Unexpectedly Intriguing!
04 April 2016

For the last time, let's recall the prediction we made four weeks ago, back on 7 March 2016, when we explained why were going to discard our standard model's projections of a rough ride for the S&P 500 for the rest of March 2016:

That's also true for the projections for the remainder of March 2016, which suggest that stock prices are in for a rough ride before recovering. However, that apparent trajectory is really an artifact of the historic stock prices we use in our model to project their future trajectory, and as such, it is an echo of past volatility, which means that our model will be less accurate until that echo subsides....

So can we predict where stock prices are likely to go next?

Of course we can!... Provided investors keep their forward-looking focus on 2016-Q4 in making their current day investing decisions, we can expect that the S&P 500 will continue to track largely sideways (plus or minus 3% of their current value of just under 2000), through the end of March 2016.

Mathematically, with a base value of the S&P 500 of 2000, that plus or minus three percent means that we were predicting that the S&P 500 would range between 1940 and 2060 from 7 March 2016 through 31 March 2016.

The chart below visualizes how well our prediction actually fared:

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2016Q1 - Standard Model with Override Prediction from 7 March 2016 through 31 March 2016 - Snapshot on 1 April 2016

We'll have some more comments about our prediction at the end of this post. In the meantime, for historical reference, here are what we considered to be the main market driving news events for the fifth week of March 2016.

31 March 2016 marked the end of our 7 March 2016 prediction for the range in which the S&P 500 would close on each remaining day of the month. Overall, we were right on 17 out of 18 days and on the only day we were wrong (thanks, Janet!), we missed the mark by 3.95 points, on a day where the market closed at 2063.95.

We used to keep track of our prediction accuracy, but we stopped after doing it for three years back in 2011. Keeping track that is, not being impossibly right so often. Even with our policy of not including near misses like the one described above - we've never kept score the way that they do in games of horseshoes, or for that matter, the Wall Street guru game.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.