The last two weeks of COVID-19 data from Arizona suggests the state's second wave of cases has peaked and has begun receding.

The origins of that second wave can be traced back to political campaign activities held throughout the political swing state during the two weekends prior to the 3 November 2020 election. These events triggered an explosion in new coronavirus infections well above and beyond what had previously been a slow and steady rise in the number of coronavirus infections following the September 2020 reopening of high exposure risk businesses in the state.

Arizona's COVID-19 cases grew rapidly as new infections spread beyond the participants in these activities. But that began to change after news reports began focusing on the surge of COVID-19 patients at Arizona Intensive Care Units in early December 2020. We think those reports prompted Arizonans to resume social distancing and good hygiene practices they had previously adopted during the state's first COVID-19 wave in the early summer of 2020, which succeeded in slowing the rate of growth of new cases.

But it wasn't until Christmas came and went, and with it, the period where holiday-related shopping activities and social gatherings contributed to the ongoing spread of COVID-19 cases, that the second wave of COVID-19 cases in Arizona crested and began to recede. At least, that's what the data reported over the last two weeks indicates, which the charts showing Arizona's data for newly confirmed cases by sample collection date, daily ICU bed usage, deaths by death certificate date, and new hospital admissions, covering the period from 3 March 2020 through 19 January 2021. Although the lag from exposure to change in trend for each chart is different, the back calculation method for each confirms the timing of significant events for the progression of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in Arizona. [Please click on the preceding links or the following images to access full size versions of the charts.]

Of these charts, only the chart showing Arizona's ICU Bed Usage is fully current. Data for the other three charts are incomplete, where the most recent three weeks shown will be subject to revision during the next few weeks, especially for the most recent dates indicated on the charts.

Notes of Interest

Readers following this series will catch that we're no longer indicating "Event J" on these latest charts. Event J refers to Arizona Governor Doug Ducey's 3 December 2020 restriction on high-attendance events, which proved to have little-to-no impact on the trends for COVID-19 cases in the state.

We are however showing T* to indicate the timing of the Thanksgiving holiday and X* to indicate the Christmas holiday. These events, in and of themselves, had a very noticeable impact on whether Arizonan's sought to be tested for coronavirus infections, which shows up in the chart for confirmed cases. Here, it appears many Arizonans who became sick during these periods delayed seeking COVID-19 tests during the holidays and subsequent weekends, waiting until the following Mondays to be tested.

By contrast, there are slight dips in the data for new hospital admissions and for deaths in the lagging periods associated with the holidays, but these don't greatly deviate from the overall trends.

We've attributed the deceleration and peak in Arizona's second COVID-19 wave to increased social distancing and hygiene practices (standing apart in public, washing hands, etc.). Reports indicate Arizonans have generally maintained a high level of face mask-wearing since the state's first surge in cases in the early summer of 2020, while social distancing and hygiene practices waned. Overall, the evidence suggests social distancing and good hygiene are more effective in avoiding new COVID-19 infections than face masks alone. But we have to emphasize again, the best way to avoid COVID-19 is to avoid contact with political activists.

Unless something changes, we anticipate the next update to this series will confirm Arizona has entered a downward trend for coronavirus infections.

Previously on Political Calculations

We've been covering Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic since the state first became a national hotspot early in the summer of 2020. Here's our previous Arizona coronavirus coverage presented in reverse chronological order, with a sampling of some of our other COVID analysis!

• Arizona Passes Second COVID-19 Peak
• A Tale of Two States and the Coronavirus
• COVID-19 Questions, Answers, and Lessons Learned from Arizona
• The Deadly Intersection of Anti-Police Protests and COVID-19
• 2020 Campaign Events Drive Surge in Arizona COVID Cases
• Arizona Arrives at Critical Junction for Coronavirus Cases
• Arizona To Soon Reach A Critical Junction For COVID-19
• Getting More Than Care from Arizona's COVID ICU Beds
• Arizona's Decentralized Approach to Beating COVID
• Going Back to School with COVID-19
• Arizona Turns Second Corner Toward Crushing Coronavirus
• Arizona's Coronavirus Crest in Rear View Mirror
• The Coronavirus Turns a Corner in Arizona
• A Delayed First Wave Crests in the U.S. and a Second COVID-19 Wave Arrives
• The Coronavirus in Arizona
• A Closer Look at COVID-19 Deaths in Arizona
• The New Epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S.
• How Long Does a Serious COVID Infection Typically Last?
• How Deadly is the COVID-19 Coronavirus?
• Governor Cuomo and the Coronavirus Models
• How Do False Test Outcomes Affect Estimates of the True Incidence of Coronavirus Infections?
• How Fast Could China's Coronavirus Spread?

