Unexpectedly Intriguing!
December 19, 2017

Are you ready to peer into the future for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share in 2018?

If so, you've come to the right place! The following chart shows the snapshot we took of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Index Dividend Futures Quotes for each quarter in 2018 on 18 December 2017, and for good measure, compares it to a snapshot we took of similar dividend futures presented by the Chicago Board of Exchange a year earlier showing what the future for 2017 was expected to be at the same relative point of time in that year. (The CBOE retired their implied forward dividend futures on 1 May 2017).

Snapshots of the Future for S&P 500 Quarterly Dividends per Share, 2017 vs 2018

2017 was the best year for dividends on record for the S&P 500. 2018 looks to be stronger, but then, that's a primary reason why stock prices have generally grown so strongly throughout the year.

One thing to note is that these are dividend futures, which do not match the quarterly dividends reported by Standard and Poor after the end of each calendar quarter. That is because of what we describe as the term mismatch between the two, where the indicated dividends shown in the chart above are tied to futures contracts that run from the end of the third Friday of the month in the preceding quarter through the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter, while the values reported by S&P occur solely within each calendar quarter.

The difference between the two are most evident in the data for Q4 and Q1, where the dividend futures for Q4 tend be understated and the values for Q1 tend be overstated when compared with the values reported by S&P, which is due to larger dividend payments that are paid out to shareholders in the final weeks of each year. To give you an idea of how much that adjustment can be, we anticipate that the S&P 500's quarterly dividends in 2017-Q4 will come in around $12.70 per share when S&P reports them in the new year.

Labels: , ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.