The first quarter of 2022 has come to a close, with the U.S. stock market's dividend-paying companies turning in a very strong performance. At the same time, there are signs of increasing distress in some quarters of the market, though that distress remains well below the threshold indicating recessionary conditions are present in the U.S. economy.

The following chart visualizes the count of U.S. firms either increasing or decreasing their dividends in each quarter from the first quarter of 2021 (2021-Q1) through the just completed first quarter of 2022 (2022-Q1).

During 2022-Q1, 718 publicly traded dividend paying firms announced they would increase their dividend payouts to their shareholding owners, which is both 92 more than 2021-Q1's total of 626 and the most since 2018-Q1's 807. At the same time, the number of companies announcing dividend cuts crept up for the second quarter in a row, rising to 71, which is greater than the number of companies cutting dividends in the first quarter of the previous year, the most since the Coronavirus Recession bottomed in the second quarter of 2020.

Looking just at March 2022, we find the both the month's totals for dividend rises and reductions are rising, as shown in our second chart, which visualizes these numbers going back to January 2004:

Let's get under the hood with March 2022's metadata, which records the number of dividend declarations, special dividends, increases, decreases, and omissions, along with their month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons:

• A total of 4,438 U.S. firms declared dividends in March 2022, a decrease of 218 from February 2022's recorded value but 1,259 more than did in March 2021.
• 72 firms announced they would pay a special (or extra) dividend to their shareholders in March 2022, 12 less than did in February 2022 but 7 more than did in March 2021.
• There were 158 firms that declared they would increase their dividends in March 2022. That's 208 fewer than did in February 2022, but just 8 fewer than did in March 2021. The U.S. stock market has a seasonal pattern where March's number of dividend increases is significantly lower than both January and February's totals, so this outcome is keeping with that factor.
• On the negative side, 29 publicly traded companies announced they would reduce their dividends in March 2022, which is 4 more than did in February 2022 and 6 more than did in back in March 2021. March 2022's total is more than any month since January 2021's count of 32 dividend cut announcements.
• No U.S. firms omitted paying their dividends in March 2022, continuing the trend established after June 2021. For a year over year comparison, that's one less than March 2021's total number of firms that suspended paying their dividends.

Because we're seeing a rising number of dividend cuts, we've pulled a sample of 25 firms whose dividend cut announcements we tracked during the first quarter of 2022 to get a sense of which industrial sectors are coming under earnings pressure. Here's the list:

• Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE: CODI)
• Orchid Island Capital (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: ORC)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• KKR (NYSE: KKR)
• AT&T (NYSE: T)
• Sabine Royalty Trust (NYSE: SBR)
• Exelon (NASDAQ: EXC)
• Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO)
• Falcon Minerals (NASDAQ: FLMN)
• San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: SJT)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• PPL (NYSE: PPL)
• Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• James River (NASDAQ: JRVR)
• Gouverneur Bancorp (OTC: GOVB)
• Bridge Investment Group Holdings (NASDAQ: BRDG)
• Luby's (NYSE: LUB)
• Lument Finance Trust (REIT-Mortgage) (NASDAQ: LFT)
• Orchid Island Capital (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: ORC)
• Permianville Royalty Trust (NYSE: PVL)
• Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT)
• Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE: CRT)
• Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR)
• Western Asset Mortgage Capital (REIT-Mortgage) (NYSE: WMC)

In the sample, which represents just 35% of 2022-Q1's total number of reported dividend reductions, we find 11 firms from the oil and gas sector, mainly royalty trusts that pay variable dividends on a monthly basis, which is why some appear on the list twice. While these firms' revenues benefit from the rising global price for oil, they also face rising costs for capital expenditures from constrained supply chains, pinching their margins. The next biggest category for dividend cutters are the four Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the sample, which is heavily represented by mortgage REITs. These firms are negatively impacted by rising interest rates, where we anticipate seeing more firms from this category in the months ahead.

The biggest dividend cut in the sample is for AT&T (NYSE: T) that is related to the telecom's sale of its WarnerMedia unit to Discovery (NASDAQ: DISCB), which does not pay a dividend. Standard & Poor reports the change in corporate ownership reduced the S&P 500's quarterly dividend for 2022-Q1 by $0.82 per share.

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 1 April 2022.

Standard and Poor. S&P Indicated Rate Change. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 1 April 2022.

Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in February 2022 is $74,799, an increase of $700 (or 0.94%) from the initial estimate of $74,099 in January 2022.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through February 2022. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant February 2022 U.S. dollars.

February 2022's estimated median household income of $74,799 is just $21 higher than January 2022's inflation-adjusted estimate of $74,778 in terms of constant February 2022 U.S. dollars. It is also only $24 higher than December 2021's $74,775 by this measure.

In nominal terms, median household increase has risen by $1,319 from December 2021's revised estimate of $73,480 to February 2022's $74,799. President Biden's inflation has eroded 98.2% of the estimated nominal increase in median household income recorded over this period, marking it as a period of stagnation.

Analyst's Notes

Following January 2022's rather extensive revisions for population estimates, February 2022's revisions were concentrated in the wage and salary data. Here, the BEA made only minor upward adjustments its estimates of aggregate wage and salary income for October 2021 (+0.005%), November 2021 (+0.006%), December 2021 (+0.020%), and January 2022 (+0.006%).

Looking forward, we anticipate the inflation-adjusted data for March 2022 will capture nearly all of the surge in energy and commodity prices resulting from following Russia's 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical power plays that have followed since. Having occurred so late in February however, that month's inflation data barely shows any of that impact.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 31 March 2022. Accessed: 31 March 2022.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 31 March 2022. Accessed: 31 March 2022.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 10 March 2022. Accessed: 10 March 2022.

It's not often we get to take on a mystery that perplexes professional investors, but as fortune would have it, here we are!

Let's turn to a Reuters analysis that appeared on 30 March 2022 to get a description of what's got Wall Street's money mavens all hot and bothered about what they don't know.

As a stunning rebound in U.S. stocks charges on, investors are questioning how long the surge can continue in the face of a hawkish Federal Reserve, warnings of recession from the bond market and geopolitical uncertainty.

The S&P 500 is up 11% since March 8, its biggest 15-day percentage gain since June 2020, led by many of the high-growth stocks that have been pummeled for much of the year. The benchmark index has cut its year-to-date losses to 2.8%, after it earlier swooned by as much as 12.5%.

The move has come despite a broad range of concerns that rocked equities earlier this quarter, among them the war in Ukraine, surging inflation and a sharp rise in Treasury yields fueled by tightening monetary policy from the Fed.

Stocks shrugged off the latest ominous sign from the bond market on Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed up 1.2% even as the widely tracked U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since September 2019, a phenomenon that has reliably predicted past recessions.

"It's been mystifying," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management. "I think that the bond market is sober and the equity market is quixotic."

Is it now?

Perhaps not so much if you know how the math behind stock prices works. Let's see if we can't boil this down simply.

First, the stock market and the bond market are not the same. While both certainly reflect the random onset of new information that investors continually absorb, they do not work the same. Because they don't, they can produce very different outcomes even when they absorb the same information. Both markets have been absorbing the expectations that investors are developing for what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do with the short term interest rate it controls as it copes with President Biden's persistent inflation. Investors in both markets are gearing up for the Fed to step up the size of the rate hikes it will implement at roughly six week intervals throughout 2022.

For the bond market, that directly affects the yields that are the ultimate output of the bond market. They see the escalation path for the future and that's pretty much it as far as it affects how they go about making their current day investment decisions.

But stock prices work differently than bond yields. Stock prices are driven by growth expectations for their underlying dividends per share, which are similar to and yet are not bond yields. Stock market investors making their current day investment decisions expect to realize different levels of growth in dividends at different points of time in the future.

For them, the timing of each of the Fed's upcoming interest rate hikes matters just as much as their size. During the first quarter of 2022, they were mainly focused on what the Fed would be doing in 2022-Q2. Mainly because they've gone from simply wondering how many quarter point rate hikes there would be during the quarter to nearly fully accepting they'll see the Fed announce two half point rate hikes before the end of June 2022.

That addressed their expectations for 2022-Q2, but not 2022-Q3, which is where their forward-looking focus has shifted. That shift sparked the rally through what we've been reporting as the second Lévy flight event of 2022. Stock prices have risen because the expections for the change in the growth rate of dividends for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) is much more positive than it is for 2022-Q2.

