Five years ago, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on the surface of Mars. Unlike previous probes and rovers sent to the surface of the Red Planet, Perseverance had a unique potential. The rover was equipped with drilling tools to obtain rock samples from where it traveled within the Jezero Crater and stainless steel tubes in which to store them for transport back to Earth.

The following video depicts the rover's arrival to the surface of Mars on 18 February 2021:

It's the storage of the rock samples that makes the Perseverance rover's mission so unique, because it marks the first time true economic activity has taken place on Mars. The robot rover extracted raw materials, packaged them, then placed them into inventory for the purpose of facilitating their export to Earth. This aspect of the rover's interplanetary trade mission represents the birth of the Martian economy.

As of 18 February 2026, the Perseverance rover has collected 28 rock samples, all stored in their packaging for transportation back to Earth. While most of those samples are still onboard the rover, ten of the samples have been deposited to the 'Three Forks' Sample Depot, where a future mission to Mars would be sent to collect and transport them to Earth.

Except that's not going to happen anytime soon. The original planners behind the Mars Sample Return mission left a pretty big, undefined hole in how that would realistically happen. Their basic concept was essentially a version of South Park's Underwear Gnomes' business plan:

1. Phase 1: Collect rock samples for return to Earth.
2. Phase 2: ?
3. Phase 3: Samples delivered to Earth. Profit!

NASA was very unhappy with the rough concept that had been originally developed for "Phase 2" and directed other engineers to develop more effective and less costly replacement plans to send new landers to Mars' surface, collect the rock samples from their depots where they are being held as inventory, and transport them to Earth.

Here is an animation featuring RocketLab's Mars sample return concept, which gives an idea of the complexity that's involved in a "Phase 2" for a sample return mission:

After more than a year of studies for the mission with little prospect of affordably achieving its goal, the U.S. Congress pulled the plug on the sample return mission as it had been defined on 6 January 2026 by declining to fund it. The appropriations bill funding NASA and cutting off the Mars Sample Return mission ultimately passed with a bipartisan majority of the U.S. Congress on 16 January 2026.

The Mars Perseverance Rover will continue to collect and store additional rock samples as its mission will continue, but exports from Mars will be on hold until the right combination of an achievable return mission at an affordable cost has been realized.

The following chart presents our latest estimates of Mars' GDP by Martian year and quarter:

Mars GDP has been in recession since the first quarter of Martian Year 38 (MY38-Q1), with no new rock samples collected or placed into inventory for export on Mars since March 2025. We anticipate that lack of economic activity will continue through the current Martian quarter (MY38-Q3), which will end on 24 April 2026.

Despite ongoing carnage affecting companies with exposure to AI technology development costs, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) managed to eke out a small gain in the trading week ending on Friday, 13 February 2026. The index closed out the week at 6,836.17, down 96.13 points or 1.39% from the preceding week.

But the market wasn't down evenly among all stocks. Stocks for firms either making big investments in building out their AI-technology infrastructure saw big declines, joined by firms either financing them or at risk of having their businesses disrupted by the implementation of AI technologies.

Meanwhile, firms without that kind of exposure gained, as investors rotated their holdings into small cap and value stocks. If it weren't for that rotation, the index would have fallen further.

Together, these factors put the trajectory of the S&P 500 at the lower end of the range it would be expected to be for investors focusing on the upcoming future quarter of 2026-Q2. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the effect of investors moving away from the big cap tech stocks that have dominated the S&P 500 in the last few years.

The market moving headlines capture some of the rolling whackage, to coin a phrase, afflicting the stocks of companies with high AI exposure risks.

