Unexpectedly Intriguing!
22 February 2022

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued following a volatile, downward trajectory in the trading week ending 18 February 2022. The latest update to the alternative futures chart reveals the index is falling within the projected range of the downward-pointing redzone forecast, which assumes investors are focusing on the near term future as they set current day stock prices.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2022Q1 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 18 Feb 2022

The news of the past week confirms that attention, with investors paying close attention to both when and how the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin implementing rate hikes, with noise contributed by the Biden administration's disjointed attempt at geopolitics through its seemingly Zeno's paradox-based media strategy featuring claims of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine that would start on 16 February 2022, but didn't, only to be replaced by regularly updated claims of an ever-imminent Russian invasion. Which hadn't happened through the end of the trading week ending on Friday, 18 February 2022, but that was before the events of the long holiday weekend added more noise to the situation. Here is the market-moving news that did happen during the trading week that was:

Monday, 14 February 2022
Tuesday, 15 February 2022
Wednesday, 16 February 2022
Thursday, 17 February 2022
Friday, 18 February 2022

After trading closed on 18 February 2022, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a total of six quarter point rate hikes in 2022, starting in March 2022 (2022-Q1), followed by quarter pint rate hikes in May 2022 (2022-Q2), June 2022 (2022-Q2), July 2022 (2022-Q3), September 2022 (2022-Q3) and December (2022-Q4). Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool has boosted its real GDP growth to 1.3% for the current first quarter of 2022, up from last week's estimate of 0.7% real growth.

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