Political Calculations
Unexpectedly Intriguing!
14 July 2026
Campbell's Tomato Soup at Walmart on 20 February 2026 with digital shelf price tags photo by Ironmanon Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/8CYqITqdmqI

The return of warm weather marks the end of soup season, and in 2026, it also marked the end of the big discounts that several grocery selling retailers were offering for Campbell's Tomato Soup in April.

Since then, prices for Campbell's second-best selling soup have risen at four of the ten major national and regional grocery stores and retailers that we track. Even so, the rolling twelve-month average price of a 10.75 fluid ounce can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup declined in the three months since our previous snapshot, from $1.15 to $1.12 per can.

That's a consequence of the higher prices of early 2025 being replaced by the much lower sale prices of early 2026 in the trailing year average. Even though prices at some retailers have risen since our last snapshot, they are generally lower than what we recorded in early 2025.

Here are the prices we observed at our ten purveyors of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup and how they've changed since our April 2026 snapshot:

  • Walmart: Increase of $0.28 to $1.28 (+28.0%).
  • Amazon: Increase of $0.28 to $1.28 (+28.0%).
  • Kroger: Increase of $0.50 to $1.50 (+50.0%).
  • Walgreens: Unchanged at $1.99 (0.0%).
  • Target: Unchanged at $1.29 (0.0%).
  • CVS: Unchanged at $2.49 (0.0%).
  • Albertsons: Unchanged at $1.49 (0.0%).
  • Food Lion: Increase of $0.25 to $1.25 (+25.0%).
  • H-E-B: Unchanged at $1.24 (0.0%).
  • Meijer: Unchanged at $1.29 (0.0%).

The following chart presents the price history of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup in the 21st century, from January 2000 through July 2026:

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 2000 - July 2026

Since 2022, the price of $1.00 has become the floor for an iconic can Campbell's Tomato Soup. Before 2022, that price level was the ceiling. For more history, you can find our collected price data extending back to January 1898 here.

Image Credit: Three Campbell's Tomato Soup Mugs on a Reflective Surface photo by Tina Morris on Unsplash.

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23 April 2026
Campbell's Tomato Soup at Walmart on 20 February 2026 with digital shelf price tags photo by Ironmanon Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/8CYqITqdmqI

The rolling twelve-month average price of a 10.75 fluid ounce can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup continued falling in the three months since our last monthly price history update.

In that January 2026 snapshot, the rolling average was $1.21 per can, which was down from an average of $1.29 per can in September 2025. In mid-April 2026, that twelve-month average has fallen further, dropping to $1.15 per can.

The falling prices during this period, which coincides with peak "soup season" in the United States, also coincide with deep discounts for consumers at major grocery selling retailers. Here are the prices available to U.S. consumers in April 2026 at ten of the nation's largest grocery-selling retailers and how they've changed since our January 2026 snapshot:

  • Walmart: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.07 (-6.5%)
  • Amazon: $1.00/each, unchanged
  • Kroger: $1.00/each, unchanged
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.29/each, decrease of $0.10 (-7.2%)
  • CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
  • Albertsons: $1.29/each, increase of $0.20 (+15.5%)
  • Food Lion: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.25 (-20.0%)
  • H-E-B: $1.24/each, unchanged
  • Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

Not all these prices carry equal weight. It would not surprise us to learn that Walmart is the largest single purveyor of Campbell's tomato soup in the U.S., followed by Kroger-affiliated grocery stores. The dominance in sales of these "Big Two" gives more weight to their prices as being more representative of what most Americans pay on average for a can of Campbell's tomato soup.

The falling rolling average price of Campbell's tomato soup is the result of substantial discounts at these major retailers since September 2025. During this period, an iconic 10.75 fluid ounce "Number 1" size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup has been priced at just $1.00 per can at these biggest sellers.

