Unexpectedly Intriguing!
12 August 2019

The last two weeks have been especially volatile for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), where as of the close of trading on Friday, 9 August 2019, our dividend futures-based model describes the level of the S&P 500 as being consistent with investors splitting their forward-looking focus between the future quarters of 2019-Q4 and 2020-Q1.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q3 - Standard Model - Snapshot on 9 Aug 2019

The primary driver of the market's volatility over that time has been investors shifting their attention back and forth between these two future quarters. Those shifts have themselves been driven by changing investor expectations for the upcoming timing of future Fed rate cuts and the potential resumption of a new round of quantitative easing.

As of Friday, 9 August 2019, here are investor expectations as provided by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool for what the Fed will do with the Federal Funds Rate at its Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming meeting dates:

CME Group FedWatch Tool Probabilities of Federal Funds Rate Changing at Future FOMC Meeting Dates, Snapshot on 09 August 2019

These probabilities indicate investors are expecting three quarter point rate cuts, in 2019-Q3, 2019-Q4, and 2020-Q1, with the most uncertainty around that last future quarter.

Here are the first week of August 2019's market-moving headlines:

Monday, 5 August 2019
Tuesday, 6 August 2019
Wednesday, 7 August 2019
Thursday, 8 August 2019
Friday, 9 August 2019

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz put together a short list with an equal number of positives and negatives in the week's economics and market-related news.

Labels: ,

About Political Calculations

Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:

ironman at politicalcalculations.com

Thanks in advance!

Recent Posts

Stock Charts and News

Most Popular Posts
Quick Index

Site Data

This site is primarily powered by:

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

CSS Validation

Valid CSS!

RSS Site Feed

AddThis Feed Button


The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.

Other Cool Resources

Blog Roll

Market Links

Useful Election Data
Charities We Support
Shopping Guides
Recommended Reading
Recently Shopped

Seeking Alpha Certified

Legal Disclaimer

Materials on this website are published by Political Calculations to provide visitors with free information and insights regarding the incentives created by the laws and policies described. However, this website is not designed for the purpose of providing legal, medical or financial advice to individuals. Visitors should not rely upon information on this website as a substitute for personal legal, medical or financial advice. While we make every effort to provide accurate website information, laws can change and inaccuracies happen despite our best efforts. If you have an individual problem, you should seek advice from a licensed professional in your state, i.e., by a competent authority with specialized knowledge who can apply it to the particular circumstances of your case.