Tennis players looking to improve their game have a challenge. It's not always possible to find someone you can play or practice with when you have the time to go to the court.

Traditionally, this problem has been solved with the tennis ball machine. These tend to be pretty big machines that hold lots of tennis balls that are gravity fed one at a time into a tube. When the ball gets to a certain point in the tube, it encounters a set of fast-spinning rollers that accelerate and fire it out over the net where the practicing player can then return it. Fancy machines can alter the direction and the timing between ball launches.

Amazon features a number of portable tennis ball machines, the price of most of which starts around $1,000 and gets higher from there for all but the smallest and least capable machines. Given their bulky size and their cost, many players who use tennis ball machines will rent them.

But what if it you could shrink the size of a tennis ball machine enough that it could fit into a backpack? Or more ingeniously, is a backpack. One with a clever enough design that can hold as many as 100 tennis balls and your rackets? That could become an affordable option for a casual tennis player or a very useful kit for an enthusiastic player.

Hong Kong-based Nisplay Sports has done just that with their Y1 model, for which they've launched a Kickstarter campaign. The following video features tennis coach Henry So unboxing the Nisplay Y1 and demonstrating it. We've queued the video to start at the demonstration part:

As of 6 February 2026, the campaign has less than 30 days left to go, but has already well surpassed its goal. The campaign's Super Early Bird special is still available for HK $4,282, which is about US $549.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

That's just one of many bits of wisdom that baseball great Yogi Berra dispensed over his life. But how tough is it to predict what happened in the past?

Let's play a game to find out. We're going to give you a set up involving trade between the U.S. and China so you can guess what actually happened next. And then we'll give you more background information and a chance to change your prediction. Once you've locked in your prediction of what happened in the past, we'll tell you what actually happened.

To play, just scroll down line by line, so you don't get to the answer before you've made your prediction. It's that easy, here we go!

At the start of November 2025, the U.S. and China reached a new truce in their tariff war, which started almost seven months earlier. If you were asked to predict how the total value of goods exchanged between these two nations would proceed to change during November 2025, after the trade deal was reached, which option would you choose?

• The total value of goods exchanged would rise.
• The total value of goods exchanged would stay the same.
• The total value of goods exchanged would fall.

Now, let's throw some extra information for you to consider in making your hypothetical wager. The U.S.-China tariff war significantly reduced the quantity of goods exchanged between the two nations, with the total value of goods plunging to near-2020 pandemic lows in the months ahead of the November 2025 truce. That's a big deal because the months of August and September typically represent the peak of China's exports to the U.S., with consumer goods flowing into the U.S. ahead of the Christmas holiday shopping season. Meanwhile, the months of October and November typically represent the peak of U.S. exports to China, which are dominated by shipments of soybeans following their annual harvest at this time of year.

Does that extra information change your thinking? Or will you stick with your original wager? We'll give you one last moment to decide....

Now that you've made your prediction, the following chart reveals the outcome. Did you make the right call?

The total value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China fell in November 2025, both month-over-month and year-over-year. The reason why is the tariff war's disruption of trade between the two nations during the preceding months, which shrank the flow of goods in both directions and, more importantly, shrank the orders for the goods that might be exported.

By the time the tariff war truce was struck, the firms that do the actual importing and exporting of products didn't have orders for the goods they would normally be transacting set up, nor did they have any cargo ships lined up to transport them. Even if they had these things ready to go, since it typically takes about three weeks for the physical goods themselves to transit across the Pacific Ocean after the ships are loaded and leave their ports, most of the month of November would not have seen any uptick as a result of the deal. At least, not until the end of the final week of the month in the most optimistic of scenarios.

Now we'll make a prediction about what happens next. We will most likely see a reversal when the trade data for both December 2025 and January 2026 is reported in the months ahead, with a rising level of goods exchanged between the two nations.

What can we say? "The future ain't what it used to be."

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 29 January 2025.

Neon question mark photo by Simone Secci on Unsplash.

Motio Research reports their initial estimate of U.S. median household income for December 2025 is $86,820, a $340 (or 0.4%) decrease from their initial November 2025 estimate of $87,160.

The change is the first decline Motio's household income index has seen in the last several months, which we've described as appearing to "run hot" with respect to the estimates we develop using our alternate methodology. One interpretation of that outcome is that Motio Research's use of survey-based data has picked up on a new trend that isn't yet making its presence felt in the aggregate wage and salary data we use to develop our estimates of median household income.

That's a real possibility for October and November 2025's data, we found we had some really uncanny accuracy in predicting what our "official" estimates would be after the aggregate wage and salary data along with population data for both months became available in late January 2026. Our accuracy suggests the BEA is using similar methods to project their own estimates, which means it's fully independent of the survey-based data Motio Research utilizes in determining their estimates.

Another possibility is the sampling used by the Census Bureau in collecting income data through its monthly Current Population Survey. If that sample has been skewed to the high side compared to the general population in recent months, it could well produce estimates that are higher than those we project using the BEA's aggregate income data. Given the various survey and analytical methodologies involved, that state of affairs could last for several months until the survey population fully rolls over and the resulting income data undergoes what statisticians refer to as a reversion to the mean.

