Unexpectedly Intriguing!
25 May 2021

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup is an iconic American consumer good that's been around over 123 years. That means we have over 123 years worth of monthly price data on how much consumers have paid for a standard 10.75 ounce can whenever grocers have put it on sale on their store shelves.

But we're not going to revisit that whole history today. Instead, we're going to look at the price trends for Campbell's Tomato Soup since January 2000, where we really want to focus on the months of the Coronavirus Recession. The following chart shows the individual price per can and the trailing twelve month average Americans have paid for a can of Campbell's iconic soup from January 2000 through May 2021.

Unit Price per Can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup at Discounted Sale Pricing, January 2000 - May 2021

Through May 2021, the trailing twelve month average of Campbell's condensed tomato soup has risen to $0.96 per can, up 13% from an average price of $0.86 per can in February 2020 (Month 0 for the coronavirus recession).

Much of that increase has been driven by higher demand, where retailers have been much less likely to discount their sale prices over the last 15 months. The only exception to that came in January and February 2021, when the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in many parts of the U.S. prompted a temporary shift in consumer demand in favor of Campbell's Chicken Noodle Soup, which many believe helps relieve cold, flu, and COVID symptoms. That shift in consumer demand led to a relative oversupply of tomato soup on retailers' store shelves, which in turn, prompted them to discount their prices to sell relatively more tomato soup during these months.

With the decline in COVID cases since January 2021, that relative imbalance in consumer demand has ebbed. Discounted sales have ended, but sale prices for tomato soup remain elevated.

The potential for the escalated prices of tomato soup to continue is high, with higher inflation having taken hold in the U.S. in recent months. The test for that will come this summer as seasonal demand for tomato soup declines, where the absence of discounted sale pricing would effectively lock in the pandemic price increase.

Just for fun, we'll close by pointing to exactly where the price data in the chart during the coronavirus pandemic comes from! Follow the links below to see the advertisements from the indicated retailers seeking to sell Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup during the months of the Coronavirus Pandemic Recession:

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