Since posting the tools for reckoning and visualizing the odds of a recession occurring in the next 12 months, we've noticed that our site meter has also turned into a pretty good indicator of when the odds of recession are increasing or decreasing!
Based on our observations over the past two months, we've seen a significant spike in traffic (mostly to the two tools linked above) as the risk of recession increased with the inverting yield curve (peaking in the mid-40%'s.) Recently however, Political Calculations' site traffic has decreased to what we would call "more normal" levels as the probability of recession has decreased in recent days - going back to where it was when the Fed chose to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged.
Something for potential advertisers to consider for the next time the economy appears to head south....
Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at:
ironman at politicalcalculations
Thanks in advance!
Closing values for previous trading day.
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