Unexpectedly Intriguing!
July 27, 2009

S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, December 1991 through 27 July 2009We're still experimenting with how to best visualize our model of where the S&P 500 will head next, so to that end, we've adapted one of our existing charts to indicate the range of values into which we expect stock prices to fall. We're not ready to call the range we're showing for August 2009 a real prediction yet, in that our data for July 2009 is not yet complete.

If you click the chart for a larger version, you'll see that we've had a fairly good performance in anticipating where the S&P 500 would go for the full months for which we've made predictions, indicated by the green rectangles. The exception is May 2009, where we revised our original forecast downward, as indicated by the orange rectangle.

We may need to do that again, or at least apply the lesson learned and also calculate the range of stock prices using an older base value from which to project their value forward, but for now, we're really more interested in evaluating this method of visualizing the forecast data.

Keep in mind too - that preliminary forecast range runs from 991 to 1007. The S&P 500 closed today at 982.18 - it's not like we're not far off from that range right now.


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