If this second possibility holds, we should see Motio Research's estimates move back toward our projections over the next several months. But if it stays elevated, then the argument for the first possibility becomes stronger. We'll all find out soon enough.

For now, Motio Research presents the results of its analysis of the Census Bureau's surveyed income data in the form of an seasonally-and-inflation-adjusted index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for December 2025 is 118.6.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through December 2025:

In other news, we're still dealing with the disruption of 2025's 43-day-long federal government shutdown. While many government agencies will be fully caught up in reporting their monthly data in the next few months, several of the data streams we follow in developing our own median household income estimates are still impacted by delays.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces median household income estimates using other original data sources that complement Motio Research's survey-based estimates. Because of the ongoing delays in official data being reported, we'll be delayed in producing our "official" median household income estimate for December 2025.

But then, if the data for which we're waiting is just a linear projection of historic data, we can produce a fairly accurate ballpark estimate in the meantime. Our ballpark estimate of median household income in the U.S. in December 2025 is $85,821, which is $1,001 (or 1.15%) below Motio Research's initial estimate for the month.

We'll see how close that is to our "official" estimate after we get the data we're after for December 2025, which we'll cover in our next regular edition of the median household income series.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

Dividend paying stocks in the U.S. stock market got off to an unexpectedly strong start in January 2026.

Tallying up the dividend-payers' metadata for the month, we find the year-over-year number of net favorable dividend actions totaled 50. With fifty more publicly traded firms announcing favorable dividend actions than unfavorable ones, January 2026 represents the best month on record since September 2023. Coincidentally, that was the last month that saw its net favorable dividend actions reach 50, as the next 15 months fell below that level, with 12 of those months recording a negative result.

Until January 2026. As we noted, this result was unexpected and largely driven by an increase in the number of firms announcing they would pay an extra, or special, dividend to their shareholding owners. The first month of 2026 had 98 such declarations, 46 more than were recorded in January 2025.

The following table presents a full summary of January 2026's dividend actions and provides a Month-over-Month (MoM) comparison with December 2025 and Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison with January 2025.

Without the extra dividends being announced, January 2026's dividend metadata is just slightly better than January 2025's data. The following chart presents the U.S. stock market's total number of dividend increases and decreases for each month from January 2004 through January 2026.

The number of dividend rises was 181, three more than counted a year earlier. The number of dividend decreases was 17, one less than counted a year earlier and well below the threshold that indicates recessionary conditions are present in the U.S. economy. Combined with the much larger increase in special dividends, January 2026 was a very strong month for the U.S. stock market's dividend-paying companies.

That's not to say it couldn't have been stronger. Companies that otherwise pay a set dividend will pay out extra dividends when their performance pulls in more cash than they anticipated, but they increase their ordinary dividends when they expect their good fortune to continue. Paying an extra dividend suggests many companies are taking a cautious wait-and-see approach with their dividends going into the new year.

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 2 February 2026.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is happy to be getting an extra dividend payment in January 2026".

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had a remarkably subdued week compared to other markets. The U.S. stock market index hit a new record high close of 6,978.59 on Tuesday, 27 January 2026, but went on to retreat about 0.4% from that high to end the week at 6,939.03 at the close of trading on Friday, 30 January 2026, which was a little over 0.3% below where it ended the previous week.

Most of the S&P 500's decline took place on Friday, 30 January and was relatively muted compared to what happened with gold and silver, which dropped by 9.1% and 26% respectively.

All three markets were affected by investors' reaction to President Donald Trump's announcement he would appoint Kevin Warsh to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. The appointment of Warsh, who is perceived as an inflation hawk based on his previous stint at the Fed, affirmed investors the Fed's independence was not at risk. That in turn sparked the large drops in the precious metals as a "safe-haven" hedge.

Meanwhile, Warsh's appointment left investor expectations for what will happen with U.S. interest rates in 2026 unchanged. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), when it anticipates a quarter point rate cut. The tool forecasts a better than 50% chance of another quarter point reduction on 28 October (2026-Q4). Had President Trump nominated a different candidate, the probabilities of more and larger rate cuts would likely have increased.

All this leaves the S&P 500's trajectory consistent with the level the dividend futures-based model sets for investors focusing on the future quarter of 2026-Q2.

Here are more of the market moving news headlines that influenced investor expectations during the week that was.