References

We've continued following Arizona's experience during the coronavirus pandemic because the state's Department of Health Services makes detailed, high quality time series data available, which makes it easy to apply the back calculation method to identify the timing and events that caused changes in the state's COVID-19 trends. This section links that that resource and many of the others we've found useful throughout the coronavirus pandemic.

Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard. [Online Application/Database].

Maricopa County Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). COVID-19 Data Archive. Maricopa County Daily Data Reports. [PDF Document Directory, Daily Dashboard].

Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. Updated 10 September 2020.

COVID Tracking Project. Most Recent Data. [Online Database]. Accessed 15 December 2020.

More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.

From time to time, we like to present a snapshot of what the future for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share looks like. Here is what investors were expecting as of the close of trading on Friday, 15 January 2021, just ahead of the presidential transition in the United States.

As the Operation Warp Speed rollout of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus vaccines continues, and as several state and local governments come to recognize their lockdown policies are not beneficial, we would anticipate the projections of future quarterly dividends will increase as the business outlook improves. But we'll see what happens as the year progresses!

References

CME Group. S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index Futures. [Online database]. Accessed 15 January 2021.

Note

The CME Group's S&P 500 dividend futures are based on futures contracts that cover the period of time through the third Friday of the month ending their indicated quarter, when they expire. By contrast, Standard & Poor reports the amount of dividends paid out per share over the course of a calendar quarter, which is why these two sources often indicate different values.

Two weeks ago, the U.S. stock market seemed taken with the idea of the Biden administration's promise of trillions in new spending for coronavirus pandemic relief, sending the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) to a new record high.

But that changed last week, after the incoming Biden admininstration announced its stimulus package would total $1.9 trillion, which requires rounding upward to count as "trillions". Worse, the details of the proposal indicate that much of these funds will be spent wastefully. The measure also aims to boost the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, which while expected to benefit 1.0 million Americans, would contribute to a projected loss of 1.3 million jobs.

Overall, investors were left with the disappointing impression that the Biden stimulus will do little to improve the nation's economic situation, which increases the uncertainty that it can pass in its current form.

That increase in uncertainty led investors to shift a portion of their forward looking focus of investors from 2021-Q2 inward to the current quarter of 2021-Q1, sending stock prices down from the previous week after the details of the Biden stimulus were announced. The latest update to the alternative futures chart based on the dividend futures-based model shows that shift.

In other news, the minions of the Federal Reserve were especially active in trying to shape future expectations, which for them, means little-to-no change in monetary policy in 2021. Here are the headlines we noted for their market-moving potential during the second week of January 2021.

Monday, 11 January 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil falls on renewed lockdowns, stronger dollar
• U.S. small businesses to get more cash as pandemic loan program re-opens
• Money markets ramp up bets on U.S. interest rate hikes by 2023
• Fed minions
• Fed's Barkin says workers, not inflation, are his focus
• Atlanta Fed's Bostic: U.S. recovery hinging on vaccine, virus control
• Bostic: "Significant" economic challenge if political violence were to persist
• Using China's export growth as a global economic indicator, bigger trouble developing around the world:
• China's export growth seen slowing in December; imports steady: Reuters poll
• Bigger trouble developing elsewhere in the world:
• UK shopper numbers plummet 27.1% as lockdowns impact
• Stocks fall from records, U.S. yields continue to climb
• U.S. bank quarterly profits expected to fall again from pre-COVID levels