Monday, 9 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• White House sets lower job growth expectations; Fed grapples with same issue
• Oil settles up more than 1% after US urges caution for vessels near Iran
• Fed minions not worrying about dollar, U.S. Treasury Secretary not worrying about Fed's balance sheet:
• Fed's Miran says weaker dollar not affecting monetary policy choices
• Fed's Miran says data suggests Americans aren't shouldering tariff hit
• US Treasury's Bessent says Fed will take its time on balance sheet moves
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China's stock exchanges introduce measures to facilitate refinancing for listed companies
• China's January bank lending seen up on predictable monetary policies: Reuters poll
• China urges banks to curb US Treasuries exposure, Bloomberg News reports
• Growth signs developing in Japan:
• Japan markets set for renewed 'Takaichi trade' after landslide election win
• Yen strengthens against U.S. dollar after Japanese election
• ECB minions sees potential growth opportunity for themselves:
• Europe must prepare for greater global safe haven role, ECB's Kocher says
• Wall Street advances as tech bounces further off of recent losses
• Nasdaq outpaces S&P 500 on AI and software rebound
• Gold reclaims $5,000 as China’s central bank extends gold-buying spree for 15th month

Tuesday, 10 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices steady as Iran-US tensions and US data eyed
• Bond Market Faces Historic Shock As Mag 7 Giants Turn Cash Flow Negative To Fund Capex Tsunami
• US import prices unchanged year-on-year in December
• US labor costs growth cools in fourth quarter
• Is the US in a hiring recession?
• Fed minions shrug off job hiring data, think their monetary policies are perfectly set:
• Fed's Logan: 'cautiously optimistic' that current rate-setting will do the job
• Fed's Hammack says interest rates could be on hold 'for quite some time'
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China tightens market oversight to create 'slow bull' momentum
• Stronger yen developing in Japan after elections:
• Yen extends gains after Takaichi election victory, US data in focus
• ECB minions worried about tariff inflation in Eurozone, bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• Euro zone inflation to take hit from tariffs but rate cuts could offset, ECB economists find
• German auto industry in 'crisis' as investments, jobs move abroad, lobby says
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower after the latest retail sales data
• S&P 500, Nasdaq dip with economic data, earnings in focus
• US brokerages fall as AI-driven rout extends to financials
• Insurance Brokers Extend Monday's Plunge On Fears AI Is Coming For Them Next

Wednesday, 11 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US job growth accelerates, unemployment rate falls to 4.3%
• US employment growth through March revised down by 862,000 jobs
• US job growth surges in January, but labor market far from turning around
• What the U.S. nonfarm payrolls shocker says about the economy
• Oil rises 2% on US–Iran tensions, improved demand
• Fed minions expected to hold interest rates steady for now, to finally get around to dealing with troubled banks, not sure productivity will improve enough to lower inflation from the level they haven't admitted they've been targeting:
• Fed's interest rate pause bolstered by jobs data, but concerns linger
• US Fed to review previously flagged bank shortcomings, memo says
• Fed's Schmid says too soon to expect productivity to fix still-elevated inflation
• Bigger trouble, less deflation developing in China:
• China's auto sales fall at fastest pace in nearly two years in January
• China makes small dent in deflation battle as supply-demand imbalance persists
• BOJ minions laying out their plans for interest rate hikes and inflation slows and yen strengthens:
• BOJ could hike rates as early as March, up to 3 times in 2026, Mizuho executive says
• Japan's wholesale inflation slows, weak yen pressures import costs
• Yen pushes towards best week in a year on 'Buy Japan' talk
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• Where Chinese automakers have gained the most ground in Europe
• EU tariffs on imports of China-made EVs
• Wall Street ends muted after strong jobs data nibbles at Fed rate cut bet
• U.S. stocks end in the red as nonfarm payrolls shock wanes
• Gold trims gains as strong U.S. jobs data dampens rate cut bets
• Real Estate Stocks Crash In Latest "AI Scare Trade"

Thursday, 12 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices edge lower as IEA reduces demand forecast
• A year on from DeepSeek shock, get set for flurry of low-cost Chinese AI models
• US existing home sales drop to more than two-year low in January
• Trump revokes basis of US climate regulation, ends vehicle emission standards
• What the EPA’s flip on climate change means for automakers
• Fed minions expected to deliver rate cuts in mid-year:
• Wall Street brokerages pencil Fed rate cuts in mid 2026
• China fighting deflation, dealing with trade restrictions and crop shortfalls:
• China targets value-driven auto market with new pricing rules, safety standards
• Exclusive: US-China trade detente fuels mothballing of key China tech curbs
• Exclusive: China buyers snap up U.S. sorghum, Australian barley as domestic corn supply tightens
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• US tariffs, Chinese competition weigh on EU trade, data show
• ECB minions gearing up to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged for longer, ready to grow their bailout business:
• ECB to extend its longest interest rate pause since below zero days
• ECB to broaden access to euro backstop, board member says
• Nasdaq ended lower by 2% as Wall Street slid ahead of upcoming inflation data
• For stock market, AI turns from lifting all boats to sinking ships
• Logistics Stocks Crater As "AI Scare Trade" Crushes Sector, Slams Broader Market

