Unexpectedly Intriguing!
13 November 2023
Bing Image Creator. Prompt: A digital art concept illustrating rising stock prices and falling bond yields. 4k.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) gained nearly 1.2% over its previous week's close, ending the first full trading week of November 2023 at 4409.95.

In doing so, it continued reverting toward its mean and is now about a half percent below it.

In terms of the bigger picture, the move was accompanied by the reversal of the October 2023 spike in long term U.S. Treasury yields. Since they peaked on 27 October 2023, there has only been one day where they've increased, which came on Thursday, 9 November 2023, coinciding with the only decrease in stock prices over the period.

Here's the latest update for the dividend futures-based model's alternative future chart. Compared to last week's edition, we've extended the redzone forecast range through 15 November 2023to compensate for the effect of more recent volatility in stock prices.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2023Q4 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 10 Nov 2023

The most interesting headlines of the week came on Thursday, 9 November 2023 and are related to a disappointing auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries that was apparently handicapped by the hacking of a Chinese bank, whose absence from participation briefly caused long term interest rates to rise that day. Follow the links below to find out more, although that's just one of several themes recorded in the week's market moving headlines.

Monday, 6 November 2023
Tuesday, 7 November 2023
Wednesday, 8 November 2023
Thursday, 9 November 2023
Friday, 10 November 2023

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool's projections now anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% into mid-June (2024-Q2). Starting from 12 June (2024-Q2), investors expect deteriorating economic conditions will force the Fed to start a series of quarter point rate cuts at six-to-twelve-week intervals through the end of 2024, which is six weeks later than expected a week ago.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the current quarter of 2023-Q4 bounced up to +2.1% from the +1.2% annualized growth it projected a week ago and back in the ballpark of where it was two weeks ago.

Image credit: Bing Image Creator. Prompt: "A digital art concept illustrating rising stock prices and falling bond yields. 4k." 10 November 2023.

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