The following chart presents the price history of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup in the 21st century, from January 2000 through April 2026. If you want to see more history, you can find our collected price data extending back to January 1898 here:

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 2000 - April 2026

Before 2022, it was rare to ever find a can of Campbell's tomato soup priced higher than $1.00 per can. However, because of the high inflation unleashed by the Biden administration, it has been rare since 2022 to find a Campbell's tomato soup on sale for less than $1.00 per can.

But will this sale price hold now that soup season is ending? We'll check back in on the latest prices for our next update in three months.

Image Credit: Campbell's Tomato Soup at Walmart on 20 February 2026 with digital shelf price tags photo by Iron Man on Unsplash.

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22 January 2026
Cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup on sale at a Kroger-family grocery store on 9 January 2026 photo on Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/9TcO0yQEh6c

In the last twelve months, the rolling twelve-month average price of an iconic can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup went from $1.28 in January 2025 and hovered around that level through September 2025, but has since fallen to $1.21 per can as of January 2026. The price has fallen as several grocery stores and grocery-selling retailers have offered significantly discounted sale prices in recent months.

Roughly speaking, the average price in January 2026 is about twelve times what a can of Campbell's Tomato Soup cost when it was first launched into the American marketplace in January 1898. At ten cents a can, it held at or near that price all the way up through the 1960s and into the early 1970s. At least, until President Nixon's price controls on food in August 1971 were lifted in April 1974, after which its price exploded as it caught up to that era's high inflation. Inflation similar to that unleashed by the Biden administration in 2021.

Here are the retail prices available to U.S. consumers in January 2026 at ten of the nation's largest grocery-selling retailers and how they've changed since our October 2025 snapshot:

  • Walmart: $1.07/each, decrease of $0.17 (-13.7%)
  • Amazon: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.26 (-20.6%)
  • Kroger: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.50 (-33.3%)
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
  • CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
  • Albertsons: $1.29/each, decrease of $0.40 (-23.7%)
  • Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
  • H-E-B: $1.24/each, decrease of $0.07 (-5.3%)
  • Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

These large price discounts are surprising. 2025 is a year in which tariffs were expected to contribute to inflation in the U.S. economy. For Campbell's Tomato Soup, that factor would have affected the price of the steel used to produce the soup cans for which The Campbell's Company (NYSE: CPB) has become famous, since they would be affected by the Trump administration's 25% tariff on imported steel.

But instead of increasing, the average price of a can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup remained largely steady until the last quarter of 2025. The Campbell's Company adjusted to the increased cost pressure from higher steel prices by seeking efficiencies throughout its production and supply chains. The end result of their efforts helped keep prices from rising as they might otherwise have in the absence of their cost reduction initiatives.

Our first chart presents our full price history for the retail price American consumers have encountered when shopping for a can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup from January 1898 through January 2026:

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - January 2026

Since this chart spans an order of magnitude increase in the price of Campbell's Tomato Soup over its history, we have a chart showing how its price has changed over the last 128 years using a logarithmic scale, which makes it easier to see percentage changes over time.

Political Calculations has run a regular series about Campbell's Tomato Soup and how much it costs since 2015. We chose to research and flesh out the entire price history of this iconic product because it provides a unique window into how the effects of inflation have affected American consumers over time. What's more, you can follow this link to find our most recent coverage, which if its more than three months after this article was first posted, will be much more recent than this article!

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup is uniquely useful for assessing how inflation has affected prices over time because it has been consistently sold in grocery stores and supermarkets across the United States in the same size can ever since its introduction in January 1898. The company has sold its highly popular soup in a Number 1 (Picnic) size can that holds 10.75 fluid ounces throughout the product's history. Because it has, the effect of inflation on its cost to consumers cannot be hidden through marketing practices like shrinkflation, in which producers reduce the quantity of their product while keeping its shelf price the same.

It's also more than just the cost of soup on its own. Its cost includes the equipment to condense the soup by removing water without removing flavor so it can be cooked at consumer homes, which was vital to its commercial success. The steel and other materials that goes into the cans in which its packaged and preserved. The paper and ink for its trademark labeling. The specially developed tomatoes that make the base of the soup and the spices that flavor it. The fuel and vehicles it takes to transport it from where it's made to everywhere it's sold.