These are the kinds of changes the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart is designed to track. You can see the dramatic positive change in stock prices that has taken place during the last few weeks in the latest update to our 2022-Q1 chart, where the magnitude and direction of the change in the S&P 500's trajectory is explained by investors refocusing their attention from 2022-Q2 toward the more distant future quarter of 2022-Q3 and its more positive expectations for the change in the year-over-year growth rate of dividends.

For that "soberness" that Jack Ablin is mystified hasn't appeared in stock prices, he'll have to wait until the expectations for future dividend growth change. If the bond market's pricing in recession, that expectation will be communicated to stock market investors through dividend cuts as distressed firms announce them.

Alternatively, he could wait until investors have a reason to refocus a significant portion of their attention on 2022-Q2. That would be a short and brutal path to sobriety, not to mention one that doesn't require any change in expections for future dividends.

If neither of those things happen, we have the scenario that Ed Yardeni described:

Strategist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said March 8 may have marked a bottom for the stock market this year, believing stocks are gaining support from investors using equities as a hedge against inflation, which stands at its highest level in nearly four decades.

"The fog of war had masked the outlook, but the long-term bull market, punctuated by panic attacks, remains intact," he wrote on Tuesday.

That's the best case scenario at this point. But notice his caveats - what Yardeni describes is what we call chaos, where what he calls panic attacks are, for us, garden variety Lévy flights. That chaos, as we've described and quantified it, is the environment to which stock market investors have adapted, whether they recognize it as such or not.

After the math, it all comes down to that random onset of new information that determines both what investors expect and when. Here's our selection of market-moving headlines outlining what stock market investors had to absorb in the final week of March 2022.

Monday, 28 March 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slides about 7% on concerns of weaker Chinese demand
• U.S. Treasury yield curve divergence sends mixed recession signals
• Explainer: Part of the U.S. yield curve just inverted - Does that mean a recession is coming?
• Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:
• Japan to begin work on relief package to counter rising fuel, food costs
• ECB minions say no risk of stagflation in Eurozone:
• ECB's Lagarde does not see risk of stagflation
• Ratings firm S&P Global cuts euro zone growth forecast to 3.3%
• S&P 500 climbs for third straight day as Tesla leads

Tuesday, 29 March 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Tightening U.S. labor market underpins consumer confidence despite soaring inflation
• U.S. 2s/10s Treasury yield curve inverts
• Inversion of key US yield curve slice is a recession alarm
• Explainer-U.S. yield curve inversion: What is it telling us?
• Analysis-U.S. Treasuries yield curve flashes red to investors
• Oil drops 2% amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks, China lockdowns
• Fed minion warming up to bigger rate hikes, former minion says Fed minions made recession "inevitable":
• Fed's Harker expects 25-basis-point rate hikes, but open to 50 basis points
• Is a Recession Coming? The Fed Has Made It Inevitable
• Japanese government, BOJ minions looking to keep stimulus going and to prop up yen:
• Japan PM orders cabinet to compile relief package to combat rising prices
• BOJ policymakers saw need for easy policy despite rising prices - March meeting summary
• Weak demand, cautious price-setting keeping Japan inflation low - BOJ's Amamiya
• Bank of Japan ramps up battle to defend yield cap even as weakening yen raises economic risk
• Explainer-What would Japan's currency intervention to combat a weak yen look like?
• ECB minion wants to increase 'risk-free' Eurozone interest rate to zero percent:
• ECB's Holzmann wants key rate at zero by year end - BZ
• War, inflation hit euro zone recovery hopes
• Wall Street rallies on hopes Russia, Ukraine can resolve conflict

Wednesday, 30 March 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil up 3% on tight supply, prospects of new Russia sanctions
• OPEC+ likely to stick to existing oil output deal, sources say
• U.S. mortgage rates jump by the most in 11 years -MBA
• U.S. private payrolls rise solidly; corporate profits growth slows
• Fed minion says they won't think about stopping rate hikes until they hit 2.5%!
• Fed's George puts neutral rate of around 2.5% "as a starting point"
• K.C. Fed's George: Balance sheet debate needs to account for bond inversion risk
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, China:
• German govt advisers slash GDP outlook, see recession risk
• 'Welcome back to the 1970s': Oil, gas prices push German inflation above 7%
• Germany girds for gas rationing, Europe on edge in Russian standoff
• China's March factory activity likely shrank amid virus outbreaks - Reuters poll
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China to roll out policies to stabilise economy as fast as possible: CCTV cites cabinet meeting
• ECB minions say buckle up for stagflation, inflation will stop rising, and deadbeats will be cut off!
• Euro zone facing slower growth, higher inflation: ECB's Lagarde
• ECB's Lagarde insists inflation will stop rising
• ECB tells banks to cut lending to indebted borrowers after binge
• Dow, S&P close lower after 4 days of gains as Russia bombs Ukraine

