The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 improved in the month since we presented our previous snapshot of their future.
The amount of dividends expected to be paid out in each of these quarters has risen above the levels recorded on 13 June 2025, but by varying amounts. Both the recently ended quarter of 2025-Q2 and the now current quarter of 2025-Q3 saw small increases. The fourth quarter of 2025 however is projected to have a much larger gain than was forecast in the previous month.
Here are the projections recorded as of the close of trading on Monday, 14 July 2025.
- 2025-Q2: Increase of $0.14, rising to $19.35 per share
- 2025-Q3: Increase of $0.13, rising to $19.26 per share
- 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.49, rising to $19.76 per share
The following animated chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 13 May 2025 to 14 July 2025. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.
How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.
More About Dividend Futures Data
For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.
Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. So for example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q3 began on Saturday, 21 June 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 September 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, 2025-Q4 will become the current quarter on Saturday, 22 September 2025.
Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.
Labels: dividends, forecasting, SP 500
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Closing values for previous trading day.
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