The climbing limo method of forecasting future GDP in the United States projects the nation's economic output in the recently finished second quarter of 2025 will be around $30.5 trillion.
This estimate assumes the momentum the U.S. economy recorded in growing between 2024-Q1 and 2024-Q3 will be sustained through the current quarter. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy's momentum has been slowing, which suggests GDP for 2025-Q2 will come in below that estimate.
Speaking of which, that exact scenario played in the first quarter of 2025, which we can confirm with the third estimate of that quarter's GDP that was reported on 26 June 2025. The climbing limo method had forecast the economy would U.S. grow $30.1 trillion in nominal, non-inflation adjusted terms, which we projected three quarters ago. The actual figure came in at $30.0 trillion, which is not far off from that projection, but still undershoots it. This outcome confirms the nation's nominal economic growth has slowed.
We're citing these figures as if they're fully fixed, but they are still subject to annual revisions. The Bureau of Economic Statistics typically performs an annual revision for its GDP data sometime during the third quarter of each year, most often in July. When it does, we'll regenerate all the climbing limo forecasts based on how the official data changes.
Until then, the following chart shows the climbing limo method's forecast against the recorded nominal GDP over the past 12 quarters for which GDP data has been finalized outside of the BEA's annual revisions.
Regardless of revisions, the GDP data for 2025-Q2 will be something to watch because of the global tariff war that erupted on 2 April 2025 at the start of the quarter. The tariff war may have something of a wild card effect on the U.S. economy's growth trajectory, hinging on multiple factors that have been playing out within the economy during the last few months.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product. [Online Database]. Accessed 26 June 2025.
Political Calculations. Forecasting GDP Using the Climbing Limo. [Online Tool]. 10 May 2005.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A long limousine driving up a bumpy chart showing GDP growth".
Labels: gdp forecast
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