And of course, the ingenuity and labor of everyone from John T. Dorrance who invented the technology to make affordable condensed soups in 1897 to all the people who worked to make, distribute, sell, or who have invested their time and effort to improve and make it more efficiently in all the years since.

Because all these things go into making each of the 85 million cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup that American consumers buy every year, it also provides a window into seeing how things like steel tariffs affect how its price changes. Or how its price changes with recessions or pandemics.

Our analysis and coverage of those stories, and much more, are presented in chronological order in the following list of our articles on the topic of America's second-most popular soup.

Image credit: Cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup on sale at a Kroger-family grocery store on 9 January 2026 photo by Iron Man on Unsplash.

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22 October 2025

Fall marks the return of soup season in the United States, as cooling temperatures put hot dishes like Campbell's Tomato Soup back on Americans' home menu.

This year's fall is remarkable because the trailing twelve month average sale price of an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup declined by a small amount. Thanks to discounted sale prices at several grocery-selling retailers in recent months, American consumers are seeing lower prices than they did a year ago.

This outcome suggests the Campbell's Company's (NYSE: CPB) CFO Carrie Anderson's efforts to rein its costs to minimize the impact of new tariffs are seeing some success. In its most recent quarterly report, the company indicated its "adjusted gross profit margin decreased 90 basis points to 30.5% mainly driven by cost inflation and other supply chain costs inclusive of a moderate tariff impact, partially offset by supply chain productivity improvements, favorable net price realization and the benefits from cost savings initiatives". The cost savings initiatives have allowed Campbell's to minimize changes to the prices consumers see.

Here are the results for our October 2025 survey of prices for Campbell's Tomato Soup and ten major grocery stores and grocery-selling retailers, along with how these prices have changed since our July 2025 snapshot:

  • Walmart: $1.24/each, decrease of $0.02 (-1.6%)
  • Amazon: $0.97/each, decrease of $0.29 (-23.0%)
  • Kroger: $1.00/each, decrease of $0.50 (-33.3%)
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
  • CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
  • Albertsons: $1.49/each, decrease of $0.20 (-11.8%)
  • Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
  • H-E-B: $1.24/each, decrease of $0.07 (-5.3%)
  • Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

The biggest discounts are at Amazon and Kroger. Meanwhile, Walmart has lowered its regular price for Campbell's Tomato Soup to $1.24 per can, while H-E-B appears to have matched Walmart's price with its latest discounted sale price.

Here's our chart tracking the price per can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup from January 2000 through October 2025.

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - October 2025

And to think, when Campbell's Tomato Soup first rolled out to U.S. grocery store shelves in 1898, a single can cost $0.10. In 2000, a single can cost $0.34 on average. Flash forward to today's price and these figures rather put the inflation of the 21st century into perspective.

Video credit: Campbell's Tomato Soup Old Time Radio Advertisement posted by JedwardsMedia.

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29 July 2025
Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Ad from August 1925's Ladies Home Journal - Public Domain

Summer represents the low point in the seasonal demand for Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup. In Summer 2025, it also presents a significant effort by The Campbell's Company (NYSE: CPB) to rein its costs to minimize the impact of new tariffs on steel.

In many ways, that's a re-run of what the company faced in 2018. Back then, we estimated the Trump administration's 25% tariff would add somewhere between $0.006 and $0.032 to the cost of each 10.75 fluid ounce can of condensed soup it sells. Which is not very much per can, but multiplied across hundreds of millions of cans sold per year, could have an impact on the company's bottom line.

Which is a point Campbell's then-CFO made while pointing out that small increase would shrink the company's net income (or profit) by roughly 5-6%.

Flash forward to 2025, and the tariffs on steel, which includes the tin-plate steel used to make Campbell's soup cans, have been set at 50%. Double the tariff, double the cost impact.

It wouldn't be surprising then to see one-time price increases related to 2025's steel tariffs taking effect. However our survey of prices and 10 major grocery-selling retailers shows as yet little in the way of price changes for Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup, which so far have been muted. Here's the results for our survey for July 2025 and how prices changed from our previous snapshot in April.

