Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income for June 2026 is $88,110, a $370 (or 0.4%) decrease from the firm's initial estimate of $88,480 for May 2026.
Here are screenshots of the interactive charts Motio Research provides to visualize trends in the U.S.' median household income. The first chart presents the firm's Household Income Index, which is based on a three-month moving average that sets the period of January 2010 through March 2010 at a value of 100. The second chart presents their monthly median household income estimates in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) terms for the period from January 2010 through June 2026.
Monthly Household Income Index
Median Household Income Estimates
Motio Research offered the following analysis of the month-over-month decline in their survey-based median household income estimate:
The U.S. Real Median Household Income Index fell to 118.9. Nominal median household income also declined, falling 0.3% to $88,110. The real estimates are expressed in June 2026 dollars using Chained CPI-U; the series are seasonally adjusted three-month averages, and the index is set to 100 in March 2010.
Year-over-year change is Motio’s principal measure of household-income direction and momentum. Real household-income growth had strengthened from 2.3% in March to 2.7% in April before easing to 2.6% in May. The full percentage-point decline in June sharply interrupted that stronger trajectory.
Although larger one-month declines in the real-income level occurred in May 2010 and January 2021, both took place during contractionary or pandemic-disrupted phases of the household-income series. June’s combination of a 0.5% decline in the level and a full percentage-point loss of year-over-year momentum represents the largest simultaneous weakening in the two measures recorded during an established expansion phase of the series.
“One month of weakness does not establish a turning point, and we would caution against interpreting it as one,” said Matías Scaglione, Co-Founder and Principal Economist at Motio Research. “June nevertheless warrants attention because both the level and momentum of real household income weakened substantially during an established upswing. Whether this reflects temporary volatility or the beginning of a broader deterioration in household-income conditions is the question the next several releases will help answer.”
Analyst's Notes
Political Calculations produces monthly median household income estimates using an alternate methodology that complements Motio Research's survey-based estimates. In June 2026, Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income is $87,934. This estimate is $291 (or 0.3%) higher than our initial estimate of $87,643 for May 2026's median household income.
The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through May 2026.
Political Calculations' June 2026 estimate is $176 (0.2%) below Motio Research's estimate of $88,110 for the month, which largely closes the gap we've observed between the two sets of estimates since Motio Research's estimates surged upward in July 2025.
For the latest in our coverage of median household income in the United States, follow this link!
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 July 2026. Accessed: 30 July 2026.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 July 2026. Accessed: 30 July 2026.
Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.
Labels: median household income
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