Friday, 13 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Headline and core CPI inflation rates cool Y/Y in January
• US consumer prices rise less than expected
• US, Taiwan finalise deal to cut tariffs, boost purchases of US goods
• Oil prices stable as investors weigh OPEC+ supply, US inflation data
• Exclusive: OPEC+ leans towards resumption in oil output increases from April
• Fed minions expected to cut U.S. interest rates in June 2026 after favorable inflation data:
• US rate futures raise odds of Fed easing in June after inflation data
• Fed policy is tighter than thought, inflation not a problem, Miran says
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China January new loans jump but miss forecasts as weak demand persists
• China's new home prices extend decline as weak demand hounds sector
• China's supercharged gold trading looks like 'speculative bubble,' Capital Economics says
• BOJ minions get better inflation data, still planning to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Japan's core inflation likely eased in January for 2nd straight month
• Hawkish Bank of Japan policymaker signals rate-hike chance 'this spring'
• ECB minions say Eurozone minions should have more power over financiers:
• EU body should oversee Europe's biggest asset managers, ECB blog says
• S&P 500 ends up slightly as tech dips, inflation cools
• Wall Street ended near even after the latest CPI report landed

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued projecting the Fed will keep holding the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2) when it gives an 87% probability of a quarter point rate cut. The tool also continues to anticipate the next quarter point reduction will take place on 16 September (2026-Q3). While these expectations have been stable over the past several weeks, what's new this week is that there is now a greater than even probability of a third rate cut in the offing, coming on 9 December (2026-Q4), thanks to the lower-than-expected inflation reported for January 2026.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow toolestimates real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 declined to $3.7% from the +4.2% growth expected in the prior week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear, both wearing suits, watching a roulette wheel come to a stop with the ball falling in a slot labeled 'VALUE STOCKS' as the bear says 'It wasn't going to keep landing on AI'".

Shiraz Robinson is a grad student in data science at the University of Virginia, who came to our attention shortly after the Christmas holiday for his Merry Christmans equations. Unfortunately, that was too late to feature his tradition of blending math formulas and holiday celebrations together, at least for that holiday, but he's back in time for Valentine's Day with another holiday-appropriate math formula!

Here's the equation, suitable for sharing with that special someone who appreciates math as much as you do! And before you ask, yes, it's safe for work....

x² + [y - (x²)¹^/³]² = 1

While the mathematically inclined will immediately interpret this equation of love, others may need to plot it on a graph to truly appreciate its romantic message. We recommend checking out this GeoGebra version because you can play with the parameters d'amour.

Previously on Political Calculations

• Picking the Right Date for Valentine's Day
• The Indisputable Inter-Age Rule for Dating
• Happy Valentine's Day!
• The Maths of Love
• The Most Romantic Shape in Mathematics
• A Formula for Love
• Conway's Game of Love

The employment situation for U.S. teens was little changed in January 2026.

Overall, the seasonally-adjusted employment of Americans Age 16-19 came in at 5,448,000, which is 38,000 lower than the previous month's figure. The employed-to-population ratio for this demographic correspondingly dipped from 30.8% to 30.6% in January 2026.

Dividing the employment data up between younger teens (Age 16-17) and older teens (Age 18-19), reveals a mixed outcome. Younger teens saw their numbers among the employed increase by 35,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1,973,000, representing 20.9% of the Age 16-17 population. Older teens meanwhile saw their employment numbers drop by 69,000 to 3,478,000 in January 2026, falling from 42.9% to 41.6% of the nation's population of 18 and 19 year-olds.

The following pair of charts presents the latest data for teen employment in the U.S., covering the period from January 2021 through January 2026.

