Later this week, on Thursday, 25 July 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the United States' Gross Domestic Product during the second quarter of 2024.
With that date just a day away, it's a good time to check in with how 2024-Q2's GDP tracks with what a momentum-based forecasting method projected it would be for this quarter over seven months ago. That simple method, called the "Climbing Limo", uses nominal GDP data that was available back in December 2023 in its projections.
As you can see in the following chart, that method came within one percent of anticipating the final GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1), the data for which only became available last month.
Coincidentally, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for 2024-Q1 was correct in projecting 2024-Q1's actual GDP exceeded the climbing limo's momentum-based forecast for this period.
Looking forward, since the GDP data for 2024-Q1 has been finalized, the Climbing Limo projection of GDP built using that data point suggests the United States' nominal GDP is on track to rise through the end of 2024 at a steady pace.
Update 25 July 2024
The BEA's first estimate of nominal GDP for 2024-Q2 is $28,629.2 billion (nominal = not adjusted for inflation). That figure is 0.8% below the Climbing Limo's forecast of $28,849.4 billion for 2024-Q2, as the U.S. economy would appear to be returning to underperforming the forecasting method's projection of where it would be based on its previous momentum.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product. [Online Database]. Accessed 27 June 2024.
Political Calculations. Forecasting GDP Using the Climbing Limo. [Online Tool]. 10 May 2005.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A simple sketch of a limousine driving uphill toward the right side of a rising zig zag line chart".
Labels: gdp forecast
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