Unexpectedly Intriguing!
April 29, 2019

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was buoyed up to reach new record heights during the fourth week of April 2019, closing the week at a new all-time record high value of 2,939.88.

Overall, we find the level of the S&P 500 is consistent with investors focusing on the distant future quarter of 2020-Q1, which in our dividend futures-based model of how stock prices work, covers the period from 21 December 2018 through 20 March 2020, coinciding with the dividend futures contracts for that quarter.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q2 - Standard Model with Annotated Redzone Forecast - Snapshot on 26 Apr 2019

The expectations for dividends to be paid out during this time also got a boost during the past week, rising from $14.55 per share to $14.65 per share according to the CME Group's estimates for S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures.

On the whole, aside from the better than expected economic and earnings news that boosted stock prices during the week, it was relatively quiet with the Fed's minions muzzled by a news blackout period ahead of its next two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 30 April-1 May 2019, the news from which may affect investor expectations for potential future interest rate cuts.

Speaking of which, the CME Group's Fedwatch Tool indicates that investors are currently betting on a quarter point cut in the Federal Funds Rate taking place during 2018-Q4.

We'll find out later this week. In the meantime, here are the notable market-moving headlines we flagged during the fourth week of April 2019.

Monday, 22 April 2019
Tuesday, 23 April 2019
Wednesday, 24 April 2019
Thursday, 25 April 2019
Friday, 26 April 2019

Barry Ritholtz found six positives and six negatives for U.S. markets and the economy in his weekly bigger picture overview of the week's events.

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