The climbing limo method of forecasting future GDP in the United States projects the nation's economic output in the recently finished third quarter of 2025 will be around $30.9 trillion.
This estimate assumes the momentum the U.S. economy recorded in growing between 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q4 will be sustained through the current quarter. Since the U.S. economy's momentum has been slowing however, it's likely 2025-Q3's will come in below that value, which is not adjusted for inflation.
That's the same scenario we anticipated for 2025-Q2's finalized GDP estimate, which the following chart indicates held even as the BEA revised all the GDP data used to create the climbing limo forecasts.
Because the BEA revised all its GDP data going back to the first quarter of 2020, this chart shows the climbing limo GDP forecasts as if that data had been available throughout the period it covers.
Generally speaking, the BEA revised its nominal GDP data for all quarters from 2020-Q1 through 2025-Q1 upward by varying amounts, with the largest adjustments in the period from 2023-Q3 through 2025-Q1.
Looking at the recently released estimate for 2025-Q2, the climbing limo method had forecast GDP would clock in at about $30.58 trillion, which after the BEA's revisions, is now shown as nearly $30.76 trillion. The BEA's now official estimate of GDP for this quarter is $30.49 trillion. The official estimate came in lower than both the original and revised forecasts.
The climbing limo forecasting method is a "momentum"-based projection. As such, even when recorded GDP deviates considerably from the forecast values that are projected three quarters ahead in time, it provides valuable information in confirming the economy's underlying momentum has changed. For much of the period the chart shows, it confirms the U.S. economy's growth momentum has been slowing since its initial recovery from 2020's Coronavirus Pandemic Recession.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product. [Online Database]. Accessed 26 September 2025.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "Image of a long limousine driving up a bumpy area chart labeled 'GDP'".
Labels: gdp forecast
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