Unexpectedly Intriguing!
02 May 2016

"As expected", is the answer to the question "How did the S&P 500 behave during Week 4 of April 2016?"

But for that to be expected, you would have to have known the following:

  1. Investors entered the week mainly focused on the distant future quarter of 2016-Q4.
  2. The Fed, who had a two-day meeting that would end in the middle of the week, was unmotivated to surprise markets by changing the expectation for when it might next hike short term U.S. interest rates.
  3. The expectations for the dividends of large market cap stocks announcing earnings during the week were highly unlikely to change.

Based on those three factors, the most likely outcome for the week would be that it would end as it began, with investors setting today's stock prices in accordance with their expectations for the future quarter where they've fixed their attention: 2016-Q4.

And so it did:

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2016Q2 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 29 April 2016

For historical reference, here is what we identified as the week's market moving headlines, or as was the case, the market's non-moving headlines, along with our comments.

On the whole, U.S. stock prices, as measured by the daily closing value of the S&P 500, behaved as expected during the fourth week of April 2016. With no compelling reason to shift their forward-looking focus away from 2016-Q4, nor any significant change in the expectations for future dividends, and absent any significant speculative noise that might cause stock prices to temporarily deviate away from the trajectory they are on, the week ended as it began. The S&P 500 is continuing to generally pace the trajectory associated with what we should expect if investors are focused on 2016-Q4.

And until one of those things changes, we can continue to expect very little volatility in the market through the end of the quarter, which would be mostly flat until June, after which we would seem to be set to see some fairly mild erosion in stock prices.

But then, that part of the future hasn't locked in quite yet, so it will be subject to change!...

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.