This edition of the S&P 500 chaos series won't be a surprise at all. On Friday, 27 August 2021 the Fed's minions went all out to set the expectations that the Fed will start slowing down and tapering its stimulus bond buys in the fourth quarter of 2021. Not uncoincidentally, the dividend futures-based model says investors are mostly fixing their forward looking focus on 2021-Q4, so mission accomplished for the minions.
Looking forward, we see the dividend futures-based model is about to enter another period where the volatility of past stock prices affects its projections of the future. We've updated the redzone forecast we've been showing in the 2021-Q3 chart since we first introduced it at the beginning of the quarter, which assumes investors will remain focused on 2021-Q4 from now until most of the way through the fourth quarter of 2021.
That's pretty much the week's news in a nutshell with respect to moving the markets. Here's the rest, where if you're not familiar with how little most political events affect stock prices, you might be surprised to see how little President Biden's fiasco in Afghanistan is affecting the market, which is paying much closer attention to what the Fed is planning to do.
- Monday, 23 August 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Delta variant, having put kibosh on Fed event, begins to menace recovery
- Oil jumps 5% after 7 days of losses, boosted by weaker dollar
- Delta variant, supply woes crimp business activity in August -IHS Markit survey
- Chief Fed minion gets Treasury endorsement for re-upping in job:
- Global economy recovering to pre-pandemic level, still being dictated by COVID waves:
- Global dividends to near pre-pandemic levels in 2021 -report
- Japan's private-sector activity hit by COVID-19 surge - PMI
- France's Le Maire: French economy "doing well", hoping for pre-COVID growth levels by end 2021
- UK growth slows to six-month low as post-lockdown shortages bite -PMI
- Euro zone business boom roared on in August -PMI
- Bigger inflation developing all over:
- Wall St gains, Nasdaq notches record closing high on full vaccine approval
- Tuesday, 24 August 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- U.S. new home sales creep up; supply, prices remain constraints
- Oil settles up 3%, boosted by Mexican oil rig outage, U.S. vaccine approval
- Bigger trouble developing in Asia:
- Delta blow knocks wind out of Asia's economic recovery
- Two-thirds of Japan's smaller firms' sales still below pre-COVID level -survey
- ECB minions want to regulate more:
- Wall St extends rally, pushing S&P 500 to 50th all-time high close this year
- Wednesday, 25 August 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Oil extends rally, rises over 1% on U.S. fuel demand recovery
- U.S. mortgage applications rise as mortgage rates edge down -MBA
- Fed minions conflicted by only two tasks they have:
- Bigger trouble developing in China, Germany; Bigger stimulus developing in China:
- BOJ policymaker warns of global impact from chip crunch, Asia factory closures
- German exports to China fall for first time in nearly a year
- China central bank increases cash injections to soothe tightening worries
- ECB minion says Eurozone economy looking better than expected:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq notch all-time closing highs ahead of Jackson Hole
- Thursday, 26 August 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- U.S. August auto sales to fall as supply constraints continue - J.D. Power, LMC Automotive
- U.S. corporate profits soar in second quarter; economic growth raised
- Oil rally falters on pandemic surge, renewed Mexico supply
- Fed minions getting on board with slowing and stopping stimulus bond buys sooner:
- Fed hawks circle before Powell speech as they push for bond taper
- Fed's George: Taper should come 'sooner rather than later'
- Fed's Kaplan: U.S. economy still on track for tapering in October or "shortly thereafter"
- "Fed Should Get Going" - Stocks Stumble As Fed's Bullard Says Taper Should Be Over By Q1 2022
- Fed's Powell likely to give few hints on bond-buying taper timeline
- COVID: Bigger trouble developing in Japan, bigger stimulus developing in China:
- Japan keeps economic view intact, bleaker on outlook due to COVID
- China urges financial support for retail, catering, trading firms
- Other central bank minions moving to hike rates:
- Wall Street loses ground, snapping rally on Afghanistan, Fed concerns
- Friday, 27 August 2021
- Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
- Automobiles restrain U.S. consumer spending, monthly inflation slowing
- U.S. consumer sentiment plummets to near-decade low
- Runaway U.S. home price rises to slow, but affordability to worsen: Reuters poll
- Fed minions indicate tapering of stimulus bond buys to begin in 2021-Q4:
- Fed's Powell holds fast to 'this year' timeline for bond-buying taper
- It's time to pivot from fiscal support, researchers tell Fed conference
- Fed's Kaplan says labor shortages may persist
- Fed's Mester says taper should begin this year, end middle of next
- Fed's Harker says he still supports tapering sooner rather than later
- Exclusive-Fed's Bostic says 'reasonable' to begin bond-buying taper in October
- Bigger trouble developing in Japan, Australia:
- Japan's July factory output to fall as Delta variant spreads in Asia: Reuters poll
- Australia retail sales plunge in July, economy set to shrink
- S&P 500, Nasdaq nab all-time closing highs as Powell soothes taper fears
Over the last couple of months, we've been featuring our favorite sources of market data and news at the end of the weekly editions of the S&P 500 chaos series. Obviously, there are a lot more than what we've featured, so if you're reading this article on a site that RSS news feed and allows comments, please point to your favorites - we're always on the hunt for high quality news and data sites!
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