There were some very small changes for the outlook of the quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) through the rest of 2024.
On the plus side, the outlook for dividends being paid in the current quarter of 2024-Q3 improved since the snapshot we took on 19 July 2024. The quarter's dividend futures contracts rose by six cents per share, bringing 2024-Q3's projected payout for the S&P 500 to $18.35 per share.
On the negative side of the ledger, the outlook for the final quarter of 2024 dimmed slightly. Going into 16 August 2024, the S&P 500's anticipated dividend payout for 2024-Q4 declined by eight cents to $18.82 per share.
Combined, that's a net negative two cent change in the index' dividends projected to be paid out before the end of 2024, which is to say that not much changed in the overall outlook over the past month.
The following animated chart shows these changes in the expectations for dividends in the month from our 19 July 2024 snapshot to our 16 August 2024 snapshot:
More About Dividend Futures Data
Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2024-Q3 began on Saturday, 22 June 2024 and will end on Friday, 20 September 2024.
That makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.
Labels: dividends, forecasting, SP 500
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