Thursday, 31 March 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil slumps 7% as U.S. plans record crude reserve release
• Oil above $100/barrel to stay as market struggles to replace Russian barrels: Reuters poll
• OPEC+ says prolonged Ukraine conflict would be major blow to global economy
• Explainer-What is the SPR, the emergency oil stash Biden is tapping?
• U.S. consumer spending cools as goods outlays decline; labor market tightening
• Fed minions being possessed by rate hike groupthink:
• As Fed trains sights on inflation, doves fade from view
• Bigger trouble developing in China, Eurozone:
• Chinese manufacturing, services contract together for first time since 2020
• Chinese developers say funding woes, local govt caution undermine pledges of support
• Euro zone growth barely positive in first half: ECB's de Guindos
• ECB minions counting on inflation falling to 2%:
• ECB sees inflation stabilising around 2% target: Lane
• Euro zone inflation surge intensifies ECB policy dilemma
• Analysis-End of an era in sight as euro area borrowing costs sweep above 0%
• Wall Street falls as S&P suffers biggest quarterly drop in two years

Friday, 1 April 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls most in 2 years after oil stockpile release
• COVID weighing less and less on the U.S. job market
• U.S. unemployment rate drops to 3.6% as labor market rapidly tightens
• U.S. auto sales slide but demand for EVs is hot
• U.S. manufacturing sector activity slows in March; input prices surge - ISM
• Chief Fed minion worked on a weekend, Fed minions excited for lots of rate hikes:
• Fed Chair Powell worked the weekend after Russia's invasion began
• U.S. yield curve inverts after strong jobs data; world shares mixed
• Fed's Evans sees 7 rate hikes this year, but says that could change
• Bigger trouble developing in Mexico:
• Mexico's factories contract for 25th straight month, inflation rises
• BOJ minions want to keep stimulus going to get weaker yen:
• Analysis-BOJ to keep rates low as strong, not weak, yen still Kuroda's enemy No. 1
• ECB minions hoping Eurozone residents don't notice inflation:
• Euro zone inflation hits new peak, deepening ECB's dilemma
• ECB needs time to analyse fallout from 'very high' inflation: Lane
• Europe can learn lessons from 1970s oil shock as rationing looms
• Wall Street posts modest gains as jobs report keeps Fed hikes on track

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued to project the Fed's next moves will be two consecutive half point rate hikes in May and June 2022 (2022-Q2), but added a third half point rate hike in July 2022 (2022-Q3). Those are followed by a resumption of quarter point rate hikes every six weeks with hikes in September 2022 (2022-Q3), November and December 2022 (2022-Q4), followed by more in 2023 with one each in February and March 2023 (2023-Q1) and one more in June 2023 (2023-Q2).

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's latest estimate of real GDP growth in 2022-Q1 has bounced back up to 1.5% after data showing more investment growth than previously expected was relea

You know how it is. You've worked hard and you've gotten something done, but as happens all too often, there's no one around to appreciate your achievement. Not your friends, not your co-workers, and definitely not your boss. Wouldn't it be nice to feel like you were getting some well deserved recognition?

Wouldn't it be nice to get a pat on the back?

Inventor Ralph Piro thought so, and thus, the Pat on the Back Apparatus he conceived came into a world where recognition was needed but not available, earning the award of U.S. Patent 4,608,967 on 2 September 1986.

We can only speculate if Piro's celebration of the event resembled Figure 1 from the patent:

To be sure, Piro has genuine empathy for those seeking recognition, which is revealed in the following portions from the background of the invention, in which he draws upon lessons from psychology.

This invention relates to an apparatus which is useful for providing a self-administered pat-on-the-back or a congratulatory gesture....

The present invention is relatively simple to assemble and operate and may be utilized by either a child or adult. One such usage is as an amusement or entertainment device which may be enjoyed either alone or in the presence of a group of persons. In this regard, the present invention is particularly suitable as a humorous gift to an employee or family member or as a party favor.

