Sometime, within the next twelve to eighteen months, the average circulation of the weekday edition of the New York Times will drop below one million. This event marks the continuing decline in the fortunes of what had been the U.S. newspaper of record as the New York Times' average circulation has been well above this level for decades.

We base this prediction upon data recently provided by the New York Times Company in its annual report, which it released earlier this year. Combined with circulation data provided by the Grey Lady's parent company in its previous Securites and Exchange Commission financial data filings, we've updated our charts showing the trend in the New York Times' weekday circulation since it peaked in 1993:

The table below provides the circulation numbers that we used to create the chart above, both nationally and within the newspaper's home region. Clicking the "Year" links provides the relevant NYT's SEC filing for the indicated year, from which we obtained the newspaper's circulation data, which is reported in the section of the annual report in which the company's management discusses its business:

New York Times Average Weekday Circulation, 1993 through 2007
Year	Weekday Circulation (Mon-Fri)	Weekday Percentage of Total Circulation in NYC	Weekday Circulation Within NYC Market	Weekday Circulation Outside NYC Market	Percentage Decline of Total Weekday Circulation
1993	1,183,100	64	757,184	425,916	0.0
1994	1,148,800	64	735,232	413,568	-2.9
1995	1,124,300	62	697,066	427,234	-5.0
1996	1,111,800	62	689,316	422,484	-6.0
1997	1,090,900	62	676,358	414,542	-7.8
1998	1,088,100	61	663,741	424,359	-8.0
1999	1,109,700	60	665,820	443,880	-6.2
2000	1,122,400	59	662,216	460,184	-5.1
2001	1,143,700	58	663,346	480,354	-3.3
2002	1,131,400	55	622,270	509,130	-4.4
2003	1,132,000	53	599,960	532,040	-4.3
2004	1,124,700	50	562,350	562,350	-4.9
2005	1,135,800	49	556,542	579,258	-4.0
2006	1,103,600	48	529,728	573,872	-6.7
2007	1,066,600	47	501,302	565,298	-9.8

The New York Times had staved off a greater circulation decline through its strategy of moving to become a national newspaper in the late 1990s. However, this national strategy has not been successful in holding off the newspaper's decline in total circulation since 2001. More importantly, between 2006 and 2007, the New York Times' circulation decline has accelerated, which is evident in the steeper downward slope in the chart.

In fact, the NYT management's strategy may well have also accelerated the newspaper's circulation decline in its home market, which is evident in the steeper decline seen in the chart above, as the publishers and editors (the newspaper's management) have effectively chosen to ignore crafting a more successful product for its home market in favor of chasing higher circulation in the national market.

These problems are compounded by the New York Times' management's longstanding leftist tilt in the newspaper's news and editorial coverage, which effectively sabotages the newspaper's ability to successfully reach a wider, more politically diverse, audience by limiting the newspaper's attractiveness to consumers in that bigger market.

The New York Times' circulation decline is not limited to its weekday editions. The same trend of decline is evident even in the newspaper's larger Sunday circulation data. The chart below shows the trend in the New York Times' circulation since 1993:

And for good measure, here's our table showing the data underlying the trends shown in the New York Times Sunday circulation chart:

New York Times Average Sunday Circulation, 1993 through 2007
Year	Sunday Circulation	Sunday Percentage of Total Circulation in NYC	Sunday Circulation Within NYC Market	Sunday Circulation Outside NYC Market	Percentage Decline of Total Sunday Circulation
1993	1,783,900	63	1,123,857	660,043	0.0
1994	1,742,200	63	1,097,586	644,614	-2.3
1995	1,720,300	60	1,032,180	688,120	-3.6
1996	1,701,800	60	1,021,080	680,720	-4.6
1997	1,651,400	59	974,326	677,074	-7.4
1998	1,638,900	58	950,562	688,338	-8.1
1999	1,671,200	56	935,872	735,328	-6.3
2000	1,686,700	55	927,685	759,015	-5.4
2001	1,659,900	53	879,747	780,153	-7.0
2002	1,682,100	51	857,871	824,229	-5.7
2003	1,682,100	49	824,229	857,871	-5.7
2004	1,669,700	47	784,759	884,941	-6.4
2005	1,684,700	44	741,268	943,432	-5.6
2006	1,637,700	44	720,588	917,112	-8.2
2007	1,529,700	42	642,474	887,226	-14.2

The declines documented above reflect a worsening business situation for the New York Times, as lower circulation figures point to lower revenues realized through advertising and subscriptions. While the New York Times is now moving to grow its online presence and corresponding advertising revenues, online ads generate far less revenue than do traditional advertisements, which strains the company's financial performance.

This distress is evident in the newspaper's stock price, which we've shown from January 1998 through March 2008 (to date), in the chart below (via Yahoo! Finance):

The price of the New York Times' Company stock grew as the newspaper transitioned to become a national newspaper up until 2001, reflecting the peak of the newspaper's success with this strategy in holding off greater declines. However, since then, the company's stock price has dropped with its declining fortunes.

Labels: business

- posted by Ironman at 3:10 PM | Permalink | Home |