview shows
• BOJ likely to warn of inflation whiplash from Iran war, ex-central bank executive says
• BOJ releases new natural rate estimate as part of communication drive
• ECB minions stay they're ready to keep standing by as long as they can before raising Eurozone interest rates:
• ECB should not be in a rush to raise rates, Schnabel says
• ECB should not rush to hike rates as baseline still holds, Patsalides says
• Dow tumbles almost 800 points and enters correction, S&P 500 posts fifth straight losing week
• Nasdaq plunged over 2% as Middle East tensions rattled Wall Street
• Stocks tumble, Dow confirms correction territory, as Middle East tensions drag

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 fell to +2.0%, declining from the +2.3% growth anticipated a week earlier.

The upcoming trading week will be short with the Good Friday market holiday on tap.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official who is trying to see the future for inflation in a crystal ball that has fogged up".

The 2026 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas came and went at the beginning of the year. At the show, advanced electronics, communications, and computing devices tend to hold sway, but the 2026 show featured a new kitchen product that delivered something more: a range hood for venting smoke and fumes from stove tops.

At their most basic level, range hoods take on the role of a chimney for keeping the byproducts that come from cooking with heat or fire from filling the kitchen and all the other rooms of a home. Since the advent of modern electric and gas stoves, they typically include a fan to pull air up from the range top to a vent that directs the pulled air out of the home altogether. At the 2026 CES chow however, Arspura took the concept to a whole new level, replacing the basic fan of typical range hoods with industrial-grade airflow vortex technology to produce a much more effective design. The following video from their CES display introduces their InclindedQuadVortex (IQV) range hood:

The next video provides more insight into how the IQV range hood system works:

The combination of the air curtain in the front and the side panels helps the vortex engine pull air directly from the range top. Since the vortex engine is more powerful in generating air flow than a typical fan motor used in a traditional range hood, it is able to vent out the smoke and gases out from cooking much more quickly and effectively.

At present, Arspura's IQV is available as a kitchen upgrade product, whose main limit today is the need to install larger diameter ducting to accommodate its airflow. If it becomes popular enough however, that obstacle would be overcome as homebuilders choose to adopt it as a basic feature high-end kitchens, at first, and then in most kitchens in new homes.

HT: Core77.

Admittedly, we've only been following the ten worst performing component stocks of the S&P 500 (Index: INX) in 2025 for the last four months, but we're starting to think that many, if not most, of these stocks would not have made very good investments during that time.

If you're just joining this series, the Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks are a group of ten stocks that Seeking Alpha's Jason Capul identified as "Thanksgiving leftovers no one wants". Four month later, that's mostly true, but with one notable exception.

That exception is Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW). Back on 28 November 2025, the chemical industry giant was trading at $23.85 per share. Four months later, through the close of trading on 25 March 2026, the company's share price has risen to $39.63. Or rather, its value has increased to be 166% of what it was on the day after Thanksgiving 2025, as the company's outlook has brightened in response to the geopolitical turmoil disrupts the supply chains of its foreign competition.

The following spaghetti chart presents the performance of each of the ten Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks with respect to the S&P 500, each indexed with respect to their closing values on 28 November 2025.

Aside from Dow, the only other company whose stock has registered a sustained increase is Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK). The footwear designer behind popular sneaker and boot brands like Hoka, Teva, and UGG has seen its stock grow to $100 per share at the close of trading on 25 March 2026, 122% of its post-Thanksgiving Day 2025 level.

The remaining eight Thanksgiving Leftover stocks are doing less well than the S&P 500, which itself is just 96.2% of its day-after-Thanksgiving-Day value. Five of these eight firms are bunched within ten percent of the S&P 500's level, but the remaining three are doing much, much worse. Here's a quick summary of their share prices on 25 March 2026:

• Factset Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) - Share Price: $193.78 (69.9% of 28 November 2025 value)
• Gartner (NYSE: IT) - Share Price: $150.23 (64.5% of 28 November 2025 value)
• Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) - Share Price: $21.97 (55.5% of 28 November 2025 value)

We covered The Trade Desk's decline in the previous edition, but observe the ad-tech firm's ongoing implosion has recently gotten worse as an audit firm advised its clients to avoid it. Through this point of 2026, The Trade Desk is the worst performing component stock of the entire S&P 500 index.

The other two poor performers, Gartner and FactSet, aren't far behind. Gartner, an IT research firm and consulting house whose business model is directly in the crosshairs of AI technology, which promises to do much of the same things that Gartner does at much lower costs. Financial data provider FactSet faces a very similar existential challenge from AI technologies, which the trend for its stock price is capturing.

As for how 2025's Thanksgiving Leftover Stocks are doing as a group, we find they are underperforming the S&P 500. If we treat them like an equal-weighted index, they're doing horribly, but if we weight them by their market capitalization, like the S&P 500 itself, they're still doing worse, but not anywhere near as badly. The following chart visualizes how they've done during the last four months:

Perhaps all this will change in the next month when we next update how 2025's Thanksgiving Leftover stocks are doing in 2026. Or not. If you were going to place a bet on the outcome, would you take the over or the under?

Once upon a time, and in truth, as recently as four years ago, there was a strong relationship between the spot price of gold and the inflation-indexed market yield of 10-Year Constant Maturity U.S. Treasuries.

It was an inverse relationship. When the inflation-adjusted interest rate on the 10-year bonds fell, signaling an increase in inflation, the price of gold would rise. And vice-versa. If the inflation-adjusted yields of these treasuries rose, indicating falling inflation, the price of gold would fall as well.

That made a sort of sense. But that relationship has broken down in the last four years. Starting from 17 March 2022, when the Federal Reserve finally acted to hike interest rates to combat the high inflation unleashed by the Biden administration a year earlier, the relationship between the inflation-indexed 10-year Treasury and gold spot prices has steadily broken down.

We can see that in the following chart, in which the price of gold has fully decouples from the interest rate of the inflation-protected 10-year Treasury.

Most of this decoupling has taken place since 27 December 2023. At that time, the yield of the inflation-indexed 10-year Treasury was 1.64% and the price of an ounce of gold was $2,079. Since that date, the 10-year inflation-protected Treasury has ranged between that low and a high of 2.28% on 30 April 2024. Today, that yield is just below the middle of that range at 1.88%.

But the price of gold has soared during this time. In recent months, as the 10-year TIPS yield has ranged between, it soared to reach a high of $5,414.49 an ounce on 28 January 2026. In the weeks since, it has plummeted, losing over 10% of its peak value. All without any big change in the inflation-protected treasury yield.

It's like the carnival game "high striker". Gold prices are rising and falling by huge amounts independently of changes in yields and inflation.

In mathematics, the slope of a vertical line is described as "undefined". Which is to say there is no relationship between it and whatever the horizontal axis represents. In the case of gold prices, inflation, and the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, we can say that in March 2026, no such relationship exists between these three things, nor has there been such a relationship in years.

Perhaps there never was. Or perhaps we're missing a bigger factor that's holding greater sway today. If we are, what do you suppose it is and why has it been able to cause the price of gold to change so much in during the last four years as compared to how it changed during the preceding 15 years?

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are taking turns playing the high striker carnival game that is labeled 'GOLD PRICES' and the bear asks 'DIDN'T THIS GAME USE TO HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH INFLATION?".