Unexpectedly Intriguing!
February 19, 2019

After last week's failed breakout attempt, the second week of February 2019 saw the level of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) broke out above our redzone forecast range on Friday, 15 February 2019, boosted by the speculation of improved prospects for a trade deal being reached between the U.S. and China.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q1 - Standard Model with Annotated Redzone Forecast - Snapshot on 15 Feb 2019

The other big news of the week is that there seems to be a growing consensus at the Fed for no further rate hikes in 2019. In fact, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool is suggesting that investors are giving small, but increased odds of a rate cut in December 2019, though the much greater probability at this point of time is for rates to be held steady at today's Federal Funds Rate target range of 2.25% to 2.50%.

CME Group FedWatch Tool Rate Hike Probabilities - Snapshot 2019-02-15

Here's the other headlines of the week that stood apart from the regular noise from the news cycle....

Monday, 11 February 2019
Tuesday, 12 February 2019
Wednesday, 13 February 2019
Thursday, 14 February 2019
Friday, 15 February 2019

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz scanned the week's markets and economy-related news to identify the positives and negatives, finding six of each, though we wonder if one of the positives (flat inflation) is really a negative....

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