The final week of summer saw the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) close out the week at 7,718.60, slightly up over the preceding week's close and one percent below its 13 August 2026 record high.

As expected, investors focused on the upcoming quarter of 2026-Q4 in setting stock prices. The future quarter has become the focus because of the Fed's ongoing "will they or won't they hike rates during the quarter" drama.

Speaking of which, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a 59% probability the Fed will hike the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent on 16 September (2026-Q3), with a little under 41% chance of holding at its current target range of 3.50-3.75%. The big change from the previous week however is that the FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will delay its next quarter point rate hike until 27 January (2027-Q1), although it still gives a 39% probability of an earlier rate hike on 8 December (2026-Q4).

The continuing uncertainty provides investors with an incentive to set their attention on 2026-Q4. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500's trajectory remains consistent with the approximate level the dividend futures-based model would project for it provided investors focus their forward-looking attention upon 2026-Q4.

Here are the market moving headlines of the week that was:

Monday, 31 August 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks
• Yields rise, oil jumps; US and Iran resume military attacks
• Trump announces deal with Venezuela to secure more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves
• Trump says US is taking partial control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves
• Fed minion happy to see money being used productively, says policymakers need a new playbook:
• Fed's Warsh says past global savings glut is turning into investment surge
• Warsh Says the Old Economic Playbook Is Obsolete
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's three biggest airlines post heavy first-half losses as fuel shock bites
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Bessent says disorderly yen moves can destabilize global markets
• ECB minions / Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Europe's central bankers fear more turbulence in testy U.S. relations
• Wall Street ends lower as Middle East tensions flare
• Wall Street closes lower as oil prices jump, indexes notch monthly gains
• S&P 500 earnings growth broadens as corporate profits stay strong

Tuesday, 1 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US factory activity slows in August; input prices remain elevated
• US job openings rise in July after sharp downward revision in prior month
• Oil jumps 5% as the U.S. strikes Iran and the Hormuz risk premium returns
• 10-year yield hits highest since January 2025 as higher oil prices stoke inflation worries
• US construction spending drops to nearly three-year low in July
• Fed minions get in line behind new Fed chief minion's policies:
• Fed's Barr open to rate hike if inflation does not moderate
• Warsh scored an easy win in Jackson Hole. The hard work starts now
• Bigger trouble developing out of China as growth improves:
• Chinese shipper COSCO collects intel for Beijing with concealed equipment, US officials say
• China's August factory activity picks up as demand improves, PMI shows
• BOJ minions, U.S. Treasury watching Japan's currency:
• Yen hangs near 160 amid BOJ rate-hike bets, dollar wobbles
• Bessent expects Japan to take action to boost yen, signals BOJ rate-hike chance
• Japan faces day of policy reckoning as Bessent calls time on big stimulus
• Growth signs in Japan's economy:
• Japan manufacturing new business rises at fastest pace since 2018, PMI shows
• Bigger trouble developing everywhere:
• Global bond rout deepens as Japan yield hits key milestone
• Government borrowing costs rise anew, adding to pressure on global policymakers
• Wall Street finished in the red while yields advanced at the start of September
• Wall Street ends lower as higher yields, rising oil prices mark shaky start to September

Wednesday, 2 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Rise in US factory orders beats expectations in July
• Data centers are leaving office construction in the dust
• Not just Nvidia: these power and cooling firms are riding the trillion-dollar data centre boom
• Oil settles 1% higher, as US-Iran strikes threaten supplies
• OPEC+ likely to keep oil output policy unchanged on Sunday, sources say
• Fed minions say bond yields are rising because U.S. economy is strong:
• Fed's Williams ties rising bond yields to strong economy, CNBC reports
• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits highest level since November 2023
• Bigger trouble developing out of China:
• China never deliberately pursues trade surplus, central bank governor says
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ minions standing by to hike interest rates more: :
• Japan's benchmark bond yield rises to 3% for first time in 30 years
• How Japan's bond rout is turning the tide of global capital
• Bond selloff is likely amplified by obscure economic rate
• BOJ's Takata urges nimble rate hikes, says 2026 marks a turning point
• BOJ chief signals chance of September rate hike, debate on price risks
• Bessent urges BOJ chief to combat weak yen with 'decisive' monetary steps
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• US tech firms may crowd out others in euro bond market and raise credit risk
• Wall Street finished higher after the previous session's sell-off
• Wall St ends higher as stocks reclaim some shine

Thursday, 3 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Treasury yields fall after top Fed official signals support for rate hold
• World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Cuts Treasury Holdings... But It's Not What You Think
• Oil prices mixed as investors weigh Middle East escalation, chance of Russia-Ukraine peace deal
• US job growth expected to rebound in August
• US trade deficit widens in July; capital goods imports hit record high
• Strong demand boosts US services sector activity in August
• Fed minions see growth, moderate inflation:
• Fed survey shows economic activity edged up, prices rose moderately in recent weeks
• Fed's Waller says safety premium for Treasuries is gone, pushing neutral rate higher
• Fed's Waller channels his inner John Lennon with a plea to 'give disinflation a chance'
• Treasury yields fall after top Fed official signals support for rate hold
• Bond selloff is likely amplified by obscure economic rate
• Bigger stimulus, growth signs developing in China:
• China to support 'little giants' and other emerging companies in plan to boost jobs and innovation
• China services activity quickens on stronger domestic demand, private PMI shows
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan services growth hits five-month high, PMI shows
• Yen rallies sharply as markets raise bets on Bank of Japan rate hikes
• Bigger trouble developing in one particular Eurozone nation:
• German firms feel growing pressure from Chinese rivals, survey finds
• Euro zone overall business growth held steady in August, PMI shows
• Wall Street closed higher after the latest jobless claims and trade data
• Wall Street ends sharply higher as Waller remarks ease rate hike fears

Friday, 4 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US nonfarm payrolls blow past expectations in August; unemployment rate steady at 4.1%
• Strong August jobs report sends yields higher
• Oil ends week higher on renewed US-Iran strikes, diesel hits record
• Fed minions expected to hike rates in response to better than expected jobs report:
• Fed rate hike back in focus after strong jobs report
• Trump says if the Fed doesn't cut rates, he'll stop trading with some nations
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese banks purchasing Treasuries after wooing dollar deposits
• BOJ, JapanGov minions efforts to prop up Japan's currency being taken more seriously:
• Japan warns against weak yen, stands ready to intervene
• Yen's changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears
• Japan July household spending falls at fastest pace in 2-1/2 years, signs of slowing economy:
• Economists say ECB minions excited to hike Eurozone interest rates one last time, another ECB minion thinking about their next job:
• ECB to raise rates a second time in September, but then done, say economists
• ECB's Schnabel may leave early for IMF job, Handelsblatt reports
• S&P 500 ends nearly flat for week as strong jobs data weighs on markets
• Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets

The headlines out of Japan suggest the recent rising yields of U.S. Treasuries have a "made in Japan" element to them. This factor may be significant because they would have an effect on the U.S. stock market, with higher yields depressing stock prices because of the resulting higher cost of debt. The effect would be most pronounced on firms that are looking to utilize significant debt financing to support their growth.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool anticipates +4.7% real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2026-Q3, ticking up from the +4.6% annualized growth it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear enjoying a Labor Day holiday barbecue as the bear says ‘I CAN'T BELIEVE SUMMER IS OVER ALREADY! WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO THE REST OF THE YEAR?’" We're not sure what the bull is thinking about with what they're barbecuing - perhaps they're a soy-based alternative to what they look like!