For the entire Age 16 and older population, the number of people counted as being employed rose from a seasonally adjusted 163,992,000 in December 2025 to 164,520,000 in January 2026. Working teens make up about 3.3% of the total number of employed people in the United States.

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 11 February 2026.

Image credit: Wanted ad on OpenClipArt. Public domain image.

Estimating median household income in the U.S. is normally a pretty boring affair. Since July 2025 however, we've seen a significant divergence in the available monthly estimates, which suggests something not-so-boring is taking place in that data.

One source of estimates is provided by Motio Research as part of the analytical firm's Household Income Series. Motio Research's estimates are developed from income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for its monthly Current Population Survey.

Political Calculations generates the other series of timely median household income estimates on a monthly basis. Our estimates are produced using aggregate wage and salary income data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and population estimates reported by the Census Bureau each month, which complements the survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research.

Normally, these two sets of estimates come in pretty close to each other, but that changed last year. Starting in July 2025, Motio Research's survey-based estimates notably spiked up above our estimates. What's more, they have maintained that difference through the end of 2025, even as our estimates have plodded along on a much more steady trajectory. This divergence suggests some factor is greatly affecting the survey-based income data, without affecting aggregate earned income data much at all.

There aren't many factors that can have that kind of effect. One that might however points to the Trump administration's efforts to deport the citizens of foreign countries who have been living and working in the United States without fully complying with U.S. laws throughout 2025.

One of the first things the administration did after President Trump was sworn into office on 20 January 2025 was to establish greater control over U.S. borders. That effort has greatly reduced the number of attempted unlawful border crossings. In the months that followed, the Trump administration expanded its efforts to get foreign nationals who unlawfully entered the U.S. or who have outstayed their visas prior to January 2025 to leave.

The administration claims it has successfully removed "nearly three million" such individuals. Over 625,000 of that claimed number is through the Department of Homeland Security's highly visible deportation efforts, while most of the rest has been through "self-deportation", which the Trump administration incentivized with an offer of free travel and a $1,000 cash bonus for foreign nationals to leave if they take the option. At the end of 2025, the administration even temporarily boosted the cash incentive to $3,000 to encourage more self-deportation before the end of the year.

We think these initiatives are affecting the survey-based income data. Assuming that most of those who are being deported or are choosing to self-deport are very low income-earners, their departure from the U.S. is very likely contributing to the apparent boost in median household income captured by Motio Research's analysis. If the incomes of people at the lowest end of the income spectrum are no longer being captured in the survey because they have left the U.S., the median will skew higher in favor of the higher incomes earned by those who are still living and working in the U.S.

At the same time, there would be a small, downward effect on aggregate earned income resulting from the departure of those who had been earning very low incomes. Which is what we see in the data. The aggregate income data shows a slightly slower rate of growth during 2025 than in 2024, which would be consistent with that dynamic.

The following chart shows how Motio Research's and Political Calculations' median household income estimates compare over the four full years from December 2021 through December 2025.

The data suggests the combination of incentives introduced in May 2025 with increased resources for enforcement that were passed by the U.S. Congress in early July 2025 could explain why the two median household income series diverged from July 2025 onward with the patterns we've described.

But would that really affect the survey-based median household income estimates? The answer is yes, given the math behind how medians are calculated as this following video lesson from the Khan Academy demonstrates using a simple example involving golf scores:

Of the two DHS initiatives, the DHS' incentive program for foreign nationals to voluntarily self-deport to receive free travel and a cash reward has been more successful in achieving its objectives. On 21 January 2026, the Trump administration boosted its cash incentive to $2,600 to encourage more such departures.

The standard disclaimer for this kind of analysis is that correlation isn't causation, which is to say there may be factors beyond these contributing to what we observe in the data. Whatever those additional factors might be, they would not appear to be evident in the years preceding these initiatives, which means they would have to have become significant at the same time as the DHS' initiatives. If the hypothesis the DHS' initiatives are behind it doesn't hold, what other factors would be capable of producing the observations we have for the divergence of median household income estimates in 2025?

Image credit: Department of Homeland Security. "Limited Time Offer". Public domain image.