Unexpectedly Intriguing!
26 May 2022

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the U.S. new homes market cap for April 2022 is $31.37 billion. That figure is 1.7% higher than March 2022's revised nominal market cap of $30.86 billion.

The following chart shows what that new record looks like in the context of the new home market cap history since January 1976:

Trailing Twelve Month Average New Home Sales Market Capitalization in the United States, January 1976 - April 2022

Soaring prices are the primary driver of April 2022's increase in the market cap for new homes sold in the U.S. In the two years since the Coronavirus Recession bottomed in April 2020, the trailing twelve month average of new home sale prices have increased by 35.2%. Meanwhile, the trailing twelve month average number of new home sales continued its upward trend in April 2022, but the increase in this component of the market capitalization math is much smaller than the contribution from the increase in new home sale prices.

New home sales ticked up in April 2022:

Trailing Twelve Month Average of the Annualized Number of New Homes Sold in the U.S., January 1976 - April 2022

Average sale prices jumped to $516,283:

Trailing Twelve Month Average of the Mean Sale Price of New Homes Sold in the U.S., January 1976 - April 2022

The trailing twelve month average for new home sales removes the effects of annual seasonality from this data, while the math helps smooth the month-to-month noise in new home sale prices, making it easier to identify trends for both data series. Since new home sales are counted toward GDP when their sales contracts are signed, a rising trend in the market cap for new homes represents an economic plus for the U.S. economy. The National Association of Home Builders estimates new home sales contribute 3% to 5% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product.

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