Tuesday, 12 January 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. labor market losing speed as COVID-19 spirals out of control
• Brent at 11-month high, yields end flat
• Fed minions really excited about no change in policies:
• Fed won't react if inflation 'tips over' 2%, George says
• KC Fed's George: Vaccine delays among most substantial risks to U.S. recovery
• Fed's Rosengren says U.S. economy could see robust recovery in second half of 2021
• Fed's Rosengren says it will be a while before officials taper asset purchases
• Fed's Mester says monetary and fiscal support needed to avoid lasting economic damage
• Fed's Mester says it's 'premature' to change monetary policy stance
• Bostic: Hopeful Biden administration makes economic inclusion "a centerpiece"
• Fed's Kaplan hopes to begin QE weaning this year (MONDAY)
• Jabs equal jobs? Fed sees possible economic boom if vaccine gets on track
• All Fed banks wanted no change to emergency loan rate last month
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, Japan:
• European Inc earnings seen down 26% in fourth quarter
• Lockdown impact on Germany economy not too severe - Scholz
• Japan's price expectations weaken as pandemic stokes deflation fears
• S&P 500 ends with slightest gain as small caps favored

Wednesday, 13 January 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Gasoline lifts U.S. consumer prices, inflation remains benign
• Fed minions start issuing contradictory statements:
• U.S. economy growing modestly but virus tempers optimism, Fed says
• Fed policymakers push back on QE taper talk
• Fed's Rosengren says U.S. labor markets could stagnate until vaccine is widely available
• Clarida says Fed won't raise rates until its sees 2% inflation
• Fed's Harker says central bank won't let inflation run out of control
• Fed's Bullard sees inflation rising, mum on QE taper
• BOJ minions at odds with themselves, Japanese people:
• BOJ will mull cutting this year's growth forecast: Nikkei
• BOJ seen upgrading next year's growth forecast as stimulus eases pandemic pain: sources
• Japan's households, firms keep piling up cash at record pace as pandemic persists
• ECB minions want to maintain status quo policies, want to regulate Bitcoin:
• ECB's Lagarde pushes back on gloomy forecasts, sticks to recovery outlook (reuters.com)
• ECB's Lagarde calls for regulating Bitcoin's "funny business"
• S&P closes higher with defensive sectors leading gains

Thursday, 14 January 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Biden to unveil plan to pump $1.9 trillion into pandemic-hit economy
• COVID-19, renewed benefits boost U.S. weekly jobless claims
• U.S. business formation tumbles 28.5% in fourth quarter
• U.S. weekly jobless claims jump on COVID-19, renewed supplementary payments
• Chief Fed minion wants to keep QE alive:
• Fed's Powell: 'Not the time' to discuss any change to bond purchases
• Japanese government wants to continue cranking out stimulus packages, China's growth relies on stimulus:
• Japan may consider further stimulus package for COVID-19-hit economy, says minister
• China growth recovery seen quickening in fourth quarter on policy support: Reuters poll
• ECB minions want to stop cranking out stimulus packages:
• ECB's Lane faced rare pushback against latest stimulus package
• Wall Street ends lower as investors weighed stimulus hopes and bleak jobs data
• Analysis: Wall Street cheers on Biden stimulus plan but worries about the cost

Friday, 15 January 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. retail sales fall again in December
• Biden unveils plan to pump $1.9 trillion into pandemic-hit economy
• Joe Biden's Covid stimulus plan may face resistance in Congress
• U.S. manufacturing output accelerates in December
• Fed minions get in groove with "super-easy" policy":
• Fed to stick to super-easy policy amid economic 'lull'
• Fed's Kashkari sees pandemic hampering activity through all of 2021
• Bigger trouble developing in the U.K.:
• UK economy shrinks but might avoid double-dip recession
• Positive signs seen in Japan:
• Japan's exports seen rising for first time in two years, core CPI to drop further: Reuters poll
• ECB minions hint Euro banks' losses are bigger than claimed:
• Euro zone bank damage from pandemic limited so far, ECB's Enria says
• ECB's Stournaras: Many euro zone banks underestimate credit losses from pandemic
• Wall Street closes lower as banks, energy shares tumble

Want a second opinion on what the big news items of the past week were? Barry Ritholtz delivers the positives and negatives he found in the markets and economics news the way only he can!