On the other hand, the device of the present invention may also be utilized to impart significant psychological benefits to the user. In this connection, it is well known in the art and practice of self-administered positive reinforcement activity that various techniques can be successfully employed to extol the virtues of one's actions and thoughts. For example, it has been reported that many wealthy and successful individuals engage in conversations with themselves, that is, they talk to themselves. Such an activity is understandable in view of the often small populace of self-motiviated individuals and in view of the large volume of self-defeatist conversation known to emanate from those of low self esteem. Another type of this activity is that of using mirrors to add visual impact and impression to that of the above mentioned voice feedback techniques.

Recent developments in psychological development techniques point to the need to have an abundance of behavior modification techniques available for the individual who seeks to reach more of the potential which scientists, spiritual leaders, and personal observation teach is attainable. Historically, much of the material available to the individual has been in the form of written material which must be read or studied as part of a course of self-improvement. More recently such technical advances as recorded media has made available voice and visual recordings in which one may engage in the development of a positive mental attitude (PMA). Such PMA materials have been widely received by large sectors of the populace and are credited with improved success in arenas of personal human involvement such as sales, supervision, teaching and leadership.

As mentioned above, in providing for positive reinforcement with prior methods several techniques have been utilized. Most frequently, one who is in need of congratulations or encouragement often tells friends or work associates of his or her feelings and solicits a needed-pat-on-the-back. In the absence of other persons or of persons either friendly or sensitive to one's needs the individual must resort to raising their arm and hand high into the air overhead and bending the arm at the elbow to allow the hand to gently strike the upper portion of the back. This places one in a somewhat uncomfortable posture and additionally lacks the placement of a pat in the most desired middle portion of the back.

Because these methods rely on others which may be psychologically hostile or on a rather contorted physical position it is desirable to have available a more favorable means for providing a pat-on-the-back.

Piro is right to recognize the potential for the psychologically hostile to act against the needs of those needing recognition. Our search of Amazon to find if products inspired by his invention were available turned up an example of that hostility in the form of a series of novelty T-shirts. There were no back-patting apparatuses to be found anywhere on the online retailer's site.

But not all hope is lost. Some tinkerers have stepped into the gap left in the marketplace to build their own device for patting themselves on the back, as demonstrated by the following video:

The question for us all is in whose world would we rather live? That of novelty T-shirts or that of Ralph Piro?

From the Inventions in Everything Archives

This isn't the first time the IIE team featured a patented invention whose purpose was entirely self-congratulatory for their inventor. There is one other:

• High Five!

Arizona's coronavirus pandemic experience is nearing its end has come to an end.

The first sign that was the case came just a few days after the penultimate update to our long-running series. Arizona's Department of Health Services announced it would suspend daily reporting of the state's data on cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and numerous other related metrics on 26 February 2022 in a transition to weekly reporting that would begin on 2 March 2022. Here's an example of how the state's presentation of its data for new COVID-related hospital admissions presentation changed:

We've followed Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic for two reasons. First, we were among the first analysts to confirm the state had become an epicenter for COVID-19 infections within the U.S. in June 2020. Second, Arizona is one of 26 states that presented its high quality COVID-19 data on a daily basis, which made it possible to use back calculation techniques to identify both the timing and causes of major turning points in the state's pandemic experience, which we've featured throughout the series.

The change to weekly reporting however closes off our ability to continue our analysis, because the weekly data isn't granular enough to zero in on events contributing to changes in the state's COVID trends. That change however is something that only makes sense for public health officials if they no longer anticipate a need to continue that kind of tracking. It's good news.

Flashing forward one month later, Arizona remained one of 21 states with active COVID-19 emergency orders in effect. Arizona's public officials began signaling they would soon end the state of emergency for the coronavirus pandemic. Here's a Q&A with Arizona's Governor Doug Ducey from 23 March 2022:

Q: Any plans to end the state of emergency?

Ducey: Yes. The emergency is over, look around. The state is wide open. I think we had record number of people out for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Spring training in full bloom and people are coming here from around the country and around the world to watch the games, so we’re excited about it. We’re winding down a number of things that are purely administrative. We’re working with the legislature, the general fund and federal authorities to bring an end to all of that.

So are we a couple of weeks away from that ending? Months? Days? "It's coming," Ducey remarked.