  • Walmart: $1.26/each, unchanged
  • Amazon: $1.26/each, unchanged
  • Kroger: $1.50/each, increase of $0.11 (+7.9%)
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.39/each, increase of $0.10 (+7.8%)
  • CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
  • Albertsons: $1.69/each, unchanged
  • Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
  • H-E-B: $1.31/each, unchanged
  • Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

For these price increases, only Kroger's $0.11 increase to $1.50 per can counts as a true cost increase. While Target has a similar increase in this snapshot, its price of $1.39 per can is really going back to the same level it was in January 2025 after having had it on sale at a small discount in April 2025.

Here's our chart tracking the price per can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup from January 2000 through July 2025.

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - July 2025

For its part, Campbell's current CFO Carrie Anderson is taking measures to avoid passing price increases through to consumers while also maintaining its low profit margins:

Campbell’s tariff mitigation plan also includes strategic inventory management, alternative sourcing, product cost optimization, and “where absolutely necessary, consideration of surgical pricing actions,” Anderson said. The company expects “the net incremental headwind of tariff-related costs to be up to $0.03 to $0.05 per share to fiscal ’25 adjusted EPS,” she added.

These projected tariff-related costs are spread across all of Campbell's products, which includes a lot more than just soup.

Finally, because tariffs are a heavy topic and because it is summer when soup sales are at their lowest, we'll leave you with something a little more light-hearted that explores an unexpected way to get more Campbell's condensed tomato soup onto your dining table:

There has to be a recipe out there somewhere that would make Campbell's Tomato Soup (Condensed) a better seller during the summer months.

Image credit: Advertising for Campbell's Tomato Soup from August 1925 Ladies Home Journal. Public domain image posted at EBay.

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29 April 2025
Advertising for Campbell's Tomato Soup, circa 1920s - https://www.flickr.com/photos/halloweenhjb/50254698076/in/pool-vintage_advertising

Can you believe that 100 years ago, a can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup was advertised for $0.12?

With 2025's prices coming in more than ten times that sale price, it's fair to recognize that there has been quite a lot of inflation between now and then. Especially in the last four years, which saw the trailing twelve month average sale price of a single 10.75 fluid ounce can of Campbell's tomato soup rise from $0.96 per can in April 2021 to $1.27 per can in April 2025, a 32% increase.

But that's a little misleading because the price of an iconic picnic-size can of Campbell's tomato soup has held mostly steady over the past several months. Here are the tomato soup prices we found at the ten major grocery-selling retailers and grocery stores we track in April 2025 with the amount they changed since our January 2025 snapshot.

  • Walmart: $1.26/each, unchanged
  • Amazon: $1.26/each, decrease of $0.93 (-42.5%)
  • Kroger: $1.39/each, unchanged
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.29/each, decrease of $0.10 (-7.2%)
  • CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
  • Albertsons: $1.69/each, increase of $0.20 (+13.4%)
  • Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
  • H-E-B: $1.31/each, unchanged
  • Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

Here's our chart tracking the price per can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup since January 2000. If you want to see the full history, click here.

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - April 2025

Anecdotally, in 2025, it's still occasionally possible to find a grocery store discounting the sale price of a can of Campbell's tomato soup all the way down to $0.99 or $1.00 per can. Such sale events however are becoming both shorter and much less frequent than they were before the recent period of high inflation.

Image credit: Advertising for Campbell's Tomato Soup, circa 1920s. Public domain image posted by Halloween HJB on Flickr. Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Deed.

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08 January 2025
Photo of cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup at Walmart on January 7, 2025 by Ironman on Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/48xqAhxDpdU

There are very few long-running products with decades of history that are fundamentally the same as they were when they first introduced to the market. Campbell's Tomato Soup is one of them, with a history that stretches back to the final years of the nineteenth century.