Also, if you ever need to put a picture together of events that influenced the U.S. stock market, check out the earlier entries of our S&P 500 chaos series. Political Calculations is your curated resource for market history in near-real time!

What do modern superheroes wear under their costumes?

We know that's an odd question, seeing as many superheroes in the comics follow the tradition of wearing their underwear on the outside of their outfits. However, Katherine P. Rutherford's 2004 invention of a Ballistic Resistant Body Covering would appear to provide a new reason to reconsider the question.

At least, that's what the IIE team cannot help but think after reading the description of the preferred embodiment in U.S. Patent 6,745,394, which we also canot help but think is clearly meant to appeal to any current day superhero (wink, wink):

In use, the device 10 is worn on the body of the user and the various portions coupled together. The device protects the body from ballistic missiles over a large portion of the body including the torso, groin and neck area.

As to a further discussion of the manner of usage and operation of the present invention, the same should be apparent from the above description. Accordingly, no further discussion relating to the manner of usage and operation will be provided.

Of course, the thing that really sells Rutherford's invention can be found in Figure 1 of the patent, where our well-protected prospective superhero oozes with enough superconfidence to project the phrase: "Well, hello there!"

Rutherford leaves it to the prospective wearer to determine how her invention should be worn. Whether that's over or under your regular costume is entirely up to you.

Inventions in Everything: The Archives

Ready to sample more of the most creative designs and patents the Inventions in Everything team has explored? Our archives celebrate inventions ranging from the whimsical to the inspired in reverse chronological order!

• Inventions in Everything: Bulletproof Underwear
• Inventions in Everything: A Blazing Trumpet Performance
• Inventions in Everything: Slanty Toilets
• Inventions in Everything: The COVID Candy Chute
• Inventions in Everything: Tomatoes on the Run
• Inventions in Everything: Serving Coffee By Drone
• Inventions in Everything: HM Flying Saucer
• Inventions in Everything: Airbags for Mobile Phones
• "Similar to Fireworks, But a Lot Cooler"
• Inventions in Everything: Dinosaur Jaw Pliers
• Inventions in Everything: Oddly Shaped Objects That Roll Smoothly
• Inventions in Everything: Has the Time of the Isolator Arrived?
• Beauty Within An Eight Millimeter Square
• Inventions in Everything: Opening Doors in a Virus Filled World
• Inventions in Everything: PAPR Made With Truck Parts
• Inventions in Everything: Coffee Cups for Astronauts
• Inventions in Everything: Mechanical Trees
• Inventions in Everything: Space Age Baby Delivery
• Rediscovering Nature: A Biomimetic Clock
• Chairs to Haunt Your Dreams This Hallow's Eve
• Ten Million Inventions In Everything!
• Inventions in Everything: Shoes for Defying the Laws of Physics
• Inventions in Everything: Treadmills Inside Your Shoes
• Inventions in Everything: Makeup Applicator for Cat Eyes
• Inventions in Everything: Optical Illusions to Enhance Safety
• Inventions in Everything: The Future of Ironing
• Inventions in Everything: The Sock Slider
• Inventions in Everything: A Cold, Refreshing, CRISPR Beer
• Inventions in Everything: World's Brightest Flashlight and Glow-in-the-Dark Paint
• Inventions in Everything: On Track for Ten Million Patents!
• Happy Holographic Halloween!
• Elevators that Go Up, Down, Left and Right....
• Inventions in Everything: Ice Cream Pint Lock
• Slow Dance
• Inventions in Everything: Training Device for Beer Pong
• Inventions in Everything: The Flask from the Future
• Inventions in Everything: The Music Playing Bag of Nacho Cheese Flavored Tortilla Chips
• Inventions in Everything: Floating Beer Pong Table
• Inventions in Everything: The Tree Transplanter
• Inventions in Everything: Stopping the Refrig-a-raider
• Inventions in Everything: Popping the Top on National Beer Day
• Inventions in Everything: Fishing for Boats
• Inventions in Everything: Suction Tube for Reverse Axial Withdrawal
• Inventions in Everything: The Unwelcome Mat
• Hubcaps to Replace Snow Chains
• Young AIs in Love
• Inventions in Everything: Rolling on the Vinyl Tracks
• Inventions in Everything: Drilling Square Holes
• The Singing Stones
• Inventions in Everything: The Future of Furniture
• Inventions in Everything: The WiFi Wig
• Inventions in Everything: Keeping Dog Time
• Drying Clothes With Ultrasound
• The Future of Fireworks
• Harvesting Water from the Air
• Inventions in Everything: Automated Window Blinds
• Inventions in Everything: Flying Snoopy!
• Inventions in Everything: Texting Your Dog a Treat
• Houseplants from Avatar
• The Kitchen Unitaskers You Cannot Live Without
• Inventions in Everything: The Baby Cage
• Self-Carving Pumpkins
• Inventions in Everything: The Alarm Clock of Damocles
• Death to Mosquitoes!
• Reinventing the Axe
• Automated Zen
• The Ultimate Swiss Army Knife You Can Buy Today
• Inventions in Everything: The Toilet Snorkel
• There Is No Great Snowplow Stagnation
• The Ultimate in Rust Proofing
• Billionaire Drinks Sewage: Video
• Inventions in Everything: Antiterrorism Barriers
• Wrapping Your Bike Around a Tree... On Purpose
• Inventions in Everything: Geothermal Beer Coolers
• Inventing a Better Snowshoe
• Inventions in Everything: The Salmon Cannon
• Powdered Wine: Just Add Water!
• Fail: The Newest Innovation in Ice Cream
• Unlimited Virtual Legos
• Inventions in Everything: The Ultimate Turkey Blind
• Inventions in Everything: Turning Cans Into Sippy Cups
• Inventions in Everything: Anatomical Lego Figures
• It's Not What You Think....
• Inventions in Everything: Soup Bowl Attraction
• Inventions in Everything: Making Life More Difficult
• Inventions in Everything: The Oreo Separator Machine
• Air Shark!
• Markets in Everything: Stormtrooper Motorcycle Suit
• The Bike That Rides You
• One Inventor's Stick-to-itiveness
• High Five!
• Inventions for Everything
• The Best Mousetrap Ever
• An Invention for the True Wine Connoisseur
• Three of Ten Things You Don't Need on St. Patrick's Day
• The Future Just Got a Lot Cooler Than It Used to Be
• The Worst Piece of Design Ever Done
• The Magic Marker of the Future
• Coming Soon, to a Gym Near You!

