Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.
The index' earnings per share show little change with respect to where they were just three months earlier. We find some minor erosion in 2024-Q4's projected earnings, which dipped from $216.65 per share on 13 August 2024 to $211.67 per share on 13 November 2024.
Meanwhile, there's virtually no meaningful change in Standard and Poor's projections of the S&P 500's earnings per share at the end of 2025-Q4. Here, we see S&P's forecast dipped by a trivial 25 cents per share, from $250.87 in mid-August 2024 to $250.62 in mid-November 2024.
These developments are shown on the following chart:
At this point, we'll observe that it's changes in the outlook for dividends per share, rather than earnings per share, that primarily drives stock prices. The last three months have been characterized by the S&P 500 rising to new record highs, though there has been very little-to-negative changes in its earnings per share outlook. We'll present how the outlook for the S&P 500's dividends per share in the very near future.
Reference
Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 13 November 2024. Accessed 1 November 2024.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Earnings' written above it, which we added.
Labels: earnings, forecasting, SP 500
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