2025 marks the 128th year in which Americans can go to a grocery store and buy a can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup. When the Campbell's Company (NYSE: CPB) first produced the product, it was revolutionary. John Dorrance's innovation of condensing soup, removing water while preserving the flavor, made it possible to produce, can, store, and ship much larger quantities of soup than ever before. Consumers only needed to pour the contents of the can into a pot on their stove and add water to transform it into their next meal.

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup quickly became the most popular of the first soups the company produced and shipped to grocery stores across the entire United States by train and truck. Today, it is Campbell's second-most popular soup, selling around 84 million cans a year and lagging only behind the company's equally iconic Chicken Noodle Soup, which was introduced in the 1930s.

In 1898, consumers could buy a Number 1 (10.75 oz) size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup for just 10 cents. Today, consumers can walk into a Walmart and buy the exact same size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup for $1.26.

The consistency of Campbell's Tomato Soup as a product over the 128 years it has been available for consumers to buy makes it an ideal product to follow to understand how inflation has affected the prices Americans pay at the grocery store. There's no "shrinkflation" for marketers to hide the price increases that have taken place for the product over time.

Political Calculations has documented the typical price Americans have paid for a single iconic can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup in each month starting from January 1898 by going through more than twelve decades worth of archived newspapers and advertising circulars to identify the prices at which grocers have put them on sale. Today we're updating that price history in our chart visualizing that history from January 1898 through January 2025.

For the latest in our coverage of Campbell's Tomato Soup prices, follow this link!

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - January 2025 (Linear Scale)

We find the prevailing average sale price for this food product over the past 12 months is $1.28 per can, which is 3.2% higher than what we found a year earlier. The rate at which the price of a can of Campbell's Tomato Soup has been inflating in recent years has slowed, but has not stopped escalating.

The 2025 average price of a can of Campbell's Tomato Soup is about 35% higher than the trailing 12 month average of $0.95 per can we recorded in January 2022.

During this time, we've seen discounted sales of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup become both smaller and less frequent. Before March 2021, which marks Month 0 for when President Biden's inflation was unleashed upon the U.S. economy, it was rare to see the regular sale price of a can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup above one dollar. In January 2025, the lowest price at which American consumers can expect to pay for a can when they find it is the $1.25 price at Food Lion grocery stores, which is discounted from a regular price of $1.58 per can.

Here's the January 2025 update for our periodic sampling of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup sale prices at 10 major U.S. grocery-selling retailers, where we're indicated the change in price since our last update in October 2024:

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup costs about 12.8 times more than the original price American grocery shoppers paid when Campbell's began selling their just-invented condensed soup products in 1898. Because its price history now spans more than a full order of magnitude, showing the price history in logarithmic scale gives a better sense of how much and when inflation has affected the prices American consumers pay for a can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup.

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - January 2025 (Logarithmic Scale)

The escalation of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup since March 2021 is consistent with how food prices have generally changed over this time.

Previously on Political Calculations

Political Calculations' analysis of Campbell's Tomato Soup dates back to 2015! Along the way, we've filled in the gaps we had in the historic price data and have explored America's second-most popular soup from a lot of different angles.

Image credit: Photo of cans of Campbell's Tomato Soup at Walmart on January 7, 2025 by Iron Man on Unsplash.

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15 October 2024
A can of tomato soup on a yellow background photo by Anastasiya Badun on Unsplash - https://unsplash.com/photos/a-can-of-tomato-soup-on-a-yellow-background-B3NigPgxydQ

The price of an iconic can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup remained largely stable during the past three months. The trailing twelve month average unit price for the 10.75 fluid ounce can held steady at $1.28. That's the same average price per can as we recorded in July 2024.

Unfortunately, outside of a brief example at Meijer's in September 2024 when the price was marked down to a dollar per can, we're finding few notable sales of Campbell's tomato soup as soup season in the United States gets under way. Prices are substantially higher than they were four years earlier and are nearly double what they were in 2010.

