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Using our tool for reckoning the odds of recession, we find that the 1-quarter rolling averages for the Federal Funds Rate and the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Constant Maturity Treasuries gives the probability of recession beginning sometime in the next twelve months at 48.9%.
Using the daily discounted Treasury yield curve data, which the tool points to as a fairly good proxy for the 1-quarter averaged data (and which can easily be found on the web), we find the odds to be slightly higher, now at 50.1%.
Labels: recession forecast
Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:
ironman at politicalcalculations
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