The outlook for the quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) has substantially improved in the month since our previous snapshot?
Here is our summary of how the outlook for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed since our 15 April 2026 snapshot:
- 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.04 to $19.81 per share
- 2026-Q3: Increase of $0.46 to $20.94 per share
- 2026-Q4: Increase of $0.47 to $20.85 per share
- 2027-Q1: Increase of $0.40 to $22.14 per share
- 2027-Q2: Increase of $1.13 to $21.19 per share
The following chart shows how expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share changed in the month from 15 April 2026 to 15 May 2026.
The large change in the forecast value for the most distant future quarter of 2027-Q2 is typical of the kind of volatility we see in dividend futures after the data for a new quarter first becomes available. Based on just the increases seen for all the other future quarters however, May 2026 saw one of the strongest month-over-month improvements in the S&P 500's dividend outlook in years.
Ready to find out more about dividend futures data? If this is your first exposure to the S&P 500's quarterly dividend futures, be sure to read the following section that explains what this data is communicating about the future for the index' dividends.
More About Dividend Futures Data
For this series, we take a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.
Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. For example, as determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2026-Q2 began on Saturday, 21 March 2026 and will end on Friday, 19 June 2026. Since the expectations for this quarter's dividend payouts can change all the way up to that final date, it qualifies as a future quarter.
Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.
Dividend futures data is important for more than just what they project will be a future quarter's dividend payout. They represent the quantified expectations investors have for the future income they will realize from holding their investments, which in turn, affects how investors set current day stock prices. How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in current day stock prices is described by this math.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.
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Closing values for previous trading day.
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