For this edition of our ongoing series on Campbell's Tomato Soup prices, we find that Meijer's sale has ended with the price returning to its regular $1.35 per can level. Here's the rundown of prices and how they've changed since July 2024 from our survey of ten major grocery-selling retailers across the U.S.

  • Walmart: $1.26/each, unchanged
  • Amazon: $1.99/each, increase of $0.70 (+54.3%)
  • Kroger: $1.39/each, unchanged
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
  • CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
  • Albertsons: $1.49/each, decrease of $0.20 (-11.8%)
  • Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
  • H-E-B: $1.31/each, unchanged
  • Meijer: $1.35/each, unchanged

The following chart shows how the price of a can of Campbell's Tomato Soup has evolved during the 2000s:

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 2000 - October 2024

Perhaps the biggest news from the Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) since our last update is the revelation of its plan to remove "Soup" from the company's name! Here's the story from 11 September 2024:

Campbell Soup Co. announced its intention to change its name at an annual meeting of investors on Tuesday. The 155-year-old food seller, which is most famous for its namesake canned soups, says it would now like to be known as Campbell’s Co.

CEO Mark Clouse said in a statement that this “subtle yet important change” will retain the company’s iconic name “while better reflecting the full breadth” of its portfolio today.

Campbell hasn’t been exclusive to the soup business for some time. The company also owns brands like Prego sauce and Goldfish crackers — and completed a $2.7 billion acquisition of Sovos Brands, the maker of Rao’s pasta sauces, just earlier this year.

Campbell’s roots date back to 1869, as a modest operation out of New Jersey that later grew. The current Campbell Soup name was adopted in 1922, according to the company’s website.

Since the news article omits it, here's the link to the company's website, which identifies the name "Campbell Soup Company" being used in November 1922. Here's a public domain image of 1920's era advertising for Campbell's Tomato Soup that shows it being used on the can:

Circa 1920s-era advertisement for Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup

That's quite different from the company name that appeared on the label applied to the first cans of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup when it was introduced in 1897. We should also note the label on the Joseph Campbell Preserve Co.'s cans of soup was itself very different, featuring colors more at home with the arrival of soup season than the much more familiar red and white design the company rolled out in 1898.

First Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Label from 1897

Image credits: A can of tomato soup on a yellow background photo by Anastasiya Badun on Unsplash. The public domain image of the vintage 1920's era advertisement for Campbell's Tomato Soup was posted online by Halloween HJB on Flickr. The original 1897 label for Campbell's original condensed tomato soup cans is likewise in the public domain and was featured at Modern Farmer in an article about the company's role in developing its own unique tomatoes.

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18 July 2024
Cans of Condensed Tomato Soup at Walmart. Photo taken 13 July 2024.

Three months after inflationary prices increases of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup resumed rising after starting to stabilize in late 2023, we find the rate of inflation has slowed again. Unfortunately, we also find no signs of relief for American consumers as prices for the iconic food product remains elevated.

Our monthly survey of the prices at which an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup can be purchased by consumers at ten national and regional grocery sellers provides the data to support that observation. Here are the prices we're observing in our mid-July 2024 survey along with how they have changed since our April 2024 report:

The last three months have been characterized by the general absence of discounted pricing for tomato soup as "soup season" comes to its annual end with the rising temperatures of late spring and early summer. In July 2024, we're finding fewer and fewer grocers selling a 10.75 ounce can of Campbell's tomato soup for less than $1.30. The absence of discounts has become more frequent since mid-2021, coinciding with the arrival of sustained inflation in the U.S. economy.

At this time, only three of the ten grocers we track are doing so: Walmart, Amazon and Food Lion. Meijer, which had held its price below the $1.30 mark has finally raised it higher than that level. For what it's worth, the $1.25 per can price at Food Lion has been discounted from a regular price of $1.58 per can, while Amazon's price fluctuates at the whims of its algorithm, where we have observed the online retailer testing the price at higher levels.

Walmart, for its part, is perhaps the largest seller of Campbell's Soup and its shelf price continues to list its price at $1.26 per can, as can be seen in the photo accompanying this article. That photo shows the 25 June 2024 date that Walmart last printed its shelf price label for Campbell's Tomato Soup.

