Unexpectedly Intriguing!
18 October 2021

The arrival of earnings season with a strong showing for several large banks sparked a small rally for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). The index' trajectory has risen back to the middle of the redzone forecast range:

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2021Q3 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 15 Oct 2021

The S&P 500's trajectory is consistent with the projections for investors focusing on either 2021-Q4 or 2022-Q1, which have largely merged over the last several weeks. Between the two, the information provided by the week's news stream points to 2021-Q4 having the edge in drawing the focus of investors' forward-looking attention, thanks to the arrival of its earnings season and the confirmation of the Federal Reserve's plan to start tapering its purchases of U.S. government-issued securities in the next month.

Here's the week's market-moving news:

Monday, 11 October 2021
Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Wednesday, 13 October 2021
Thursday, 14 October 2021
Friday, 15 October 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has a marvelous resource for economic and business data. If you haven't yet met FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), allow us to make the introduction!

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