Monday, 26 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Winter storm snarls US travel, forces mass flight cancellations
• Oil prices rise as harsh winter disrupts US output
• US oil capital Houston buzzes as industry limbers up for Venezuela oil rush
• OPEC+ likely to maintain oil production pause for March as prices climb, sources say
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese automakers and government discuss chip shortage and exports
• China pledges policy support for beef and dairy sectors
• BOJ minions getting set to keep Japan's currency from collapsing:
• BOJ sees boost to inflation from weak yen becoming larger
• Yen hits over two-month high, markets on alert for intervention
• Japan PM vows to act against speculative market moves after yen spike
• BOJ money market data suggests Japan did not intervene in currency market on Friday
• ECB minions developing intricate plan to not do much:
• ECB must be cautious in acting preemptively against uncertainty, Kocher says
• Wall Street indexes close higher ahead of earnings, Fed meeting
• Gold races to $5,100 record peak on frantic safe-haven demand
• Gold miner shares jump as bullion prices hit $5,100/oz record high

Tuesday, 27 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil holds steady as US storm disruption offset by Kazakhstan restart
• US core capital goods orders rise for fifth straight month, boosting economic outlook
• US single-family home prices jump in November, FHFA says
• Bigger profits developing on paper in China:
• Chinese industrial profit rises in 2025, first time in four years
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• A crisis of confidence in the yen looms over Japan PM Takaichi's election gamble
• FX intervention justified if yen moves rapid, Japan business lobby head says
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Europe must overhaul rules or risk economic decline, banking group warns
• S&P 500 closes at new record as investors await big tech earnings, Fed decision
• S&P 500 marks closing record as corporate earnings roll in; Medicare rates hit insurers
• US health insurers slump after 2027 Medicare Advantage payments proposal disappoints
• Gold vaults past $5,200 to record high

Wednesday, 28 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices hover around four-month high, buoyed by weak dollar and US storm
• Trump says value of the dollar is 'great', currency hits 4-year low
• Fed minions hold U.S. interest rates steady, as expected:
• Fed expected to hold rates steady as rate-cut pause begins
• Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees 'elevated' inflation and stabilizing job market
• Key quotes from Fed Chair Powell's news conference
• For Fed, uptick in bank lending may add to case against rate cuts
• Fed almost incidental to market swirl
• Trump predicts interest rates will come down after he announces Fed chair pick
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Chinese buyers and sellers expect gold rush to continue despite record prices
• China soaks up the crude oil glut, but only if the price is right
• BOJ minions thinking about when to hike Japan's interest rates again, also thinking about acting to bail out Japan's currency:
• Weak yen, labour crunch key to BOJ rate hike timing, minutes show
• Japan may hold off on yen intervention for now, ex-BOJ official says
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, ECB minions starting to worry about value of Euro:
• Germany cuts growth forecasts amid slow recovery
• ECB would need to act if euro keeps gaining, says Austria’s central bank governor
• Why the euro's rise to $1.20 is a big deal
• Markets see ‘boring’ reaction to Fed’s pause with U.S. stocks flat
• U.S. stocks end flat as Fed pauses rate cuts; Nasdaq rises as chip stocks rally
• S&P 500 breaches 7,000 points for the first time, lifted by AI optimism
• Gold nears $5,400/oz, rally gains momentum as uncertainties mount

Thursday, 29 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Brent crude tops $70 per barrel on Iran attack concerns
• Oil holds near six-month high as investors track US-Iran tensions
• US factory orders rebound in November on commercial aircraft demand
• Fed minions expected to cut rates later rather than sooner,
• Investors bet on later Fed cuts to support markets after pause
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China reportedly drops rules that sparked property crisis, developer shares surge
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan leans on US backing, tactical silence in war on yen bears
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close down as Big Tech's soaring AI budgets trigger flight
• Gold nears $5,600 as safe-haven rush intensifies; silver blazes past $120
• Copper hits record high above $14,000 as speculators pile in

Friday, 30 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil forceast to hover near $60/bbl, as oversupply outweighs geopolitical risks
• US producer prices rose 0.5% in December, more than expected, on uptick in services inflation
• Fed minions find out who their new boss will be, divided on whether and when to cut U.S. interest rates next:
• Trump taps ex-Fed insider Warsh to lead world's top central bank
• Five things to know about Kevin Warsh, Trump's 'central casting' Fed chair pick
• Fed's Miran assumes Warsh will fill his governor slot at central bank - CNBC
• Fed's Musalem says no more rate cuts needed with policy now at neutral level
• Fed's Bowman still supports rate cuts despite backing pause at recent meeting
• Bigger trouble, insurer bailout developing in China:
• China logs first fiscal revenue drop since 2020 on property slump, weak consumption
• China's surging exports a sign of global metals turmoil
• China's factory activity expected to stall at start of new year: Reuters poll
• China plans $29 billion special bonds to recapitalise insurers, Bloomberg News reports
• BOJ minions counting on jawboning to keep Japan's yen from crashing, get better inflation data:
• Japan's FX market intervention limited to verbal warnings, MoF data shows
• Core inflation in Tokyo slows, still on track to hit BOJ goal
• U.S. stocks end the week in the red as tech sell-off deepens
• Gold and Silver Plunge in Worst Day Since 1980
• How Kevin Warsh just helped blow up world’s hottest trade

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimate of real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 gained a tick, rising to +5.4% from the +5.3% growth it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are both wearing suits attending a press conference in which the next candidate to be the Chair of the Federal Reserve is being introduced. The bear asks 'So what's this guy going to do when he gets the job?’"