But how long it will hold that price is an open question. The giant retailer has announced it is adopting electronic price tags that will replace these shelf price labels, which will allow it to change its prices for thousands of goods at a time at the chain's 2,300 stores at the press of a button.

The changes we're observing are significant for U.S. consumers because Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) has produced and sold its condensed tomato soup product in this standard 10.75 fluid ounce can continuously since January 1898. Because of that inherent characteristic, its price is not affected by the marketing trick of shrinkflation, in which producers try to hold their shelf prices steady for consumers in the face of the 2020s persistent inflation by reducing the quantity of goods contained within their packaging. Its price cannot hide the corrosive effects of inflation within the economy, which affects the cost of everything that goes into making it: tomatoes, water, spices, steel (for the can), oil (for transportation), paper (for the label), labor, et cetera.

The following chart tracks the changing price of a 10.75 ounce can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup from January 2000 through July 2024.

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - June 2024 (Linear Scale)

The trailing twelve month average price of a single can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup is $1.28 in July 2024. This figure is 33% higher than what it was in March 2021 and is consistent with how overall food prices have changed in the U.S. economy since the current era of elevated inflation began.

With soup season still another three months away, we don't expect much change in tomato soup prices during the next three months. We hope retailers will discount prices when it does arrive, but the pattern since 2021 has been such that when they do offer those discounts, they do not last long.

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16 April 2024
A can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup. Image generated by Microsoft Copilot Designer.

Inflationary price increases have resumed for Campbell's Tomato Soup.

Our monthly survey of the prices at which ten major grocery retailers are selling an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup indicates upward price movement has resumed after stabilizing during the latter half of 2023.

The changes we're observing are significant for U.S. consumers because Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) has produced and sold its condensed tomato soup product in this standard 10.75 fluid ounce can continuously since January 1898. Because of that inherent characteristic, its price is not affected by the marketing trick of shrinkflation, in which producers try to hold their shelf prices steady for consumers in the face of sustained inflation by reducing the quantity of goods contained within their packaging. Its price cannot hide the corrosive effects of inflation within the economy.

Here are the prices we're observing in our mid-April 2024 survey along with how they have changed since our January 2024 report:

  • Walmart: $1.26/each, unchanged
  • Amazon: $1.26/each, decrease of $0.73 (-36.7%)
  • Kroger: $1.39/each, increase of $0.10 (+7.8%)
  • Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
  • Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
  • CVS: $2.49/each, increase of $0.60 (+31.7%)
  • Albertsons: $1.69/each, increase of $0.20 (+13.4%)
  • Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
  • H-E-B: $1.31/each, unchanged
  • Meijer: $1.29/each, unchanged

We think the most significant price change is the shelf price increase at Kroger-affiliated grocers. The Kroger (NYSE: KRO) family of grocery stores is the largest chain for this category of retailers in the United States. By comparison, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is a larger retailer, but sells far more categories of consumer goods than just groceries. Together, these two companies sell more cans of tomato soup than many of the other grocers combined.

That includes Amazon, which is the only grocery-selling retailer to decrease their price in this report and which sells far fewer cans of soup than either Walmart or Kroger. Amazon is unusual among our surveyed grocery sellers in having very volatile pricing for Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup, showing large swings in price from month to month. Our main takeaway in the online retailer's price for a single picnic-size can of Campbell's second-biggest selling soup product is that its April 2024 unit price is not less than $1.26, which is close to the floor among all our surveyed stores.

The following chart tracks the changing price of a 10.75 ounce can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup from January 2000 through April 2024. (See this article for a chart visualizing our full price history from January 1898 through January 2024).

Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Unit Price per Can, January 1898 - January 2024 (Linear Scale)

The trailing twelve month average price of a single can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup is $1.25 in April 2024. This figure is 30% higher than what it was in March 2021 and is consistent with how overall food prices have changed in the U.S. economy in the period since the current era of elevated inflation began.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup".

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