On 25 March 2022, Arizona's state government took a major step that will allow it to lift its two-year-old state of emergency for the pandemic.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has signed legislation that will prevent temporary medical licenses issued under his coronavirus executive orders from immediately becoming invalid if he ends the state of emergency he issued two years ago.

Friday’s action extends temporary licenses issued since the Republican governor first declared a state of emergency on March 11, 2020. They will be valid until the end of the year if they were active at the start of this month.

Rep. Joanne Osborne of Goodyear told fellow Republicans in a caucus meeting last week that more than 2,200 licenses remain active, including about 1,200 issued to nurses. A waiver issued by the Department of Health Services under Ducey’s emergency order allowed doctors, nurses and other qualified health professionals to be licensed even if they lack current training or other requirements for an Arizona license.

The extension of the temporary licenses will allow boards that issue them time to process permanent license applications. The bill passed the Senate and House with only one no vote.

“If we want the emergency orders to end, this has to be taken care of first,” Republican Rep. Regina Cobb said at the same meeting of GOP House members. “And then once this is taken care of, then the governor can do what he needs to do as far as ending any emergency orders.”

At this writing, though it hasn't officially happened yet, the proverbial writing is on the wall. We've reached the end of our series on Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic!

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our previous coverage of Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic, presented in reverse chronological order.

• The End of Arizona's Coronavirus Pandemic Experience
• Omicron Rapidly Fades in Arizona
• Omicron Arrives in Arizona
• Upswing in Arizona COVID Cases Shows Signs of Peaking, Crowded ICUs
• COVID-19 Cases on Upswing in Arizona
• Arizona's COVID Hospital Admissions Unexpectedly Plunge
• All Indicators Confirm COVID Third Wave Receding in Arizona
• Arizona's Third COVID Wave Peaks and Begins to Recede
• Arizona COVID Cases Rising in Third Wave
• Arizona COVID Cases on Slow Uptrend in Summer 2021
• Increase in Arizona COVID Cases from Border Migration Crisis Stabilizing
• COVID-19 and the 2021 Border Migration Crisis in Arizona
• Improving COVID Trends Bottom and Flatline in Arizona
• Surge of Migrants, Lifting of Business Capacity Limits Change Arizona COVID Trends
• COVID-19 in Retreat in Arizona With Vaccines Gaining Traction
• The Ebb and Flow of COVID-19 in Arizona's ICUs
• Arizona's Plunging COVID-19 Caseloads and the Vaccines
• Arizona Enters Downward Trend for COVID-19 After Second Peak
• Arizona Passes Second COVID-19 Peak
• A Tale of Two States and the Coronavirus
• COVID-19 Questions, Answers, and Lessons Learned from Arizona
• The Deadly Intersection of Anti-Police Protests and COVID-19
• 2020 Campaign Events Drive Surge in Arizona COVID Cases
• Arizona Arrives at Critical Junction for Coronavirus Cases
• Arizona To Soon Reach A Critical Junction For COVID-19
• Getting More Than Care from Arizona's COVID ICU Beds
• Arizona's Decentralized Approach to Beating COVID
• Going Back to School with COVID-19
• Arizona Turns Second Corner Toward Crushing Coronavirus
• Arizona's Coronavirus Crest in Rear View Mirror
• The Coronavirus Turns a Corner in Arizona
• A Delayed First Wave Crests in the U.S. and a Second COVID-19 Wave Arrives
• The Coronavirus in Arizona
• A Closer Look at COVID-19 Deaths in Arizona
• The New Epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S.
• How Long Does a Serious COVID Infection Typically Last?
• How Deadly is the COVID-19 Coronavirus?
• Governor Cuomo and the Coronavirus Models
• How Do False Test Outcomes Affect Estimates of the True Incidence of Coronavirus Infections?
• How Fast Could China's Coronavirus Spread?

References

Political Calculations has been following Arizona's experience with the coronavirus experience from almost the beginning, because the state makes its high quality data publicly available. Specifically, the state's Departent of Health Services reports the number of cases by date of test sample collection, the number of hospitalizations by date of hospital admission, and the number of deaths by date recorded on death certificates.

This data, combined with what we know of the typical time it takes to progress to each of these milestones, makes it possible to track the state's daily rate of incidence of initial exposure to the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus using back calculation methods. Links to that data and information about how the back calculation method works are presented below:

Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard: Vaccine Administration. [Online Database]. Accessed 17 February 2022.

Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. 10 September 2020.

More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.