Unexpectedly Intriguing!
April 21, 2016

We have been periodically tracking the statistical trends for the number of new jobless claims in the United States, at both the national level and also at the subnational level. Today, we're going to update what we're seeing in the data.

Starting with the national data, we see that overall, the current trend for new jobless claims, which has steadily held since the end of June 2014, coinciding with the widespread fall of oil prices, has generally meant 300 to 400 fewer new jobless claims being filed each week.

United States: Residual Distribution of Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Filed Weekly from 31 May 2014 through 9 April 2016

But that falling trend hasn't been shared everywhere. Looking at the eight states whose economies include significant, high-cost oil production operations, we see what has been a nearly flat trend, as the economic benefits from lower oil prices, which have reduced the number of layoffs in other industries, have been largely offset by increased layoffs from the oil industry.

Fracking States: Residual Distribution of Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Filed Weekly from 31 May 2014 through 9 April 2016

Since October 2015, we see that the number of layoffs have skewed above the overall trend line for these eight states (Colorado, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming), but not so much as yet to clearly indicate a break in the overall trend.

By contrast, we did observe a break in trend for the other 42 states from late November 2015 into early January 2016, which appears to have since dissipated, as the overall falling trend of 400-500 fewer new jobless claims being filed each week appears to have resumed.

Non-Fracking States: Residual Distribution of Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Filed Weekly from 31 May 2014 through 9 April 2016

We previously observed that much of the break in trend took place in states whose economies include significant contributions from the agriculture and finance industries, which have since returned to their overall trend.

Which brings us to the one state where strange things are happening with the data it has been reporting each week: California.

California: Residual Distribution of Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Filed Weekly from 31 May 2014 through 9 April 2016

We've revisited our entire analysis for this state, where the data reported since January 2016 suggests that California's Economic Development Department experienced significant difficulty processing initial unemployment insurance claims being filed from the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in November 2015 through early January 2016, which we can confirm by the statistically improbable large swings in the number of claims being processed each week during this time.

California's Economic Development Department has previously had significant issues with processing claims, which made the news over a year ago before the department's staff seemed to overcome its problems, but what we see in the data being reported each week indicates that they had a recurrence, which appears to have continued through 2 April 2016.

And because those newer problems haven't been reported anywhere else in the media that we can find, means that instead of just analyzing information, we're actually breaking news that no other news organization has reported!

What can we say? We scoop the entire mainstream media from time to time!

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations



blog advertising
is good for you

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Applications

This year, we'll be experimenting with a number of apps to bring more of a current events focus to Political Calculations - we're test driving the app(s) below!

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Visitors since December 6, 2004:

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button

JavaScript

The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links
Charities We Support
Recommended Reading
Recommended Viewing
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Archives
Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.