Two months ago, we were concerned the global economy was teetering on a double dip recession.

Now, armed with measurements of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured monthly at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory through December 2020, we can confirm the double dip has arrived. The rate at which CO₂ is accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere decreased in December, following two months of upticks indicating a recovery in the global economy.

You can see the reversal for yourself in this chart showing the trailing twelve month average of the year-over-year change of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, which provides a general overview of this metric since January 1960.

The December 2020 downtick follows the COVID-19 lockdowns imposed by several governments in Europe beginning in September 2020, which have continued through the present.

Perhaps more notable is what the data does not yet show. The data through December 2020 does not show the impact of the economically harmful lockdowns imposed by states like California in the U.S., and it does not yet show the effects of China's latest large-scale lockdowns and in Japan.

Lower CO₂ levels related to the coronavirus pandemic may be offset by considerably colder temperatures the northern hemisphere. The colder-than-usual weather is driving increased coal burning in China and greater natural gas consumption elsewhere, which will mask some of the decline from reduced economic activity caused by COVID lockdowns.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our series quantifying the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Earth's economy, presented in reverse chronological order.

• Global Economy Enters Double Dip Coronavirus Recession
• Global Economy Teeters on Double Dip Recession
• World GDP Lost Due to Coronavirus Reaches $12 Trillion
• Cumulative World GDP Loss From Coronavirus Pandemic Tops $11 Trillion
• Estimates of World GDP Lost to the Global Coronavirus Recession
• Finding Human Fingerprints in Atmospheric CO2
• The Coronavirus and Atmospheric CO2 in April 2020
• The Coronavirus, Atmospheric CO2, and GDP