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31 March 2010

Real GDP vs Climbing Limo Forecast vs Modified Limo Forecast, 2001-Q1 Through 2009-Q1 Now that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has finalized its GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2009, we can now officially project where the nation's inflation-adjusted GDP will be for the first quarter of 2010.

Using our Modified Limo method of forecasting real GDP, we anticipate that the United States' inflation-adjusted GDP for 2010-Q1 will be within 2.0% of $13,276.5 billion, as expressed in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars.

That marks an increase from the BEA's recorded final estimate for GDP in 2009-Q4 of $13,149.5 billion 2005 chained U.S. dollars. The low end for our forecast range corresponds to a real GDP of $13,011 billion, while the upper end corresponds to a real GDP of $13,542 billion.

If you'd like us to narrow that range down, we find a nearly 70% chance of real GDP falling into a range between $13,136 and $13,417 billion chained 2005 U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2010.

Going back to our projection of where the U.S. inflation-adjusted GDP would be finalized for the fourth quarter of 2009, we came within 1.2% of the final figure of $13,149.5 billion chained 2005 U.S. dollars. We had anticipated that the final GDP figure for 2009-Q4 would be $12,996.9 billion in our earlier projection based upon the finalized value for real GDP in 2009-Q3.


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