Last week's edition of our S&P 500 chaos series had the headline "The S&P 500 Dips Outside Redzone Before Rallying to Return. As you might guess from the headline for this week's edition, the index's behavior this week rhymed with that pattern, but didn't repeat since it started and ended at a lower level.
For us, that means there's not much in the way of new analysis to offer that we haven't already shared.
We are however watching the Fed's minions, who are now trying to set investor expectations for rising interest rates in 2022 and especially in 2023, which aren't yet affecting the trajectory of stock prices, but will as we get closer to those potential events. For now, investors are still focusing on the latter portion of 2020-Q4, when the Fed is expected to start tapering its bond buys to stimulate the U.S. economy as it tries to try to slow inflation growth. Both these factors were very noticeable in the past week's news stream.
- Monday, 27 September 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Strong U.S. business spending on equipment seen underpinning GDP growth in Q3
- Oil up on tight supply, Brent crude nears $80 a barrel
- Fed minions can't stop talking taper, two announce resignations after trades are made public:
- Fed officials: Bond taper still hinges on continued job growth
- Ready to taper or waiting for more data? Recent Fed officials' comments
- Fed's Evans sees taper close, expects rate hike in 2023
- NY Fed's Williams says tapering of asset purchases may soon be warranted
- Fed's highest priority is to get people back to work: Kashkari
- Brainard: U.S. "behind" on building climate risk into financial supervision
- Fed’s Rosengren Retiring Due To Health, Following Trading News
- Fed's Kaplan to leave job Oct. 8, citing trading activities
- Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, China:
- Euro zone corporate business slows further
- China power crunch spreads, shutting factories and dimming growth outlook
- ECB minion would like higher inflation still:
- Tech pulls Nasdaq, S&P 500 down as Treasury yields rise
- Tuesday, 28 September 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Marketmind: Time to expect inflation
- U.S. consumer confidence hits seven-month low as near-term economic outlook dims
- Brent dips after topping $80 a barrel, highest since Oct 2018
- Yellen says U.S. may exhaust cash by Oct 18 barring debt ceiling rise
- Fed minions want higher interest rates, think economy is fine, chief Fed minion interviewing to keep job wants to keep stimulus flowing:
- Exclusive-Fed's Bullard: More aggressive Fed stance best to ensure longer expansion
- Fed's Powell says economy is a long way from maximum employment
- Fed's Bostic: U.S. job market in a "jumble," but economy on firm footing
- Bigger trouble developing in Asia:
- World Bank says Delta variant slowing economic growth in East Asia and Pacific
- China's factory profits slow as industries brace for power crisis
- ECB minions think Eurozone governments need precision skills to keep carbon taxes from hurting people, want to keep stimulus flowing:
- Carbon tax to hit people's pockets if used poorly, ECB warns
- ECB's Lagarde, Panetta warn against tightening too soon
- Wall Street stumbles on rising Treasury yields, inflation worries
- Wednesday, 29 September 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions setting stage for rate hikes, chief Fed minion says Fed's only two jobs are tough:
- Fed's Harker says it will soon be time to begin tapering bond purchases
- Fed's Daly sees taper bar met by year end, no rate hike in 2022
- Powell: "Tension" between jobs, inflation is the chief challenge facing Fed
- Bigger trouble developing in China:
- China manufacturing unexpectedly shrinks, services offer support
- Explainer-What is behind China's power crunch?
- China's metal consumers to feel supply sting from forced power cuts
- China's Belt and Road plans losing momentum as opposition, debt mount -study
- Bigger inflation developing all over:
- German import prices rise at fastest rate in 40 years
- Energy costs push Spain's inflation to 13-year-high
- Central bank minions starting to worry about inflation:
- Central banks parse inflation risk as turn from pandemic policy begins
- ECB's Lagarde flags bottlenecks, energy and virus as key risks
- S&P 500, Dow gain amid inflation concerns, debt ceiling debate
- Thursday, 30 September 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Fed minions setting stage for rate hikes:
- Coronavirus pandemic still shaping course of national economies:
- Bigger inflation developing all over:
- French inflation hit near 10-year high of 2.7% in September
- German inflation accelerates at record pace in September
- Euro zone to discuss economic hit from soaring energy prices
- BOJ minion happy with never-ending stimulus policy, ECB minion starting to worry about inflation:
- BOJ Kuroda vows to keep easy policy on weak consumption, inflation
- Centeno says ECB needs to keep monitoring inflation, stand ready to act
- Wall St slides, S&P 500 posts worst month, quarter since COVID outbreak
- Friday, 1 October 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- U.S. manufacturing expands further in September; shortages, prices rising-ISM
- U.S. consumer spending increases; inflation eroding households' buying power
- Oil settles near 3-year high ahead of OPEC+ meeting
- Fed minions setting stage for rate hikes:
- Exclusive-Fed's Harker says economy close to achieving inflation goal for rate hikes
- Fed's Mester repeats first rate hike could come at the end of 2022
- Coronavirus pandemic still shaping course of national economies:
- India's factory activity improved in Sept as demand strengthened
- Japan Aug household spending seen falling on pandemic hit: Reuters poll
- Euro zone factory growth strong in Sept but bottlenecks bite
- Bigger inflation developing all over:
- Wall Street kicks off October with broad rally, boosted by economic cheer
Last week, we featured a resource that provides a wealth of information about current interest rates for consumers. But what about historic interest rates? If you're looking for data on 30-year conventional mortgage rates since January 1971, check out Freddie Mac's monthly averages.
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