Political Calculations
September 7, 2005

This week's Carnival of the Capitalists is hosted at RethinkIP, and it's pretty rough reading as it was written by intellectual property (IP) lawyers. My guess is that the lawyers specialize in electronics or computing-related IP, since the noise-to-signal ratio is pretty high. For the sake of cutting through that noise, here are the best posts of the week:

Hurricane Katrina

First and foremost, support the Katrina relief efforts. N.Z. Bear's list of charitable organizations supported by the blogging community provides more than ample opportunities to direct relief to those who need it. After you've made financial contributions, be sure to follow up by giving blood too! Political Calculations is spearheading the blogosphere's blood drive. Find a blood drive in your area or organize a drive yourself, make an appointment to donate your blood, and make plans to do it again in 2 months!

Dawn of Frugal for Life wants charitable donations to get to the people who need them, and has hoisted the warning flags for how to avoid con artists pushing phony charities.

David Tufte of voluntaryXchange goes out on a limb in his thought-provoking proposal for how to rebuild New Orleans.

Economics

Financial Methods finds that the probability of a recession occuring is now 20% - largely a result of the flattening the yield curve and increaseing energy costs.

Business

Conference Calls Unlimited provides a list of the 10 Things Smart Startups Know.

Best Post of the Week

David St. Lawrence of Ripples... looks at the Winners, losers, and victims in the third part of his series on Playing a better game of life. His key observation is that "success takes a LOT of work and a very small amount of luck."



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Most Popular Posts

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Recession Probability Track

Recession Probability Track - 11 October 2005 through 9 October 2009

Political Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.

Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.

As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)

On the Moneyed Midways

Political Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals. More than that, we also name one post in each edition as being The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! and at the end of each year, we name The Best Post of the Year, Anywhere! as well as identifying the best blogs we found during the course of the year!

The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)

OMM's Running Index for 2008

Recent Posts

Potential Answers to the Krugman Question

A Grand Plan for Rail in the West

Blogosphere Blood Drive: Hurricane Katrina Relief ...

High Investment, Low Payoff Careers

Flying the Friendly Skies (Part 2)

The Passing of Jude Wanniski

The Risks of Social Security

Projecting U.S. Median Housing Prices

Q&A on Economic Freedom

Comparing Standard and Hybrid Cars

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