Unexpectedly Intriguing!
20 November 2023
bull running out of a gate, golden hour, nikon 35, highly detailed, photorealistic, 4k - Source: Microsoft Bing Image Creator

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had one of its best weeks in 2023. The index rose nearly 2.2% to 4510.54. Since bottoming on 27 October 2023, the index has flirted with recording its fastest comeback ever after going into a correction, rising 9.5% in the weeks since.

There is one and only one story behind the past week's rise in stock prices. The October 2023 consumer price inflation report released on Tuesday, 14 November 2023 came in slightly lower than expected with indications U.S. inflation will continue trending downward. That change was enough to take the prospect of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve off the table, at least for the near-term, which boosted the outlook for publicly-traded companies in the U.S.

Other market-moving news headlines during the week did little to alter that updated expectation, with the outcome being seen as a jump in the S&P 500 on Tuesday followed by a relatively flat trajectory for stock prices afterward. The latest update to the dividend futures-based model's alternative futures chart captures that action:

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2023Q4 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 17 Nov 2023

Here is our summary of the week's market moving news headlines.

Monday, 13 November 2023
Tuesday, 14 November 2023
Wednesday, 15 November 2023
Thursday, 16 November 2023
Friday, 17 November 2023

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% through next April (2024-Q2). Starting from 1 May (2024-Q2), investors expect deteriorating economic conditions will force the Fed to start a series of quarter point rate cuts at six-to-twelve-week intervals through the end of 2024, which is six weeks earlier than expected a week ago.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the current quarter of 2023-Q4 dipped slightly to +2.0% from the +2.1% annualized growth it projected a week ago.

Image credit: Prompt: Microsoft Bing Image Creator. "bull running out of a gate, golden hour, nikon 35, highly detailed, photorealistic, 4k".

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